DATE=6/24/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43720
TITLE=NORTHERN IRELAND
BYLINE=LAURIE KASSMAN
DATELINE=LONDON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: LESS THAN A WEEK FROM YET ANOTHER DEADLINE, CATHOLIC AND
PROTESTANT NEGOTIATORS IN NORTHERN IRELAND SEEM JUST AS FAR AS
EVER FROM COMPROMISE OVER THE ISSUE OF DEMILITARIZING REPUBLICAN
PARAMILITARY GROUPS. CORRESPONDENT LAURIE KASSMAN IN LONDON
LOOKS AT THE PROSPECTS FOR A BREAKTHROUGH AS BRITAIN'S PRIME
MINISTER TONY BLAIR WARNS OF A RETURN TO VIOLENCE -- IF THE
NEGOTIATIONS FAIL.
TEXT: THE NEGOTIATIONS ARE FOCUSING ON THE DEADLOCK OVER
DISARMING PARAMILITARIES IN THE IRISH REPUBLICAN ARMY -- THE
I-R-A.
SO FAR, NORTHERN IRELAND'S PROTESTANT FIRST MINISTER DAVID
TRIMBLE SAYS THE I-R-A MUST START HANDING OVER ITS WEAPONS BEFORE
HE LETS ITS POLITICAL WING, SINN FEIN, JOIN THE GOVERNMENT. SINN
FEIN ARGUES THE SO-CALLED 1998 "GOOD FRIDAY" PEACE AGREEMENT DOES
NOT MAKE THAT A PRECONDITION FOR TAKING PART IN THE NEW CABINET.
LONDON HAS HAD TO POSTPONE THE TRANSFER OF HOME RULE POWERS TO
BELFAST UNTIL THE DISPUTE IS RESOLVED AND A NEW EXECUTIVE COUNCIL
IS NAMED.
BRITISH PRIME MINISTER TONY BLAIR AND IRISH PRIME MINISTER BERTIE
AHERN WILL JOIN THE NEGOTIATIONS NEXT WEEK (MONDAY) TO HELP FIND
A COMPROMISE BEFORE THE JUNE 30TH DEADLINE SET BY MR BLAIR.
BRENDAN O'LEARY MONITORS IRISH AFFAIRS AT THE LONDON SCHOOL OF
ECONOMICS. HE SEES SOME PROSPECTS FOR AGREEMENT BECAUSE OF A
SHIFT BY THE TWO PRIME MINISTERS TOWARD SINN FEIN'S
INTERPRETATION OF THE PEACE ACCORD'S TIMETABLE.
/// O'LEARY ACT ///
WHAT HAS HAPPENED IS THAT THE TWO GOVERNMENTS HAVE
ACCEPTED, IN EFFECT, SINN FEIN'S ANALYSIS OF THE LEGAL
MEANING OF THE AGREEMENT AS CORRECT -- NAMELY, FOR THE
EXECUTIVE TO BE COMPLETED IN NORTHERN IRELAND, THERE IS
NO PRE-REQUIREMENT FOR PARAMILITARIES TO ENGAGE IN PRIOR
(WEAPONS) DECOMMISSIONING.
/// END ACT ///
MR. BLAIR APPEARED TO MAKE THAT POINT IN HIS REMARKS TO
PARLIAMENT WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE TIMING OF DISARMING THE
PARAMILITARIES.
/// BLAIR ACT ///
IT IS NOT A PRECONDITION BUT A REQUIREMENT OF THE
AGREEMENT. THERE IS NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT. NOW WHAT I
WOULD LIKE THE TWO PARTIES TO DO NEXT WEEK IS TO SIT
DOWN TO WORK OUT WHEN AND HOW THAT DECOMISSIONING
HAPPENS AND WHEN AND HOW WE SET UP THE EXECUTIVE ON AN
INCLUSIVE ALL-PARTY BASIS.
/// END ACT ///
BUT PRIME MINISTER BLAIR ALSO STRESSED WHAT HE THINKS IS NEEDED
FOR THE PEACE PROCESS TO MOVE FORWARD.
/// SECOND BLAIR ACT ///
THERE ARE TWO ESSENTIAL FOUNDATION BLOCKS FOR THIS TO
WORK. ONE IS THAT EVERYONE ACCEPTS THERE IS AN
INCLUSIVE EXECUTIVE THAT INVOLVES ALL PARTIES COMMITTED
TO PEACE. AND SECOND, THERE HAS TO BE DECOMISSIONING.
//OPT// NOW MY VIEW THROUGHOUT HAS BEEN THAT SEQUENCING
IS A MATTER OF NEGOTIATION AND THAT CAN BE JUDGED
BETWEEN THE PARTIES. //END OPT//
/// END ACT //
HE WARNED OF A RETURN TO CONFLICT, IF THE DISPUTE OVER THE NEW
GOVERNMENT IS NOT RESOLVED.
ANALYST O'LEARY SAYS PROTESTANT LEADER DAVID TRIMBLE NOW IS UNDER
TREMENDOUS PRESSURE TO DROP HIS OBJECTION TO SINN FEIN'S
PARTICIPATION IN THE CABINET.
//O'LEARY ACT TWO ///
IF HE ACCEPTS THAT GOVERNMENT FORMATION SHOULD GO AHEAD
WITH SINN FEIN IN THE CABINET WITHOUT PRIOR
DECOMISSIONING, THEN HE SAVES THE AGREEMENT. HE GETS
CHANGES TO THE CONSTITUTION OF THE IRISH REPUBLIC.
UNIONISTS ARE PART OF THE GOVERNMENT AND THE
INSTITUTIONS OF THE AGREEMENT BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
/// END ACT ///
IF MR. TRIMBLE SAYS NO, THE PROTESTANT POLITICIAN AND HIS PARTY
WILL BE BLAMED FOR THE COLLAPSE. AND, THEY RISK LOSING ANY
INFLUENCE OVER FUTURE REFORMS SUCH AS REVAMPING NORTHERN
IRELAND'S POLICE FORCE AND CHANGING THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM.
MR. O'LEARY SAYS SINN FEIN IS LESS LIKELY TO BLINK IN THE
NEGOTIATIONS BECAUSE IT WILL BENEFIT FROM THE REFORMS EVEN
WITHOUT A NEW GOVERNMENT IN PLACE.
//REST OPT// NEWS EDITORIALS AND COMMENTATORS NOW PREDICT A
FACE-SAVING COMPROMISE WILL BE REACHED BY THE JUNE 30TH DEADLINE
BECAUSE NEITHER SIDE WANTS TO LOSE ITS CLOUT IN SHAPING NORTHERN
IRELAND'S POLITICAL FUTURE.
BUT MR O'LEARY, FOR ONE, SAYS A PROTESTANT BACK-DOWN ON SINN
FEIN'S ROLE IN THE GOVERNMENT WOULD HAVE TO COINCIDE WITH A
GOODWILL INITIATIVE FROM SINN FEIN TOWARD I-R-A DECOMMISSIONING.
(SIGNED)
NEB/LMK/PCF
24-Jun-99 12:21 PM EDT (1621 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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