DATE=2/12/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42599
TITLE=SIERRA LEONE / NEIGHBORS
BYLINE=WILLIAM EAGLE
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
EDITOR=
CONTENT=
NOT VOICED:
INTRO: SIERRA LEONE'S INTERNAL CONFLICT IS HAVING AN EFFECT FAR
BEYOND ITS BORDERS. THE WAR HAS FLOODED WEST AFRICA WITH
REFUGEES. AND SOME SAY IT MAY ALSO THREATEN THE STABILITY OF
OTHER COUNTRIES. FROM WASHINGTON, REPORTER WILLIAM EAGLE
REPORTS.
TEXT: LAST MONTH, REBELS IN SIERRA LEONE ATTACKED THE 15
THOUSAND MEMBER WEST AFRICAN INTERVENTION FORCE, OR ECOMOG, AND
NEARLY DROVE IT FROM FREE TOWN, THE CAPITAL OF SIERRA LEONE. IN
THE WEEKS SINCE THEN, LITTLE HAS HAPPENED THAT DIMINISHES THE
THREAT POSED BY THE REBEL REVOLUTIONARY UNITED FRONT, OR R-U-F.
ECOMOG IS MADE UP PRIMARILY OF TROOPS FROM NIGERIA, ALONG WITH
TROOPS FROM COUNTRIES SUCH AS GHANA AND GUINEA. SEVERAL ANALYSTS
HAVE EXPRESSED THE FEAR THAT IF A REGIONAL MILITARY FORCE IS
DEFEATED BY WHAT MANY CALL A RAG-TAG GROUP OF REBELS, ECOMOG'S
CREDIBILITY WILL BE IN TATTERS.
SOME OBSERVERS BELIEVE A HUMILIATED ECOMOG MIGHT EVEN WEAKEN THE
RULE OF MILITARY-BACKED RULERS SUPPORTING THE INTERVENTION FORCE.
KWESI PRATT, JR. IS A LEADING HUMAN RIGHTS SPOKESMAN FOR WEST
AFRICA -- AND MANAGING EDITOR OF THE WEEKLY PAPER "INSIGHT," IN
ACCRA, GHANA.
// PRATT ACT //
FOR ONE OF THE FIRST TIMES, SOLDIERS OF GHANA, NIGERIA
AND GUINEA HAVE BEEN [NEARLY] DEFEATED IN WAR BY REBELS.
AND THAT TELLS OUR PEOPLE THAT THE FORCES OF THE
DICTATORS ARE VULNERABLE AND CAN BE DEFEATED. THAT CAN
HAVE IMPORTANT RAMIFICATIONS IN AFRICA. [ALSO] IT IS
BELIEVED THE R-U-F HAS FIGHTERS FROM LIBERIA, GHANA AND
NIGERIA ... AND OTHER COUNTRIES. IF THAT IS TRUE, WHAT
IS HAPPENING IN SIERRA LEONE GIVES [REBELS AND
MERCENARIES] ENORMOUS EXPERIENCE THAT CAN BE USED IN
OTHER COUNTRIES.
// END ACT //
SOME POLITICAL ANALYSTS SAY IF A COUNTRY'S SUSCEPTIBILITY TO
UPHEAVAL IS MEASURED BY DISGRUNTLED MINORITIES -- NIGERIA COULD
BE A LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR INSTABILITY.
(OPT) NIGERIA HAS HUNDREDS OF ETHNIC MINORITIES -- INCLUDING THE
OGONI AND IJAW IN THE SOUTH. THEY WANT MORE LOCAL CONTROL OVER
THEIR OWN RESOURCES -- LIKE THE REGION'S LUCRATIVE OIL INDUSTRY.
THEY ACCUSE THE MILITARY OF LINING ITS OWN POCKETS WITH
(STEALING) THE OIL PROFITS. (END OPT)
ABDEL FATAH MUSA [PRON. FAH-TAH' MOO'-SAH] IS AN ANALYST WITH THE
CENTER FOR DEMOCRACY AND DEVELOPMENT IN LONDON.
// MUSA ACT //
THE NIGER DELTA IS IN AN UPROAR IN NIGERIA. AND THERE
IS THE THREAT OF...THE COUNTRY BEING DISMEMBERED -- THE
NORTH-SOUTH [DIVISION] IS REAL.... THE NIGER DELTA, THE
OGONI AND OTHERS FEEL THEIR RESOURCES ARE NOT BEING USED
FOR THEIR BENEFIT -- ARE PUSHING FOR MORE AUTONOMY. A
DEFEAT FOR NIGERIAN TROOPS IN SIERRA LEONE WILL BOLSTER
THOSE PRETENSIONS. WHAT HAS KEPT THE MILITARY IN POWER
IS THE FEAR OF THE MILITARY ... AND IF THEY ARE DEFEATED
BY A RAG-TAG R-U-F IN SIERRA LEONE, THAT WILL EMBOLDEN
ANY FORCES THAT WOULD LIKE TO TAKE ON THE ARMY.
// END ACT //
// OPT // THE WAR IN SIERRA LEONE COULD ALSO AFFECT NIGERIA'S
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE AFTER THIS MONTH'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
MILITARY RULER ABDULSALAMI ABUBAKAR -- AND EVEN SOME PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATES -- SAY THEY PLAN TO PULL NIGERIAN TROOPS OUT OF SIERRA
LEONE WITHIN A FEW MONTHS. // END OPT //
// OPT // NIGERIA'S LONG COMMITMENT TO THE WEST AFRICAN
INTERVENTION FORCE IS ALSO GROWING MORE EXPENSIVE -- BECAUSE OF
THE DROP IN PRICES FOR THE COUNTRY'S MAIN EXPORT, OIL. SOME SAY
CIVILIAN POLITICIANS COULD USE THE MONEY SPENT ON SIERRA LEONEAN
INTERVENTION TO FULFILL ELECTION PROMISES TO A DEMANDING
ELECTORATE. // END OPT //
// OPT // OTHERS SAY BOTH NIGERIA'S MILITARY AND CIVILIANS
RECOGNIZE THE IMPORTANCE OF KEEPING NIGERIAN INFLUENCE -- AND
TROOPS -- IN SIERRA LEONE.
// OPT // WILLIAM RENO, AN ANALYST OF AFRICAN POLITICS, IS AN
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
UNIVERSITY IN MIAMI.
// OPT: RENO ACT //
IF YOU LOOK AT POLITICIANS IN NIGERIA, IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR THEM TO WALK AWAY FROM SIERRA LEONE.
THERE IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS IN NIGERIA THAT THE
STABILITY OF COUNTRIES IN THE REGION IS OF STRATEGIC
INTEREST. SO EVEN THE CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT WILL KEEP AN
ECOMOG FORCE IN SIERRA LEONE.
THE OTHER ANGLE IS THAT THIS IS THE MOST EFFECTIVE
BRANCH OF THE NIGERIAN MILITARY -- THE CLOSEST THING TO
AN HONEST-TO-GOD, EFFICIENT MILITARY THAT RESPECTS
HIERARCHY AND COMMAND. SO ECOMOG IS AN APPEALING
ORGANIZATION TO REFORMERS IN NIGERIA MILITARY ITSELF.
// END ACT // // END OPT //
NIGERIA IS NOT THE ONLY COUNTRY WHOSE PRIDE -- OR STABILITY --
MIGHT BE LINKED TO A PEACEFUL SOLUTION TO THE SIERRA LEONE WAR.
GHANA'S PRESIDENT JERRY RAWLINGS CAME TO POWER IN A MILITARY COUP
OVER 15 YEARS AGO. HE'S NOW AN ELECTED CIVILIAN LEADER, AND IS
NOT ALLOWED BY LAW TO RUN FOR RE-ELECTION IN THE YEAR 2000.
BUT AFRICA ANALYST ABDEL FATAH MUSA SAYS THE SPREAD OF ARMS IN
WEST AFRICA FROM THE SIERRA LEONE WAR COULD RATTLE (DISTURB)
GHANA.
// MUSA ACT //
FOR RAWLINGS, THE MOST FEARED OPPONENTS TO GHANA IS NOT
THE LEGAL OPPOSITION -- THE [SO-CALLED] RIGHT WING
PARTIES OF GHANA. THEY ARE PLAYING BY THE BOOK [OF
RULES SET UP BY THE RAWLINGS GOVERNMENT]. RAWLINGS'
REAL FEAR IS ACTUALLY THE FORCES OF THE LEFT -- WHO
BROKE AWAY FROM [HIS] GOVERNMENT AS [FAR BACK AS] 1982
AND WHO ARE STILL A CREDIBLE OPPOSITION FORCE. THERE
ARE SOME ELEMENTS OF THIS OPPOSITION THAT HAVE VERY
SOLID LINKS WITH GROUPS LIKE THE R-U-F IN SIERRA LEONE
AND [LIBERIA'S RULING PARTY,] THE N-P-F-L.
// END ACT //
(OPT) IN WHAT MAY BE AN INDICATION OF THE THE WAY THE RAWLINGS
GOVERNMENT VIEWS THE THREAT, THIS PAST WEEK THE JUDICIARY
SENTENCED FOUR CIVILIANS TO DEATH FOR TREASON. THEY'RE ACCUSED
OF RECRUITING MERCENARIES AND ARMS IN GREAT BRITAIN. (END OPT)
(OPT) THE WAR COULD ALSO BECOME A CAMPAIGN ISSUE IN THE NEXT
ELECTIONS. SOME CRITICIZE PRESIDENT RAWLINGS FOR COMMITTING
TROOPS WITHOUT CONSULTING PARLIAMENT -- AS REQUIRED BY LAW. (END
OPT)
ANOTHER NEIGHBOR OF SIERRA LEONE -- GUINEA -- ALSO HAS TROOPS IN
THE ECOMOG FORCE. CRITICS SAY THE COUNTRY ALSO HAS A COMBUSTIBLE
DOMESTIC POLITICAL SCENE UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF FORMER GENERAL
LANSANA CONTE.
(OPT) HIS ADMINISTRATION ACCUSES OPPOSITION LEADER ALPHA CONDE OF
SUPPORTING A MERCENARY PLOT AGAINST IT. HE'S BEEN UNDER HOUSE
ARREST SINCE LATE LAST YEAR, WHEN THE GOVERNMENT SAYS IT SEIZED
DOCUMENTS AND CASH FROM HIM. MR. CONDE SAYS HE'S INNOCENT. (END
OPT)
POLITICAL SCIENTIST WILLIAM RENO SAYS SIERRA LEONE'S CRISIS IS
BAD NEWS FOR PRESIDENT CONTE.
// RENO ACT //
GUINEA IS THE BIG LOSER [IN THE SIERRA LEONE WAR]
BECAUSE ITS POLITICAL SITUATION IS PRECARIOUS. THERE
ARE FACTIONS IN THE GUINEA ARMY -- AND HAVING GUNS ON
ITS SOUTHERN BORDER [WITH SIERRA LEONE] IS DESTABILIZING
FOR THEM. A COUP ATTEMPT IN EARLY 1996 EXPOSED THE
FACTIONS. SOME OF THEM COOPERATED WITH SIERRA LEONEAN
REBELS AND IF ANY OF THOSE THINK THEY CAN MAKE A BID FOR
POWER, YOU HAVE A FAIRLY AUTHORITARIAN [BUT] REFORM
[-MINDED] GOVERNMENT THAT WILL BE SWEPT AWAY.
// END ACT //
AN EXPANDING CONFLICT IN SIERRA LEONE COULD SWEEP AWAY MORE THAN
ONE GOVERNMENT. OBSERVERS SAY THERE'S ALREADY A PRECEDENT FOR
REGIONAL WAR IN AFRICA -- IN CENTRAL AFRICA. (OPT) THAT REBEL
CONFLICT INVOLVES THE FORMER ZAIRE AND ARMIES FROM OVER A HALF
DOZEN NEIGHBORS. (END OPT) CRITICS SAY THE WARS HAVE COMMON
ELEMENTS: PRESSURE BY SOME TO CHANGE NATIONAL BOUNDARIES
ARTIFICIALLY SET UP BY COLONIAL POWERS, A BOOMING MARKET FOR
ILLEGAL WEAPONS, AND A SEARCH BY MERCENARIES AND STATES TO
CONTROL MINERAL WEALTH.
OBSERVERS WARN THAT OTHER COUNTRIES MAY WELL BECOME INVOLVED IN
THE SIERRA LEONE CIVIL WAR. THEY SAY THE TEMPTATION IS REAL --
BECAUSE THERE COULD BE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REWARDS FOR THE
WINNERS. (SIGNED)
NEB/WE/KL
12-Feb-99 2:18 PM EST (1918 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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