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DATE=1/17/99
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-244286
TITLE=ANGOLA WAR (L ONLY)
BYLINE=ALEX BELIDA
DATELINE=LUANDA
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 
INTRO:  ANGOLA APPEARS TO BE RUSHING HEADLONG TOWARDS ANOTHER 
ALL-OUT CIVIL WAR FOLLOWING THE COLLAPSE OF A U-N-BACKED PEACE 
EFFORT.  FROM THE ANGOLAN CAPITAL, LUANDA, V-O-A SOUTHERN AFRICA 
CORRESPONDENT ALEX BELIDA REPORTS.
TEXT:  FOREIGN DIPLOMATS ARE TRYING DESPERATELY TO PREVENT THE 
FIGHTING THAT HAS ALREADY ERUPTED FROM SPREADING.  THE SENIOR 
UNITED NATIONS ENVOY IN ANGOLA, ISSA DIALLO, IS PRESSING FOR A 
NEW DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT AND JONAS SAVIMBI'S UNITA 
REBELS.  HE TELLS V-O-A WAR IS  NOT  THE SOLUTION.
                       /// DIALLO ACT ///
         WHEN YOU MAKE WAR, YOU DON'T WIN.  THE WINNER IS WAR.
                         /// END ACT ///
BUT THE GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN FRUSTRATED BY UNITA'S FAILURE TO 
DEMILITARIZE AND TURN OVER TERRITORY UNDER ITS CONTROL, AS 
PROMISED UNDER ANGOLA'S 1994 PEACE AGREEMENT.  AUTHORITIES 
BELIEVE FORCE IS NOW THE ONLY WAY TO END WHAT THEY REGARD AS 
UNITA'S CONTINUING THREAT TO PEACE IN THE RESOURCE-RICH COUNTRY. 
IN A NEW YEAR'S MESSAGE TO THE NATION, PRESIDENT JOSE EDUARDO DOS
SANTOS SAID HE WOULD  NOT  HEED ANY FURTHER INTERNATIONAL CALLS 
TO GIVE UNITA ANOTHER CHANCE.
SOURCES CLOSE TO THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE IN LUANDA TELL V-O-A 
OFFICIALS BELIEVE IT MAY TAKE A YEAR OR MORE, BUT THEY ARE 
CONVINCED THE ARMY, NOW 100-THOUSAND STRONG, WILL EVENTUALLY 
DEFEAT THE REBELS, WHO ARE BELIEVED TO NUMBER SOME 30-THOUSAND. 
// OPT // IN AN APPARENT BID TO BOLSTER ITS PROSPECTS, THE 
GOVERNMENT HAS ORDERED THE COMPULSORY MILITARY CALL-UP OF ALL 
18-TO-20-YEAR-OLD MEN.  IT HAS ALSO TALKED TO NEIGHBORING 
COUNTRIES ABOUT POSSIBLE MILITARY ASSISTANCE.  // END OPT //
FOR ITS PART, ANALYSTS SAY UNITA SEEMS EQUALLY DISINTERESTED IN 
TALKING PEACE.  THEY SAY IT APPEARS FOR THE MOMENT TO BE 
RELISHING ITS DISPLAY OF MILITARY MIGHT ON THE BATTLEFIELD.  
WELL-ARMED REBEL FORCES LATE LAST YEAR DROVE OFF A GOVERNMENT 
ATTACK AIMED AT SEIZING UNITA'S STRONGHOLDS IN THE COUNTRY'S 
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.  SINCE THEN, THE REBELS HAVE THREATENED THE 
GOVERNMENT'S GRIP ON SEVERAL KEY CITIES AND TOWNS.
                        /// REST OPT /// 
STILL, ANALYSTS SAY THE ODDS DO  NOT  SEEM TO FAVOR UNITA IN THE 
LONG TERM, GIVEN ITS INTERNATIONAL ISOLATION AND LIKELY RESUPPLY 
DIFFICULTIES.  BUT THEY SAY THE REBELS CAN CONTINUE 
GUERRILLA-STYLE FIGHTING INDEFINITELY, AS A CONSTANT THORN IN THE
GOVERNMENT'S SIDE.   (SIGNED)
NEB/BEL/DW/WTW
17-Jan-99 10:05 AM EST (1505 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.