DATE=10/2/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41519
TITLE=THE TALEBAN AND ITS NEIGHBORS
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: AS THE TALEBAN CONSOLIDATE ITS POWER IN AFGHANISTAN, IT
IS UNNERVING ITS NEIGHBORS. THEY ARE NOT SURE WHAT TO EXPECT, AND
SOME EXPECT THE WORST FROM THE ZEALOUS ISLAMISTS WHO HAVE BROUGHT
A MEASURE OF PEACE AS WELL AS RIGID RULE TO THE LONG SUFFERING
COUNTRY. AT A RECENT WASHINGTON CONFERENCE, SPEAKERS DESCRIBED
THE TALEBAN'S IMPACT ON SURROUNDING NATIONS. VOA'S ED WARNER
REPORTS.
TEXT: ONCE AFGHANISTAN REPELLED THE SOVIET INVADERS, THE WORLD
MADE THE MISTAKE OF NEGLECTING IT. THAT WAS THE GENERAL OPINION
OF PARTICIPANTS AT A DISCUSSION HELD BY THE U-S INSTITUTE OF
PEACE AND THE CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE.
NOW THE WORLD IS PAYING THE PRICE, SAID ZALMAY KHALILZAD,
DIRECTOR OF A U-S AIR FORCE STRATEGY PROGRAM AT THE RESEARCH
ORGANIZATION "RAND:"
// KHALILZAD ACT //
AFGHANISTAN IS NOW A GLOBAL PROBLEM IN TERMS OF A
HAVEN FOR SOME OF THE WORLD'S MOST LETHAL ANTI-U-S
TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS. AFGHANISTAN IS A MAJOR
EXPORTER OF DRUGS TO EUROPE AND INCREASINGLY TO THE
UNITED STATES. DEVELOPMENTS IN AFGHANISTAN HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO THREATEN REGIONAL STABILITY IN THE GULF,
IN CENTRAL ASIA AND IN SOUTH ASIA BY SUCKING THE
OTHER COUNTRIES IN OR BY SPREADING THE PROBLEMS FROM
AFGHANISTAN TO THE OTHER AREAS.
// END ACT //
MR. KHALILZAD SAID AFGHANISTAN DESERVED MORE HELP AFTER ITS KEY
ROLE IN BRINGING DOWN THE SOVIET EMPIRE.
THE COUNTRY THAT FEELS MOST THREATENED BY AFGHANISTAN AT THE
MOMENT IS IRAN. AS TALEBAN FORCES APPROACHED THE IRANIAN BORDER,
THEY KILLED A GROUP OF IRANIAN DIPLOMATS WHO MAY HAVE BEEN
ADVISING THE ANTI-TALEBAN OPPOSITION.
IRAN ERUPTED, SAID GEOFFREY KEMP, DIRECTOR OF REGIONAL STRATEGIC
PROGRAMS AT WASHINGTON'S NIXON CENTER:
// KEMP ACT //
THE MURDER OF IRANIAN DIPLOMATS BY TALEBAN FORCES,
WHETHER AUTHORIZED OR NOT, HAS CREATED AN OUTRAGE
THROUGHOUT IRAN. IRAN IS A VERY PLURALISTIC SOCIETY IN
LOTS OF WAYS. NEWS TRAVELS FAST. THIS HAS BEEN ON THE
FRONT PAGES OF ALL THE NEWSPAPERS AND ON THE RADIO AND
TELEVISION STATIONS. THERE IS A STRONG NATIONALISM AND
DESIRE FOR REVENGE, AND THAT IS SOMETHING THE POLITICAL
LEADERSHIP HAS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT.
// END ACT //
MR. KEMP SAID WAR WITH AFGHANISTAN WOULD DISCREDIT IRAN'S
MODERATES AND SET BACK THE MOVEMENT TOWARD A MORE OPEN SOCIETY.
IRAN'S CONSERVATIVES WOULD LIKE NOTHING BETTER: THE PERFECT
EXCUSE TO CLAMP DOWN ON LIBERAL TENDENCIES.
PAKISTAN HAS BEEN AIDING AND TO SOME EXTENT DIRECTING THE
TALEBAN, BUT THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY TO PAKISTAN'S ADVANTAGE,
SAID PAULA NEWBERG, A SENIOR POLICY ADVISER AT THE UNITED NATIONS
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM. SHE BELIEVES THIS CLOSE ASSOCIATION WITH THE
TALEBAN IS ENDANGERING PAKISTAN'S FRAGILE POLITICAL SYSTEM:
// NEWBERG ACT //
THE POROUS BORDERS ALLOW NOT ONLY TERRORISM TO FLOURISH,
BUT THEY ALLOW A NARCOTICS TRADE TO FLOURISH THAT HAS
UNFORTUNATELY ENRICHED MILITARY LEADERS IN AFGHANISTAN
ACROSS THE BOARD. IT HAS PUT PAKISTAN AT ODDS WITH
CENTRAL ASIA, A PLACE THAT IT HAD HOPED WOULD PROVIDE
THEM AN OUTLET FOR PRODUCTS AND ECONOMIC PROFIT, AND IT
HAS PUT IT AT ODDS WITH IRAN, WITH RUSSIA AND WITH
INDIA.
// END ACT //
MS NEWMAN SAID PAKISTAN LED THE WORLD TO BELIEVE IT COULD CONTROL
THE TALEBAN. BUT IT CANNOT.
THE FIGHTING IN AFGHANISTAN HAS ALSO BROUGHT RUSSIA BACK AS A KEY
PLAYER, OFFERING HELP TO THE ANTI-TALEBAN FORCES IT HAD ONCE
FOUGHT. THIS IMPERILS THE INDEPENDENCE OF THE CENTRAL ASIAN
NATIONS, ACCORDING TO MARTHA OLCOTT, A SENIOR ASSOCIATE AT
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT:
// OLCOTT ACT //
SO ALL THE CENTRAL ASIANS WANT TO WEAN THEMSELVES FROM
THE RUSSIAN SECURITY NET. BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE
TALEBAN IN AFGHANISTAN AND THEIR PERCEPTION OF WHAT THE
TALEBAN MEANS FOR THEM HAS MADE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR
THE CENTRAL ASIANS TO DEVELOP THE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE
IS A BREATHING SPACE IN WHICH THEY IMPROVE THEIR
SECURITY SKILLS.
// END ACT //
MARTHA OLCOTT SAID RUSSIA ENCOURAGES THE CENTRAL ASIAN NATIONS TO
SHARE ITS FEAR OF MILITANT ISLAM SPREADING FROM THE TALEBAN.
A SPOKESWOMAN FOR THE TALEBAN TOOK EXCEPTION. LAILI HELMS, WHO
HAS WORKED FOR HUMANITARIAN AID MISSIONS IN AFGHANISTAN, SAID
LIKE IT OR NOT, THE WORLD HAD BETTER GET USED TO THE TALEBAN AND
LEARN WHO THEY ARE. THEY ARE NOT, SHE SAID, AS THEY ARE PICTURED:
// HELMS ACT //
THEY ARE THE CLEAREST EXPRESSION OF THE WILL OF A
FIERCELY INDEPENDENT PEOPLE WHO NEVER BOW TO ANY TYPE OF
TYRANNY. MAKE NO MISTAKE: WHETHER IT SUITS THE WORLD OR
NOT, THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN OF ALL ETHNICITIES HAVE
MADE THEIR CHOICE IN THEIR PATH TO PEACE. IT IS NOW UP
TO THE WORLD TO LISTEN TO THEM, TO WORK WITH THEM, AND
TO HELP THEM REBUILD THEIR COUNTRY.
// END ACT //
LAILI HELMS SAID MANY AFGHANS BELIEVE OUTSIDE POWERS WANT TO KEEP
THEM DIVIDED FOR THEIR VARIOUS PURPOSES, BUT THE TALEBAN HAVE
UNITED THEM AND BROUGHT PEACE AND SECURITY ALONG WITH SEVERE
ISLAMIC RULE TO THIS WAR-WEARY LAND.
WITH THEIR POWER ASSURED, SHE SAID, THEIR RULE WILL LIGHTEN AND
MODERATE. THE TALEBAN WANT TO OCCUPY A RESPECTABLE POSITION IN
THE WORLD. THE WORLD, AS SHE ACKNOWLEDGED, REMAINS UNSURE.
THE UNITED NATIONS STILL REFUSES TO RECOGNIZE THE TELEBAN AS THE
GOVERNMENT OF AFGHANSITAN. (SIGNED)
NEB/PT
02-Oct-98 7:57 PM EDT (2357 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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