DATE=2/22/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42671
TITLE=EAST TIMOR (2): AUTONOMY OR INDEPENDENCE
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: AFTER CONTROLLING EAST TIMOR FOR 23 YEARS, INDONESIA NOW
PROPOSES THE TERRITORY MAKE A CHOICE ABOUT ITS FUTURE. IT CAN
EITHER SELECT POLITICAL AUTONOMY UNDER INDONESIAN RULE OR
COMPLETE INDEPENDENCE. INDONESIAN PRESIDENT B-J HABIBIE SAYS HE
WANTS THE ISSUE RESOLVED BY THE END OF THE YEAR. (IN THIS SECOND
OF THREE REPORTS) CORRESPONDENT STEPHANIE MANN DISCUSSES THE
CHOICE CONFRONTING THE PEOPLE OF EAST TIMOR.
TEXT: IN RECENT WEEKS, THERE HAVE BEEN MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS
CONCERNING EAST TIMOR, WHICH INDONESIA INVADED IN 1975 AND
ANNEXED IN 1976.
FIRST, PRESIDENT B-J HABIBIE SENT HIS FOREIGN MINISTER, ALI
ALATAS, TO THE UNITED NATIONS TO NEGOTIATE WITH PORTUGAL AN
AUTONOMY PLAN FOR EAST TIMOR. // OPT // THE UNITED NATIONS DOES
NOT RECOGNIZE INDONESIA'S ANNEXATION OF THE TERRITORY AND STILL
CONSIDERS PORTUGAL THE COLONIAL AUTHORITY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
TALKS IS SCHEDULED FOR MARCH 10TH AT THE UNITED NATIONS. // END
OPT //
THEN, IN CONTRAST TO ITS EARLIER POLICY OF SUPPRESSING ALL
ADVOCATES OF INDEPENDENCE, INDONESIA RELEASED FROM PRISON EAST
TIMORESE SEPARATIST LEADER XANANA GUSMAO AND PUT HIM UNDER HOUSE
ARREST. AND THEN PRESIDENT HABIBIE MADE AN ANNOUNCEMENT THAT
INDONESIA SPECIALIST DONALD EMMERSON SAYS CAME AS A BIG SURPRISE
TO EVERYONE.
// EMMERSON ACT ONE //
HABIBIE HAS SAID, IN FACT, THAT BY THE FIRST OF JANUARY
OF THE YEAR 2000, THE EAST TIMORESE PROBLEM SHOULD BE
SETTLED. AND HE HAS MADE THIS RATHER AUDACIOUS
STATEMENT, WHICH IS QUITE SURPRISING AND NEVER WOULD
HAVE BEEN MADE BY HIS PREDECESSOR SUHARTO, THAT IF THE
EAST TIMORESE DO NOT WANT MAJOR AUTONOMY -- SUBSTANTIAL
AUTONOMY, THE RIGHT TO ELECT THEIR OWN PEOPLE, HAVE
THEIR OWN POLITICAL PARTIES AND SO FORTH -- THEN, LET
THEM BE INDEPENDENT.
// END ACT //
MR. EMMERSON, A PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND SOUTHEAST
ASIAN STUDIES AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN, SAYS MR. HABIBIE'S
STATEMENT TRIGGERED FEARS THAT INDEPENDENCE COULD BE DELIVERED
PREMATURELY. MANY OBSERVERS SAY EAST TIMOR DOES NOT HAVE
ADEQUATE POLITICAL STABILITY OR ECONOMIC RESOURCES TO HANDLE
INDEPENDENCE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT OUTSIDE HELP.
GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR ALASDAIR BOWIE SAYS IF THE
TRANSITION TO INDEPENDENCE IS TOO RAPID, THERE IS A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASED SOCIAL DISTURBANCES AND EVEN CIVIL WAR.
PROFESSOR BOWIE SAYS EVEN THE LEADERS OF THE INDEPENDENCE
MOVEMENT HAVE CALLED FOR A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO FREEDOM.
// OPT BOWIE ACT ONE //
I THINK EVEN XANANA GUSMAO WOULD BE CONCERNED AT THE
PROSPECT OF INDEPENDENCE IN A MATTER OF MONTHS, RATHER
THAN YEARS. IN FACT, HE'S TALKED ABOUT A
TWO-OR-MORE-YEAR TRANSITION PERIOD. THIS IS
EXTRAORDINARY RAPID MOVEMENT IN A MATTER OF WEEKS, AFTER
YEARS AND YEARS OF INTRANSIGENCE ON THE PART OF THE
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT.
// END ACT // END OPT //
PROFESSOR BOWIE, A SPECIALIST ON INDONESIAN POLITICS AND
ECONOMICS, SAYS HE THINKS THE EAST TIMORESE PEOPLE WOULD BENEFIT
MORE FROM AN ARRANGEMENT OF BROAD-RANGING AUTONOMY THAN OUTRIGHT
INDEPENDENCE.
// BOWIE ACT 2 //
I THINK AUTONOMY WOULD ALLOW THE TIMORESE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO RULE THEMSELVES IN A WAY THAT THEY REALLY
HAVEN'T EVER HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO RULE THEMSELVES. AND
PERHAPS THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE EMERGENCE OF LEADERS MORE
SYMPATHETIC WITH INDONESIA, PREPARED TO ALLOW INDONESIA
TO HANDLE TIMOR'S FOREIGN POLICY, BROADER DEFENSE
PROTECTION, NOT LOCAL DEFENSE OPERATIONS. SO AUTONOMY
MIGHT BE SEEN AS A COMPROMISE.
// END ACT //
PROFESSOR DONALD EMMERSON SAYS HE SUPPORTS THE PRINCIPLES OF
CIVIL LIBERTIES AND SELF-DETERMINATION. BUT HE SAYS IF THE
CONDITIONS DO NOT EXIST FOR INDEPENDENCE TO BE SUCCESSFUL, THEN
AN OFFER OF IMMEDIATE INDEPENDENCE IS NOT IN THE INTEREST OF THE
EAST TIMORESE PEOPLE. // OPT // PROFESSOR EMMERSON RECOGNIZES
THAT IS A CONTROVERSIAL VIEW.
// OPT EMMERSON ACT TWO //
AFTER ALL, WHEN THE COLONIAL POWERS IN AFRICA DID NOT
GRANT INDEPENDENCE, WHAT ARGUMENT DID THEY USE? THEY
SAID, "YOU PEOPLE ARE NOT READY FOR INDEPENDENCE." AND,
OF COURSE, THAT WAS A VERY PATRONIZING KIND OF VIEW, AS
IF THE AFRICANS WERE SOMEHOW CHILDREN OR INFERIOR,
IMMATURE. AND THERE'S A PROBLEM, IT SEEMS TO ME IN THE
EAST TIMORESE CASE, OF NOT TRYING TO FALL IN TO THE
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT'S SORT OF IMPLIED VIEW HERE THAT
THE EAST TIMORESE MAY NOT BE READY FOR INDEPENDENCE.
WHO IS TO SAY THAT THEY ARE NOT READY FOR INDEPENDENCE?
// END ACT // END OPT //
AT A RECENT NEWS CONFERENCE AT THE UNITED NATIONS, INDONESIAN
FOREIGN MINISTER ALI ALATAS WAS ASKED WHY HIS GOVERNMENT DOES
NOT OFFER THE EAST TIMORESE A THIRD CHOICE -- AUTONOMY AS A
TRANSITION TO FULL INDEPENDENCE. MR. ALATAS SAID THAT WOULD NOT
BE FAIR TO THE REST OF INDONESIA.
// ALATAS ACT //
WHY SHOULD WE, INDONESIA, BE ASKED TO ACCEPT APPLYING
WIDE RANGING AUTONOMY AS A SPECIAL TREATMENT TO EAST
TIMOR, WHILE THE OTHER PROVINCES WOULD JUST LOOK ON,
CONTINUE TO BEAR THE BURDEN OF ITS FINANCING, CONTINUE
TO BEAR THE BURDEN OF ALL KINDS OF ACCUSATIONS IF
ANYTHING GOES WRONG, AND THEN, AT THE END OF THAT
PERIOD TO HAVE PEOPLE TELL US, 'THANK YOU VERY MUCH, WE
ARE NOW READY FOR INDEPENDENCE?' WHY SHOULD WE ACCEPT
SUCH A PROPOSITION? NO, OUR PROPOSITION IS, I THINK,
MUCH FAIRER, CLEARER. THIS IS THE CHOICE, AND YOU CAN
CHOOSE WHATEVER WAY YOU WANT TO DO BETWEEN THESE TWO
CHOICES.
// END ACT //
MR. ALATAS SAYS THE PEOPLE OF EAST TIMOR KNOW WHICH OF THE TWO
CHOICES -- AUTONOMY UNDER INDONESIAN SOVEREIGNTY OR COMPLETE
INDEPENDENCE -- WOULD SERVE THEIR INTERESTS BETTER. (SIGNED)
NEB/SMN/KL
22-Feb-99 1:15 PM EST (1815 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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