DATE=11/7/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=RUSSIA/CHECHNYA/POL
NUMBER=5-44717
BYLINE=PETER HEINLEIN
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Senior Russian generals have served notice
that they will not be stopped short of a complete
military victory in Chechnya. Moscow Correspondent
Peter Heinlein reports military commanders appear to
be acting independently in the absence of strong
political leadership in the Kremlin.
TEXT: President Boris Yeltsin cut short a Black Sea
vacation and flew back to Moscow last week amid
growing indications he has lost control of the armed
forces.
With a chorus of international criticism of the war in
Chechnya ringing in his ears, Mr. Yeltsin and other
political leaders were reported to be considering
talks with Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov.
But senior Russian military officers, in a series of
blunt public statements, have made clear they will
have none of it. General Vladimir Shamanov, commander
of the western group forces in Chechnya, was quoted as
saying if an order came to stop the current army
offensive -- there would be a massive defection of
officers, including generals.
/// OPT /// In an interview with the Nezavizimaya
Gazeta newspaper, General Shamanov suggested any move
by the Kremlin to halt the campaign in Chechnya would
push the country to the brink of civil war. /// END
OPT ///
At a news conference Friday, deputy army Chief of
Staff General Valery Manilov denied a rift between the
Kremlin and the military. At the same time, he told
reporters -- a negotiated settlement in Chechnya is
only possible after terrorists are destroyed or
neutralized.
Political analyst Victor Kremenyuk of Moscow's U-S-
A/Canada Institute says the generals have made clear
they will not tolerate political interference, even
from the commander in chief.
/// KREMENYUK ACT //
Several times on T-V one could watch and notice
generals were saying "We are not going to be pushed
around. We are not going to stop this operation at
any signal from anyone." So I think now this is the
problem of who runs the war, and the military are very
firm in saying "we are not going to let anyone,
including the president, interfere with the war".
/// END ACT ///
Some media reports have suggested President Yeltsin
might try to regain control by firing Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin, the chief architect of the war. But
Mr. Kremenyuk says with public opinion solidly in
favor of the war, President Yeltsin may find that
dismissing the popular prime minister is impossible.
/// 2ND KREMENYUK ACT ///
If Mr. Putin uses the current situation to enjoy as
much support from the military as possible, then of
course he may become an untouchable. The war in
Chechnya has made the Russian military a political
force.
/// END ACT ///
Russian television commentator Masha Slonim says Mr.
Yeltsin's political weakness has created a dangerous
vacuum that could be filled by the generals.
/// SLONIM ACT ///
It could be the first stage of, not a military coup,
but a military takeover, and they are testing the
ground, how far can they go, how weak is the political
side of the authority.
/// END ACT ///
With President Yeltsin's political strength at a low
ebb, it is becoming increasingly apparent that he
could not stop the current military offensive in
Chechnya even if he wanted to.
In a Saturday editorial, the "Moscow Times" newspaper
commented -- it is not clear exactly who is in charge
of whom.but at a minimum, Russia's generals seem to
have won an unprecedented amount of autonomy for the
war. (SIGNED)
NEB/PFH/DW/RAE
07-Nov-1999 12:02 PM EDT (07-Nov-1999 1702 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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