"The Generals Are Prepared To Carry Out any Order,
but They Don't Want to Conquer Chechnya for the Time Being"
by Obshchaya Gazeta Military Columnist Viktor Litovkin
Moscow Obshchaya Gazeta 30 Sep 1999
The cordon sanitaire around Chechnya is becoming increasingly solid.
The military personnel, who are carrying out the order of their
Supreme Commander-in-Chief - President Boris Yeltsin and Government Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin, are concentrating enormous forces on the borders
of the rebellious republic. As of today, the most powerful 3rd Motorized
Rifle Division from Nizhniy Novgorod (10,850 soldiers and officers, 251
tanks - mainly T-80s, 494 armored combat vehicles, and 134 artillery
pieces according to the table of authorization and equipment) has been
transferred to Stavropol Kray and Ingushetiya to the 205th Independent
Motorized Rifle Brigade from Budennovsk (4,076 soldiers and officers, 50
T-72 tanks and 191 armored vehicles, including 33 BTR-80s [armored
transport vehicles] and BMPs [armored personnel vehicles], and 23
artillery pieces according to the table of authorization and equipment),
to the motorized rifle brigades and regiments from Vladikavkaz and
Prokhladnyy, the 7th Airborne Division from Novorossiysk, and internal
troops units.
The 20th Motorized Rifle Division from Volgograd (10,884 men, 93 T-72
tanks, 340 armored combat vehicles, and 99 artillery pieces) has been
added to the 136th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade from Buynaksk
(3,762 soldiers and officers, 32 tanks and 237 armored combat vehicles,
and 24 artillery pieces) and to the internal troops units in Dagestan.
That is without taking into account the naval infantry battalions from
the Northern, Baltic, and Pacific fleets with the combat vehicles
attached to them, the regiments from Taman Motorized Rifle and
Kantemirovka Tank Division from the Moscow area, and the battalions of
the heavy artillery brigades...
Of course, not all of them are located directly in the "cordon
sanitaire" but that, of course, is an enormous force against
10,000-12,000 guerrillas with hundreds of armored combat vehicles and
twinned air defense systems, and several hundred antitank missile
systems. All the more so that Russian Air Force aircraft (Su-25 ground
attack aircraft, Su-24 frontal aviation bombers, and Su-24MR and An-30
reconnaissance aircraft) are decreasing that combat potential on a daily
basis.
Russian aircraft conduct 50-55 sorties each day, photograph Chechen
territory, and conduct strikes using laser-guided missiles and guided
bombs against ammunition and POL [petroleum, oil, and lubricants] dumps,
guerrilla camps and concentrations, petroleum processing plants, radar
sites...
In Air Force Commander-in-Chief Colonel-General Anatoliy Kornukov's
words, more than 1,700 aircraft sorties (of them, 1,300 combat sorties)
have already been carried out, and 2,000 guerrillas, more than 250
long-term fortifications, approximately 150 terrorist detachment bases
and areas of concentration, over 60 motor vehicles and armored vehicles
have been destroyed, 30 bridges have been destroyed, and six radio relay
stations and four radar sites have been put out of commission.
Obstructions have been created in 10 mountain passes and approximately
250 kilometers of mountain roads have been destroyed or mined.
The general stated that his pilots have not conducted a single strike
against Chechnya's populated areas and they will not start doing that,
even if the guerrillas hide there. (According to a Radio Liberty
broadcast, a Chechen school was subjected to bombing. But the Air Force
command authorities refute that. - V.L.). The goal of the air
operations, said the commander-in-chief, is to deprive the terrorists of
the slightest possibility to resume attacks on the lands that border the
republics and also the complete destruction of the bandit armies.
But it is not known how that will be done without a ground operation.
According to the canons of military science, victory is achieved only
when your soldiers have occupied enemy territory, and in no other way.
But it is unclear whether one can also call Chechen land "enemy
territory". And it is also not understood precisely who that
"enemy" is. If they are bandits, then they don't have
"territory" and not a regular army but only the militia and
internal troops can score a victory over them.
Nevertheless, not only troops and generals are tightening the ring of
the blockade around Chechnya. The Military News Agency reports that the
leadership of Georgia and Azerbaijan has warned through diplomatic
channels about the unacceptability of looking the other way while local
public organizations and funds and the Mujaheddin from Pakistan,
Afghanistan, and other countries assist in supplying the terrorists with
weapons and money. Otherwise, Military News Agency sources assert that
Russia has promised to open the border with Abkhaziya, to halt the
transportation of Caspian oil across its territory, and to prevent the
construction of oil pipelines across other countries.
Russian Armed Forces General Staff personnel explained to an Obshchaya
Gazeta military columnist: all of these steps are being undertaken to
cause a crisis of political, economic, and clan interests within Chechen
society and to nudge groups, which are hostile to each other, toward
combat operations against each other, and then it will be much easier and
safer to resolve the problem of the rebellious republic. I sensed the
following from the conversations with my interlocutors: General Staff
personnel understand that they need to act very accurately and precisely
in order not to cross that invisible line, through excessive force
pressure, beyond which the clan armies, which are hostile toward each
other, will not weaken but, on the contrary, will unite against a common
enemy.
Time will tell whether or not that will happen. But serious military
personnel prefer to call the current militant statements with regard to
the guerrillas, both by the prime minister and also by the minister of
defense, the deputies of the chief of the General Staff, and the Air
Force commander-in-chief, nothing other than the psychological
indoctrination of the guerrillas and Russia's population. Ministry of
Defense personnel say that the Army is a surgical instrument. It will be
totally prepared today or in the next few weeks to conduct some or other
military operation, even a ground operation.
But whether or not it will be conducted - not generals but reserve
colonels - the country's president and prime minister - will make that
decision. So far, the Army has not been tasked with that mission.
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