DATE=10/26/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=RUSSIA/CHECHNYA/CRITICISM
NUMBER=5-44616
BYLINE=NICK SIMEONE
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: The prospect of another full-scale war in
Chechnya is prompting Western governments to issue
statements of concern over Russian tactics against
rebels in the breakaway republic. Last week's bombing
of a market in Grozny killed scores of people and
brought blunt criticism from the European Union and
the United States. But as correspondent Nick Simeone
reports from Washington, there appears to be little
appetite among outside powers to intervene in the
conflict with anything more than public complaints.
TEXT: At a European Union ministers' meeting in
Finland last week, the president of the European
Parliament rose to express shock over the death toll
in Chechnya, charging the Russian government with
violating both the law and human rights. From
Washington came more concern, with Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright calling the latest turn of events
deplorable and ominous and saying she is not satisfied
by what she has been told by Russian Foreign Minister
Igor Ivanov.
/// ALBRIGHT ACT ///
He took on board what I said but I can't say
that I was particularly encouraged by his
response.
/// END ACT ///
But as the Chechen war deepens, neither the Clinton
administration nor any other Western government
appears ready to publicly confront Moscow with
anything beyond expressions of concern. Russia's
second military intervention in Chechnya this decade
has strong domestic support. In fact, public approval
ratings for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin have soared
since young Russian soldiers were deployed to battle
Chechen fighters who Moscow calls terrorists and
suspects in a series of deadly apartment bombings. A
former political counselor at the U-S embassy in
Moscow, Thomas Graham, explains why.
/// GRAHAM ACT ///
Across the political spectrum, people want to
demonstrate Moscow has both the political will
and the capacity to reassert its control across
the country. This is particularly important for
the Russian political elite coming after a year
of what I think could be described justly as
humiliation, both the financial collapse, their
inability to have a major influence over NATO
strategy in Kosovo; and they want to demonstrate
they can in fact carry out some sort of
effective action and defend their own territory.
/// END ACT ///
U-S officials are telling Moscow that if the Russian
military returns to the brutal tactics employed in
Chechnya earlier this decade - including
indiscriminate shelling and direct attacks on
civilians - Moscow will pay a price in relations with
the West.
Still, Moscow presses on, undaunted by criticism of
its attempts to end a rebel campaign to create an
independent Islamic state along Russia's southern
fringe. It is an intervention that has haunting
similarities to the disastrous war that ended three
years ago when Russian forces leveled Grozny in
attempt to crush a Chechen drive for independence.
But this time, a Russian victory in Chechnya could
come at a high cost, according to Stanford University
political science professor Michael McFaul.
/// McFaul ACT ///
There's no doubt in my mind there's going to be
a quagmire there no matter what. This is not
going to be a short operation. If the Russians
decide to stay, the Chechens are going to fight
not years, perhaps decades.
/// END ACT ///
Experts say the war is popular among the Russian
people because Chechens have long been branded crooks
and terrorists. For that reason, former American
diplomat Charles Fairbanks wonders whether the Clinton
Administration's strategy of issuing complaints about
Russian tactics may be counterproductive.
/// FAIRBANKS ACT ///
I'm puzzled by the fact that we are constantly
meeting with (Prime Minister) Putin and then
giving public statements to the effect that we
gave him a tongue lashing about Chechnya which I
think does him good right now at home.
/// END ACT ///
// OPT // But if the war in Chechnya earlier this
decade is any example, Prime Minister Putin will have
to come up with a plan for subduing Chechnya - without
a huge cost to the Russian military - if he is
planning to stake his political future on success in a
region where his predecessors have failed. Again,
Former Moscow embassy analyst Thomas Graham.
/// GRAHAM ACT OPT ///
If indeed, a large number of conscripts begin to
die in a ground operation, we're going to find
the popular support will plummet very rapidly.
In fact, there are already polls that suggest
that at least a quarter of the population is
opposed to the operation in Chechnya.
/// END OPT ACT ///
So what options remain for the West? Unlike crises in
Kosovo and in East Timor, Russia's veto at the United
Nations Security Council rules out any chance of U-N
intervention. William Ury took part in peace talks
between Russia and Chechnya two years ago and believes
there is a role the United States could play in
resolving the conflict.
/// URY ACT ///
One, is to show our disapproval, but more
constructively, to get the United Nations or the
OSCE - The Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe - involved to convene an
on-going conference on the Caucasus, not just on
Chechnya because all these issues are inter-
related, and this war could very likely lead to
unrest in Dagestan, Ingushetia and even in the
heart of Russia.
/// END ACT ///
But short of issuing an ultimatum to Moscow, U-S
officials say the only direct leverage they may have
is carefully applied diplomatic pressure - reminding
Russia that its actions in Chechnya could damage its
efforts at closer ties with the West. (SIGNED)
NEB/NJS/JP
26-Oct-1999 16:57 PM EDT (26-Oct-1999 2057 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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