DATE=9/10/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41346
TITLE=IRAN / AFGHANISTAN
BYLINE=LAURIE KASSMAN
DATELINE=LONDON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: IRAN MAY BE ABOUT TO CONDUCT NEW MILITARY EXERCISES ALONG
ITS BORDER WITH AFGHANISTAN, WHILE PRESIDENT MOHAMAD KHATAMI
URGES RESTRAINT. ANIMOSITY BETWEEN THE NEIGHBORS HAS INCREASED
SINCE THE REPORTED KILLING OF 11 IRANIAN DIPLOMATS AND A
JOURNALIST IN AFGHANISTAN. CORRESPONDENT LAURIE KASSMAN, IN
LONDON, LOOKS AT WHAT IS BEHIND THE MOUNTING HOSTILITIES.
TEXT: IRAN'S SHIITE-MUSLIM LEADERSHIP HAS LONG CRITICIZED THE
MORE RADICAL RELIGIOUS POLICIES OF THE SUNNI-MUSLIM TALEBAN
LEADERS TRYING TO SEIZE CONTROL OF AFGHANISTAN.
IRAN BACKS THE SHIITE MINORITIES AND OTHER GROUPS OPPOSED TO THE
TALEBAN TAKEOVER, AND RECOGNIZES THE OUSTED KABUL GOVERNMENT.
THE TALEBAN CHARGES IRAN SUPPLYS WEAPONS TO ITS OPPONENTS AND HAS
CALLED FOR THE UNITED NATIONS TO GET IRAN TO STOP.
TENSIONS BETWEEN IRAN AND AFGHANISTAN HAVE INCREASED IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS, AFTER IRAN ACCUSED THE TALEBAN OF HOLDING DOZENS
OF IRANIANS HOSTAGE AND AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL REPORTED THE
KILLING OF THE IRANIAN DIPLOMATS AND THOUSANDS OF AFGHAN SHIITES
DURING THE TAKEOVER OF MAZAR-I-SHARIF IN THE NORTH. THE TALEBAN
SAYS THE BODIES OF NINE IRANIAN DIPLOMATS HAVE BEEN RECOVERED.
ALI REZA NOURIZADEH OF THE LONDON-BASED CENTER FOR IRANIAN
STUDIES SAYS THE HOSTILITY IS LONG-STANDING AND COVERS MORE THAN
RELIGIOUS DIFFERENCES. IT ALSO IS LINKED TO COMPETITION OVER
ACCESS TO THE LUCRATIVE OIL FIELDS OF CENTRAL ASIA.
/// NOURIZADEH ACT //
THE QUESTION IS MUCH MORE IMPORTANT THAN A PIPELINE OR
TRADE ROUTE. AFGHANISTAN HAS NO OTHER GATE TO THE
OUTSIDE BUT IRAN AND PAKISTAN. AND WHETHER [THE]
TALEBAN WANT IT OR NOT, THEY HAVE TO DEAL WITH IRAN AND
THEY HAVE TO HAVE IRANIAN BORDERS OPEN TO THEM TO DEAL
WITH THE OUTSIDE WORLD
/// END ACT ///
ANALYSTS LIKE MR. NOURIZADEH SAY A DIRECT CONFLICT BETWEEN IRAN
AND AFGHANISTAN IS NOT LIKELY, FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS.
/// NOURIZADEH 2ND ACT ///
THIS IS A NEW IRAN. THIS IS KHATAMI'S IRAN. YOU HAVE
FIRST TO RELY ON THE POLITICAL WAY OF SOLVING THE
PROBLEM, RATHER THAN THE MILITARY ONE. IF IT WAS SEVEN
OR EIGHT-YEARS AGO, I AM SURE THE IRANIANS WOULD NOT
HESITATE TO ATTACK AFGHANISTAN.
/// END ACT ///
IRAN IS STILL TRYING TO REBUILD AN ECONOMY THAT WAS DEVASTATED BY
AN EIGHT-YEAR WAR WITH IRAQ IN THE 1980'S. IRANIANS HAVE NOT
FULLY RECOVERED EMOTIONALLY FROM THE YEARS OF BLOODSHED EITHER.
BUT THE GOVERNMENT DOES HAVE TO RESPOND TO GROWING PUBLIC ANGER
OVER THE TREATMENT OF IRANIANS AND SHIITE MINORITIES IN
AFHGANISTAN. THE SHOW OF FORCE ALONG THE BORDER MAY WELL APPEASE
THE IRANIAN PUBLIC.
MR. NOURIZADEH SAYS PRESIDENT KHATAMI'S PREFERENCE FOR A
POLITICAL SOLUTION ALSO IS AIMED AT IMPROVING IRAN'S IMAGE IN THE
WEST. THAT HAS OFTEN BEEN DONE BY DISTINGUISHING IRAN FROM THE
MORE FUNDAMENTALIST RELIGIOUS LEADERSHIP IN AFGHANISTAN.
/// NOURIZADEH ACT ///
THEREFORE, HE WOULD NOT JUST ACCEPT THE SUGGESTION BY
THE HARDLINERS THAT WE HAVE TO GO AND PUNISH TALEBAN.
AND HE WANTS TO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY WHEN HE GOES TO THE
UNITED NATIONS (IN LATE SEPTEMBER) TO SPEAK ABOUT
AFGHANISTAN AND TO DISCUSS IT WITH OTHERS. AND I AM
SURE THE IRANIANS ARE LOOKING VERY CAREFULLY TO THE
AMERICAN RESPONSE TO WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE AREA
/// END ACT ///
THE STATE DEPARTMENT HAS URGED RESTRAINT ON BOTH SIDES. BUT THE
ANNOUNCEMENT OF MORE MILITARY EXERCISES IS A BLUNT MESSAGE FROM
IRAN THAT IT IS GROWING IMPATIENT.
IRANIAN DIPLOMATS HAVE MET WITH TALEBAN OFFICIALS TO PURSUE THE
RELEASE OF MORE IRANIANS, AFTER FIVE TRUCK DRIVERS CAPTURED BY
THE TALEBAN IN NORTHERN AFGHANISTAN WERE FREED. THE UNITED
NATIONS HAS URGED AFGHANISTAN TO RELEASE ANY IRANIANS THEY ARE
HOLDING. BUT TENSIONS HAVE INCREASED AND IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTER
WARNS THE TALEBAN TO RESPOND TO IRAN'S DEMANDS BEFORE IT IS TOO
LATE. (SIGNED)
NEB/LMK/JWH/RAE
10-Sep-98 12:18 PM EDT (1618 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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