DATE=2/22/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42672
TITLE=EAST TIMOR (3): RENEWED CIVIL WAR?
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: OBSERVERS OF THE EAST TIMOR ISSUE MOSTLY AGREE THAT,
WITHOUT PROPER CONDITIONS IN PLACE, EAST TIMOR COULD SINK BACK
INTO A CIVIL WAR. (IN THIS LAST OF THREE REPORTS) CORRESPONDENT
STEPHANIE MANN SAYS VARIOUS PARTIES TO THE ISSUE, HOWEVER, DO NOT
AGREE ON WHAT CONDITIONS ARE NECESSARY TO AVOID RENEWED FACTIONAL
FIGHTING.
TEXT: INDONESIAN PRESIDENT B-J HABIBIE HAS SAID HE WANTS THE
ISSUE OF EAST TIMOR RESOLVED BY THE END OF THIS YEAR. AND HE HAS
SAID IF THE PEOPLE OF THE TERRITORY, WHICH INDONESIA HAS
CONTROLLED FOR THE PAST 23 YEARS, DO NOT WANT POLITICAL
AUTONOMY UNDER JAKARTA'S RULE, THEY CAN HAVE INDEPENDENCE. WHAT
THE GOVERNMENT HAS NOT MADE CLEAR IS THE MEANS THE PEOPLE OF EAST
TIMOR SHOULD USE TO DECIDE THEIR POLITICAL STATUS.
INDEPENDENCE ADVOCATES, INTERNATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS AND
MANY FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS SAY THE EAST TIMORESE PEOPLE SHOULD MAKE
THEIR CHOICE THROUGH A REFERENDUM. BUT THE GOVERNMENT IN JAKARTA
SAYS THAT IS NOT THE BEST WAY. FOREIGN MINISTER ALI ALATAS
RECENTLY EXPLAINED WHY TO REPORTERS AT THE UNITED NATIONS IN NEW
YORK.
// ALATAS ACT ONE //
A REFERENDUM OR ANY KIND OF A DECISION BY THE EAST
TIMORESE PEOPLE USING THAT KIND OF FORM OF ASSESSMENT OF
THE VIEWS IS NOT THE WAY WE THINK TO PROCEED, BECAUSE
THE INHERENT RISKS AND DANGERS IF WE EMPLOY SUCH A
METHOD ARE SUCH THAT WE MAY NOT EVEN ACHIEVE THE
RESULTS THAT WE WANT TO ACHIEVE BUT INSTEAD WILL REVERT
BACK TO FIGHTING, TO THE REOPENING OF OLD CONFLICTS AND
EVEN CIVIL WAR.
// END ACT //
// OPT // THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS ASKED THE UNITED NATIONS
TO FIND ANOTHER METHOD TO ASSESS THE VIEWS OF THE EAST TIMORESE
-- PERHAPS THROUGH INFORMAL CONSULTATIONS. // END OPT //
INDONESIA SPECIALIST ALASDAIR BOWIE SAYS THE REASON THE
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DOES NOT WANT A REFERENDUM MAY HAVE LESS
TO DO WITH A FEAR OF UNREST AND MORE TO WITH A FEAR OF
EMBARRASSMENT.
// BOWIE ACT ONE //
THE ISSUE OF REFERENDUM, IF IT IS HELD, WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF FACE FOR THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT,
NOT TO MENTION ALI ALATAS HIMSELF. I THINK THE
GOVERNMENT WANTS TO AVOID AT ALL COSTS HOLDING A
REFERENDUM IN WHICH THE PEOPLE OF EAST TIMOR WOULD IN A
VERY BLUNT AND DIRECT WAY SAY TO THE INDONESIAN
GOVERNMENT THAT THEIR OCCUPATION OF THE TERRITORY WAS
ILLEGITIMATE. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT POLICY OF THE
INDONESIANS TO AVOID HAVING AN OPEN VOTE, AN OPEN FORM
OF SELF-DETERMINATION.
// END ACT //
MR. BOWIE, A PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT GEORGE WASHINGTON
UNIVERSITY, SAYS THE CONCEPT OF FACE -- THE DESIRE TO AVOID
PUBLIC EMBARRASSMENT -- IS AN IMPORTANT PART OF POLICY-MAKING IN
INDONESIA, AND IN MANY OTHER COUNTRIES.
ANOTHER INDONESIA SPECIALIST, DONALD EMMERSON, SAYS A REAL THREAT
OF CIVIL WAR EXISTS IF EAST TIMOR GAINS INDEPENDENCE TOO SOON.
MR. EMMERSON, A PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND SOUTHEAST
ASIAN STUDIES AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN, SAYS THE INDONESIAN
GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN FINANCING AND ARMING PEOPLE IN EAST TIMOR WHO
OPPOSE INDEPENDENCE.
// EMMERSON ACT ONE //
LET'S NOT FORGET THAT THE INDONESIANS HAVE BEEN BRINGING
PEOPLE INTO EAST TIMOR FROM OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY,
MANY OF THEM MUSLIMS, MANY OF THEM FROM JAVA. AND THE
INDONESIANS HAVE ALSO BEEN STIMULATING -- EVEN TO THE
POINT, ACCORDING TO REPORTS, OF PROVIDING WEAPONS TO
INDIVIDUALS IN EAST TIMOR THAT OPPOSE INDEPENDENCE. AND
SO, IT'S A LITTLE BIT DISINGENUOUS FOR THE INDONESIAN
GOVERNMENT TO SAY, "WELL, WE'LL GIVE YOU INDEPENDENCE
AND IF THERE'S CIVIL WAR, SO BE IT."
// END ACT //
FOREIGN MINISTER ALI ALATAS DOES NOT DENY HIS GOVERNMENT HAS
PROVIDED WEAPONS TO SOME PEOPLE IN EAST TIMOR. BUT HE SAYS THAT
IS BECAUSE INDONESIA'S SECURITY FORCES ARE STRETCHED THIN BY
UNREST IN MANY PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
// ALATAS ACT TWO //
// OPT // WHAT IS HAPPENING IN INDONESIA NOW, NOT ONLY
IN EAST TIMOR, IS THAT INDEED WE ARE FACING A SEVERE
SHORTAGE OF SECURITY PERSONNEL, ESPECIALLY POLICE, IN
ORDER TO QUELL THE KIND OF LAW AND ORDER DISTURBANCES
THAT IS HAPPENING EVERYWHERE. WE ARE FACING A VERY
SERIOUS SITUATION. AND OUR POLICE FORCE, WHICH COUNTS
ONLY 190-THOUSAND PEOPLE FOR A POPULATION OF 211-MILLION
PEOPLE, DISBURSED OVER 17-THOUSAND ISLANDS, IS WOEFULLY
INADEQUATE. AND // END OPT // THEREFORE, SINCE WE CANNOT
QUICKLY OR CHEAPLY RECRUIT NEW POLICE IN A SHORT TIME,
WE HAVE DECIDED TO ORGANIZE SO-CALLED PEOPLE'S GUARDS,
PEOPLE'S MILITIA, BUT GUARDS, TO GUARD THE VILLAGES AND
THE SPECIAL AREAS IN CERTAIN URBAN AREAS, TO SELECTIVELY
ARM THEM -- NOT BY GIVING THEM ARMS TO KEEP -- BUT TO
HAVE ARMS READY FOR THEM IF THERE IS A NECESSITY. BUT
NOT ALL ARM THEM WITH GUNS, BUT WITH WOODEN STICKS AND
OTHER THINGS. AND THIS IS ALSO HAPPENING IN EAST TIMOR.
// END ACT //
MR. ALATAS DENIES REPORTS THAT WEAPONS HAVE BEEN DISTRIBUTED TO
THOUSANDS OF EAST TIMORESE, SAYING ONLY A FEW HUNDRED PEOPLE ARE
INVOLVED.
// REST OPTIONAL //
PROFESSOR BOWIE SAYS FORMATION OF THE CIVILIAN MILITIA GROUPS IS
A CONTROVERSIAL DEVELOPMENT. BUT HE SAYS HE DOES NOT BELIEVE IT
IS AN EFFORT BY THE GOVERNMENT TO PROMPT MORE FIGHTING IN EAST
TIMOR.
// BOWIE ACT TWO //
I'M NOT SURE THAT WE SHOULD LOOK AT THIS AS A GRAND
CONSPIRACY TO FOMENT A CIVIL WAR. AND I THINK WE SHOULD
LOOK AT IT IN THE BROADER CONTEXT OF PROPOSALS FOR THE
WHOLE COUNTRY TO HAVE A MILITIA, PERHAPS ARMING IT TO
SUPPORT THE ARMED FORCES, WHICH IS A VERY TROUBLING
DEVELOPMENT.
// END ACT // END OPT //
PROFESSOR EMMERSON SAYS HE IS CONCERNED THAT IF EAST TIMOR
BECOMES INDEPENDENT WITHOUT A TRANSITION PERIOD, VIOLENCE MAY
ERUPT REQUIRING A RESCUE EFFORT BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.
PROFESSOR BOWIE DISCOUNTS THAT POSSIBILITY, SAYING THAT ALTHOUGH
CONFLICT IS LIKELY, THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WILL NOT FIND
THE PROBLEM SERIOUS ENOUGH TO PROVIDE PEACEKEEPING TEAMS.
NEVERTHELESS, PROFESSOR EMMERSON SAYS THOSE PLEASED BY THE
INDONESIAN POLICY SHIFT TO ALLOW INDEPENDENCE SHOULD NOT
CELEBRATE TOO SOON, BECAUSE HE SAYS THE IMPLICATIONS COULD BE
UNFORTUNATE. (SIGNED)
NEB/SMN/KL
22-Feb-99 1:16 PM EST (1816 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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