DATE=1/5/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42293
TITLE=ANGOLA/COLLAPSE
BYLINE=DOUGLAS ROBERTS
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: A LONG AND COSTLY EFFORT TO BRING PEACE TO ANGOLA NOW
SEEMS ON THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE, AMID ESCALATING WARFARE BETWEEN
GOVERNMENT TROOPS AND REBEL FORCES LOYAL TO UNITA LEADER JONAS
SAVIMBI. THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL COULD DECIDE AS EARLY AS NEYT
WEEK TO WITHDRAW THE REMAINING U-N MONITORS DISPATCHED TO THE
COUNTRY TO OVERSEE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE 1994 LUSAKA PEACE
ACCORD. THERE IS A CONSENSUS AMONG U-S ANALYSTS THAT UNITA IS TO
BLAME FOR THE FAILURE OF THE PEACE PROCESS, AND THERE ARE GROWING
FEARS THAT ANGOLA IS HEADED TOWARD A NEW HUMANITARIAN DISASTER.
V-O-A'S DOUGLAS ROBERTS FILED THIS BACKGROUND REPORT.
TEXT: BARELY A YEAR AGO, MANY ANALYSTS WERE ISSUING OPTIMISTIC
FORECASTS ABOUT ANGOLA'S FUTURE. THE LUANDA GOVERNMENT AND UNITA
SEEMED FINALLY READY TO SET ASIDE MORE THAN TWO DECADES OF
HOSTILITY AND MOVE TOWARD A PERMANENT PEACE.
// OPT // UNITA LEADER JONAS SAVIMBI WAS STILL REFUSING TO LEAVE
HIS PROVINCIAL STRONGHOLD FOR THE CAPITAL, SAYING HE FEARED
ASSASSINATION. BUT HE HAD DISPATCHED SENIOR POLITICAL AND
MILITARY AIDES TO LUANDA TO TAKE UP THEIR POSITIONS IN A
GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY, IN PARLIAMENT AND IN THE ARMED
FORCES HIGH COMMAND. // END OPT //
FORMER U-S ENVOY PAUL HARE SAYS HE CAME AWAY FROM A MISSION TO
LUANDA LAST SPRING ENCOURAGED THAT THE FORMER ENEMIES WERE GOING
TO COMPLETE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LUSAKA PEACE DEAL. BUT
WHEN HE RETURNED TO LUANDA ON WHAT TURNED OUT TO BE HIS FINAL
MISSION IN JULY, THE SITUATION HAD DETERIORATED SHARPLY, WITH
UNITA REFUSING TO COMPLETE THE DEMOBILIZATION OF ITS FORCES OR TO
CEDE CONTROL OF ITS PROVINCIAL STRONGHOLDS TO THE CENTRAL
GOVERNMENT.
/// FIRST HARE ACT ///
I COULD ONLY CONCLUDE THAT THE UNITA LEADERSHIP UNDER
JONAS SAVIMBI DECIDED THAT THEY WERE NOT GOING TO TAKE
THE FINAL STEPS, THAT IT WAS BETTER FROM THEIR
PERSPECTIVE TO REMAIN IN THE COUNTRYSIDE, OBVIOUSLY WITH
A SUBSTANTIAL MILITARY MACHINE STILL AT THEIR DISPOSAL,
RATHER THAN TO ENTER THE POLITICAL PROCESS AND RISK
BEING, PERHAPS FROM THEIR PERSPECTIVE, MARGINALIZED.
/// END ACT ///
CONSTANCE FREEMAN, AFRICA STUDIES DIRECTOR AT WASHINGTON'S CENTER
FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, SAYS THE LUANDA
GOVERNMENT MUST BEAR SOME OF THE BLAME FOR THE FAILURE OF THE
LUSAKA PEACE PROCESS. BUT SHE, LIKE AMBASSADOR HARE, SAYS
PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY RESTS WITH UNITA.
/// FIRST FREEMAN ACT ///
I THINK IT IS CLEAR THAT SAVIMBI'S UNWILLINGNESS TO
DISARM HIS ARMY, AS WAS AGREED IN THE LUSAKA ACCORDS,
AND TO CONTINUE ON RUNNING, IN ESSENCE, A SEPARATE STATE
ARE THE FACTORS WHICH SCUTTLED THE LUSAKA ACCORDS.
/// END ACT ///
WITH WARFARE NOW ESCALATING IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, AND WITH
U-N PLANES NOW BEING TARGETED -- BY UNITA FORCES, ACCORDING TO
MOST ANALYSTS HERE -- BOTH AMBASSADOR HARE AND PROFESSOR FREEMAN
SEE LITTLE REASON FOR U-N CEASE-FIRE MONITORS TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
/// SECOND HARE ACT ///
OBVIOUSLY IN A SITUATION OF FIGHTING ...THIS IS A
PEACEKEEPING FORCE. IT IS NOT A PEACE-MAKING FORCE.
ITS ROLE AND ITS ABILITY TO PLAY A CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE IS
SEVERELY DIMINISHED, IF NOT ELIMINATED, UNDER THE
EXISTING CIRCUMSTANCES.
/// END ACT ///
CONSTANCE FREEMAN AGREES, SAYING A U-N PULL-OUT MIGHT EVENTUALLY
FORCE THE TWO SIDES TO DEAL WITH EACH OTHER, TO FIND A SOLUTION
TO THE CONFLICT.
/// OPT SECOND FREEMAN ACT ///
IT MAY BE TIME FOR THE U-N TO LEAVE AND LET THEM HAVE AT
IT, TO SOLVE THIS PROBLEM BECAUSE NOBODY ELSE IS GOING
TO SOLVE IT FOR THEM. ULTIMATELY THEY HAVE TO FIND A
SOLUTION. AND I BELIEVE THAT THE ANGOLAN PEOPLE ARE
MIGHTY TIRED OF WAR AND LAND MINES AND SUFFERING AND
STARVING, AND AT SOME POINT THEY ARE GOING TO SAY,
"ENOUGH."
/// END ACT /// /// END OPT ///
ANALYSTS HERE SAY IT IS DIFFICULT TO GAUGE THE RELATIVE
BATTLEFIELD STRENGTHS OF THE TWO FACTIONS AT PRESENT. MOST
BELIEVE THE LUANDA GOVERNMENT HAS A STRATEGIC EDGE, BUT THEY SAY
UNITA REMAINS A FORMIDABLE FORCE. THEY SAY MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
THE REBEL MOVEMENT'S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN MILITARY OPERATIONS OVER
THE LONG TERM.
UNITA HAS BEEN UNDER INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS SINCE 1994,
INCLUDING AN ARMS EMBARGO AND A BAN ON THE EXPORT OF MINERAL
WEALTH FROM THE TERRITORY IT CONTROLS.
BUT ANALYSTS SAY THE SANCTIONS HAVE BEEN LARGELY INEFFECTIVE,
ESPECIALLY IN HALTING UNITA'S LUCRATIVE DIAMOND TRADE, WHICH
FUNDS ITS ARMS IMPORTS. AMBASSADOR HARE SAYS STRENGTHENING THE
SANCTIONS SHOULD NOW BE A TOP INTERNATIONAL PRIORITY.
/// THIRD HARE ACT ///
I THINK EVERYTHING POSSIBLE SHOULD BE DONE BY THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO TRY TO MAKE THESE SANCTIONS
AS EFFECTIVE AS POSSIBLE AGAINST UNITA. I THINK THERE
IS A LOT MORE THAN CAN BE DONE IN THAT AREA, THAT SHOULD
BE DONE IN THAT AREA.
/// END ACT ///
AMBASSADOR HARE AND CONSTANCE FREEMAN SAY THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO ENCOURAGE
PEACE IN ANGOLA, EVEN AFTER A U-N PULL-OUT. BUT BOTH BELIEVE
THAT IN THE NEAR TERM, THE WORLD COMMUNITY'S MAIN TASK WILL BE
DEALING WITH THE HUMANITARIAN CONSEQUENCES OF YET ANOTHER ROUND
OF WARFARE. (SIGNED)
NEB/DBR/WTW
05-Jan-99 1:38 PM EST (1838 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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