DATE=09/12/98
TYPE=ON THE LINE
NUMBER=1-00669
TITLE=THE STRUGGLE FOR AFGHANISTAN
EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037
CONTENT=
THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE
ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES
POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES. THIS WEEK,
"THE STRUGGLE FOR AFGHANISTAN." HERE IS YOUR
HOST, ROBERT REILLY.
HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE. THE AFGHAN
PEOPLE HAVE KNOWN LITTLE BUT WAR AND SUFFERING
FOR TWO DECADES. AFGHANISTAN HAS BEEN A
BATTLEGROUND SINCE THE SOVIET UNION INVADED THE
COUNTRY IN 1979. TEN YEARS LATER, THE DEFEATED
SOVIETS LEFT. THE COMMUNIST GOVERNMENT THEY
SUPPORTED WAS OVERTHROWN IN 1992 BY AFGHAN
RESISTANCE FORCES. SINCE THEN, RIVAL RESISTANCE
GROUPS HAVE TURNED ON EACH OTHER, WITH SUPPORT
FROM OUTSIDE POWERS. TODAY, AFGHANISTAN LIES IN
RUINS, WITH NINETY PERCENT OF THE COUNTRY
CONTROLLED BY THE EXTREMIST ISLAMIC MOVEMENT
KNOWN AS THE TALEBAN.
JOINING ME TODAY TO DISCUSS THE STRUGGLE FOR
AFGHANISTAN ARE THREE EXPERTS. ZALMAY KHALILZAD
IS DIRECTOR OF THE STRATEGY AND DOCTRINE PROGRAM
AT THE RAND CORPORATION AND FORMER ASSISTANT
UNDERSECRETARY OF DEFENSE. KHALID DURAN IS A
MIDDLE EAST ANALYST AND EDITOR OF THE JOURNAL,
TRANSISLAM. AND KENNETH TIMMERMAN IS A
SPECIALIST IN MIDDLE EAST AFFAIRS AND PUBLISHER
OF THE NEWSLETTER, IRAN BRIEF. WELCOME TO THE
PROGRAM.
MR. KHALILZAD, HOW DO YOU ASSESS THE CURRENT
SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN TODAY?
KHALILZAD: SINCE THE SOVIET DEPARTURE, TWO FACTORS HAVE
SHAPED THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN. ONE IS A
POWER STRUGGLE AMONG VARIOUS FACTIONS, INITIALLY
THOSE WHO HAD FOUGHT THE SOVIET UNION FIGHTING
EACH OTHER, AND IN MORE RECENT TIMES, THE NEW
GROUP, THE TALEBAN THAT YOU REFERRED TO, WHO
CAME TO THE SCENE IN 1994 - 95 AGAINST A
COALITION OF OTHER FORCES. SOME OF THEM WHO
WERE RESISTANCE LEADERS DURING THE SOVIET ERA
AND OTHERS WHO WERE WITH THE COMMUNIST
GOVERNMENT OF AFGHANISTAN FIGHTING EACH OTHER.
THIS INTERNAL STRUGGLE WAS PLAYED OUT IN THE
CONTEXT OF SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL COMPETITION FOR
INFLUENCE THAT INVOLVED AFGHANISTAN BUT ALSO THE
STRUGGLE MORE BROADLY FOR THE REGION AS A WHOLE.
AND IN AFGHANISTAN, THE PLAYERS WERE LARGELY
IRAN AND PAKISTAN, WITH RUSSIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ASIA ALSO INVOLVED.
HOST: LET ME GET TO MR. DURAN, TO ASK YOU ABOUT THE,
LET US SAY, RELIGIOUS AND/OR IDEOLOGICAL
COMPOSITION OF THE COMPETING GROUPS WITHIN
AFGHANISTAN, AND HOW MUCH DOES THAT ANIMATE THE
STRUGGLE, AND HOW MUCH OF IT IS SIMPLY PURE
POWER?
DURAN: IT CERTAINLY DOES ANIMATE A LOT, ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THAT WHAT DOMINATES TODAY
IN AFGHANISTAN HAS ALL BEEN CREATED, IN TERMS OF
RELIGION, AFTER '78. THERE WAS VERY LITTLE
ISLAMISM IN AFGHANISTAN BEFORE '78. THAT IS
WHAT THERE NOW IS, A PRODUCT OF NON-AFGHAN OR
FOREIGN CONSERVATIVES.
HOST: YOU MEAN THE RADICAL FORM OF ISLAM IS AN IMPORT?
FROM WHERE?
DURAN: AFGHANS TRADITIONALLY SAY FROM ARABIA. BUT NOW,
PRIMARILY FROM PAKISTAN AND TO SOME EXTENT, FROM
IRAN. USUALLY THE C-I-A IS BLAMED FOR HAVING
TRAINED THOSE ISLAMISTS. THAT IS ONLY PARTIALLY
TRUE.
HOST: YOU MEAN FOR HAVING SUPPORTED THEM DURING THE
WAR AGAINST THE SOVIETS?
DURAN: IT'S ACTUALLY PAKISTAN, BECAUSE THE PAKISTANIS
HAD THE FULL CONTROL OVER THAT. THE C-I-A DID
LITTLE MORE THAN SUPPLY WEAPONS AND MONEY. THE
REAL THING WAS DONE BY THE PAKISTANIS. THEY
FIRST, IN A SENSE, PRACTICALLY FORCED THE AFGHAN
REFUGEES TO BECOME MEMBERS OF THE ISLAMIST
PARTIES.
HOST: WHY WAS IT IN PAKISTAN'S INTEREST TO DO THIS?
DURAN: BECAUSE TRADITIONALLY AFGHANS IN THE MAJORITY
ARE NATIONALISTS AND THERE HAS BEEN A LONG
ANTAGONISM BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES. THE
PAKISTANIS WANTED TO TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO
SEE TO IT THAT THESE PROBLEMS WHICH THEY HAD
WITH NATIONALISTS OF AFGHANISTAN SHOULD NEVER
HAPPEN AGAIN IN THE FUTURE, PARTICULARLY BECAUSE
PAKISTAN ALWAYS THINKS OF INDIA, OF FUTURE WARS,
WHAT ARE CALLED THE NEXT ROUND WITH INDIA. AND
IN FORMER TIMES, THEY ALWAYS HAD THIS FEAR.
HOST: THEY DIDN'T WANT A TWO-FRONT WAR. LET ME
QUICKLY GET TO KEN TIMMERMAN AND ASK FOR YOUR
REACTION TO THIS.
TIMMERMAN: I THINK WHAT WE'RE SEEING RIGHT NOW IS A PROXY
WAR GOING ON. AND YOU HAVE TWO COMPETING
REGIONAL POWERS, PAKISTAN AND IRAN, WHICH ARE
ARMING THE SIDES THAT ARE FIGHTING EACH OTHER IN
MAZAR-E-SHARIF AND IN THE WESTERN PART OF
PAKISTAN. I WAS IN PAKISTAN RECENTLY AND THE
PAKISTANIS RECENTLY HAD BEEN CLOSELY TRACKING
IRANIAN ARMS SHIPMENTS TO THE HAZARAS AND TO
THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE. AND IN ONE SINGLE WEEK IN
THE MONTH OF MARCH OF THIS YEAR THERE WERE
TWENTY-EIGHT SEPARATE FLIGHTS OF WEAPONS COMING
IN FROM IRAN TO WESTERN AFGHANISTAN. AND I'M
SURE ON THE PAKISTANI SIDE, YOU HAVE AT LEAST AS
MUCH, IF NOT MORE, GOING IN TO HELP THE TALEBAN.
SO YOU REALLY HAVE A PROXY WAR GOING ON.
HOST: MR. DURAN EXPLAINED TO US WHAT PAKISTAN'S
INTEREST IS IN SECURING THEIR BORDER WITH
AFGHANISTAN BECAUSE OF THE ANTAGONISM WITH
INDIA. WHAT IS DRIVING IRAN'S INTEREST IN
AFGHANISTAN?
TIMMERMAN: I THINK PRIMARILY THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC IN IRAN
SEES THEMSELVES AS A PROTECTOR OF AFGHAN SHI'AS.
THEY'RE KNOWN AS HAZARS IN AFGHANISTAN. AND
BEYOND THAT, I THINK THEY'RE TRYING TO CREATE A
LARGER ZONE OF INFLUENCE. BUT THEY REACT VERY,
VERY STRONGLY WHEN THERE ARE REPORTED MASSACRES
OF HAZARS AS THERE HAVE BEEN IN MAZAR-E-SHARIF
BY THE TALEBAN.
HOST: BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, THAT'S ONLY SOME FIFTEEN
PERCENT OF THE POPULATION, AND THE MAJORITY OF
AFGHANISTAN DOES NOT SUBSCRIBE TO SHI'ISM.
KHALILZAD: THE MAJORITY OF THE AFGHANS ARE SUNNIS. I
THINK, BESIDES CONCERNS ABOUT SHI'ITES, I THINK
IRAN ALSO IS CONCERNED ABOUT DEVELOPMENTS IN
AFGHANISTAN AFFECTING THEIR INTERESTS IN CENTRAL
ASIA. PAKISTAN AND IRAN ARE IN COMPETITION FOR
INFLUENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA FOR ROUTES FOR
BRINGING OIL OR GAS FROM THAT REGION TO WORLD
MARKETS. INSTABILITY AND CONFLICT IN
AFGHANISTAN MAKES IT DIFFICULT FOR AFGHANISTAN
TO BE USED AS A CORRIDOR. IRAN WOULD LIKE FOR
ITSELF TO BECOME SUCH A CORRIDOR. I THINK
THAT'S ALSO A FACTOR. AND I THINK IRAN DOES NOT
WANT THE ANTI - TALEBAN FORCES TO BE DEFEATED.
AND AT THE PRESENT TIME, IT HAS DEPLOYED A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FORCE ON THE AFGHAN BORDER
TO GIVE ITSELF THE OPTION OF PERHAPS INTERVENING
DIRECTLY IN THE WAR OR, BY FORCING THE TALEBAN
TO DEPLOY A LOT OF FORCES IN THE REGION WHERE
THE IRANIANS ARE DEPLOYED, SO THEY WILL HAVE
LESSER FORCES IN OTHER AREAS AND THEREFORE
OPENING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE OPPOSITION, OR
PERHAPS HELPING THE OPPOSITION INDIRECTLY TO
TAKE OVER HERAT. THERE ARE REPORTS THAT THEY
ARE TRAINING AS MANY AS TWO TO THREE THOUSAND
SUPPORTERS OF THE FORMER GOVERNOR OF HERAT, WHO
MAY BE BROUGHT IN WITH THE IRANIANS OR MAY BE
UNLEASHED AGAINST THE TALEBAN IN THE HERAT AREA.
HOST: YES, KEN TIMMERMAN.
TIMMERMAN: I'D LIKE TO PICK UP ON THAT. I THINK OIL IS A
VERY LARGE FACTOR HERE. AND MANY ANALYSTS IN
THE REGION TALK ABOUT A NEW CHAPTER IN THE GREAT
GAME, GREAT GAME FOR GREAT POWER INFLUENCE.
THERE IS AN AMERICAN COMPANY CALLED UNOCAL,
WHICH HAS A PROJECT TO BRING CENTRAL ASIAN GAS
THROUGH AFGHANISTAN INTO PAKISTAN AND EVENTUALLY
TO INDIA. THE IRANIANS WOULD ABSOLUTELY LIKE TO
FRUSTRATE THAT PROJECT AND TO STOP IT. AND THE
BEST WAY FOR THEM TO STOP IT IS TO PROMOTE
INSTABILITY AND WARFARE IN AFGHANISTAN.
HOST: COULD YOU ALSO COMMENT ON RUSSIA'S INFLUENCE IN
THIS MATTER?
TIMMERMAN: AND IN THIS PARTICULAR INSTANCE, THE RUSSIANS
ARE ALLIED WITH IRAN. THEY'RE BOTH FIGHTING ON
THE SAME SIDE. SOMETIMES THE IRANIANS WILL USE
RUSSIAN CONTROLLED AIRPORTS TO DELIVER ARMS TO
THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE, TO THE OPPOSITION TO THE
TALEBAN.
HOST: BECAUSE INSTABILITY INSIDE AFGHANISTAN IS ALSO
IN RUSSIA'S INTEREST IN TERMS OF THE ROUTING OF
THE OIL AND GAS?
TIMMERMAN: RUSSIA WOULD ALSO LIKE TO SEE OIL AND GAS GO
THROUGH THEIR TERRITORY, TERRITORY THAT THEY
CONTROL. THE IRANIANS WANT TO SEE THE PIPELINE
GO THROUGH IRANIAN TERRITORY. RIGHT NOW,
THEY'RE FACING U.S. SANCTIONS. THIS HAS
CRIPPLED THEIR OIL INDUSTRY. IT HAS DAMAGED
THEIR ECONOMY TO A GREAT DEAL. SO, IF THEY CAN
FRUSTRATE THE AFGHAN PIPELINE, THEY THINK THAT
THEY WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF CONVINCING
THE AMERICANS TO LIFT THE SANCTIONS TO LET THE
OIL PIPELINES AND GAS PIPELINES GO THROUGH IRAN.
HOST: THE COMPANIES THAT ARE POTENTIALLY INTERESTED IN
THIS VERY LUCRATIVE PIPELINE HAVE MADE IT CLEAR
TO THE TALEBAN THAT THEY CAN'T BEGIN ANY KIND OF
COMMERCIAL ENTERPRISE WITH THEM UNLESS THEY'RE
RECOGNIZED AS THE GOVERNMENT OF AFGHANISTAN. IT
APPEARS THAT THEY'RE ON THE CUSP OF A COMPLETE
MILITARY VICTORY, CONTROLLING AS THEY DO NOW
NINETY PERCENT OF THE COUNTRY. WHAT'S THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE TALEBAN WOULD BE RECOGNIZED,
BECAUSE TODAY, MOST COUNTRIES STILL RECOGNIZE
PRESIDENT [BURHANUDDIN] RABBANI'S GOVERNMENT
THAT'S BEEN EXPELLED FROM KABUL?
KHALILZAD: I THINK THE PROSPECTS IN THE NEAR TERM FOR
RECOGNIZING THE TALEBAN ARE NOT VERY GOOD. AND
THAT HAS LARGELY TO DO WITH SOME POLICIES AND
PRACTICES OF THE TALEBAN THAT MANY COUNTRIES
FIND OBJECTIONABLE.
HOST: WELL, FOR INSTANCE, SECRETARY OF STATE MADELEINE
ALBRIGHT HAS MADE CLEAR THAT THERE WILL BE NO
RECOGNITION OF THE TALEBAN UNLESS SOME THINGS
CHANGE. AND AMONG THE THINGS SHE MENTIONED WAS
THEY'RE GIVING SANCTUARY TO OSAMA BIN LADEN.
KHALILZAD: I THINK THAT'S ONE. THESE TERRORISTS, SUCH AS
BIN LADEN, HAVE BEEN IN AFGHANISTAN IN THE
TALEBAN TERRITORY NOW FOR SOME TIME. THERE IS
ALSO THE ISSUE OF NARCOTICS. THERE IS A GREAT
DEAL OF OPIUM PRODUCED IN THE TALEBAN AREAS THAT
IS BEING EXPORTED.
HOST: LET ME STOP ON THE DRUG ISSUE AND ASK MR. DURAN
BECAUSE OF YOUR KNOWLEDGE OF THE INTERIOR
IDEOLOGIES OF THESE GROUPS, HOW IS IT THAT THE
TALEBAN, WHICH HAS A DEPARTMENT FOR THE
PROPAGATION OF VIRTUE AND THE SUPPRESSION OF
VICE, IS ENGAGED IN DRUG TRAFFICKING WHEN, IF
THEY FIND SOMEONE WHO'S HAD A SIP OF LIQUOR,
THEY PUBLICLY FLOG HIM?
DURAN: THEY'RE VERY PRAGMATIC IN MANY WAYS THAT WE
OFTEN OVERLOOK. THEY APPEAR EXTREMELY STRINGENT
IN SOME MATTERS, AS WE ALL KNOW, BUT IN OTHERS,
THEY'RE VERY, VERY FLEXIBLE. THEY DID
ORIGINALLY SAY THAT THEY WOULD PROHIBIT DRUG
TRADE, BUT ACTUALLY ONE MAY SAY, WITHOUT A GRAIN
OF EXAGGERATION, THAT IT HAS RATHER INCREASED
SINCE THEY HAVE TAKEN CONTROL FOR TWO REASONS.
THERE IS A VERY STRONG, VERY POWERFUL OPIUM
MAFIA IN AFGHANISTAN, KIND OF LITTLE WARLORDS
WHO HAVE JOINED THE TALEBAN, THE PASHTUNS IN THE
SOUTH. AND THE TALEBAN CANNOT AFFORD TO
ALIENATE THOSE GROUPS BECAUSE THE TALEBAN ARE
IN THEMSELVES NOT SUCH A HUGE THING THAT'S NOT
SO HOMOGENEOUS. IT'S ALSO A KIND OF A COALITION
OF VARIOUS GROUPS AND A REFLECTION WITHIN THEM
AND A DANGER OF THEMSELVES FALLING APART.
HOST: REALLY? BECAUSE YOU GET THE OPPOSITE IMPRESSION
THROUGH THE NEWSPEOPLE REPORT ON THE TALEBAN
THAT THEY ARE A VERY HOMOGENEOUS GROUP, ANIMATED
BY THIS FUNDAMENTALIST ISLAMIC VISION.
DURAN: THE CORE OF THEM, YES. AFGHAN REFUGEE KIDS WHO
HAVE BEEN BROUGHT UP IN PAKISTANI REFUGEE CAMPS
AND BEEN THOROUGHLY INDOCTRINATED AND KNOW
NOTHING BUT THESE NARROW TEACHINGS. BUT THAT'S
JUST THE CORE OF IT. LATER ON, THEY ARE JOINED
OR THEY'RE FORCED TO JOIN THEM FROM ALL STRATA
OF AFGHAN SOCIETY. MILITARY OFFICERS FROM THE
COMMUNIST REGIME AMONG THEM, ALL KINDS OF
PEOPLE. AND MANY OF THEM HAVE FORCED, NOT QUITE
VOLUNTARILY. SO THAT IS GOING TO BREAK ASUNDER
SOONER OR LATER IF THERE IS NOT SOME EXTERNAL
PRESSURE. IN A SENSE, A WAR WITH IRAN MIGHT NOT
BE ALL THAT UNWELCOME TO THE TALEBAN. IT MAY
HAVE A SIMILAR EFFECT LIKE IRAQ'S WAR WITH IRAN,
BECAUSE THE MOMENT IRAN ATTACKS AFGHANISTAN,
THEN EVEN THOUGH PEOPLE DON'T LIKE THE TALEBAN
RULE, THIS AFGHAN NATIONALISM WILL RESURGE AND
SO ON.
HOST: KEN TIMMERMAN, WITH SOME SEVENTY THOUSAND
IRANIAN TROOPS MASSED ON THE AFGHAN BORDER UNDER
THE SUPPOSED RUBRIC OF MILITARY EXERCISES, HOW
LIKELY DO YOU THINK IT IS THAT THEY WOULD RESORT
TO THAT? ISN'T IT REALLY A SIGN OF MORE OR LESS
THE BANKRUPTCY OF IRANIAN POLICY IN AFGHANISTAN?
TIMMERMAN: I THINK THE IRANIANS WILL BE IN FOR A GREAT
SHOCK IF THEY ATTACKED AFGHANISTAN. IF THEY
ATTACK THE TALEBAN, I THINK THEY WOULD SUFFER
MILITARY REVERSES THAT THEY'RE NOT EXPECTING AND
THAT POLITICALLY WOULD BE TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE
IN TEHRAN. AND I THINK BECAUSE OF THAT, THEY
RECENTLY, THE SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH [SAYYED
ALI] KHAMENEI SAID NO, WE ARE NOT GOING TO GO
IN. AND WE'RE JUST DOING THESE EXERCISES. WE
WILL NOT ATTACK AFGHANISTAN. I THINK HE'S
REALIZED THAT HIS POLITICAL FUTURE IS ON THE
LINE AND MILITARILY, IRAN'S NOT IN A GOOD
SITUATION.
HOST: SO THE TALEBAN IS THAT SIGNIFICANT A MILITARY
FORCE THAT THEY COULD TAKE ON SEVENTY THOUSAND
TROOPS?
TIMMERMAN: THE TALEBAN HAVE GOOD TRAINING. THEY HAVE
DEMONSTRATED GOOD LOGISTICS AND COMMUNICATIONS
IN THE FIELD. THEY CAN DO COORDINATED ARMS
ATTACKS. THEY HAVE BENEFITED FROM THE
SOVIET-TRAINED OFFICERS WHO KHALID DURAN JUST
SAID, FROM THE FORMER AFGHAN SOVIET-OCCUPIED
ARMY. THEY'VE ALSO BENEFITED FROM THE PAKISTANI
ARMY AND PAKISTAN'S EXPERTISE. THEY HAVE
SURPRISED ALL OF THEIR ADVERSARIES ON THE FIELD.
HOST: MR. DURAN.
DURAN: AN ADDITIONAL FACT. IT'S OFTEN ALLEGED THAT THE
PAKISTANIS SEND IN THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS OF
ARMY OFFICERS AND SO ON. THERE'S SOME TRUTH TO
THAT, BUT WHAT ACTUALLY HAS COME FROM PAKISTAN
IS SOMETHING ELSE. PROBABLY MORE THAN TEN
THOUSAND YOUNG KIDS HAVE GONE FROM PAKISTAN TO
JOIN THE JIHAD IN AFGHANISTAN. MANY OF THEM
RUN AWAY FROM HOME IN THE DARKNESS OF THE NIGHT.
THEY LEAVE THEIR PARENTS AND GO IN TO THE JIHAD.
THAT'S THE ADVENTURE OF A GENERATION FOR
PAKISTAN TODAY. IT'S A BIG SOCIAL PROBLEM AND
THERE ARE LOTS OF STUDIES ON THAT IN PAKISTAN
THESE DAYS. THEY ARE THERE AND THEY ARE FILLED
WITH THAT KIND OF MISSIONARY ZEAL, MORE THAN THE
AFGHANS THEMSELVES. AND THEY SWELL THE RANKS OF
THE TALEBAN. THAT'S WHERE THEY GET A LOT OF
FORCES. BECAUSE THESE KIDS ARE PREPARED TO GO
TO DEATH, LIKE THE IRANIAN CHILDREN IN THE WAR
AGAINST IRAQ.
KHALILZAD: I THINK IF THE IRANIANS WERE TO ATTACK, IN THE
INITIAL PHASES OF THE CONFLICT, THEY'RE LIKELY
HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADVANCES. I DON'T THINK
THE TALEBAN ARE DEPLOYED IN NUMBERS THAT COULD
WITHSTAND AN INITIAL ONSLAUGHT OF PERHAPS EVEN
TO THE EXTENT OF TAKING OVER HERAT. I THINK THE
CHALLENGE FOR THE IRANIANS WOULD BE WHAT DO THEY
DO AFTER THEY'VE COME IN. AND I THINK THEY FACE
THE PROSPECT OF A PROTRACTED WAR. AND THEY
COULD MAKE THE TALEBAN THE RALLYING CRY FOR
AFGHAN NATIONALISM. THAT WOULD WORK AGAINST
THEIR LONGER-TERM INTEREST.
HOST: AS MR. TIMMERMAN SAID, THAT SEEMS A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY NOW. WHAT MUST THE TALEBAN DO NEXT? I
INTERRUPTED YOU WHEN YOU CAME TO DRUGS. IT'S
ONE THING THAT THEY WOULD HAVE TO CLEAN UP TO
GAIN INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION.
KHALILZAD: I THINK THEY HAVE TO ALSO CLEAN UP THEIR ACTS ON
THEIR TREATMENT OF AFGHANS, BOTH SORT OF
MINORITIES BECAUSE THE TALEBAN ARE PREDOMINANTLY
PASHTUN AND AFGHANISTAN IS A MULTI-ETHNIC
POLITY. AND TWO, THEY HAVE TO DO BETTER, A LOT
BETTER THAN THEY ARE DOING WITH REGARD TO
TREATMENT OF WOMEN AND GIRLS, IN REGARD TO THEIR
EDUCATION.
HOST: HOW DO THEY TREAT WOMEN?
KHALILZAD: NOT VERY WELL. THERE ARE ALL SORTS OF DRACONIAN
RESTRICTIONS THAT THEY HAVE IMPOSED ON THE
TREATMENT OF WOMEN.
HOST: NO EDUCATION.
KHALILZAD: NO EDUCATION FOR GIRLS. WOMEN HAVE LIMITATIONS
OF THE KIND OF CLOTHING THEY CAN WEAR. NO WHITE
SOCKS ALLOWED. NO SHOES WITH HEELS ALLOWED.
HOST: NO WORK OUTSIDE THE HOME EITHER.
DURAN: NOT ALLOWED TO LEAVE THE HOUSE AT ALL.
HOST: CAN'T LEAVE THE HOUSE WITHOUT A MALE ESCORT FROM
YOUR FAMILY.
KHALILZAD: I THINK THAT FOR ALL THESE REASONS, I THINK IT'S
GOING TO BE DIFFICULT FOR THE TALEBAN TO BE
ACCEPTED. THEY FACE A CHOICE, I BELIEVE, THAT
IF THEY WANT THE WORLD TO ACCEPT THEM, THEY HAVE
TO BEHAVE ACCORDING TO CERTAIN RULES THAT ARE
BROADLY ACCEPTED BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.
HOST: FROM WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE TALEBAN IN THIS
RATHER RADICAL-SEEMING IDEOLOGY THAT DOESN'T
EVEN ALLOW PAPER BAGS BECAUSE THEY MIGHT CONTAIN
A RECYCLED PAGE OF THE KORAN, HOW LIKELY IS IT
THAT PEOPLE ANIMATED BY THE SPIRIT OF JIHAD ARE
GOING TO MAKE THESE KINDS OF ACCOMMODATIONS TO
GAIN INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION AND ESPECIALLY
FROM THE UNITED STATES?
DURAN: I BELIEVE THAT, AS I SAID, BEHIND ALL THAT MASK
OF STRINGENCY, OF STRICTNESS IN RELIGIOUS
MATTERS, THEY ALSO HAVE SOME KIND OF PRAGMATISM,
WHICH ALLOWS THEM SOMETIMES TO MAKE CONCESSIONS.
THEY CAN ALWAYS COME UP WITH SOME NEW RULING TO
BRING IN SOME RELIGIOUS LEADER WHO SAYS OKAY ON
SUCH AND SUCH A CONSENSUS COULD BE CHANGED.
WHAT I THINK IS VERY GRAVE FOR THEM IS THE
GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION. UNTIL RECENTLY, WE HAD
TWO BIG COALITIONS CONFRONTING EACH OTHER IN
AFGHANISTAN. ON THE ONE HAND, IRAN PLUS INDIA
AND RUSSIA, -- RUSSIA WITH ITS FORMER MUSLIM
REPUBLICS, TURKMENISTAN, UZBEKISTAN, TAJIKISTAN
ON THE ONE SIDE. ON THE OTHER SIDE, PAKISTAN,
WITH SAUDI ARABIA AND THE UNITED STATES. NOW
THE TALEBAN WITH THEIR POLICIES HAVE LOST THE
UNITED STATES AND TO SOME EXTENT ALSO SAUDI
ARABIA. OF COURSE, THE UNITED STATES AND SAUDI
ARABIA ARE ALWAYS READY TO REJOIN THAT COALITION
WITH PAKISTAN, BUT AT THE MOMENT, BECAUSE OF
OSAMA BIN LADEN, AMERICA IS ANTAGONIZED. SAUDI
ARABIA IS ALSO ANTAGONIZED. MOST OF THE ARABS
AND THE AMERICANS WOULD LIKE FINALLY THIS UNOCAL
PIPELINE PROJECT TO MATERIALIZE. UNDER PRESENT
CIRCUMSTANCES, IT CANNOT BECAUSE THE TALEBAN
HAVE BEEN TOO OUT OF CONTROL IN SEVERAL WAYS.
THE SAUDIS SENT A DELEGATION SOME TIME AGO,
WANTED THEM TO HAND OVER OSAMA BIN LADEN OR SEND
HIM AWAY, SEND HIM OUT OF AFGHANISTAN, BUT THEY
REFUSED TO DO THAT. IT'S LIKE BITING THE HAND
THAT FEEDS YOU BECAUSE MUCH OF THE TALEBAN
EXISTS DUE TO SAUDI MONEY.
HOST: I'M AFRAID THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS
WEEK. I'D LIKE TO THANK OUR GUEST -- ZALMAY
KHALILZAD FROM THE RAND CORPORATION; KHALID
DURAN, EDITOR OF TRANSISLAM; AND KENNETH
TIMMERMAN, PUBLISHER OF THE NEWSLETTER, IRAN
BRIEF -- FOR JOINING ME TO DISCUSS THE STRUGGLE
FOR AFGHANISTAN. THIS IS ROBERT REILLY FOR ON
THE LINE.
11-Sep-98 1:17 PM EDT (1717 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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