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DATE=5/30/99
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-249993
TITLE=ISRAEL/LEBANON (L)
BYLINE=DAVID GOLLUST
DATELINE=JERUSALEM
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 
INTRO:  ISRAEL STAGED ANOTHER AIR STRIKE (SUNDAY) IN LEBANON IN 
RESPONSE TO AN ONGOING OFFENSIVE BY PRO-IRANIAN HEZBOLLAH 
GUERRILLAS AGAINST ISRAEL'S TROUBLED MILITIA ALLY IN LEBANON, THE
SOUTH LEBANON ARMY, OR S-L-A.  V-O-A'S DAVID GOLLUST HAS DETAILS 
FROM JERUSALEM.
TEXT:  THE AIR STRIKE WAS THE THIRD IN LESS THAN 24-HOURS AND 
APPEARED TO REFLECT GROWING CONCERN BY ISRAEL ABOUT THE VIABILITY
OF ITS MILITIA ALLY.
THE CHRISTIAN-LED S-L-A -- BASED IN ISRAEL'S SELF-DECLARED 
LEBANESE "SECURITY ZONE" -- HAS SUSTAINED HEAVY CASUALTIES IN 
HEZBOLLAH ATTACKS IN RECENT WEEKS.  IT IS PREPARING TO WITHDRAW 
FROM THE CHRISTIAN TOWN OF JEZZINE NORTH OF THE ZONE WHICH IT HAS
CONTROLLED FOR 14-YEARS.
HEBREW UNIVERSITY ANALYST AND FORMER ISRAELI MILITARY 
INTELLIGENCE OFFICER AVRAHAM SELLA SAYS THE S-L-A'S MORALE HAS 
BEEN SHAKEN BY THE PROMISE OF PRIME MINISTER-ELECT EHUD BARAK TO 
END ISRAEL'S PRESENCE IN LEBANON WITHIN A YEAR.
HE TOLD V-O-A THE MILITIA IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISINTEGRATION 
WHICH, IN TURN, COULD FORCE ISRAEL TO WITHDRAW FROM LEBANON 
UNILATERALLY AND NOT AS PART OF A FUTURE SECURITY DEAL NEGOTIATED
WITH SYRIA.
                    /// SELLA ACTUALITY  ///
         WHAT IS GOING TO DICTATE THE PACE OF THE ISRAELI 
         WITHDRAWAL FROM SOUTH LEBANON IS NOT GOING TO BE THE 
         PACE OF ISRAELI-SYRIAN NEGOTIATIONS OR THE SUCCESS OF 
         SUCH NEGOTIATIONS, BUT RATHER THE PACE OF DISINTEGRATION
         OF THE S-L-A.  AND I FORESEE THE SITUATION WHEN ISRAEL 
         WOULD HAVE TO LEAVE UNDER PRESSURE OF THIS 
         DISINTEGRATION, BECAUSE ISRAEL UNDER NO CONDITIONS WOULD
         BE WILLING TO TAKE OVER THE POSITIONS DESERTED BY THE 
         S-L-A.
                         /// END ACT ///
MR. SELLA COMPARED THE SITUATION OF THE S-L-A TO THAT OF THE 
SOUTH VIETNAMESE ARMY, WHICH COLLAPSED IN 1975 AFTER U-S TROOPS 
LEFT VIETNAM UNDER AN AGREEMENT WITH HANOI.
ISRAEL KEEPS ABOUT ONE-THOUSAND SOLDIERS IN THE SECURITY ZONE 
WHILE THE S-L-A -- ARMED AND FINANCED BY ISRAEL -- NUMBERS ABOUT 
25-HUNDRED MEN AND DOES MOST OF THE PATROLLING IN THE 
15-KILOMETER-WIDE BUFFER STRIP.
OUTGOING ISRAELI DEFENSE MINISTER MOSHE ARENS SAID SUNDAY HE 
EXPECTS THE S-L-A TO CARRY OUT ITS PULLBACK FROM JEZZINE WITHIN A
WEEK OR TWO. 
MR. ARENS ALSO TOLD ISRAEL'S INDEPENDENT "CHANNEL TWO" TELEVISION
HE DOES NOT RULE OUT A UNILATERAL ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL FROM LEBANON
-- IF IT WOULD SAVE LIVES AND NOT INCREASE THE SECURITY RISK FOR 
ISRAEL'S NORTHERN TOWNS.   (SIGNED)
NEB/DG/ALW/RAE
30-May-99 9:27 AM EDT (1327 UTC)
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