DATE=8/9/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41111
TITLE=ANALISIS: AFGHANISTAN
BYLINE=DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN
DATELINE=ISLAMABAD
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: IN AFGHANISTAN, THE TALEBAN HAVE CAPTURED MAZAR-I-SHARIF
-- THE LAST MAJOR CITY NOT UNDER THEIR CONTROL. ANALYSTS SAY IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE NORTHERN OPPOSITION TO RECOVER FROM
THIS CRUSHING BLOW. V-O-A CORRESPONDENT DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN REPORTS
FROM ISLAMABAD.
TEXT: THE FALL OF MAZAR-I-SHARIF IS AN IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFGHAN CONFLICT. MILITARILY AND ECONOMICALLY, IT IS A MAJOR
SETBACK FOR THE OPPOSITION ALLIANCE THAT HAS HELD THE NORTH OF
AFGHANISTAN FOR ALMOST TWO YEARS, SINCE THE TALEBAN CAPTURED
KABUL.
MAZAR-I-SHARIF PROVIDED A VITAL SUPPLY LINE FOR THE OPPOSITION,
WITH A LAND ROUTE FROM UZBEKISTAN AND AN AIRPORT TO RECEIVE ARMS
AND OTHER MATERIEL FROM FOREIGN ALLIES.
MAZAR-I-SHARIF WAS ALSO CONSIDERED THE POLITICAL CAPITAL OF THE
NORTHERN ALLIANCE GOVERNMENT -- SERVING AS AN ANCHOR FOR SEVERAL
OPPOSITION FACTIONS TO RALLY AROUND. LOSS OF THIS CAPITAL IS A
CRUSHING PSYCHOLOGICAL AND POLITICAL BLOW.
PROFESSOR RASUL BAKSH RAIS -- AN AFGHAN EXPERT AT THE
QUAID-I-AZAM UNIVERSITY IN ISLAMABAD -- SAYS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR THE NORTHERN OPPOSITION TO RECOVER FROM THIS DEFEAT.
// RAIS ACTUALITY //
I THINK MILITARILY, PSYCHOLOGICALLY AND POLITICALLY THE
NORTHERN ALLIANCE FOR THE MOMENT IS IN DISARRAY. IT IS
ALMOST STRANGULATED AND IT WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
FOR THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE TO RETAKE THE CITY AND PUT
TOGETHER THE KIND OF MILITARY DEFENSE AND MILITARY
STRUCTURE THAT THEY HAD ESTABLISHED IN THE REGION.
// END ACTUALITY //
ETHNIC FACTORS ALSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE PRESENT
SITUATION. THE TALEBAN ARE COMPOSED MOSTLY OF PASHTUNS WHO ARE
THE MAJORITY IN AFGHANISTAN. BUT THE NORTH IS POPULATED BY
MINORITY GROUPS THAT HAVE LONG RESISTED RULE BY THE PASHTUNS. THE
TWO LARGEST SUCH GROUPS ARE THE UZBEKS -- UNDER OPPOSITION
GENERAL ABDUL RASHID DOSTUM -- AND THE TAJIKS LED BY OPPOSITION
COMMANDER AHMAD SHAH MASOOD.
PROFESSOR RAIS SAYS THE MOST-SERIOUS MILITARY THREAT REMAINING TO
THE TALEBAN IS COMMANDER MASOOD. HE CONTROLS THE PANJSHIR VALLEY
IN THE NORTHEAST -- HIS LONG-TIME STRONGHOLD THAT THE RUSSIANS
WERE NOT ABLE TO PENETRATE DURING THE LONG SOVIET OCCUPATION OF
AFGHANISTAN.
// RAIS ACTUALITY //
THE PANJSHIR VALLEY IS SUCH AN AREA WHERE IT WOULD BE
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR THE TALEBAN TO PENETRATE.
PERHAPS THE TALEBAN MIGHT LIKE TO CO-EXIST WITH AHMAD
SHAH MASOOD AND NOT REALLY VENTURE DEEP INTO THE
PANJSHIR VALLEY AND JUST STAY ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE
REGION TO MINIMIZE THEIR LOSSES, BECAUSE MILITARILY -- I
BELIEVE -- IT WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR THE
TALEBAN TO GET INTO THAT REGION AT ALL.
// END ACTUALITY //
PROFESSOR RAIS SAYS THE TALEBAN HAVE GONE A LONG WAY TOWARDS
THEIR GOAL OF FULL TERRITORIAL CONTROL OF AFGHANISTAN. HE SAYS
-- UNLESS THERE IS A MAJOR COLLAPSE WITHIN THE RANKS OF THE
TALEBAN -- THEY WILL REMAIN IN A STRONG POSITION. THE TALEBAN
NOW CONTROL MORE THAN TWO-THIRDS OF AFGHANISTAN -- CONFINING THE
OPPOSITION TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SMALL CENTRAL AREA (BAMIYAN).
BUT THE ENDURING TRAIT OF THE CONFLICT IS ITS UNPREDICTABILITY.
THE AFGHANS ARE KNOWN FOR THEIR SHIFTING LOYALTIES AND
UNFORESEEABLE EVENTS ARE A REGULAR FEATURE OF THE AFGHAN SCENE.
AFGHANISTAN HAS SUFFERED ALMOST TWO DECADES OF WAR -- FROM THE
1979 SOVIET INVASION TO THE CIVIL CONFLICT THAT FOLLOWED THE
RUSSIAN PULLOUT. MORE THAN ONE-AND-A-HALF MILLION AFGHANS HAVE
DIED IN THE STRUGGLES. (SIGNED)
NEB / WD / WD
09-Aug-98 4:45 AM EDT (0845 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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