Military

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

INDONESIA: "East Timor, Arena Of Foreign Interests"

Armed Forces' ABRI maintained (8/24): "[Foreign NGOs'] primary interest is that East Timor is liberated from Indonesia...[through the efforts of] the United Nations Mission in East Timor (UNAMET), which is simply an extension of certain foreign countries. The fact that the situation in East Timor became dangerous after [UNAMET's] arrival makes that obvious. Perhaps the situation has been fabricated to justify deploying UN troops there.... The question of East Timor should be settled by the East Timorese themselves. They have been offered freedom or autonomy. Yet, given external influences and deceptions, [the process] is perceived as unfair. We hope the East Timorese can distinguish the good [from the bad] for the sake of true peace, security and prosperity. Haven't the East Timorese enjoyed the happiness they have shared with the brothers and sisters of Indonesia for 24 years? Hopefully, the East Timorese will all ponder these matters to avert conversion of the region into a new center of imperialism and foreign interests in the archipelago."

"Security First"

In the view of the leading, independent, English-language Jakarta Post (8/24): "Senator Tom Harkin is not alone in calling on the UN to send a peacekeeping force to East Timor to ensure security during and after the August 30 ballot.... But Harkin's recommendation might as well be a voice in the wilderness as far as the Indonesian government is concerned. For Jakarta, a UN peacekeeping force in East Timor is not in the cards, and never has been. The agreement Indonesia signed with Portugal and the UN in May stipulates that reponsibility for the security in the runup...rests with the Indonesian government.... With less than a week before balloting, the idea of disarming the warring camps appears to have been dropped, or put aside, as UNAMET and the Indonesian government forge ahead with preparations. Given that the hostile sides are still fully armed, we are left with disturbing misgivings about what will follow the vote. Will the loser, whichever side that may be, graciously accept the result, or will it turn its weapons on the winner? Since the Indonesian government insists on being fully in charge of the security situation, it also will have to go it alone in shouldering the responsibility if violence erupts after the ballot."

"Don't Interfere"

The government-oriented, English-language Indonesian Observer averred (8/24): "Senator Tom Harkin made an uncalled-for statement when he demanded the UN send an armed peacekeeping force to East Timor.... We are wondering if the U.S. senator is conscious of the fact that by proposing such a demand, he is actually intervening in the internal affairs of Indonesia."

"Independent Commission On Aceh"

Ruling Golkar Party's Suara Karya held (8/24): "An independent team on Aceh has been established. This team surely will concentrate on the numerous violent acts that have stirred chaos in Aceh. We hope this team will do its utmost to look into the problem in a thorough manner. The most important thing is to follow up. The Aceh question will not end with statements and recommendations. The most important thing is reaching a joint commitment to create the sense of safety and justice that the Acehnese have long desired."

"Behind The East Timor Polls"

Pro-government, Muslim intellectual Republika emphasized (8/23): "As the polls approach, the preference of the majority of East Timorese is still unclear. However, the UN plan to form a four-year transition government gives the impression it expects a victory for pro-independence groups. The United States is also considering deploying marines in East Timor.... This plan reflects the United States' ill-concealed enthusiasm about East Timor. Meanwhile, the tripartite talks mention nothing about UN peacekeeping troops. Therefore, the [possible] presence of U.S. marines can be viewed as the implementation of gunboat diplomacy to provide a 'protective umbrella' for pro-independence groups and a warning for pro-special autonomy groups. If this comes to pass--although in violation of the three-way agreement--it will certainly be detrimental to Indonesia."

"Too Little, Too Late"

The government-oriented, English-language Indonesian Observer stated (8/23): "It is necessary for the government to come forward with a bold plan containing sufficient original ideas to lure the [separatists in Aceh] back to the conference table. The package of proposals conveyed through the independent commission and aimed at forming a basis for negotiations will most likely fail to achieve its purpose, because it has too little substance and it is also too late."

"East Timor: Waiting For Pandora's Box?"

The leading, independent Jakarta Post carried this op-ed piece (8/18) by Aboeprijadi Santoso, who asserted: "[East Timor] should...be viewed as a Pandora's box which time and again tends to open whenever an outside force meddles without regards to the inhabiting people.... To let East Timor be an independent neighbor would fully expose the army's past atrocities and do a great damage to its esprit de corps. The answer, therefore, is--alas--violence with impunity.... The UN direct ballot will hopefully end the tragic Pandora's box cycle."

"East Timor Polls--A Possible Foreign Conspiracy"

Pro-government, Muslim intellectual Republika featured this op-ed piece by T. May Rudy, who wrote (8/9): "UNAMET normally calls the East Timorese supporters of the pro-Indonesia groups as 'pro-integration,' and the pro-separationists as 'pro-independence.' Is it really true that East Timor is not already independent? Apparently not to some. Even Assistant Secretary Stanley Roth, during his trip to East Timor and in his meeting with the governor of East Timor, used the term 'pro-separatist,' not 'pro-independence.'... The best thing to do would be to try to achieve an honest...and fair reconciliation between the party that supports...special autonomy status, and the one that wants separation...from Indonesian territory. Without reconciliation, power-fighting may occur, along with fighting to obtain better business opportunities (to become compradors), which will only aggravate the situation. All the more so with the possibility of external conspiracies, either by a [foreign] government or by companies which want to exploit [the territory]. This is normally called neo-colonialization. East Timor might become a sphere of U.S. influence, just as Kuwait is at present after the United States defeated Iraq in 1991. Or Australia might use East Timor as a buffer zone to deter threats to its security from the north."

"Credibility At Risk"

The government-oriented, English-language Indonesian Observer contended (8/9): "It is a public secret that the militias have been instructed to make life difficult for the group seeking independence from Indonesia, and that they have been even been encouraged to attack UNAMET personnel on the grounds that [UNAMET] is acting in favor of the independence group and against the pro-integration groups....

"What is the purpose of this offer [of independence] if it appears that behind the screen Indonesia is carrying out all sorts of machinations to make sure East Timor remains part of Indonesia? What is the use of a referendum, if Indonesia is secretly busying itself trying to torpedo the plan, thereby risking clashes between the opposing camps which will lead to the loss of many lives? If we carry on with those activities, our credibility as a nation will disappear. Over the past several months, according to Reuters, pro-Indonesia militias have terrorized much of the countryside in an effort to intimidate potential voters. It is perhaps better for us to call the whole thing off, if we do not want East Timor to become independent, rather than play a game of cat-and-mouse."

"America's Warning Could Affect The Economy"

In the view of business-oriented Bisnis Indonesia (8/8): "The Indonesian government must immediately take on the Aceh question in a serious manner and should remember that the U.S. warning about the Aceh problem could have an economic effect, according to political expert A.S. Hikam [of the Indonesian Academy of Sciences]. Hikam said it is not unusual for the American government to link economic issues to political problems after speaking out in such a serious manner. Speaking in Semarang on Saturday, Hikam said, 'We are simply waiting for the Indonesian government to take the Aceh problem seriously, since they need to listen to what the United States is saying about its concerns there.'"

"New Dimension For The Aceh Issue"

Business-oriented Bisnis Indonesia held (8/7): "The United States has called on the Indonesian government to make a strong effort to begin a dialogue with Acehnese leaders in order to lessen tensions in the province. We note that this comment is the first official statement from any foreign country since the problems in Aceh began to escalate recently. Nevertheless, that does not mean that the international community has not been paying attention to this issue.... The EU has also started to investigate the case of Aceh.... The important thing is not to just try to prevent international 'intervention' in Indonesia's domestic affairs, but to also address this issue now, because we are sure that only with peaceful dialogue can the Aceh question be resolved without causing new problems...to arise in the next few days."

"Foreign Provocation In Aceh"

Pro-government, Islamic-oriented Pelita held (8/6): "In the past few months, Aceh has been heating up.... We have no idea whether this is just naturally happening or whether there is a particular scenario behind it.... We need to emphasize that it is not impossible that particular international powers join in this game. There are clear indications that the provocateurs in various circles, from the lowest level to the top, have been trained abroad. Meanwhile, the top leader controls the movement from a European country. It seems that the widening problem of Aceh is connected with subversive network entities abroad, the ones which also provoked the East Timor question. A U.S. Senate hearing in March 1992, which raised the death of a U.S. journalist in Dili in 1991, also developed the thoughts of the community who claim themselves as the champions of human rights...issues in Aceh and Irian Jaya.... We believed that the government, including the Indonesian security forces, have made the best efforts for the best solution to Aceh."

"Existence And Integrity Of UNAMET"

Independent Suara Pembaruan contended (8/4): "We have no idea how the UN designed the system and mechanism to eliminate UNAMET personnel known to be close to Portugal and East Timor and, likewise, those having associated with Indonesia or ASEAN. Surely, it is very difficult to avoid the overshadowing interests of particular parties like NGOs or particular countries like Australia or the United States."

AUSTRALIA: "Australia Should Take The Lead"

The liberal Melbourne Age's editorial held (8/10): "Whatever the truth behind the suggestion that the United States has considered sending troops to East Timor, it should be Australia rather than the United States that takes the lead."

PHILIPPINES: "Indonesia A Test For ASEAN"

Columnist Nelson Navarro contended in the independent Manila Standard (8/2): "What ultimately happens in Indonesia, the biggest ASEAN power of all, may be the key to the organization's future, if it has any at all. Provided a stable government can be set up, probably with the alliance of Megawati Sukarnoputri and General Wiranto, the country could yet be put back on the road of stability. The first litmus test will have to be a peaceful settlement of separatist problems in East Timor and Aceh. Until then, it is much safer and less risky for the ASEAN potentates to dwell on the sweet promises of youth, the protection of the environment and the flowering of the arts. With no real power game to play, they can at least score some brownie points by trying to be sensitive."

THAILAND: "Still Not Too Late To Send In Peacekeepers"

The lead editorial of the independent, English language Nation held (8/25): "It may be too late to send armed peacekeepers before the Monday vote [in East Timor], given the infamous inertia of the UN bureaucracy. Deploying thousands of troops from neighboring countries could take weeks, and yes, the UN does not normally deploy peacekeepers without the green light from Washington, which has been unusually quiet on the subject. It is surprising that the United States, which was so missile-happy in Yugoslavia, should be so slow in responding to the growing mayhem in East Timor. Nevertheless, better late than never. Just about everyone is warning that East Timor is a bloodbath waiting to happen. We must heed that warning. In Rwanda the world sat on its hands despite numerous warnings of possible bloodletting. We cannot and must not let it happen again, this time to East Timor."

"Time To Put A Stop To Aceh Killings"

The top-circulation, moderately conservative, English-language Bangkok Post had this lead editorial (8/7): "Now that the UN has people on the ground in East Timor and the focus of peace is on Indonesia as a whole, the world community should now address the Aceh question. The UN must take the lead and instigate dialogue between Jakarta and [the Free Aceh Movement.]... [The UN] set a successful precedent when it brought Portugal, Jakarta and...East Timorese leaders...together.... Regardless of the outcome of the upcoming vote on independence in that province, many hundred of lives have been saved. If there has ever been a time to seriously address the situation in Aceh since 1976, now it is that time."

VIETNAM: "Buying Votes"

Ho Chi Minh City's Communist Party Sai Gon Giai Phong (Saigon Liberated) featured this lead editorial (8/22): "It has been reported that the Portuguese side has promised funds to East Timor for at least five years if the East Timorese vote for independence. Portugal's government has offered this great amount of money to fuel the separatists in East Timor only ten days before the ballot. This is considered an act of vote buying and it is widely publicized by the Western propaganda machine. Let's put aside the scheme the former Portugal colonists are planning when they provide support for the East Timor separatists to discuss the fact that East Timor is still an integral part of Indonesia. Should the actions of a country using money to buy votes be seen as an specific expression of democracy, or an intervention into the internal affairs of another country by the West?"

"Are U.S.Troops In East Timor Possible?"

The lead editorial of Ho Chi Minh City's Communist Party Sai Gon Giai Phong (Saigon Liberated) pointed out (8/12): "U.S. military officials in talks with their Australian counterparts revealed the possibility of sending U.S. armed forces to East Timor if the conflict there continues to escalate.... This proves the announcement of President Bill Clinton after the Balkan war that the United States will interfere in any conflict in the world.... As a result, concerns about setting a dangerous precedent that allows a powerful country to interfere in the internal affairs of a sovereign state have come true!... Despite promises that the United States has no intention of establishing a unipolar world, its actions show that the United States is steering the world toward a unipolar order. One can see the presence of the U.S troops all around the world. However, Indonesia, Portugal and the East Timorese all do not want the intervention of the United States into East Timor.... Apparently in the current atmosphere, people of all nations fear the danger of letting others interfere in their internal affairs. The lesson of Kosovo can be taken as an example."

EUROPE

HUNGARY: "East Timor, The Forgotten Colony"

Conservative Napi Magyarorszag featured this op-ed piece (8/4) by foreign affairs writer Peter G. Feher: "The turning point in [East Timor's] story came when Indonesian President Soeharto fell. The new incoming administration...committed itself to calling elections on East Timor's status. But in the meantime the government of Indonesia has brought many Muslim settlers to East Timor. These people obviously fear that the East Timorese would decide for independence. The most recently set and published date for the elections is August 30, unless the Indonesian government, for the inappropriate reason of public security, postpones the elections."

SPAIN: "Indonesia, Act I"

Liberal El Pais noted (8/4): "After two months' delay...the results of Indonesia's first democratic elections in two generations...were finally announced by President Habibie...although they had already become known to everyone. Thirty-four percent of the vote went to opposition leader Megawati Sukarnoputri...and 22 percent to the ruling Golkar Party.... The rules of the game demand that Sukarnoputri be given a chance to govern. But all indications are that Sukarno's daughter, who was opposed by numerous Muslim groups because she is a woman...will not be able to reach office without the support of the military under the command of General Wiranto. In the coming crucial months--during which a referendum on the future of East Timor will also take place--Indonesians will need to remain calm and rely on their good sense in order to form a stable government, one that is able to apply itself to rebuilding the country's devastated economy and heal the deep wounds opened by poverty and religious and ethnic rivalries. Whether this will come to pass depends upon the ability of the leading actors in this national drama to consolidate the gains of the democratic experiment that began just over a year ago with Soeharto's fall from power."

SOUTH ASIA

INDIA: "Tough Battle Ahead For Megawati"

The centrist Times of India featured this analysis (8/5) by Harvey Stockwin, who wrote from Hong Kong: "The Indonesian general election...result was still far from conclusive and interim President B.J. Habibie...might yet manage to win a full term in his own right. A third possibility is that Megawati and Habibie might end up cancelling each other out, and that a compromise consensus would be formed around another as yet unknown personality.

"The basic uncertainty stems from the fact that no party won a clearcut majority at the polls.... What complicates matters for Megawati and Gus Dur--and conversely encourages the hopes of President Habibie--is the stronger than expected showing of the ruling Golkar Party. Habibie's strongest card however is the fact that he is the first president to come from the Outer Islands. Soeharto chose him as vice president because he thought that the Javanese would never accept a non-Javanese president. Habibie, whatever else he has achieved, has at least demolished that myth. All told, Megawati's path to the presidency is not going to be easy and she will not be able to trust in nostalgia for her father's rule, and dislike of Soeharto, to be enough to carry her through.... Ironically, so far Habibie would appear to have the better reformist credentials. If Megawati is to become the fourth president for Indonesia, she will have to display more of the political skills which she will also need if she is to govern Indonesia successfully."

PAKISTAN: "Trying Times For Indonesia"

An editorial in the Karachi-based, independent Dawn predicted (8/4): "The political and democratic transition ahead is critically important, not only for resolving the difficult political and economic problems facing Indonesia at the moment, but also for safeguarding the country's unity and integrity against threats of regional particularisms and communal disharmony. Only a sagacious political leadership would have the capacity to tackle these problems with the needed skill and confidence."

For more information, please contact:

U.S. Information Agency

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Telephone: (202) 619-4355

8/25/99

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