DATE=12/22/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42207
TITLE=YEARENDER: ANGOLA '98
BYLINE=ALEX BELIDA
DATELINE=JOHANNESBURG
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: FOUR-YEARS AFTER THE SIGNING OF A PEACE ACCORD THAT ENDED
TWO-DECADES OF CIVIL WAR IN ANGOLA, THE OIL AND DIAMOND RICH
COUNTRY ONCE AGAIN APPEARED TO BE ON THE ROAD TO RENEWED ALL-OUT
CONFLICT AS 1998 DREW TO A CLOSE. SOUTHERN AFRICA CORRESPONDENT
ALEX BELIDA HAS THIS YEAREND REVIEW OF EVENTS IN ANGOLA.
TEXT: THE ANGOLAN GOVERNMENT'S FRUSTRATION WITH THE UNITA REBEL
MOVEMENT REACHED A PEAK THIS PAST YEAR AS THE COUNTRY MARKED THE
FOURTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE SIGNING OF THE LUSAKA PROTOCOL.
THAT WAS THE U-N-SPONSORED PEACE DEAL THAT WAS TO HAVE BROUGHT
ABOUT THE REBEL GROUP'S COMPLETE DEMILITARIZATION AND ITS
INTEGRATION INTO ANGOLA'S POLITICAL MAINSTREAM AS A LEGITIMATE
OPPOSITION PARTY.
BUT UNITA, MISTRUSTFUL OF THE GOVERNMENT'S INTENTIONS, NEVER
DEMILITARIZED, RETAINING A HIDDEN ARMY ESTIMATED IN SIZE AT
30-THOUSAND MEN. IT ALSO CONTINUED TO PURCHASE WEAPONS, PAYING
FOR THEM WITH DIAMONDS MINED FROM TERRITORY IT CONTROLLED.
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TRIED TO IMPOSE TOUGH SANCTIONS ON
UNITA IN A BID TO FORCE ITS COMPLIANCE WITH THE TERMS OF THE 1994
PEACE DEAL. BUT THESE HAD LITTLE IMPACT.
EVENTUALLY THE GOVERNMENT OF PRESIDENT JOSE EDUARDO DOS SANTOS
DECIDED ENOUGH WAS ENOUGH.
/// DOS SANTOS ACTUALITY - IN PORTUGUESE - FADE UNDER ///
FIRST, THE PRESIDENT ANNOUNCED THE GOVERNMENT WAS BREAKING OFF
FURTHER CONTACTS WITH UNITA LEADER JONAS SAVIMBI. INSTEAD, IT
RECOGNIZED A UNITA SPLINTER GROUP MADE UP OF DISSIDENTS WHO HAD
BROKEN WITH THE REBEL CHIEF.
BUT THE MOVE HAD LITTLE IMPACT ON MR. SAVIMBI, WHO DISMISSED THE
BREAKAWAY GROUP AS INSIGNIFICANT. IN NOVEMBER, HAVING DECIDED
FORCE WAS THE ONLY THING THE REBEL LEADER WOULD UNDERSTAND, THE
GOVERNMENT SENT TROOPS ON AN OFFENSIVE TO SEIZE UNITA'S TWIN
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS STRONGHOLDS OF ANDULO AND BAILUNDO. THE AIM
WAS TO CAPTURE OR KILL UNITA'S LEADERS AND THUS FORCE THE
COLLAPSE OF THE REBEL MOVEMENT.
THE ASSAULT FAILED -- IN PART BECAUSE UNITA COUNTER-ATTACKED,
USING HEAVY WEAPONS THAT CAUGHT THE GOVERNMENT BY SURPRISE. BY
MID-DECEMBER, UNITA WAS THREATENING THE GOVERNMENT'S GRIP ON
SEVERAL KEY TOWNS, INCLUDING CUITO AND HUAMBO.
THE GOVERNMENT LASHED OUT AT THE U-N PEACEKEEPING MISSION IN THE
COUNTRY, BLAMING IT FOR FAILING TO ENFORCE THE PEACE AGREEMENT
AND ALLOWING UNITA TO RE-ARM. ANGOLAN NATIONAL RADIO REPORTED AT
YEAR'S END THE GOVERNMENT WAS SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING ASKING THE
UNITED NATIONS MISSION TO LEAVE. AUTHORITIES IN LUANDA WERE ALSO
UNDERSTOOD TO BE SEEKING MILITARY SUPPORT FROM NEIGHBORING
COUNTRIES FOR AN ALL-OUT FIGHT WITH UNITA.
/// REST OPTIONAL ///
ANALYSTS WERE NOT ALTOGETHER SURPRISED BY ANGOLA'S DESCENT INTO
RENEWED CIVIL WAR. RICHARD CORNWELL OF SOUTH AFRICA'S
INDEPENDENT INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES SAYS THE CONFLICTING
AMBITIONS OF PRESIDENT DOS SANTOS AND UNITA LEADER SAVIMBI HAVE
LONG SPELLED TROUBLE FOR THE COUNTRY.
/// CORNWELL ACTUALITY ///
SOMETIMES ONE COMES TO DOUBT THE SANITY OF THE PEOPLE
INVOLVED. RATIONAL CHOICE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN IT.
PRESIDENT DOS SANTOS OBVIOUSLY HAS HIS OWN INTERESTS IN
RETAINING POWER. HE'S SADDLED THE TIGER, HE CAN'T GET
OFF. THERE ARE ALL KINDS OF RUMORS ABOUT THE AMOUNTS OF
MONEY THAT ARE BEING MADE AT THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE BY
SKIMMING THE OIL REVENUES. FOR HIS PART, JONAS SAVIMBI
HAS MADE IT QUITE CLEAR THAT HE IS NOT INTERESTED IN
MATERIAL GAIN, HE IS INTERESTED IN BEING PRESIDENT OF
ANGOLA. SO THERE YOU HAVE GOT THE STAND-OFF. IT IS
BETWEEN THE UNPALATABLE AND THE UNACCEPTABLE.
/// END ACTUALITY ///
AS THE VIOLENCE IN ANGOLA MOUNTED DURING 1998, THE PROSPECTS FOR
A NEW HUMANITARIAN DISASTER ALSO GREW. BY YEAR'S END, RELIEF
WORKERS WERE REPORTING HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF ANGOLANS HAD BEEN
FORCED FROM THEIR HOMES BY THE LATEST FIGHTING AND WERE IN NEED
OF ASSISTANCE. (SIGNED)
NEB/BEL/JWH/RAE
22-Dec-98 9:33 AM EST (1433 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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