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DATE=9/9/1999 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT TITLE=EAST TIMOR - INDONESIA NUMBER=5-44231 BYLINE=NICK SIMEONE DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: Questions hang over the future of East Timor, just days after its people voted overwhelmingly to break away from Indonesia in a United Nations organized referendum. Like hundreds of thousands of civilians, most of the United Nations staff in the capital Dili have been forced to flee, unable to supervise the post-referendum period because of on- going attacks by allied militias backed by the Indonesian military, as well as the burning and looting much of the capital, Dili. Correspondent Nick Simeone, who just returned from East Timor, takes a look at the tragic turn of events in East Timor and whether anything short of a military invasion can restore peace. TEXT: The outside world appears to have little leverage to stop the violence now convulsing East Timor. Neither the United Nations nor any single country appears willing to dispatch troops to the remote territory to restore order as long as the Indonesian government refuses to allow an outside peace keeping force to enter. Indonesian President B-J Habibie promised the military would maintain order in the disputed territory before and after the historic August 30th referendum. But the military's unwillingness or inability to stop the violence is raising questions in capitals as far away as Washington about who may hold ultimate power in Jakarta. Last year's resignation of President Suharto - and national elections this past June -- have rendered President Habibie a transitional leader - far weaker than his predecessor -- and one who analysts say the military may be willing to exploit. Diplomats also say there is reluctance to put further pressure on Jakarta over East Timor at a time when the world's most populous Muslim nation is undergoing a fragile political transition - as well as recovering from Asia's worst economic crisis. Some observers even question whether an important ally like Indonesia and its more than 200-million people should be denied economic assistance because of events in East Timor, a remote region of little, if any strategic importance to the rest of the world. For two decades, East Timor has been the scene of one of the world's most remote struggles for independence. But a long-running guerrilla war was supposed to have ended with the August 30th referendum. Instead, the vote has had the opposite effect -- unleashing new violence that threatens to deny the East Timorese people their wish to see the former Portuguese colony become the world's newest country. Still, despite the appearance of anarchy, the violence in East Timor may very well have an intended goal: Analysts say the army-backed killings in the territory may be a deliberate warning to pro-independence movements in Indonesia's other restive provinces such as Aceh and Irian Jaya not to try to go the route of East Timor. (SIGNED) NEB/NJS/TVM/PT 09-Sep-1999 18:09 PM LOC (09-Sep-1999 2209 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .





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