DATE=11/11/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41824
TITLE=NEWS ANALYSIS: ANGOLA INDEPENDENCE
BYLINE=ALEX BELIDA
DATELINE=LUANDA
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THIS IS INDEPENDENCE DAY IN ANGOLA -- A NATIONAL HOLIDAY
MARKING THE COUNTRY'S FREEDOM FROM PORTUGUESE COLONIAL RULE 23
YEARS AGO. BUT AS V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ALEX BELIDA REPORTS FROM
LUANDA, THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE REASON FOR ANGOLANS TO
CELEBRATE.
TEXT: FOR MOST OF THE PAST 23 YEARS, ANGOLA HAS BEEN AT WAR. A
PEACE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT AND THE UNITA REBEL
MOVEMENT FOUR YEARS AGO WAS SUPPOSED TO CHANGE THAT.
BUT ON THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY, THERE IS ONCE AGAIN FEAR THAT A NEW
WAR MAY BE LOOMING -- A FEAR VOICED THIS WEEK BY THE UNITED
NATIONS SPECIAL ENVOY, ISSA DIALLO.
DURING A VISIT TO SOUTH AFRICA, MR. DIALLO BLAMED BOTH THE
GOVERNMENT OF PRESIDENT JOSE EDUARDO DOS SANTOS AND UNITA, LED BY
JONAS SAVIMBI, FOR PUSHING ANGOLA TO THE BRINK. HE SAID BOTH
SIDES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR JEOPARDIZING THE COUNTRY'S 1994 PEACE
AGREEMENT, KNOWN AS THE LUSAKA PROTOCOL.
/// DIALLO ACTUALITY ///
DURING THE DAY, SAVIMBI IS HITTING THE PROTOCOL AND
DURING THE NIGHT, THE GOVERNMENT IS BEATING THE
PROTOCOL. SO AFTER SOME TIME, THE POOR PROTOCOL WILL BE
IN A VERY BAD SHAPE...
/// END ACTUALITY ///
MR. DIALLO STILL BELIEVES THE LUSAKA PROTOCOL IS WORTH SAVING.
BUT HIS EFFORTS TO REVIVE THE PEACE PROCESS HAVE RUN INTO A MAJOR
OBSTACLE. THE GOVERNMENT WILL NO LONGER HAVE ANYTHING TO DO
WITH MR. SAVIMBI, AND IT HAS BLOCKED THE UNITED NATIONS FROM
HAVING ANY FURTHER CONTACTS WITH THE UNITA LEADER.
INSTEAD, THE GOVERNMENT HAS THROWN ITS SUPPORT TO A BREAKAWAY
FACTION OF THE REBEL MOVEMENT, KNOWN AS UNITA RENOVADA OR UNITA
RENEWAL. THE LARGELY LUANDA-BASED GROUP CLAIMS TO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE SUPPORT. BUT THAT CLAIM IS DISMISSED NOT ONLY BY
MR. SAVIMBI, BUT BY THE UNITED NATIONS, MOST FOREIGN DIPLOMATS,
INDEPENDENT ANALYSTS, AND EVEN SOME ANGOLAN OFFICIALS.
ONE U-N OFFICIAL TELLS V-O-A BLUNTLY, "IF YOU WANT TO HAVE
PEACE, YOU HAVE TO MEET WITH THE GUY WHO HAS THE GUNS" -- A
REFERENCE TO MR. SAVIMBI, WHO HAS REFUSED TO DEMILITARIZE HIS
MOVEMENT. AN ANGOLAN OFFICIAL, SPEAKING ON CONDITION OF
ANONYMITY ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT'S REFUSAL TO NEGOTIATE WITH MR.
SAVIMBI, SAYS SIMPLY, "YOU CANNOT IGNORE HIM."
PUBLICLY, THE GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO TRY TO DEMONIZE MR. SAVIMBI
AND HIS FOLLOWERS IN AN APPARENT EFFORT TO JUSTIFY ITS HARDLINE
POSITION. DAILY ARTICLES IN THE STATE-CONTROLLED "JORNAL DE
ANGOLA" NEWSPAPER BLAME UNITA FOR A VARIETY OF ATROCITIES. THIS
WEEK, FOR EXAMPLE, SAVIMBI LOYALISTS WERE ACCUSED OF DECAPITATING
A MOTHER AND FOUR OF HER CHILDREN, THE YOUNGEST OF WHOM WAS JUST
SIX MONTHS OLD.
AID WORKERS IN ANGOLA SAY THERE HAS BEEN AN UPSURGE IN
UNITA-INSPIRED VIOLENCE AROUND THE COUNTRY IN RECENT MONTHS,
ESPECIALLY SINCE SEPTEMBER, WHEN THE GOVERNMENT BROKE OFF ALL
CONTACTS WITH MR. SAVIMBI. BUT LATELY, THEY SAY THE OVERALL
MILITARY SITUATION HAS BEEN COMPARATIVELY CALM.
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE PRIVATELY THAT THE
SITUATION IS CALMER. BUT WITH THOUSANDS OF THEIR BEST TROOPS
DEPLOYED IN NEIGHBORING CONGO-KINSHASA, THEY ARE WORRIED ABOUT
WHAT UNITA MIGHT BE PLANNING. THEY WONDER IF THIS MIGHT NOT BE
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. (SIGNED)
NEB/BEL/JWH
11-Nov-98 6:44 AM EST (1144 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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