DATE=9/10/98
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-238396
TITLE=AFGHAN FIGHTING (L)
BYLINE=ALI ZAIDI
DATELINE=ISLAMABAD
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: TALEBAN FORCES ARE REPORTED TO BE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
OF ONE OF THE LAST OPPOSITION STRONGHOLDS IN AFGHANISTAN. AS ALI
ZAIDI REPORTS FROM ISLAMABAD -- TALEBAN FORCES HAVE STARTED
MOVING INTO THE THE SHIITE-MUSLIM CONTROLLED BAMIYAN PROVINCE,
WHOSE FALL COULD FURTHER ESCALATE TENSIONS BETWEEN KABUL AND
IRAN.
TEXT: THE AFGHAN ISLAMIC PRESS (A-I-P) REPORTS TALEBAN FORCES
HAVE ENTERED THE CENTRAL AFGHAN PROVINCE OF BAMIYAN.
A-I-P REPORTS THAT AFTER FIGHTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING, TALEBAN FIGHTERS HAVE CAPTURED THE TOWNS OF SAYGHAN AND
KAHMARD, AND ARE NOW AT KOTAL AKRABAT, ABOUT 25 KILOMETERS FROM
THE CITY OF BAMIYAN.
A TALEBAN SPOKESMAN IS QUOTED AS SAYING THE OPPOSITION SHIITE
HEZB-E-WAHDAT BLASTED THE ROAD LEADING TO BAMIYAN CITY IN AN
EFFORT TO STOP THE TALEBAN. TALEBAN FIGHTERS ARE SAID TO BE
CLEARING THE ROAD AT KOTAL AKRABAT.
THE TALEBAN SAYS BAMIYAN AIRPORT IS NOW WITHIN RANGE OF THEIR
ARTILLERY. THE A-I-P REPORT HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY CONFIRMED.
OPPOSITION SOURCES SAY THEY HAVE NO REPORTS OF FIGHTING IN THE
BAMIYAN AREA.
THE LOSS OF THE AIRPORT AT BAMIYAN CITY WOULD DEPRIVE THE
OPPOSITION OF ITS LAST AIR SUPPLY ROUTE, LEAVING POCKETS OF
RESISTANCE SURROUNDED BY TALEBAN FORCES.
BAMIYAN'S FALL WOULD PRACTICALLY COMPLETE THE TALEBAN'S CONTROL
OVER ALL OF AFGHANISTAN, WITH ONLY OPPOSITION ALLIANCE COMMANDER
AHMED SHAH MASOOD'S FORCES HOLDING OUT AGAINST THE TALEBAN AT
FRONTLINES NORTH OF KABUL.
BAMIYAN PROVINCE HAS REMAINED UNDER SEIGE BY TALEBAN FORCES FOR
SEVERAL MONTHS. DR. RASUL BAKHSH RAIS, DIRECTOR OF THE AREA
STUDIES CENTER AT ISLAMABAD'S QUAID-E-AZAM UNIVERSITY, SAYS THE
TALEBAN COULD HAVE CAPTURED THE AREA EARLIER, BUT DID NOT DO SO
OUT OF STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS.
// RAIS ACT //
IN(A) MILITARY SENSE THE (ETHNIC SHIITE) HAZARAJAT, AND
PARTICULARLY BAMIYAN TOWN, WERE VULNERABLE TO THE
TALEBAN, BUT THE TALEBAN OBSERVED A KIND OF A
SELF-RESTRAINT BECAUSE THEY WANTED TO KEEP AN OPENING
WITH IRAN AND ALSO WITH THE HEZB-E-WAHDAT, AND ALSO
PROBABLY UNDER SOME INFLUENCE OR PRESSURE FROM PAKISTAN.
// END ACT //
HE SAYS WHILE BAMIYAN WAS THE LAST STRONGHOLD OF THE SHIITE
HEZB-E-WAHDAT GROUP OPPOSED TO THE TALEBAN, IT WAS NOT A
MILITARILY POWERFUL STRONGHOLD. DR. RAIS SAYS THERE IS LITTLE
MOTIVATION IN THE OPPOSITION RANKS TO RESIST THE TALEBAN ADVANCE
IN BAMIYAN.
// RAIS ACT //
I THINK THAT THE RESISTANCE IN HAZARAJAT IS EXTREMELY
WEAK, AND THE MORALE IS EXTREMELY LOW, AND THEY ARE NOT
SUPPLIED MATERIALLY AND MILITARILY ENOUGH TO RESIST THE
TALEBAN ONSLAUGHT.
// END ACT //
THE LATEST OFFENSIVE IS LIKELY TO RAISE TENSIONS FURTHER BETWEEN
SHIITE MAJORITY IRAN AND THE LARGELY SUNNI TALEBAN AUTHORITIES.
IRAN HAS CONDUCTED LARGE-SCALE MILITARY EXERCISES ON ITS BORDER
WITH AFGHANISTAN, WHICH ANALYSTS SEE AS A THINLY VEILED THREAT TO
THE TALEBAN AND POSSIBLE PREPARATION FOR AN ATTACK ACROSS THE
BORDER.
IRAN WANTS THE TALEBAN TO ACCOUNT FOR ELEVEN MISSING IRANIAN
DIPLOMATS AND A JOURNALIST WHOM IT SAYS WERE KIDNAPPED BY TALEBAN
FORCES WHEN THEY TOOK CONTROL OF THE NORTHERN AFGHAN CITY OF
MAZAR-E-SHARIF.
TEHRAN, WHICH HAS BACKED THE NORTHERN AFGHAN ALLIANCE, HAS ALSO
EXPRESSED OUTRAGE AT UNCONFIRMED REPORTS THAT TALEBAN FORCES
KILLED LARGE NUMBERS OF SHIITES AS THEY TOOK CONTROL OF NORTHERN
AFGHANISTAN.
DR. RAIS SAYS THE FALL OF THE LAST SHIITE STRONGHOLD IN
AFGHANISTAN WILL HAVE GRAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REGION. HE SAYS
FOR IRAN TO HAVE ANY HOPE OF PLAYING A FURTHER ROLE IN
AFGHANISTAN, IT HAS NO OPTION BUT TO UNDERTAKE A DIRECT ATTACK.
BUT HE SAYS TEHRAN MAY NOT FIND MUCH SYMPATHY IN THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FOR SUCH AN ACTION, AND MAY NOT GAIN MUCH
FROM IT EITHER.(SIGNED)
NEB/AZ/PLM
10-Sep-98 8:13 AM EDT (1213 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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