DATE=7/9/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43842
TITLE=CONGO TALKS / REACT
BYLINE=WILLIAM EAGLE
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
NOT VOICED:
INTRO: ZAMBIAN PRESIDENT FREDERICK CHILUBA ANNOUNCED FRIDAY THAT
A DRAFT PEACE ACCORD FOR CONGO-KINSHASA WILL BE SIGNED IN
SATURDAY IN LUSAKA. HOSTILITIES BETWEEN REBELS AND GOVERNMENT
ARE TO CEASE WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE SIGNING. THE 11-MONTH-OLD
CONFLICT HAS INVOLVED SEVERAL OF CONGO-KINSHASA'S NEIGHBORS.
EACH HAS ITS OWN MOTIVES FOR FIGHTING EITHER FOR OR AGAINST
CONGOLESE PRESIDENT LAURENT KABILA. FROM WASHINGTON, WILLIAM
EAGLE SPOKE TO ONE CENTRAL AFRICA SPECIALIST WHO SAYS MANY
LEADERS SCHEDULED TO ATTEND THE SIGNING CEREMONY MAY BE
QUESTIONING THE WISDOM OF GETTING INVOLVED IN THE FIRST PLACE.
TEXT: KEEPING CONGO-KINSHASA'S PRESIDENT LAURENT KABILA IN POWER
HAS COST LIVES -- AND BLED ECONOMIES. UP TO SIX OF
CONGO-KINSHASA'S NEIGHBORS ARE PROVIDING TROOPS OR LOGISTICAL
SUPPORT, INCLUDING KABILA SUPPORTERS ZIMBABWE, ANGOLA, AND
NAMIBIA. RWANDA AND UGANDA, TWO OTHER NEIGHBORS, HAVE SUPPORTED
THE REBELS OPPOSING KABILA. ALL THE COUNTRIES INVOLVED IN THE
EFFORT TO SUPPORT OR OPPOSE MR. KABILA BASED THEIR DECISION, IN
PART, ON THEIR SECURITY AND BUSINESS INTERESTS.BUT IT'S NOT
CLEAR HOW BENEFICIAL TO THEM THEIR INVOLVEMENT HAS BEEN.
IN THE CASE OF UGANDA, ONE ANALYST SAYS, PRESIDENT YOWERI
MUSEVENI'S EFFORT TO CRUSH THE CONGO-BASED REBELS MAY HAVE
ACTUALLY ERODED HIS AUTHORITY IN UGANDA.
PROFESSOR FILIP REYNTJENS (PRON. RENT'JENS) IS A PROFESSOR OF LAW
AND POLITICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ANTWERP IN BELGIUM.
// REYNTJENS ACT //
[THE UGANDAN PRESS, WHICH HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE CONGO
WAR], HAS PUBLICIZED A NUMBER OF [QUESTIONABLE]
PRACTICES [OF PUBLIC FIGURES CLOSE TO] MUSEVENI, LIKE
HIS BROTHER AND A NUMBER OF MILITARY OFFICERS.
[THEY'VE] BEEN INVOLVED IN ALL SORTS OF DEALS IN
CONGO-KINSHASA [INCLUDING THE TRADE OF] TIMBER, GOLD AND
DIAMONDS. SO [THE WAR] HAS MADE THE REGIME MORE
VULNERABLE TO CRITICISMS OF CORRUPTION AND MAFIA-LIKE
BUSINESS DEALS. IT MEANS A DECREASE IN THE LEGITIMACY
OF MUSEVENI. I THINK THE PRESIDENT UNDERSTANDS THE BEST
THING FOR UGANDA IS TO GET OUT OF THIS MESS WITHOUT
LOSING FACE.
// END ACT //
ANGOLA, UNLIKE UGANDA, HAS ALREADY WITHDRAWN MANY OF ITS TROOPS
-- AFTER IT BECAME CLEAR THEIR PRESENCE WAS NOT KEEPING
ANGOLA'S OWN CIVIL WAR FROM FLARING.
ANGOLA'S UNITA FORCES -- WHO WANT TO TOPPLE ANGOLA'S PRESIDENT,
JOSE EDUARDO DOS SANTOS -- ARE SUSPECTED OF COOPERATING WITH
RWANDA, UGANDA, AND THE ANTI-KABILA REBELS. UNITA'S SUPPLY LINES
RUN THROUGH THE CONGO, AND PRESIDENT DOS SANTOS, BY COOPERATING
WITH KABILA GOVERNMENT, HOPED TO BE ABLE TO CUT OFF THE REBELS'
SUPPLY LINES.
ZIMBABWE, ANOTHER KABILA SUPPORTER, HAS ALSO HAD QUESTIONABLE
GAINS FROM THE INTERVENTION.
PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE OF ZIMBABWE IS PERHAPS MR. KABILA'S MOST
VOCAL SUPPORTER IN SOUTHERN AFRICA. HE SENT TROOPS TO
CONGO-KINSHASA AS A MEMBER OF THE 14-NATION SOUTHERN AFRICAN
DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY. THE GROUP'S CONSTITUTION SAYS AN ATTACK
BY AN OUTSIDE AGGRESSOR AGAINST ONE MEMBER IS AN ATTACK AGAINST
ALL. MR. MUGABE IDENTIFIES RWANDA AND UGANDA AS THE HOSTILE
OUTSIDERS BEHIND THE ANTI-KABILA REBELS.
ZIMBABWE'S AIR FORCE HAS HAD LIMITED SUCCESS IN CRUSHING THE
ANTI-KABILA REBELS. PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENT MUGABE HAS
DROPPED WITH THE INCREASED NUMBER OF BODYBAGS [DEATHS] COMING
HOME. FILIP REYNTJENS SAYS THE WAR HAS ALSO TAKEN AN ECONOMIC
TOLL.
// REYNTJENS ACT //
THE DEBT WHICH KABILA'S CONGO HAD TOWARD ZIMBABWE RANGED
FROM A LOW OF 40 MILLION DOLLARS TO A HIGH OF 200
MILLION DOLLARS. ZIMBABWE'S INTERVENTION HAS BEEN
COSTING ONE MILLION DOLLARS A DAY SO EVEN IF YOU TAKE
THE HIGH ESTIMATE, 200 MILLION DOLLARS, THEY'VE NOW
SPENT NEARLY DOUBLE THAT. IF THEY DO A COST-BENEFIT
ANALYSIS NOW THEY WILL REALIZE THIS HAS BEEN MORE COSTLY
THAN WHAT THEY HOPED TO PRESERVE IN THE CONGO. // OPT
// FOR MUGABE, [THE SITUATION IS LIKE THAT FACING
PRESIDENT SLOBODAN] MILOSEVIC IN SERBIA. I THINK MUGABE
- WHO WAS NOT PARTICULARLY POPULAR BEFORE HE COMMITTED
ZIMBABWE TO WAR IN THE CONGO IS EVEN MORE UNPOPULAR
TODAY. AND THAT UNDOUBTEDLY WEAKENS HIS POSITION. //END
OPT //
// END ACT //
// OPT // WITH THE DRAFT ACCORD, PROFESSOR REYNTJENS SAYS MR.
MUGABE HAS FOR NOW ACHIEVED ONE GOAL -- KEEPING MR. KABILA IN
POWER IN CONGO-KINSHASA. BUT IT COULD BE A HOLLOW VICTORY: A
FINAL SETTLEMENT WITHIN THE CONGO WILL LIKELY INCLUDE THE DEMAND
FOR A NATIONAL DIALOGUE -- OR CONFERENCE -- THAT WOULD LEAD TO
ELECTIONS. THE TRANSITION TO THE POLLS WOULD BE SHAPED BY
COMPROMISES AMONG PRESIDENT KABILA, THE NON-ARMED OPPOSITION, AND
THE REBELS. PROFESSOR REYNTENS SAYS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF
FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS WOULD KEEP PRESIDENT KABILA IN POWER. //
END OPT //
BUT INVOLVEMENT IN CONGO-KINSHASA'S CIVIL WAR HAS NOT BEEN A
LOSING PROPOSITION FOR EVERYONE. IN THE SHORT TERM, RWANDA,
WHICH SUPPORTED THE ANTI-KABILA REBELS, MAY HAVE TEMPORARILY
SUCCEEDED IN STOPPING ITS OWN REBEL THREAT.
THE GOVERNMENT OF PAUL KAGAME -- AN ETHNIC TUTSI -- HAS BEEN
TRYING TO CURB CROSS-BORDER RAIDS FROM REBELS BASED IN CONGO
SINCE THE END OF RWANDA'S CIVIL WAR IN 1994. THE REBELS ARE
PREDOMINANTLY HUTU REMNANTS OF THE FORMER ARMED FORCES OF RWANDA
(OR F-A-R) AND OF AN ANTI-TUTSI MILITIA, THE INTERAHAMWE.
PROFESSOR REYNTJENS SAYS THE WAR -- AND THE FORCED RESETTLEMENT
OF HUTU REFUGEES WITHIN RWANDA -- HAS DAMPENED SOMEWHAT THE ARMED
REBELLION AGAINST THE KAGAME GOVERNMENT. SOME SAY THE CONGO
PEACE ACCORDS MAY AS WELL.
THE RECENT AGREEMENT CALLS FOR THE DISARMAMENT -- AND
REPATRIATION - OF THE HUTU REBELS. BUT PROFESSOR REYNTJENS DOES
NOT BELIEVE THE ACCORDS ALONE WILL BRING PEACE TO RWANDA. HE
SAYS THE RWANDAN GOVERNMENT WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO REACH A
POLITICAL AGREEMENT WITH ITS ENEMIES.
// (OPT) REYNTJENS ACT //
THE VERY GENERAL AGREEMENT ON WHAT SHOULD BE DONE AS FAR
AS THE RWANDAN FORMER GOVERNMENT ARMY AND THE
INTERAHAMWE MILITIA ARE CONCERNED IS GOING TO BE
EXTREMELY HARD TO IMPLEMENT. A NUMBER OF THOSE TROOPS
ARE STILL OPERATING NEAR RWANDA. EVEN GETTING THOSE WHO
ARE MORE OR LESS CONTROLLABLE, LIKE THE FORMER F-A-R -
WHO ARE BASICALLY PART OF THE CONGOLESE ARMY -- WILL BE
HARD TO DISARM AGAINST THEIR WILL. I WANT TO SEE
INTERNATIONAL PEACE KEEPING FORCES WILLING TO TAKE ON
TENS OF THOUSANDS OF FORMER F-A-R AND INTERAHAMWE WHO DO
NOT WISH TO BE DISARMED. THIS WILL BE COSTLY IN TERMS
OF MONEY AND LOSSES: THE [REBELS] WILL [SIMPLY]
DISAPPEAR INTO THE [FOREST]. // OPT // [ALSO] WE'VE SEEN
[A SIMILAR SITUATION] IN ANGOLA: [THE UNITA REBELS] DID
AGREE TO BE DISARMED. THEY PRETENDED TO TURN IN THEIR
WEAPONS; AND SOME OF THEIR TROOPS RETURNED TO
CONFINEMENT CAMPS. BUT MOST DID NOT; MANY [REBELS IN
EASTERN CONGO] ARE NOT GOING TO DO THAT EITHER]. UNLESS
A POLITICAL SOLUTION IS FOUND IN RWANDA, ANTI-RWANDA
REBELS] ARE GOING TO CONTINUE FIGHTING. // END OPT //
// END ACT (END OPT) //
// OPT // BESIDES RWANDA, ANOTHER WINNER FROM THE CONGO WAR MAY
BE LIBYA'S MUAMMAR GADAFFI. PROFESSOR REYNTJENS SAYS HE HAS
GAINED RECOGNITION AS A MEDIATOR ON THE CONTINENT. // END OPT
//
// OPT: REYNTJENS ACT //
ONE OF THE BREAKTHROUGHS IN THE CONGO WAR] HAS BEEN THE
MEETING HELD [UNDER GADAFFI'S LEADERSHIP] IN SIRTE,
LIBYA, WHERE HE'D INVITED THE WARRING PARTIES. THERE,
FOR THE FIRST TIME, MUSEVENI AND KABILA MET AND
SUBSCRIBED TO A PEACE DEAL; NOW THIS HAS INSTILLED SOME
MOMENTUM TO WHAT WE ARE NOW WITNESSING IN LUSAKA. BUT
MY FEELING IS THAT ALTHOUGH GADAFFI IS NOT
PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN BRINGING PEACE TO CENTRAL
AFRICA, BUT RATHER ENDING HIS OWN POLITICAL AND
DIPLOMATIC ISOLATION - IN SUBSEQUENT MEETINGS [TO SIRTE]
THAT INCLUDED RWANDA, HE HAS FORCED SOME SORT OF A
BREAKTHROUGH.
// END ACT // // END OPT //
BUT THE LUSAKA PEACE ACCORDS -- OR AN END TO CONGO'S CIVIL WAR --
MAY NOT GUARANTEE REGIONAL STABILITY. PROFESSOR REYNTJENS SAYS
IDEALLY, REGIONAL PEACE CONFERENCES -- LIKE THE ONE IN LUSAKA
THIS WEEK -- SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DOMESTIC PEACE CONFERENCES IN
OTHER COUNTRIES OF THE REGION THAT WOULD SEEK AN END TO THEIR OWN
CIVIL WARS..
BUT HE DOUBTS THAT WILL HAPPEN SOON. HE SAYS THE COUNTRIES OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AFRICA ARE ALL IN VARIOUS STAGES OF CONFLICT
AND DIALOGUE WITH INTERNAL OPPONENTS. HE SAYS IT WILL PROBABLY
TAKE MOST OF THESE COUNTRIES A WHILE TO REALIZE THAT COMPROMISE,
CONSENSUS, AND ELECTIONS ARE BETTER THAN BULLETS. (SIGNED)
NEB/WE/AG/KL
09-Jul-99 3:33 PM EDT (1933 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
