DATE=4/1/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-39444
TITLE=CAN SUDAN BREAK UP?
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRODUCTION: THE FIFTEEN-YEAR LONG WAR IN SUDAN HAS GROWN MORE
INTENSE AS REBEL FORCES IN THE SOUTH EMPLOY HEAVY WEAPONS AND
RUSSIAN MADE TANKS. THEY ALSO APPEAR MORE UNIFIED IN THEIR
STRUGGLE TO OVERTHROW THE ISLAMIC GOVERNMENT IN KHARTOUM. THE
UNITED STATES HAS CLEARLY THROWN ITS SUPPORT BEHIND THE REBELS
WHO ARE BATTLING A REGIME THE UNITED STATES ACCUSES OF HARBORING
TERRORISTS. VOA'S ED WARNER ASKED TWO ANALYSTS OF THE REGION WHAT
MAY LIE AHEAD.
TEXT: THE SUDANESE GOVERNMENT HAS LOST CONTROL OF ALL KEY TOWNS
IN THE SOUTH EXCEPT JUBA, WHICH IS NOW SURROUNDED BY REBEL
FORCES. WITH BETTER WEAPONS, GREATER UNITY AND EVEN A SMATTERING
OF DEMOCRACY, THE REBELS MAY BE MOVING CLOSER TO THEIR GOAL OF A
STRONG ROLE IN THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT OR AN INDEPENDENT STATE OF
THEIR OWN.
THEY ALSO NOW HAVE THE ASSISTANCE, TO A DEGREE, OF THE UNITED
STATES, WHICH HAS IMPOSED HARSH ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON SUDAN ON
THE GROUNDS IT CONTINUES TO OFFER SANCTUARY TO TERRORISTS, A
CHARGE THE GOVERNMENT IN KHARTOUM DENIES.
LAST DECEMBER, ON A TRIP TO NEIGHBORING UGANDA, U-S SECRETARY OF
STATE MADELEINE ALBRIGHT MET WITH SUDANESE REBEL LEADERS AND
BLAMED KHARTOUM FOR THE CONTINUING CONFLICT. THE UNITED STATES
HAS SUPPLIED ABOUT TWENTY MILLION DOLLARS IN MILITARY AID, THOUGH
NOT WEAPONRY, TO UGANDA, ERITREA AND ETHIOPIA. THESE NATIONS, IN
TURN, PROVIDE THE REBELS WITH ARMS.
KHARTOUM'S FORCES ARE CLEARLY WEAKENING, SAYS ROBERT COLLINS,
PROFESSOR OF HISTORY AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA IN SANTA
BARBARA. HE SAYS THEY ARE UNABLE TO LAUNCH AN OFFENSIVE, AND THE
APPROACHING RAINY SEASON MAKES OPERATIONS MORE DIFFICULT.
PROFESSOR COLLINS SEES LITTLE HOPE FOR THE STERN ISLAMIC RULERS
IN KHARTOUM:
// COLLINS ACT //
THEY WISH TO IMPOSE UPON THE DIVERSE PEOPLE OF THE SUDAN
- CONSISTING OF THREE HUNDRED DIFFFERENT TRIBES,
HUNDREDS OF DIFFERENT LANGUAGES, PEOPLE OF ALL KINDS OF
RELIGION, COLOR RACE, ETHNICITY - A MONOLITHIC PROGRAM,
WHICH IS FUNDAMENTALLY ARABIC AND ISLAM. THAT MEANS THAT
YOU ARE REDUCING TO SECOND CLASS CITIZENSHIP ABOUT
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY.
// END ACT //
BUT MAHER HATHOUT, SPOKESMAN FOR THE ISLAMIC CENTER OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, EXPECTS THE GOVERNMENT TO SURVIVE WHAT HE CALLS A
TERRITORIAL AND TRIBAL WAR. HE DENIES IT IS THE SIMPLE
MUSLIM-CHRISTIAN CONFLICT IT IS OFTEN THOUGHT TO BE.
THERE IS A GENUINE MUSLIM OPPOSITION IN THE NORTH, HE SAYS, THAT
SEEKS GREATER FREEDOM, BUT IT IS NOT REPRESENTED BY THE SOUTHERN
REBELS, WHO COMMIT THE SAME KIND OF ATROCITIES AS THE SUDANESE
GOVERNMENT.
MR. HATHOUT WISHES THE U-S GOVERNMENT WOULD CONSULT MUSLIM
OPINION IN AMERICA IN FORMING ITS POLICY TOWARD SUDAN, WHICH HE
NOTES HAS TAKEN SOME STEPS RECENTLY TO BE MORE INCLUSIVE.
HE THINKS IT IS A MISTAKE FOR THE UNITED STATES TO SIDE WITH THE
REBELS:
// HATHOUT ACT //
IT IS ANOTHER AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY BLUNDER BECAUSE IT
WILL CREATE MORE ANTI-AMERICAN SENTIMENT IN THE AREA. TO
SUPPORT THE REBELS IN THE SOUTH, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
DIVIDING SUDAN, THEY DEFINITELY WILL LOSE THE SENTIMENTS
OF A GOOD NUMBER OF AFRICAN NATIONS AND ALL THE ARAB
WORLD.
// END ACT //
MR. HATHOUT SAYS THE REGION FEARS THE INSTABILITY OF A
DISINTEGRATING SUDAN. EGYPT, IN PARTICULAR, MIGHT FIND ITS
CRUCIAL WATER SUPPLY FROM THE NILE ENDANGERED. NATIONS AS
DISPARATE AS CHINA AND SAUDI ARABIA HAVE INTERESTS IN A UNITED
SUDAN.
WHILE PROFESSOR COLLINS SAYS THE ONLY SOLUTION FOR SUDAN IS A
CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT, MR. HATHOUT ARGUES FOR A MORE NUANCED
RESPONSE TO A COMPLEX SITUATION. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/PLM
01-Apr-98 5:39 PM EST (2239 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
