[Senate Hearing 111-746]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office]
S. Hrg. 111-746
U.S. POLICY TOWARDS THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN
=======================================================================
HEARING
before the
COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES
UNITED STATES SENATE
ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS
SECOND SESSION
__________
APRIL 14, 2010
__________
Printed for the use of the Committee on Armed Services
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COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES
CARL LEVIN, Michigan, Chairman
ROBERT C. BYRD, West Virginia JOHN McCAIN, Arizona
JOSEPH I. LIEBERMAN, Connecticut JAMES M. INHOFE, Oklahoma
JACK REED, Rhode Island JEFF SESSIONS, Alabama
DANIEL K. AKAKA, Hawaii SAXBY CHAMBLISS, Georgia
BILL NELSON, Florida LINDSEY GRAHAM, South Carolina
E. BENJAMIN NELSON, Nebraska JOHN THUNE, South Dakota
EVAN BAYH, Indiana ROGER F. WICKER, Mississippi
JIM WEBB, Virginia GEORGE S. LeMIEUX, Florida
CLAIRE McCASKILL, Missouri SCOTT P. BROWN, Massachusetts
MARK UDALL, Colorado RICHARD BURR, North Carolina
KAY R. HAGAN, North Carolina DAVID VITTER, Louisiana
MARK BEGICH, Alaska SUSAN M. COLLINS, Maine
ROLAND W. BURRIS, Illinois
JEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico
EDWARD E. KAUFMAN, Delaware
Richard D. DeBobes, Staff Director
Joseph W. Bowab, Republican Staff Director
(ii)
C O N T E N T S
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CHRONOLOGICAL LIST OF WITNESSES
U.S. Policy Towards the Islamic Republic of Iran
april 14, 2010
Page
Flournoy, Hon. Michele A., Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. 6
Burns, Hon. William J., Under Secretary of State for Political
Affairs........................................................ 10
Cartwright, Gen. James E. USMC, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs
of Staff....................................................... 14
Burgess, LTG Ronald L., USA, Director of the Defense Intelligence
Agency......................................................... 15
(iii)
U.S. POLICY TOWARDS THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN
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WEDNESDAY, APRIL 14, 2010
U.S. Senate,
Committee on Armed Services,
Washington, DC.
The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:32 a.m. in
room SR-253, Russell Senate Office Building, Senator Carl Levin
(chairman) presiding.
Committee members present: Senators Levin, Lieberman, Reed,
Akaka, E. Benjamin Nelson, Udall, Hagan, Begich, Burris,
Kaufman, McCain, Chambliss, Thune, Wicker, LeMieux, Brown, and
Collins.
Committee staff members present: Richard D. DeBobes, staff
director; and Leah C. Brewer, nominations and hearings clerk.
Majority staff members present: Madelyn R. Creedon,
counsel; Jessica L. Kingston, research assistant; Michael J.
Kuiken, professional staff member; William G.P. Monahan,
counsel; and Russell L. Shaffer, counsel.
Minority staff members present: Joseph W. Bowab, Republican
staff director; Christian D. Brose, professional staff member;
and Daniel A. Lerner, professional staff member.
Staff assistants present: Paul J. Hubbard, Christine G.
Lang, and Breon N. Wells.
Committee members' assistants present: James Tuite,
assistant to Senator Byrd; Vance Serchuk, assistant to Senator
Lieberman; Carolyn Chuhta, assistant to Senator Reed; Nick
Ikeda, assistant to Senator Akaka; Greta Lundeberg, assistant
to Senator Bill Nelson; Ann Premer, assistant to Senator Ben
Nelson; Patrick Hayes, assistant to Senator Bayh; Gordon
Peterson, assistant to Senator Webb; Tressa Guenov, assistant
to Senator McCaskill; Jennifer Barrett, assistant to Senator
Udall; Lindsay Kavanaugh, assistant to Senator Begich;
Roosevelt Barfield, assistant to Senator Burris; Anthony
Lazarski, assistant to Senator Inhofe; Sandra Luff, assistant
to Senator Sessions; Clyde Taylor IV, assistant to Senator
Chambliss; Jason Van Beek, assistant to Senator Thune; Brian
Walsh, assistant to Senator LeMieux; Scott M. Clendaniel,
assistant to Senator Brown; Kevin Kane, assistant to Senator
Burr; and Ryan Kaldahl, assistant to Senator Collins.
OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR CARL LEVIN, CHAIRMAN
Chairman Levin. Good morning, everybody.
The committee today will hear testimony from Michele
Flournoy, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy; Bill Burns,
Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs; General James
Cartwright, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and
Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess, Director of the Defense
Intelligence Agency (DIA), on one of the most difficult and
important security challenges of our time, the Islamic Republic
of Iran. Instead of acting in a way to become a respected
member of the community of nations, Iran's leaders disregard
international norms, abuse the rights of their own people,
support terrorist groups, and threaten regional and global
stability. Iran's refusal to be open and transparent about its
nuclear program jeopardizes the security of its neighbors and
other countries in the Middle East.
There is a strong, bipartisan determination on this
committee and in this Congress to do all that we can to stop
Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. President Obama has
focused considerable effort towards that goal because in his
own words, the long-term consequences of a nuclear-armed Iran
are unacceptable, and he said that he doesn't, ``take any
options off the table with respect to Iran.'' I support the
view that, if Iran pursues a weapon, all options including
military options should be on the table. The possession of a
nuclear weapon by Iran would be a threat to the region and to
world security.
The administration has sought, through a variety of means,
to engage with the Government of Iran to make clear the
benefits available to them and its people if it complies with
international norms. It also makes clear the consequences if it
seeks nuclear weapons. Through five United Nations (U.N.)
Security Council resolutions and multiple U.S. laws and
executive orders, the United States has sought to work both
multilaterally and unilaterally to persuade Iran to abide by
its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
and its safeguards agreements with the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA).
We have sought and continue to seek the support of the
international community including Russia, China, and other
countries that regularly trade with Iran. Concerted,
coordinated international, diplomatic, and economic efforts
will hopefully make Iran understand in practical terms the
consequences of its actions. One of the issues that we will
discuss today is what additional diplomatic and economic
efforts could be effective in persuading Iran to forgo its
uranium enrichment program and meet all of its obligation to
the IAEA and the international community.
Iran's external activities in the region are also deeply
troubling. It continues to provide material support to violent
elements in both Iraq and Afghanistan that are responsible for
the loss of American servicemembers' lives and those of
countless Afghans and Iraqis. Iran also provides financial
assistance, munitions, and other support to the terrorist
organization Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas and other terrorist
extremist elements in Gaza.
While neglecting its international obligations and playing
a negative role in the region, Iran has also engaged in a
deeply troubling pattern of behavior targeting its own
citizens. In the wake of elections last June that were widely
considered fraudulent, Iranians by the hundreds of thousands
poured into the streets in nonviolent protest. The regime
responded with brutality.
Internal security forces and government-affiliated groups
set upon protesters with guns and clubs. There was widespread
abuse and torture of Iranians detained without legitimate
charges. Prominent voices for reform have been silenced, often
brutally.
Illegitimate show trials aimed at intimidation, not
justice, have resulted in harsh sentences including executions.
The regime has cracked down on freedom of expression and
interfered with the use of cellular, Internet, and other means
of communication to block the free flow of information. This
campaign of violence against its own people has further
solidified an international consensus that Iranian leaders must
not only fulfill their obligations to the global community but
also respect the human and civil rights of their citizens.
The committee will hear today from representatives of the
Department of Defense (DOD), the Department of State (DOS), and
the Intelligence Community (IC). There are several issues on
which the committee is eager to learn more:
An updated assessment on Iran's intentions and
capabilities regarding nuclear weapons;
The status of ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed
at securing tough, international sanctions against
Iran;
Iran's support to extremist elements in the
region;
Iran's campaign to stifle internal dissent and
the free flow of information; and
U.S. military contingency planning regarding
Iran.
A closed session will follow this morning's public hearing.
We thank the witnesses for their service and for the valuable
information that they're going to provide to the committee as
we consider these important issues. All of the witnesses'
statements that have been submitted will be included in the
record.
Senator McCain.
STATEMENT OF SENATOR JOHN McCAIN
Senator McCain. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I also thank our
distinguished witnesses for joining us here this morning and
for their many years of service to our country.
As the chairman has pointed out, and we all know, we meet
here today to discuss U.S. policy toward Iran, which at present
is focused foremost on the imperative of preventing that
government from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability. The
reasons for this are very clear. However, even as we focus on
Iran's nuclear ambitions, we must not lose sight of the Iranian
regime's broader pattern of threatening behavior.
This is a government that trains, equips, and funds
extremist groups that are violently subverting many of Iran's
neighbors. This is a government that is systematically
violating the human rights of Iran's people. This is a
government that is already working aggressively to overturn the
balance of power in the Middle East. These, among other
reasons, are precisely why Iran's rulers cannot be allowed to
obtain nuclear weapons.
The question we are here to answer is: how do we stop one
of the world's most dangerous regimes from acquiring the
world's most dangerous weapons? I never thought a policy of
engagement with Iran's rulers would succeed. But I understand
why the President pursued it.
Now after Iran's persistent intransigence, it is long past
the time to put teeth into our policy. The administration
declared last year that Iran would face consequences by
September 2009. Then, that deadline slipped to the end of the
year. Now it's April 2010. Iran still has not faced any
consequences for its actions. This delay has harmed U.S.
credibility.
Clearly, we and our partners will need to impose our own
sanctions on Iran, above and beyond what is ultimately
authorized by a new UN Security Council resolution. We should
start immediately with the sanctions legislation that is now
before Congress. The record of the past year is discouraging.
It's difficult to dispute that Iran is closer to possessing
a nuclear weapons capability today than it was a year ago. If
we remain on our current course, Iran will likely achieve a
nuclear weapons capability. In short, over the past year, the
balance of power in the Middle East has been shifting in favor
of our enemies. We see the latest evidence of that today in
reports that the Syrian government has transferred long-range
Scud missiles to Hezbollah. This is a dramatically dangerous
and destabilizing action.
Nevertheless, we already hear some assert that we can live
with a nuclear Iran. This idea rests on a host of assumptions
that are highly questionable.
To start, will the old rules of two-dimensional deterrence
apply to a volatile region with multiple nuclear powers and
possibly less rational actors?
How would Iran's possession of a nuclear weapons capability
embolden its support for violent groups currently engaged in
terrorism, assassination, and subversion in the Middle East?
Would the United States assume greater burdens of extended
deterrence to prevent a cascade of proliferation?
Could we assume these responsibilities as we further reduce
our nuclear arsenal?
Perhaps most importantly, would a U.S. policy of containing
or deterring a nuclear Iran really be credible if it is backed
by the same government that would be tolerating what it had
formally insisted was intolerable?
I hope our witnesses can help us to answer these critical
questions today.
Ultimately, we must remember one thing above all others.
The question of whether the Iranian regime becomes a nuclear
weapons power is less a question of capabilities than it is a
test of wills, both Iran's and certainly ours. Iran is
economically weak. It is militarily weak, as General Petraeus
has observed. Following last year's election, the Iranian
regime is more politically compromised than ever. Indeed, I
said at the time, I believe that when the young woman, Neda
Agha-Soltran, bled to death in the street last year, it was the
beginning of the end of the Iranian regime.
The United States, for all of our challenges, still enjoys
extraordinary power and influence in the Middle East with
strong and capable friends and allies. We have the capabilities
to prevent or delay Iran from getting these weapons if we
choose to. What actors in the region currently question is our
judgment and our resolve; whether the United States is more
determined to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons than the
Iranian regime is committed to acquiring these weapons.
We should have no illusions about the catastrophic
consequences of Iran developing a nuclear weapons capability.
It would threaten the reliable supply of energy on which
the global economy depends.
It would threaten the security of perhaps the very
existence of close allies.
It would deal a potentially fatal blow to the NPT regime
and the rules-based international order that the United States
and our allies have spent more than 60 years building.
Worst of all, it would destroy the credibility of U.S.
power, for it would show that our government could not achieve
a major, national security goal set forth by three
administrations of both parties.
After such a failure, it's hard to imagine that friends and
enemies alike would put much stock in America's pronouncements.
Make no mistake, if Iran achieves a nuclear weapons capability,
it will not be because we couldn't stop it, but because we
chose not to stop it. The stakes couldn't be higher. I look
forward to hearing and learning from our witnesses.
Chairman Levin. Thank you very much, Senator McCain.
Senator McCain. By the way, Mr. Chairman, I would ask to
put in the record the various statements from the
administration over the last year and a half or so that state
time is running out; the deadline is near. Press Secretary
Robert Gibbs stated on December 3: ``We're going to have
consequences if they don't turn around;'' December 20, 2009;
the list goes on and on of the threats that we have made
against the Iranians. So far there has been no action.
George Schultz, my favorite Secretary of State in all the
world, once said, as his Marine drill instructor told him,
``never point a gun at somebody unless you're ready to pull the
trigger.'' We keep pointing the gun. We haven't pulled a single
trigger yet. It's about time that we did.
Chairman Levin. Those will be made a part of the record.
[The information referred to follows:]
[GRAPHIC(S)] [NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]
Chairman Levin. Secretary Flournoy.
STATEMENT OF HON. MICHELE A. FLOURNOY, UNDER SECRETARY OF
DEFENSE FOR POLICY
Ms. Flournoy. Chairman Levin, Senator McCain, other
distinguished members of the committee, I appreciate the
opportunity to appear before you today to discuss our ongoing
efforts related to Iran. The Obama administration considers the
challenges posed by Iran to be one of our top national security
priorities. To address those challenges, we have developed a
strategy based on two central objectives.
First, we are working to prevent Iran from acquiring
nuclear weapons.
Second, we are countering Iran's destabilizing activities
and support for terrorism and extremists in the Middle East and
around the world.
The focus of my testimony here today is to lay out for you
the role of DOD in the strategy. The U.S. military is currently
in a supporting role, helping quietly to build the confidence
of our Middle Eastern partners by enhancing regional security
cooperation, while supporting our broader diplomatic strategy.
Our regional security cooperation efforts not only reassure
anxious states in the region, but also send a clear signal to
Iran that its pursuit of nuclear weapons will lead to its own
isolation and will ultimately make it less, not more, secure.
Iran's nuclear and missile programs represent a significant
threat to Israel. In the face of this threat, we continue our
effort to ensure Israel's qualitative military edge. We are
working closely with the Israelis to develop multi-layered
ballistic missile defenses.
For a number of years, we have worked with the countries of
the Arabian Peninsula as well as other partners in the region
to develop a common architecture that includes bilateral and
multilateral security initiatives. These include a regional
network of air and missile defenses, shared early warning
systems, counterterrorism and counterpiracy programs, programs
to build partner capacity, and efforts to harden and protect
our partners' critical infrastructure. In fact, we currently
have substantial missile defense assets in a number of Gulf
partner nations.
Our U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) maintains a robust
exercise schedule in the region and a sizable force presence
which reaffirms our commitment to our partners. We also
maintain a full schedule of bilateral and multilateral
engagements going up to the highest levels. In the last 2
months alone, Secretary Gates and Chairman Mullen have both
traveled to the region.
Strengthening the capacities of vulnerable states in the
region is vital. It's a vital avenue for countering
destabilizing Iranian activities. We believe we are seeing some
results.
In Iraq and Lebanon, for instance, our efforts to develop
the capacity of security forces and improve governance has
helped to weaken Iran's proxies. Iraqi security forces have
increased their capabilities and have showed continued
willingness to combat terrorist and militant organizations,
including Iranian backed groups. We also just witnessed a round
of successful national elections, despite Iranian attempts to
interfere in the process during the lead up to the vote.
Non-sectarian nationalist parties and coalitions won a
significant share of the votes, while the parties Iran most
preferred performed less well. Iraqis appear to have once again
rejected candidates whom they saw as too closely aligned with
Iran and its regional agenda as we also saw during the 2009
provincial elections. Overall, this suggests the growing sense
of Iraqi nationalist identity that's becoming a significant
counterweight to destabilizing Iranian interference.
In Lebanon, we are working with our partners to strengthen
national institutions and support efforts to extend government
authority throughout the country, including into the south.
Central to this work is the development of Lebanese armed
forces as a national non-sectarian force that can effectively
counter terrorism, secure Lebanon's borders, and implement all
Lebanon related U.N. Security Council resolutions. Effectively
implementing these resolutions requires ending Iranian support
for Hezbollah and undermining Hezbollah's terrorist goals and
militant presence in Southern Lebanon and beyond Lebanon's
borders. Neither of these is attainable without strong Lebanese
institutions, effective Lebanese armed forces, and a sovereign,
stable Lebanese state.
While we certainly have much further to go towards
achieving these twin goals of preventing Iranian acquisition of
nuclear weapons and countering Iran's destabilizing activities
in support for extremists, we believe that we are making
progress on both fronts. The administration's diplomatic
efforts have helped shore up the international consensus needed
to effectively place pressure on Iran.
Meanwhile, our efforts in DOD have helped to shore up the
ability of our regional partners to defend themselves and to
counter destabilizing activities from Iran. We have also
reassured our partners that the United States is fully
committed to their security. Your support on this committee for
these efforts has been critical over the past year. We look
forward to continuing to work with you as we move forward.
Thank you very much.
[The joint prepared statement of Ms. Flournoy and General
Cartwright follows:]
JOINT PREPARED STATEMENT BY HON. MICHELE A. FLOURNOY AND GEN. JAMES E.
CARTWRIGHT, USMC
Chairman Levin, Ranking Member McCain, and members of the
committee. We appreciate the opportunity to appear before you today to
discuss our ongoing efforts involving Iran.
The Obama administration considers the challenges posed by Iran to
be among the top national security priorities facing the United States.
To address this concern we have developed a strategy based on two
central objectives. First, we are working to prevent Iran from
acquiring nuclear weapons. Second, we are countering Iran's
destabilizing activities and support for extremists in the Middle East
and around the world.
For the past year, the primary thrust of the administration's
strategy has been focused on diplomacy and, specifically, the pursuit
of a dual-track strategy of engagement and pressure. Unfortunately,
despite the President's genuine and extensive efforts at engagement,
Iran has so far failed to respond constructively. However, this
approach has been successful in demonstrating to the international
community that it is Iran and not the United States that is standing in
the way of dialogue, and it has helped build greater international
consensus as we use the pressure track to try to bring Iran to the
negotiating table.
The focus of our testimony today is to lay out for you the part
that the Department of Defense plays in the administration's strategy
towards Iran. The Department's primary focus continues to be enhancing
regional security cooperation with our Middle Eastern partners. This
focus not only reassures anxious states in the region, but also sends a
clear signal to Iran that pursuit of nuclear weapons will lead to its
own isolation and in the end make it less--not more--secure.
DOD is also working actively to counter destabilizing Iranian
activities by strengthening the capacities of vulnerable states in the
region. In Iraq and Lebanon our efforts to develop the capacity of
security forces and improve governance have weakened Iran's proxies.
Meanwhile, we are working closely with the Iraqis on conducting
counterterrorism operations, sharing intelligence, and interdicting
arms shipments to counter Iran's influence in Iraq and throughout the
region.
Finally, through prudent military planning we continue to refine
options to protect U.S. and partner interests from Iranian aggression,
deter Iran's destabilizing behavior, and prepare for contingencies--all
while reducing the risk of miscalculation.
REASSURING OUR PARTNERS
In other words, for the present, the U.S. military is in a
supporting role, helping quietly to build confidence with regional
partners through normal military activity, while supporting the
diplomatic strategy. Iran's nuclear and missile programs represent a
significant threat to Israel. In the face of this threat, we continue
our efforts to ensure Israel's Qualitative Military Edge, and are
working closely with the Israelis to develop multi-layered ballistic
missile defenses.
In the wider region, the cornerstone of our approach is USCENTCOM's
Regional Security Architecture. For a number of years, we have worked
with the countries of the Arabian Peninsula, as well as other partners
in the region, to develop a common architecture that includes bilateral
and multilateral security initiatives such as a regional network of air
and ballistic missile defense systems, shared early warning, counter-
terrorism, counter-piracy, building partner capacity, and hardening and
protecting our partners' critical infrastructure. These efforts have
gained greater traction with the region's growing concerns about
Iranian activities. USCENTCOM also maintains a robust exercise schedule
in the region and a sizeable force posture and presence, which reaffirm
our commitment to our partners.
We also maintain a robust schedule of bilateral interactions beyond
the purely military sphere. Through the Gulf Security Dialogue, the
State Department and DOD in tandem are strengthening political-military
relationships in the region and focusing on regional perspectives and
common security interests while encouraging multilateral cooperation on
counter-terrorism, counter-proliferation, and the regional
reintegration of Iraq. We also conduct regular bilateral defense
engagements during which security challenges of common interest are
discussed and efforts to address these challenges are synchronized.
Moreover, senior leader engagements highlight the valued relationships
and common interests we share with partner nations. In the last 2
months alone, Secretary Gates, Chairman Mullen, and General Petraeus
have all traveled to the region.
Ultimately, all of these defense activities continue to support
U.S. diplomatic efforts by signaling to our partners the U.S.
Government commitment to the region's security.
COUNTERING IRANIAN DESTABILIZING ACTIVITIES
Beyond reassurance, we are also actively countering Iran's
destabilizing activities throughout the region. We just witnessed a
round of successful national elections in Iraq. Nationalist parties and
coalitions won a significant share of votes while parties Iran most
preferred performed less well. Early Iranian attempts to dictate the
quick formation of the new Iraqi Government were rejected and the Iraqi
public has made clear that they will not accept Iranian interference
into their internal affairs and candidates whom they see as too closely
aligned with Iran and its regional agenda. The growing capabilities of
the Iraqi security forces, as well as their continued willingness to
combat terrorist and militant organization, including groups backed by
Iran, is another sign that Iraqi nationalist identity is a significant
counter to destabilizing Iranian interference.
These elections are the latest in a series of strategic setbacks
that Iran has suffered in its efforts to establish dominance over the
Iraqi political system. Other successes include: the Iraqi-led ``Charge
of the Knights'' operation in 2008 that drove Iranian-backed militias
out of Basra; the U.S.-Iraq Security Agreement and Strategic Framework
Agreement in November 2008 that embody the shared U.S. and Iraqi
commitment to a long-term partnership between sovereign states; and the
January 2009 provincial elections in which parties that were seen as
too closely aligned with Iran suffered significant setbacks.
Going forward, we expect that Iran's ability to influence Iraqi
domestic affairs will be constrained by a combination of four trends:
enhancements in Iraq's security, governance, and economic capacities;
Iraqi nationalism; recognition among the leading Iraqi political forces
of the value of a strategic relationship with the United States; and
progress in reintegrating Iraq into the broader region.
In Lebanon, we are working with our partners to strengthen national
institutions and support efforts to extend government authority
throughout Lebanon. Central to this work is the bolstering of the
Lebanese Armed Forces as a national, non-sectarian force that can
effectively counter terrorism, secure Lebanon's border, and implement
all Lebanon-related United Nations Security Council Resolutions (1559,
1680, and 1701), and exert government control throughout Lebanon's
territory. Effectively implementing these resolutions requires ending
Iranian support for Hezbollah and undermining Hezbollah's terrorist
goals and militant presence in Southern Lebanon and beyond Lebanon's
borders. Neither of these is attainable without strong Lebanese
institutions, effective Lebanese armed forces, and a sovereign, stable
Lebanese state.
In Afghanistan, Tehran's influence and activities have not been as
obtrusive as in Iraq. Indeed, we and Iran share the stated goal of a
strong, stable, prosperous Afghanistan, but Iran's actions do not
necessarily match its rhetoric. Iran is playing a double game in
Afghanistan. It combines rhetorical and material support for the Afghan
Government with a continuing amount of material support to insurgents
that impedes U.S. and Allied efforts to stabilize the country. Iran's
historic, cultural, and economic ties with much of western Afghanistan,
its religious affinity with Afghanistan's minority groups, and its
extensive border result in Iran's having a critical stake in
Afghanistan's future. Tehran generally sees the Taliban as an enemy and
does not want to see them back in power, but nevertheless has provided
limited lethal assistance to the Taliban to hedge against increased
U.S./Western presence on its eastern border. As ISAF troop levels
increase, and as the Afghan Government expands its capacity, we will be
better positioned to protect against any substantial challenges from
Iran in Afghanistan in the near term. However, we recognize that, going
forward, Iran's interests will continue to play a significant role in
the regional balance that affects Afghanistan's stability.
PRUDENT PLANNING
It is the Department of Defense's responsibility to plan for all
contingencies and provide the President a wide range of military
options should they become necessary. As both the Secretary and the
Chairman have stated, military options are not preferable. This
adminstration is committed to a multifaceted diplomatic strategy to
resolve all our issues with Iran. But as the President has stated we do
not take any options off the table.
CONCLUSION
Iran is a serious threat to U.S. national security both because of
its nuclear program and its destabilizing activities across the Middle
East. The administration remains committed to a diplomatic strategy of
engagement and pressure. The Department of Defense is doing everything
it can to support this policy, by reassuring our partners in the
region, addressing Iranian destabilizing activities, and conducting
prudent planning.
Chairman Levin. Thank you very much, Secretary Flournoy.
Secretary Burns?
STATEMENT OF HON. WILLIAM J. BURNS, UNDER SECRETARY OF STATE
FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS
Ambassador Burns. Thank you very much, Chairman Levin,
Senator McCain, and distinguished members of the committee.
Thank you very much for inviting me to appear before you today.
Iran's defiance of its international obligations poses as
profound and complicated a challenge as any we face in the
world today. Iran's leadership continues to expand its nuclear
program. A nuclear-armed Iran would severely threaten the
security and stability of a part of the world crucial to our
interests and to the health of the global economy. It would
seriously undermine the credibility of the U.N. and other
international institutions and seriously undercut the nuclear
nonproliferation regime at precisely the moment we are seeking
to strengthen it.
These risks are only reinforced by the wider actions of the
Iranian leadership, particularly its longstanding support for
terrorist groups; its opposition to Middle East peace; its
repugnant rhetoric about Israel, the Holocaust, and so much
else; its brutal repression of its own citizens; and its
efforts to choke off the free flow of information, a universal
right of all Iranians.
Our policy aims to prevent Iran from developing nuclear
weapons and to counter its other destabilizing actions.
President Obama has also made clear, including in his Nowruz
message last month, that we will stand up for those rights that
should be universal to all human beings and stand with those
brave Iranians who seek only to express themselves freely and
peacefully. We have pursued that policy through a combination
of tough-minded diplomacy, including both engagement and
pressure, and active security cooperation with our partners in
the Gulf and elsewhere.
We have sought to sharpen the choices before the Iranian
leadership.
We have sought to demonstrate what's possible, if Iran
meets its international obligations and adheres to the same
responsibilities that apply to other nations.
We've sought to intensify the costs of continued defiance
and to show Iran that pursuit of a nuclear weapons program will
make it less secure, not more secure.
Last year, we embarked upon an unprecedented effort at
engagement with Iran. We did so without illusions about whom we
were dealing with; where the scope of our differences over the
past 30 years of engagement has been both a test of Iranian
intentions and an investment in our partnership with the
growing coalition of countries concerned about Iran's nuclear
ambitions.
We sought to create early opportunities for Iran to build
confidence in its intentions. In Geneva last October, we
supported, along with Russia and France, a creative proposal by
the IAEA to provide fuel for the production of medical isotopes
at the Tehran research reactor that could have produced an
opening for progress. Unfortunately, Iranian leaders spurned
that offer. What appeared to be a constructive beginning in
Geneva was ultimately repudiated by Tehran. Instead, Iran
pursued a clandestine enrichment facility near Qom; refused to
continue discussions with the U.N. Security Council Permanent
Five Members plus Germany (P5+1) about international concerns
over its nuclear program; provocatively expanded its enrichment
operations even further in violation of U.N. Security Council
resolutions; and drew new rebukes from the IAEA in the Director
General's most recent report.
Iran's reckless intransigence has left us no choice but to
employ a second tool of diplomacy, economic and political
pressure. As the President emphasized in Prague last week, we
must insist that Iran face consequences because it has
continually failed to meet its obligations. We cannot and we
will not tolerate actions that undermine the NPT, risk an arms
race in a vital region, and threaten the credibility of the
international community and our collective security.
Our efforts at engagement have made it much harder for Iran
to deflect attention from the core of the problem, which is its
nuclear ambitions and its unwillingness to meet its
international obligations. It has put us in a much stronger
position to mobilize effective international pressure. Already
we have seen evidence of mounting international concern.
We've seen increases in international cooperation to stop
arms shipments and financial transactions that aid terrorists,
threaten Israel, and destabilize the region. We saw last
November, for the first time in 4 years, the tough new IAEA
Board of Governors resolution sharply criticizing Iran. We saw
a strong U.N. General Assembly Iran Human Rights Measure in
December and a similarly strong European Council declaration
later that same month.
Now, we are moving urgently toward a new U.N. Security
Council Sanctions Resolution. Our purpose is to send a unified
message of international resolve with a range of concrete
measures that will affect Iran's strategic calculus. A year
ago, neither Russia nor China would engage in such an effort
and much of the rest of the international community was
drifting on the Iran issue.
Today, Russia, which was our partner in the Tehran Research
Reactor Proposal, is also our partner in pursuing a new
resolution. President Medvedev reaffirmed in Prague last week
his support for smart, targeted sanctions. President Obama had
a constructive discussion 2 days ago on the margins of the
Nuclear Security Summit with President Hu of China, and the
Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations has joined formal
negotiations of a new resolution in New York.
We continue to work closely with Britain, France, and
Germany, our other partners in the P5+1. We seek the strongest
possible resolution in the shortest possible time this spring.
We will seek to use this as a platform to expand upon the
existing sanctions regime. Equally evident to Iranians are the
informal expressions of international censure including the
voluntary departure of longstanding foreign investors and trade
partners and the increasing isolation of a country that had
only just begun to emerge from the self-imposed autarky of the
early post-revolutionary era.
Neither our formal penalties nor the increasing ostracism
Iran faces from the world will alter its agenda overnight. But,
we believe that the mounting weight of political and financial
pressures on its leadership will have an impact on Tehran.
Together, with an increasing number of international partners,
we are absolutely determined to ensure that Iran adheres to the
same responsibilities that apply to other nations. Too much is
at stake to accept anything less.
Thank you.
[The prepared statement of Ambassador Burns follows:]
Prepared Statement by Ambassador William J. Burns
Iran today presents a profound and complicated challenge. In
defiance of its international obligations, Iran's leadership continues
to expand and advance the most proliferation sensitive and provocative
elements of its nuclear program. A nuclear armed Iran would threaten
the security of our ally Israel, the Persian Gulf and the broader
Middle East, the credibility of international institutions such as the
United Nations, and the viability of the nuclear nonproliferation
regime. The grave risks at stake with Iran's nuclear program are only
amplified by its other deeply destabilizing policies and its treatment
of its people. Iran ranks perennially as the world's leading state
sponsor of terrorism, supporting Hizballah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic
Jihad, Iraqi militants, and the Taliban. As the international community
works to restart a meaningful dialogue between Israel and the
Palestinians, Iranian leaders foment hatred against Israel. At home,
the government's brutal crackdown on peaceful protestors who went to
the streets in the thousands to demand their universal rights has
outraged the world.
For all these reasons, Iran represents a paramount priority for
U.S. foreign policy. President Obama has been clear that Iran must not
develop nuclear weapons. He has sought to strengthen our diplomatic
options for dealing with the challenges posed by Iran, and offered
Tehran a pathway toward resolving the concerns of the international
community. From his earliest days in office, the President has made
clear that the United States is prepared to deal with the Islamic
Republic of Iran on the basis of mutual interest and mutual respect. As
part of this principled engagement, the United States has been a formal
party to the P5+1 talks with Iran since April 2009. We have recognized
Iran's right under the NPT to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. With
our partners in the international community, we have demonstrated our
willingness to negotiate a diplomatic resolution to the deep
differences between us. We embarked upon this effort to engage with the
Islamic Republic with no illusions about our prospective interlocutors
or the scope of our 30-year estrangement.
Together with our allies and international partners, we sought to
create opportunities for Iran to build confidence in its nuclear
intentions. These opportunities included the discussions last October
in Geneva of the IAEA proposal to provide fresh fuel for the Tehran
Research Reactor. We offered Iran a follow-on opportunity to meet with
the P5+1 to discuss these issues further. We also called on Iran to
grant the IAEA full and immediate access to its formerly undeclared
enrichment facility near the city of Qom. These were opportunities for
Iran to demonstrate its good faith and address the concerns of the
international community. But we cautioned Iran that engagement was not
sustainable without a constructive response demonstrating Iran's
serious willingness to address international concerns about its nuclear
program.
Unfortunately, Iranian leaders spurned serious negotiations, and
what appeared to be a constructive beginning in Geneva was ultimately
repudiated by Tehran. Instead, Iran revealed a clandestine enrichment
facility near Qom, provocatively continues its enrichment operations in
violation of UNSC resolutions, and refused to meet again with the P5+1
to discuss its nuclear program. Iran balked at the key elements of the
IAEA's TRR proposal. While Iran allowed IAEA inspections of the Qom
facility, it did not provide all the access the IAEA requested, nor
answers to the IAEA's questions concerning the nature of the facility
and Iran's intent in constructing it. Iran also failed to address
fundamental questions about evidence suggesting it had sought to
develop a nuclear warhead. These failures drew new rebukes from the
IAEA in the Director General's most recent report.
While our overtures did not generate sustained negotiations with
Iran, they have demonstrated our sincerity in seeking a peaceful
resolution. As a result of our patient pursuit of direct negotiations--
and the recalcitrance of Iran's response--we now see a broader
international consensus about the urgency of the Iranian threat and new
frustration among even some of Iran's friends and trade partners. This
newfound multilateral understanding strengthens our diplomatic hand as
we have intensified the second track of our dual-track diplomacy toward
Tehran--utilizing pressure to convince Tehran to change its course. As
the President said in Prague just last week, we must insist that Iran
face consequences because it has continually failed to meet its
obligations. We cannot, and will not, tolerate actions that undermine
the NPT, risk an arms race in a vital region, and threaten the
credibility of the international community and our collective security.
Already, the heightened concerns of the international community
have manifested themselves in a variety of ways. They have generated
increased cooperation on stopping arms shipments and financial
transactions that aid terrorists, threaten Israel, and destabilize the
region. This strengthened multilateral cooperation has also produced a
series of new formal measures, including the critical November 2009
IAEA Board of Governors resolution, the U.N. General Assembly Iran
Human Rights measure in December, and the European Council declaration
on Iran. In this regard, we are moving with a sense of urgency toward a
new U.N. Security Council Resolution. At the START signing ceremony
last week in Prague, Russian President Medvedev reaffirmed the need for
smart sanctions. Formal negotiations among the P5+1 on a new resolution
also began last week in New York. While the process of getting
consensus around a new UNSCR is always challenging, we are working
aggressively to adopt concrete measures that will serve as a platform
to strengthen and expand upon existing sanctions and target the power
centers most likely to have an impact on Iran's strategic calculus.
Concerns about Iran's destabilizing activities are not limited to
the P5+1 and our European partners. Many governments in the region have
legitimate fears about Iran's policies and the advancement of its
nuclear program. Iran's neighbors are working to counter and diminish
Iran's negative influence. These states support the responsible and
transparent development of civilian nuclear energy, but have publicly
declared their opposition to the pursuit of nuclear weapons and
emphasized their grave concerns about Iran's nuclear intentions. We
continue to work with these regional partners as they develop
mechanisms to better manage the political, diplomatic, and security
challenges Iran poses. In addition, we have launched intensive
diplomatic outreach efforts to other key states to discuss the need for
additional pressure to bring Iran back to the negotiating table.
Equally evident to Iranians are the informal expressions of
international censure, including the voluntary departure of
longstanding foreign investors and trade partners, and the growing
isolation of a country that had only just begun to emerge from the
self-imposed autarky of the early post-revolutionary era. Neither our
formal penalties nor the increasing ostracism Iran faces from the world
will alter its agenda overnight, but we believe that the mounting
weight of political and financial pressures on its leadership can
persuade Tehran to reassess its approach to the world.
Pressure cannot be an end in itself. The threat and implementation
of sanctions is intended to underscore to Iran's leaders the costs and
benefits of the alternatives before them. President Obama made clear in
his Nowruz message last month that we remain committed to meaningful
engagement. Together with our international partners, we acknowledge
Iran's right to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, but we must and we
will seek to ensure that Iran fulfills the same responsibilities that
apply to other nations and which it took upon itself freely. For this
reason, we will continue to press Iranian leaders to take concrete
steps to reassure the world that its nuclear program is intended for
peaceful purposes. Our resolve to uphold and strengthen the rules of
the international system reflects our core commitment to our own vital
security and to shaping a better future for the world, commitments that
are shared by our allies and partners.
Our interests with respect to Iran extend well beyond the nuclear
issue. As the President said last month in his Nowruz message, our
responsibility is, and will remain, to stand up for those rights that
are universal to all human beings. That includes the right to speak
freely, to assemble without fear, and the right to the equal
administration of justice. The Iranian Government's use of unwarranted
arrests, prolonged detentions, and violence against its citizens
represent outrageous violations of the most fundamental duties of
government. While this repression has quashed large-scale protests in
recent months, deep rifts remain evident between the government and
much of its citizenry, and among the power brokers who have long
supported the Islamic system. These cleavages wrought by the post-
election turmoil will continue to shape the political future of the
Islamic Republic in ways that we cannot fully anticipate, and the
United States will continue to speak out on behalf of those who are
seeking merely to exercise their universal rights.
The Iranian Government has also pursued a policy to limit its
citizens' access to information. In response, the United States
continues to make available tools that create the space--on the
Internet, in journalism, and in the arts--where free thought and
expression can flourish. As part of that effort, the U.S. Government is
pursuing ways to promote freedom of expression on the Internet and
through other connection technologies. We are working around the world
to help individuals silenced by oppressive governments, and have made
Internet freedom a priority at the United Nations as well, including it
as a component in the first resolution we introduced after returning to
the U.N. Human Rights Council.
In conclusion, let me note our deep and continuing concern for the
safety and well being of all American citizens currently detained or
missing in Iran. We urge the Iranian Government to promptly release
Shane Bauer, Sarah Shourd, and Josh Fattal, and all other unjustly
detained American citizens so that they may return to their families.
We also call upon Iran to use all of its facilities to determine the
whereabouts and ensure the safe return of Robert Levinson.
Chairman Levin. Thank you very much, Secretary Burns.
General Cartwright.
STATEMENT OF GEN. JAMES E. CARTWRIGHT, USMC, VICE CHAIRMAN OF
THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF
General Cartwright. Mr. Chairman, my concerns were included
in Secretary Flournoy's prepared and delivered comments. I will
await your questions.
Chairman Levin. Thank you so much, General.
General Burgess.
STATEMENT OF LTG RONALD L. BURGESS, USA, DIRECTOR OF THE
DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
General Burgess. Chairman Levin, Senator McCain, and other
members of the committee, thank you for this opportunity to
testify on Iranian military capabilities and intentions. I've
submitted my prepared statement for the record. I would like to
briefly summarize the main points.
The Iranian leadership has four strategic objectives: the
first is regime survival; the second is obtaining a pre-
eminent, regional role; Iran's third strategic objective is to
have a leading role in the Islamic world and beyond; and
finally, Iran seeks to become a regional economic, scientific,
and technological power house.
Iran seeks to achieve these objectives with an aggressive
strategy that counters western influence in the region. One
principle tool employed by Iran is the active sponsorship of
terrorist and paramilitary groups to serve as a strategic
deterrent and intimidate and pressure other nations. This
includes the delivery of lethal aid to select Iraqi Shia
militants in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
In contrast to Iran's aggressive foreign policy is its
conventional military posture, which is largely defensive. It
is intended to protect the regime from external and internal
threats. While DIA currently assesses that Iran is unlikely to
initiate a conflict intentionally or launch a preemptive
attack, it does have the capability to restrict access to the
Straits of Hormuz with its naval forces temporarily and
threaten U.S. forces in the region and our regional allies with
ballistic missiles.
Iran continues to invest heavily in advanced air defenses
and the potential acquisition of Russian SA-20 surface-to-air
missiles is a major part of that effort. Coastal defense cruise
missiles remain an important layer in Iran's strategy to defend
the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz. Iran's
unconventional military capabilities, which include
paramilitary forces trained to conduct asymmetric warfare,
would present a formidable force on Iranian territory. These
forces would include commando and Special Forces units, smaller
specially trained teams embedded within the conventional force
units and selected militia and law enforcement personnel.
With regard to weapons of mass destruction and ballistic
missile delivery systems, Iran is developing technological
capabilities applicable to nuclear weapons. Uranium enrichment
and heavy water nuclear water reactor activities continue in
violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. Iran has gone
to great lengths to protect its nuclear infrastructure by
locating facilities in buried, hardened facilities. It also
seeks to protect them by acquiring sophisticated air defense
systems.
Iran is continuing to develop ballistic missiles which
could be adapted to carry nuclear weapons. Iran claims to have
an extended range variant of the Shahab-3 missile and a 2,000-
kilometer medium range ballistic missile called the Ashura.
Beyond the steady growth in its missile and rocket inventories,
Iran has boosted the lethality and effectiveness of existing
systems by improving their accuracy and developing new
submunition payloads.
In closing, DIA concurs with General Petraeus' testimony
before this committee last month that the Iranian regime is the
primary state level threat to stability in the CENTCOM area of
responsibility. The potential threats posed by Iran and
evolving trends inside that nation remain a high priority for
DIA collectors, analysts, and counterintelligence
professionals. Thank you, sir.
[The prepared statement of General Burgess follows:]
Prepared Statement by LTG Ronald L. Burgess, Jr., USA
Good morning, Chairman Levin, Ranking Member McCain, and members of
the committee. Thank you for this opportunity to testify regarding
Iran's military posture, and for your continued support to the
dedicated men and women of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), many
of whom are forward-deployed directly supporting our military forces in
Afghanistan, Iraq, and around the world.
IRAN'S STRATEGY AND DOCTRINE
The strategic objectives of Iran's leadership are first and
foremost, regime survival; making Iran the preeminent regional power;
attaining a leading role in the Islamic world and on the international
stage; and turning Iran into an economic, scientific, and technological
powerhouse.
Iranian leadership pursues a security strategy intended to deter an
attack on its territory and increase its relative power in the region.
For years, it has promulgated its ``20-Million Man Army'' and
asymmetric warfare doctrine as deterrents to any would-be invader. Iran
has also extended its outreach and support to governments and groups
which oppose U.S. interests and threaten regional security. Diplomacy,
economic leverage, and active sponsorship of terrorist and paramilitary
groups are tools Iran uses to implement or further its aggressive
foreign policy. In particular, Iran uses terrorism to pressure or
intimidate other countries and more broadly to serve as a strategic
deterrent.
Iran's military strategy is designed to defend against external
threats, particularly from the United States and Israel. Its principles
of military strategy include deterrence, asymmetrical retaliation, and
attrition warfare. Iran can conduct limited offensive operations with
its strategic ballistic missile program and naval forces.
IRAN'S REGIONAL INFLUENCE
Iran's 20-year outlook plan from the year 2005 seeks to make Iran a
``top regional power''. Among other objectives, its current 5-year plan
seeks to expand bilateral, regional, and international relations,
strengthen Iran's ties with friendly states, and enhance its defense
and deterrent capabilities. Commensurate with that plan, Iran is
seeking to increase its stature by countering U.S. influence and
expanding ties with regional actors while advocating Islamic
solidarity. It also seeks to demonstrate to the world its
``resistance'' to the west. Iran is attempting to secure influence in
Iraq and Afghanistan while undermining U.S. efforts by furnishing
lethal aid to Iraqi Shia militants and Afghan insurgents. It also
provides weapons, training, and money to Lebanese Hizballah, its
strategic proxy and partner.
The Iranian regime uses the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds
Force (IRGC-QF) to clandestinely exert military, political, and
economic power to advance Iranian national interests abroad. The Quds
Force conducts activities globally, including gathering tactical
intelligence; conducting covert diplomacy; providing training, arms,
and financial support to surrogate groups and terrorist organizations;
and facilitating some of Iran's provision of humanitarian and economic
support to Islamic causes.
Iran also provides Lebanese Hizballah and Palestinian terrorist
groups--notably, HAMAS, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the Popular
Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC)--with
funding, weapons, and training to oppose Israel and disrupt prospects
for Arab-Israeli peace. The Quds Force is Iran's primary vehicle for
providing materiel and lethal support to Lebanese Hizballah, which Iran
views as an essential mechanism for advancing its regional policy
objectives.
Iran continues to drive a multi-pronged soft power strategy in
Iraq, including continued support to select Iraqi surrogate groups. The
Quds Force Ramazan Corps is responsible for carrying out Iran's policy
in Iraq. To more effectively execute regime policy, the Quds Force
posts officers in Iran's diplomatic missions throughout Iraq. Both
outgoing Iranian Ambassador to Iraq, Hassan Kazemi-Qomi, and incoming
Ambassador, Hassan Danafar, are Quds Force officers.
Iran also continues to provide money, weapons, and training to
select Iraqi Shia militants and terrorists despite pledges by senior
Iranian officials to cease such support. Iran offers strategic and
operational guidance to militias and terrorist groups to target U.S.
forces in Iraq. In addition to providing arms and support, the Quds
Force is responsible for training Iraqi insurgents in Iran, sometimes
using Lebanese Hizballah instructors. The Quds Force provides
insurgents with the training, tactics, and technology to conduct
kidnappings, small unit tactical operations, and employ sophisticated
improvised explosive devices (IEDs). In addition to weapons and
support, Iran continues training Iraqi Shia militants in the use of
IEDs, particularly deadly IEDs known as explosively formed penetrators
(EFPs), and the counter-measures designed to defeat these weapons.
Iran continues to influence events in Afghanistan through a multi-
faceted approach involving support for the Karzai government while
covertly supporting various insurgent and political opposition groups.
Tehran's support for the Government of Afghanistan is reflected in its
diplomatic presence and the numerous Iranian nongovernmental
organizations (NGOs) active in the country. Tehran has also pledged
over a billion dollars in aid, but has actually paid only small
fraction of that pledge. Iran has used the threat of repatriating the
large Afghan refugee population residing in Iran as a lever to
influence the Government of Afghanistan, especially during the harsh
winter months. Iranian officials met with President Karzai and his main
opponent Abdullah Abdullah throughout the presidential election
campaign, and worked hard to appear as the consensus maker during the
post election period. Tehran has also leveraged longstanding
relationships with numerous Afghan leaders including Gulbuddin
Hekmatyar and Ismail Khan, both of whom lived in Iran for a period of
time.
Arms caches uncovered in Afghanistan over the last 3 years
contained large amounts of Iranian manufactured weapons, including
107mm rockets, which we assess IRGC-QF delivered to Afghan militants.
Iran has been involved in Lebanon since the early days of the
Islamic Republic, seeking to expand ties with the large Shia
population. The IRGC played an instrumental role in the establishment
of Lebanese Hizballah and has continued to be vital to the development
of the organization.
IRAN'S MILITARY FORCES
According to the Constitution of the Islamic Republic, the Supreme
Leader is commander in chief of the armed forces, which consists of
three main components: the regular military (sometimes referred to as
the Artesh); the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or Pasdaran,
and the Law Enforcement Force (LEF). The regular military and IRGC come
under the control of the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics
(MODAFL). These forces are responsible for defending Iran's borders and
providing for internal security. The LEF is formally subordinate to the
Ministry of Interior, and plays a key role in internal security and
frontier security. Iran's defense spending as a share of GDP is
relatively low compared to the rest of the region.
The Islamic Republic of Iran Ground Force (IRIGF) comprises
armored, infantry, and commando divisions, as well as several
independent armor, infantry, airborne, and commando brigades, and
artillery groups. Additionally, the IRGC Ground Resistance Forces
(IRGCGRF) includes Provincial Corps, which generally include armor and
infantry brigades and artillery groups. Each brigade is allocated Basij
battalions which support brigade combat operations.
DIA assesses the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN) includes some
18,000 personnel. The IRIN is organized into four naval districts,
which likely include submarine, missile boat, patrol boat, and
auxiliary units; naval aviation units and naval riflemen and marine
commando units. An additional 20,000 personnel comprise the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN), which also includes missile,
torpedo, and small patrol boat units, several anti-ship coastal defense
missile batteries, and naval riflemen and commando units.
The Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) is estimated to
comprise 52,000 personnel, stationed at 10 fighter bases, 19 fighter/
fighter bomber and trainer squadrons, 1 reconnaissance squadron, and 10
transport/tanker squadrons. While the exact force structure is unclear,
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Air Force (IRGCAF) is estimated
to include 5,000 additional personnel and possess some capability to
support ground attack missions.
The IRIAF remains largely dependent on 1970's-era U.S. aircraft
like the F-4 Phantom II, the F-14A Tomcat, and the F-5E Tiger II. Its
most advanced fighter is the MiG-29 Fulcrum, and it has managed to keep
a substantial portion of its fleet of U.S.-supplied aircraft flying.
While Iran has not procured significant numbers of new aircraft in over
10 years, it has sought to meet some of its requirements by developing
an indigenous combat aircraft, most of which is derived from its U.S.-
built F-5A Freedom Fighters and F-5E Tiger IIs. One noteworthy project
is the twin-tailed Saeqeh (Thunderbolt), of which several examples have
apparently been built.
Iran's military exercises and literature make it clear its air
planners understand the value of airborne early warning and command,
control, communications, computers, and intelligence systems, airborne
intelligence, electronic warfare platforms, unmanned aerial vehicles
(UAVs) and airborne refueling. Iran has an active program and two
families of reconnaissance, target and lethal UAVs. However, the IRIAF
has been unable to progress in other areas. For example, the IRIAF's
lone airborne early warning and control system platform crashed in
September 2009, killing all seven people on board. Iran is also
building precision-guided munitions for the IRIAF, but recent large-
scale exercises showed fighters delivering conventional unguided
munitions.
The Air Defense Force includes a headquarters element and regional
air defense sectors. Iran has a small, but growing, number of surface-
air-missile (SAM) sites, and numerous anti-aircraft artillery (AAA)
sites.
In 2009 Iran established a separate air defense force under the
command of Brigadier General Ahmad Miqani, as a fourth force in the
Artesh. The new service consolidates equipment and personnel under a
single commander and has authority over both regular and IRGC air
defense units. Publicly, Iranian officials gave a number of reasons for
creating an air defense force, including the need to better defend its
nuclear sites, improve the maneuverability and capability of its air
defense forces, and consolidating information-gathering and air defense
forces in a single service. Iran is unlikely to seek to develop a fully
integrated nationwide air defense system. Instead, it seems to prefer a
point defense strategy, with its strongest defenses located around key
strategic centers.
Tehran continues to invest heavily in advanced air defenses, and
the potential acquisition of the Russian SA-20 SAM remains a major part
of its air defense modernization efforts. Iran's procurement of modern
SAMs with automated command, control, and communications systems will
be a significant upgrade to existing Iranian air defense capabilities
and improve its ability to protect senior leadership and key nuclear
and industrial facilities. Iran acquired modern SA-15 short-range
surface-to-air missiles in 2007 and has displayed newly acquired and
indigenously built radar systems at its Holy Defense Week parade.
Coastal defense cruise missiles (CDCMs) are an important layer in
Iran's defense of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. Iran can
attack targeted ships with anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) from its
own shores, islands, and oil platforms using relatively small mobile
launchers.
The C801/802 is Iran's primary CDCM, first imported from China in
1995. It is capable of engaging targets at a range of 6 nautical miles,
and has greater accuracy, a lower cruising altitude, and a faster set-
up time than the Seersucker missile Iran used during the Iran-Iraq War.
The C801/802 allows Iran to target any point within the Strait of
Hormuz and much of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Iran has
worked with China to develop shorter range missiles, including the
C701, for deployment in narrow geographic environments.
Iran can readily deploy its mobile CDCM launchers anywhere along
its coast. These systems have auto control and radar homing guidance
systems, and some can target using a remote air link. Iran's objective
is to overwhelm enemy air defenses with mobile CDCMs, combined with
multiple rocket launchers (MRLs), coastal artillery, and ballistic
missiles.
Iran has historically placed the majority of its conventional force
strength--to include armor, mechanized infantry, and infantry units--
close to its borders with Iraq and Turkey. This reflects its defensive
military doctrine, which is designed to slow an invasion and force a
diplomatic solution to hostilities. Iranian military training and
public statements echo this defensive doctrine. Iran continues to build
its capability to counter more advanced adversaries, including the
recent merger of the Basij Resistance Forces with IRGC ground forces.
Iran's unconventional forces, to include its paramilitary forces
trained according to its asymmetric warfare doctrine, would present a
formidable force on Iranian territory. These forces would include
commando and special forces units, smaller specially trained teams
embedded within the conventional force units, selected Basij forces,
and combat patrols of the Law Enforcement Forces. Numbers of personnel
could exceed 1 million.
THE IRGC-QUDS FORCE (IRGC-QF)
Iran established the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force
in 1990 as an elite unit within the IRGC. Although its operations
sometimes appear at odds with the public voice of the Iranian regime,
it is not a rogue element; it receives direction from the highest
levels of government, and its leaders report directly, albeit
informally, to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Quds Force employs
complementary diplomatic and paramilitary strategies.
The Quds Force stations operatives in foreign embassies, charities,
and religious/cultural institutions to foster relationships with
people, often building on existing socio-economic ties with the well
established Shia diaspora. At the same time, it engages in paramilitary
operations to support extremists and destabilize unfriendly regimes.
The IRGC and Quds Force are behind some of the deadliest terrorist
attacks of the past three decades, including the 1983 and 1984 bombings
of the U.S. Embassy and annex in Beirut, the 1983 bombing of the Marine
barracks in Beirut, the 1994 attack on the AMIA Jewish Community Center
in Buenos Aires, the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia, and
many of the insurgent attacks on coalition and Iraqi security forces in
Iraq since 2003. Generally, it directs and supports groups actually
executing the attacks, thereby maintaining plausible deniability within
the international community.
Support for these extremists takes the form of providing arms,
funding, and paramilitary training. In this, Quds Force is not
constrained by ideology; many of the groups it supports do not share,
and sometimes openly oppose, Iranian revolutionary principles, but Iran
supports them because of common interests or enemies.
The Quds Force maintains operational capabilities around the world.
It is well established in the Middle East and North Africa, and recent
years have witnessed an increased presence in Latin America,
particularly in Venezuela. As U.S. involvement in global conflicts
deepens, contact with the Quds Force, directly or through extremist
groups it supports, will be more frequent and consequential.
Each Provincial Corps in the Quds Force possesses a unit, called
Saberin, which has limited special operations capabilities. These units
rotate to northwest Iran to perform counter-insurgency operations
against the Kurdish Free Life Party (PJAK) and to the southeast against
Jundallah.
IRAN'S SUPPORT TO TERRORISM
Over the last 3 decades, Iran has methodically cultivated a network
of sponsored terrorist allies and surrogates capable of conducting
effective, plausibly deniable attacks against the United States and
Israel.
Through its longstanding relationship with Lebanese Hizballah, Iran
maintains a capability to strike Israel and threaten Israeli and U.S.
interests worldwide. With Iranian support, Lebanese Hizballah has
exceeded 2006 Lebanon conflict armament levels. On November 4, 2009,
Israel interdicted the merchant vessel FRANCOP, on which Iran was
attempting to smuggle weapons probably destined for Lebanese Hizballah
including large quantities of 122mm and 107mm surface-to-surface
rockets, 106mm antitank shells, mortar shells, hand grenades, and small
arms ammunition. The Quds Force operates training camps in Lebanon,
training LH and other fighters. Iran also provides hundreds of millions
of dollars per year in funding to support Lebanese Hizballah.
Iran provides Kata'ib Hizballah (KH)--an Iraqi Shia terrorist
group--and other Iraqi militant groups with weapons and training.
Inside Iran, the Quds Force or Lebanese Hizballah-led training
includes: small arms, reconnaissance, small unit tactics, and
communications. Selected individuals or groups receive more specialized
training in assassinations, kidnappings, or explosives. Iranian
materiel assistance and training increased the lethality of roadside
Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) and improvised rockets, enhancing
the capabilities of the supported groups in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the
Levant.
Iran's support to Palestinian groups--including HAMAS, the
Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of
Palestine-General Command--produced improvements in their capabilities
and increased the threat to Israeli and U.S. interests in the region.
Iranian training and material support assisted HAMAS in the development
of the Qassam rocket, extending its range to 40km. Iran also continues
to smuggle weapons, money, and weapons components into the Gaza Strip
through tunnels in the Philadelphi corridor.
The Quds Force has provided limited and measured lethal support to
select Afghan insurgent and terrorist groups since at least 2006.
Iranian supplied 107mm rockets, plastic explosives, and mortar rounds
have been recovered in Taliban-affiliated cache locations.
IRANIAN'S NUCLEAR AND BALLISTIC MISSILE WEAPONS CAPABILITIES
Iran is actively developing its nuclear program, including uranium
enrichment and heavy water nuclear reactor activities in direct
violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions. This
includes construction of the secret enrichment facility located on an
IRGC military base near Qom that was revealed in the fall 2009. Iran
also continues to develop ballistic missiles which could be adapted to
deliver nuclear weapons.
Tehran has refused to cooperate with the International Atomic
Energy Agency, particularly by refusing full access to facilities,
documents, and personnel as the IAEA investigates Iran's nuclear
program. Iran's nuclear activities and related lack of openness with
the international community raise serious questions about Iran's intent
and pose a significant threat to the peace and stability of the Middle
East.
Iran has gone to great lengths to protect its nuclear
infrastructure from physical destruction. It has placed an emphasis on
a number of factors to include locating facilities in buried sites,
establishing hardened facilities and attempting to acquire
sophisticated air defense systems.
Over the past two decades, Iran has placed a significant emphasis
on developing and fielding ballistic missiles. Iran began ballistic
missile acquisition and production programs in the 1980s during the
Iran-Iraq War to address its inability to counter Iraqi missile
attacks. Iran currently has the largest deployed ballistic missile
force in the Middle East. Since 2006, Iran has demonstrated its missile
capabilities in four highly-publicized exercises, nicknamed ``Noble
Prophet.''
Iran continues to develop ballistic missiles capable of targeting
Arab adversaries, Israel, and central Europe, including Iranian claims
of an extended-range variant of the Shahab-3 and a 2,000-km medium
range ballistic missile (MRBM), the Ashura. Beyond the steady growth in
its missile and rocket inventories, Iran has boosted the lethality and
effectiveness of existing systems with accuracy improvements and new
sub-munition payloads.
Short-range ballistic missiles provide Tehran with an effective
mobile capability to strike coalition forces in the region. Iran
continues to improve the survivability of these systems through
technological advances, such as solid-propellant and the use of anti-
missile defense tactics.
Iran has also developed medium-range ballistic missiles, and
continues to increase the range, lethality, and accuracy of these
systems. The Shahab 3, based on the North Korean No Dong, can reach all
of Israel. The Ashura or ``Sejil'' is an indigenous, two-stage missile
under development, which uses solid-propellant technology, reducing the
launch preparation and footprint.
DIA assesses that, with sufficient foreign assistance, Iran could
develop and test an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable
of reaching the United States. In late 2008 and early 2009, Iran
launched the Safir, a multi-stage space launch vehicle (SLV),
demonstrating progress in some technologies relevant to ICBMs. Iran
displayed its next-generation SLV, the Simorgh, in February 2010. The
Simorgh is much larger than the Safir and shows progress in booster
design that could be applicable to an ICBM design.
CONCLUSION
In summary, Iran seeks to increase its regional power by countering
Western influence, expanding ties with its neighbors, and seeking a
leadership role in the Islamic world. Diplomacy, economic leverage, and
active sponsorship of terrorist and paramilitary groups are the tools
Iran uses to drive its aggressive foreign policy. Nevertheless,
internal security remains the regime's primary focus. While it is
unlikely to initiate a conflict intentionally or launch a pre-emptive
attack, Iran uses its military forces to defend against both external
and internal threats. Iran does have the capability to restrict access
to the Strait of Hormuz with its navy temporarily and threaten U.S.
forces in the region and our regional allies with missiles. Iran
assesses the benefits gained from its use of terrorist surrogates
outweigh the costs. Tehran has gone to great lengths to protect its
nuclear infrastructure from physical destruction. Iran presents a wide
array of threats and challenges to the United States and its allies.
Let me conclude by saying the potential threats posed by and
evolving trends in Iran are among the highest priorities for the
Defense Intelligence Agency. As General Petraeus noted to this
committee last month, ``the Iranian regime is the primary state-level
threat to stability'' in the U.S. Central Command area of
responsibility. It is a core responsibility of the DIA to ensure our
Nation has the best available intelligence to protect deployed U.S.
personnel and their families, our allies, and partners from the threats
posed by Iran. DIA also retains a core responsibility to prevent
strategic surprise on a larger scale from any quarter, including Iran.
In my recent visits with DIA's military and civilian personnel deployed
to the Middle East, I remain impressed by--and thankful for--their
willingness to serve the Nation. On their behalf, I thank this
committee for your strong support and continuing confidence in the
Defense Intelligence Agency and its mission.
Chairman Levin. Thank you very much, General Burgess. We're
going to have a 7-minute first round.
Secretary Flournoy, the President said, ``I've been very
clear that I don't take any options off the table with respect
to Iran.'' Now, that means to me that military options remain
on the table, and my question is: does the President's
statement about options on the table include military options,
and in turn, do they include options of a maritime quarantine
or blockade of Iran's oil exports or import of refined
petroleum products?
Ms. Flournoy. Senator Levin, as the President said, all
options are on the table. We see it as DOD's responsibility to
plan for all contingencies and provide the President with a
wide range of military options, should they become necessary.
But, as both Secretary Gates and Chairman Mullen have stated,
military options are not preferable. We continue to believe
that the most effective approach at this point in time is a
combination of diplomacy and pressure in terms of how best to
change Iranian behavior.
The President has stated that no options are off the table.
In terms of specific options or contingencies, I prefer to
discuss those in a closed session.
Chairman Levin. Is it fair to say that the options that I
described are included in the all-options comment?
Ms. Flournoy. I would rather address that in a closed
session, sir.
Chairman Levin. Is your word all options? Is that your
statement?
Ms. Flournoy. Yes, all options are on the table.
Chairman Levin. That's fine, including military options?
Ms. Flournoy. Yes.
Chairman Levin. I just want to say that I think that it's
important that be the case. Secretary Flournoy, I support very
much what you said because I think it's critical that Iran
understand the seriousness of our purpose and the unity behind
a strong message to them.
General Cartwright, I was going to ask you about the
contingency plans being prepared. I assume your answer is the
same as Secretary Flournoy on that question?
General Cartwright. It is, sir.
Chairman Levin. Alright. I know that's not the preferable
option. It never is. But it also has to remain as an option.
Secretary Burns, can you tell us what additional specific
sanctions are we seeking at the U.N. that are not already in
U.N. Security Council resolutions?
Ambassador Burns. Senator Levin, as I said, I think we
built increasing momentum toward a strong U.N. Security Council
resolution. Intensive negotiations on the text of that
resolution have just begun. Russia and China are taking active
part in that effort.
We want to build on the existing sanctions by looking at
ways in which we can increase pressure, particularly with
regard to the financial sources that Iran draws upon to finance
its proliferation activities and its nuclear program. We want
to look at ways in which we can, in particular, target the
activities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC),
which has been eminently involved in the nuclear program. It
was an IRGC facility at which the Qom clandestine enrichment
facility has been constructed.
The IRGC has also expanded its economic role and controls a
number of companies in Iran, which also provide, I think, room
for us to explore in a new U.N. Security Council resolution.
It's going to be a difficult process in New York. It always is
in trying to work toward a tough U.N. Security Council
resolution.
But, we don't have a higher priority right now. We're going
to work to try to make those measures as strong as we possibly
can and to achieve them in as quick a time as we can.
Chairman Levin. We know that you're not able, in this
setting, to describe the exact status of those discussions and
negotiations. But, in general, let me ask you whether the
administration would support the Senate-passed legislation
known as the Dodd-Shelby Act, which would make sanctionable
efforts by foreign firms to supply refined gasoline to Iran or
supply equipment to Iran that could be used by Iran to expand
or to construct the oil refineries.
Ambassador Burns. Senator, I'd say a couple of things.
First, I think our efforts toward a new U.N. Security
Council sanctions resolution are one element in the strategy
which I described before. We think that a U.N. Security Council
resolution helps send a strong, unified message of
international resolve, which is important. We believe it will
contain some significant measures to increase economic
pressure.
We believe it can also provide a legal and political
platform off of which the United States, the European Union
(EU), and other countries can consider further measures
consistent with our own laws to amplify the impact of whatever
gets done in New York. We want to work with Congress with
regard to the legislation that you mentioned. We share the
sense of purpose, the goals, as well as the sense of urgency,
that we know all of you feel about this issue. Our interest is
in simply working with you to try to shape an approach which is
going to have maximum impact and be as effective as possible.
What that means, I think, is that we want to aim for an
approach which is going to encourage other governments and
foreign companies to cut their ties with Iran, and is going to
avoid penalizing countries and companies, which are actually
beginning to cooperate in that effort. We look forward to
working with you on that.
Chairman Levin. I hope you will be supportive of that bill
that we passed, including the specific provision that we think
is an important part of it and would add great pressure if
they're aware of the fact that that type of action is under
consideration.
General Burgess, let me ask you, my understanding is that
the U.N. is satisfied that the centrifuges at Natanz are being
used at the moment to produce low-enriched uranium (LEU), which
is enriched to 5 percent or less, and that these centrifuges
are not yet being used to produce highly-enriched uranium (HEU)
at a level needed for nuclear weapons, which is above 80
percent enrichment. Is that correct?
General Burgess. Sir, the open source reporting would
corroborate that, but any further discussion of that would be
better in closed session.
Chairman Levin. Alright. Now, if Iran decided to produce
HEU for nuclear weapons, which is above 80 percent enrichment,
with the installed centrifuges that they have, how long would
it take, approximately, to produce enough HEU for one nuclear
weapon?
General Burgess. Sir, the general consensus, not discussing
the exact number of centrifuges that we actually have
visibility into, is we're talking 1 year.
Chairman Levin. To produce that much HEU for one nuclear
weapon, should they begin to do that?
General Burgess. Yes, sir, for one nuclear weapon. You
characterized it correctly, Senator.
Chairman Levin. That's fine. Finally, has the IC determined
whether Iran has decided to produce HEU?
General Burgess. Sir, as we stated in the 2007 National
Intelligence Estimate (NIE), that still stands that we do not
have inside information that the regime has made the decision
to move in that direction.
Chairman Levin. Thank you.
Senator Collins, I guess you are next. The last shall be
first.
Senator Collins. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
General Burgess, let me follow up on the question that the
chairman just asked you. It's my understanding that there is a
new NIE that has been completed on the very question that has
just been raised, but not yet released. Is that accurate?
General Burgess. Ma'am, I think it is accurate to say that
there is an NIE currently underway. The decision on when it
will be released and when it will be finished has not been
determined yet.
Senator Collins. Do you expect that the findings in this
NIE will be the same as the findings of the 2008 or 2009
review? It blurs together; the NIE that you just referenced?
General Burgess. Ma'am, it would be better if we discussed
that in closed session.
Senator Collins. Ok.
Secretary Burns, 2 weeks ago, I met with the Director
General of the IAEA, Mr. Amano, and I was, first of all, very
impressed with the contrast in his reporting on Iran versus his
predecessor. He is much more willing to give an accurate,
straightforward assessment of Iranian capabilities. He
expressed frustration about the lack of compliance by Iran with
the transparency measures, known as the Additional Protocol,
that would allow for more intrusive inspections by the IAEA
inspectors. To date, the Iranians have completely ignored the
recommendations in the IAEA's February report.
We all know that the administration is working hard with
the U.N. Security Council to try to produce an effective
sanctions regime. Many of us, however, are concerned that the
sanctions that come out of the U.N. Security Council may well
be inadequate to accomplish the goal of increased transparency
and getting the Iranians to halt the work that they are doing.
What could be done by our country if the U.N. Security Council
does not follow through with tough and effective sanctions?
Ambassador Burns. Thank you very much, Senator.
What we've been doing is to try to use every lever that we
already have at our disposal to encourage foreign companies and
foreign entities to cut their ties with Iranian economy.
Already, I think, we've seen a considerable amount of movement
in that direction.
You've seen major energy companies like Total, ENI, and
Statoil, who have said they're not going to do any new
investment in Iran.
You've seen a number of companies stop gasoline sales to
Iran including Reliance, Glencore, IPG, and Lukoil, most
recently.
You've seen some major international banks--Deutsche Bank
and HSBC--pull out of business with Iran.
Just today, I saw a story in the press that Daimler, the
German carmaker, is pulling out of its business in Iran.
We're continuing to work very hard to use the existing
legislation and existing U.S. law to encourage companies to
move out of that kind of business. That is having an impact, I
think, on the Iranian economy and on its calculations. As I
said before, a U.N. Security Council resolution is one of a
number of elements in our strategy. It does provide a platform
for the EU and its members, as it has done in the past, to
consider other kinds of measures that it can take to implement
in a very tough way whatever it is that the U.N. Security
Council is able to agree to.
I think, to answer your question, is that we have a number
of other tools that we're using on which we can build.
Senator Collins. Madame Secretary, Secretary Gates on
Sunday raised a very serious verification question publicly
about the Iranian nuclear program. He said, ``If their policy
is to go to the threshold, but not assemble a nuclear weapon,
how do you tell that they have not assembled? It becomes a
serious verification question, and I don't actually know how
you would verify that.''
What assurances can you provide that we will know before it
is too late that Iranian's nuclear program has gone from
worrisome to the level that Vice President Biden has described
as unacceptable? In other words, if Iran has compiled all the
components for a nuclear weapon but stops short of actually
assembling them, how will we know when that point is reached?
What will be our response?
Ms. Flournoy. Senator Collins, I think that's actually,
maybe, a question that's better for my intelligence colleagues.
I think that what Secretary Gates was making clear is there are
many pieces to this puzzle. There are many different things
that go into a nuclear weapons capability. There are some that
we have a very good sense of and we have fairly high confidence
in.
But I think there's always a question of what you don't
know. I would say if we want to get into the particulars of
that, I would suggest we have that by bringing in our
intelligence colleagues in a closed session.
Senator Collins. Secretary Burns, let me return to the
issue of the U.N. Security Council resolution. How long will
our country wait for the U.N. Security Council to act before
moving onto other sanctions either unilaterally or with our
allies?
Ambassador Burns. Ma'am, as the President has made clear,
what we seek is the strongest possible sanctions resolution in
the shortest possible time this spring. We approach this with a
real sense of urgency. We are building momentum, most recently
with the decision by China to engage in a serious negotiation
in New York over the text and the content of a new resolution.
I think a new U.N. Security Council sanctions resolution is
an important element of our strategy for intensifying pressure.
We're going to do everything possible to try to achieve that
in, as the President has said, a matter of coming weeks, this
spring.
Senator Collins. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Chairman Levin. Thank you very much, Senator Collins.
Senator Lieberman.
Senator Lieberman. Thanks, Mr. Chairman. Thanks to you and
Senator McCain for convening this very important hearing.
Thanks for this distinguished panel of witnesses. What we're
dealing with here, today, is what I believe to be the most
significant security threat to our country in the world. It has
Armed Services Committee implications, obviously, and so, I
think it's very appropriate that we're holding this hearing.
There was an important exchange, I think, between you, Mr.
Chairman, and the witnesses about having all options on the
table. I was very interested in the press conference that
President Obama held yesterday at the conclusion of the Nuclear
Security Summit. He said, I presume in response to a question,
maybe not, in regard to sanctions, ``sanctions are not a magic
wand. What sanctions do accomplish is hopefully to change the
calculus of a country like Iran, so they see there are more
cost and fewer benefits to pursuing a nuclear weapons
program.''
Of course, I agree with that. It's why I think it's so
urgent that we go to the strongest possible sanctions. I also
agree with what the President said. It's, in a sense, a
different language than we've used, that sanctions are not a
magic wand. They're not a guarantee that we will achieve the
objective we want to achieve.
As the witnesses all know, a succession of American
administrations of both political parties have made clear over
and over again. I would daresay every Member of Congress of any
political party has made clear over and over again; it is
unacceptable to us in terms of our security and our values that
Iran obtain nuclear weapons. That, I assume, is why we continue
to say, Secretary Burns and Secretary Flournoy, that all
options, including the military, remain on the table. That is
to guarantee that the unacceptable, which is that Iran obtain
nuclear weapons, does not become reality. We have to keep all
options, including the military option, on the table.
Am I reading that correctly? Am I hearing it correctly,
Secretary Flournoy?
Secretary Flournoy. Yes, Senator. The President has said
both that a nuclear Iran is unacceptable and that all options
are on the table. We've also said that, at this moment in time,
we believe there are other options that need to be pursued in
their fullest. That's what we're doing with regard to both
engagement and pressure, sanctions as well as other measures.
Senator Lieberman. Of course, I agree with that. I have the
same sense of urgency that Secretary Burns referred to about
the sanctions, but I also feel that if the sanctions do not
work, then we have to be prepared to use military force to stop
the unacceptable from happening, which is that Iran become a
nuclear power.
I want to pursue a line of questioning here about why it's
so justified that the bipartisan consensus over a period of
time in our country has been that it is unacceptable for Iran
to have nuclear weapons. In that regard, I would really urge
everyone here, and everyone who can get their hands on it, to
read the prepared testimony of General Burgess for this hearing
today. It is very powerful.
General Burgess outlines the goals of the Iranian regime
and makes clear that the IRGC and the Quds force, and I quote
from his opening statement, ``are not a rogue element,''
referring to the Quds force. It receives direction from the
highest level of government. Its leaders report directly albeit
informally to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
General Burgess then goes on to describe a series of what
he calls ``deadly terrorist attacks'' over the last 3 decades
that the IRGC and Quds force have been involved in, going back
to the bombings at the U.S. Embassy and annex in Beirut and the
killing of over 240 marines in the bombing of the barracks in
Beirut in 1983, coming right forward to the support that the
Quds force and the IRGC have given to extremists and insurgents
in Iraq that have been responsible for the killing of hundreds
of Americans. It's very worrisome and compelling testimony.
General Burgess, is it fair to say, these are my words, but
I ask you that there already is a lot of American blood on
Iranian hands?
General Burgess. Sir, that would be a fair statement.
Senator Lieberman. So, when the Iranians, the leadership,
the fanatical leadership, chant death to America, it's actually
something they've already tragically made happen. It's
something that we have to take seriously.
General, the other statement that you made, which I find
very striking, and I quote here, ``DIA assesses that with
sufficient foreign assistance, Iran could develop and test an
intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching
the United States.'' Would you elaborate on that statement
that's in your prepared testimony?
General Burgess. Senator, what I would say in this setting,
and we can have further discussion in closed session, is that
the Iranians continue, as I said in my statement, to develop a
capability in their missile system. They are improving not only
their range, but their accuracy. They have certain
capabilities. If others decide to assist them, they can
leapfrog that technology as they have given indication of some
testing that is of concern to us.
Senator Lieberman. Ok. I appreciate that. In the closed
session, I want to take up with you what your particular
concerns are about the kinds of foreign assistance Iran might
receive to achieve the capability to launch a ICBM, presumably
at some point, carrying nuclear weapons against the United
States.
Secretary Burns, I think sometimes to appreciate the
urgency of the matter, it's important to look forward and ask
what the world would look like if Iran achieved nuclear
capacity. I want to ask you just to speak briefly for a few
moments. Is it fair to conclude that a nuclear Iran would
strengthen the hand of terrorist groups that are proxies for
Iran, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the extremists in Iraq, if
Iran had nuclear weapons?
Ambassador Burns. Yes, sir. That is fair to say. I think
the consequences of a nuclear-armed Iran truly would be
catastrophic. I think you could easily stimulate a regional
arms race which could have enormous dangers and carry enormous
risks for stability in a part of the world that matters greatly
to us and to some of our closest friends.
I think it would also do enormous damage, not only to the
credibility of the U.N. and international institutions, but to
the nuclear nonproliferation regime at exactly the moment as we
saw in the Nuclear Security Summit over the last couple of days
when we're working hard to try to strengthen that regime. I
don't think anyone should underestimate what's at stake.
Senator Lieberman. I appreciate your answer. I agree
totally on the last point that all the steps that are occurring
now, the New START, the nonproliferation to terrorists that was
a subject of the summit yesterday, all, in my opinion, will be
decimated if Iran goes nuclear.
My time is up. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Chairman Levin. Thank you, Senator Lieberman.
Senator McCain.
Senator McCain. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
General Cartwright, how long will it be until Iran could
have a nuclear weapon capability?
General Cartwright. To go into detail of capability, in
other words we talked earlier about a single weapon, just to
give an example in an open forum. We talked at 1 year the
potential to have a weapon capability.
Senator McCain. Just 1 year?
Secretary Burns, do you believe that Russia and China would
agree to sanctions that included the cutoff of refined
petroleum products into Iran?
Ambassador Burns. I think that's going to be very difficult
to achieve.
Senator McCain. Do you believe that China will agree to
sanctions at all through the U.N. Security Council?
Ambassador Burns. Yes, sir. I do.
Senator McCain. You do? You're on the record. You believe
that China will agree to sanctions through the U.N. Security
Council that would have meaningful affect?
Ambassador Burns. Yes, sir. I think that it's, as you asked
is that possible? I do believe that's possible, yes.
Senator McCain. Is it probable?
Ambassador Burns. We'll have to see, sir. We're just
beginning a serious negotiation in New York. As I mentioned
before, President Obama and President Hu had a constructive
conversation about this a couple of days ago.
I think we and the Chinese agree that we need to send a
strong message to Iran. So, yes, sir, I do think it's possible.
Senator McCain. Probable.
Ambassador Burns. Yes, sir, I think it is likely that we
would be able to produce a U.N. Security Council resolution.
Senator McCain. When do we envision this taking place?
Ambassador Burns. Sir?
Senator McCain. Six months?
Ambassador Burns. I hope very much in weeks. We're going to
work very, very hard to try to achieve a new sanctions
resolution that has meaning this spring in the shortest
possible time.
Senator McCain. Why doesn't the United States, with our
allies, who have agreed that they would act with us--I'm
talking about the French, British, and Germans--act
unilaterally, at least to put some sanctions that could have
some effect on the Iranian behavior rather than waiting for the
U.N. Security Council, which we have been waiting now for about
a year and a half, at least? Let me put it this way: the
sanctions so far that have been enacted by the U.N. Security
Council have been, in the view of most observers, ineffective.
Ambassador Burns. Sir, I'd just say two quick things.
First, our closest European allies expressed strong support
for trying to achieve a new U.N. Security Council resolution as
a part of our strategy.
Senator McCain. Haven't they also agreed to join with us in
imposing sanctions right away?
Ambassador Burns. Sir, their very strong preference, they
can speak for themselves on this, is to try to achieve a U.N.
Security Council resolution as a part of our strategy. As I
mentioned before that a resolution can serve as a legal and
political platform for the EU and some of our key European
partners to take other steps as they have in the past.
My second comment, sir, very quickly is that we're
continuing to work very hard to use existing legislation,
existing U.S. law, to discourage companies from doing business
with Iran. We've had some success in doing that. Major oil
companies like Statoil, like ENI, like Total, major banks,
insurance companies including Allianz from Germany, are pulling
out of business in Iran. A number of major companies, as I
mentioned before, have announced that they're not going to sell
gasoline to Iran anymore, Reliance, Vitol, and Lukoil most
recently from Russia.
We're going to continue to work that hard as well.
Senator McCain. But none of these actions have had any
perceptible affect on Iranian behavior.
Ambassador Burns. I think the Iranians do notice when these
things happen. I think they are concerned about it. I think one
way of judging that is the considerable effort that the
Iranians are putting into, right now, to discourage a new U.N.
Security Council resolution and to work hard with members of
the U.N. Security Council against that.
Senator McCain. I'll be very interested to see if your
prediction comes true; that meaningful sanctions will be agreed
to by the Russians and the Chinese. They've been playing rope-
a-dope with us for now over a year. I'll be very interested to
see if your optimism comes true. I see no justification for it.
Ms. Flournoy, I noticed with interest that you talked about
the importance of strengthening Lebanon and national security
implements, U.N. Security Council resolutions, assert
government control throughout Lebanon's territory. Have you
seen any progress there including implementing the U.N.
Security Council resolution that calls for the disarmament of
Hezbollah?
Ms. Flournoy. We have an extensive assistance program with
the Lebanese armed forces.
Senator McCain. I'm aware of the assistance program. I'm
asking if you have seen any progress in disarming Hezbollah.
Ms. Flournoy. I think we have seen an increase in their
political will to do this. We have not yet seen them accomplish
that goal. This is a work in progress, and it's going to take
some time.
Senator McCain. Is it of some concern to you the reports
are today that Syria has given Scud missiles to Hezbollah that
are now in place in Southern Lebanon?
Ms. Flournoy. We are very concerned about those.
Senator McCain. Is that a sign of progress?
Ms. Flournoy. Of course not, sir.
Senator McCain. Of course not. But, you would never know it
from the statement you made, saying that we're working with our
partners to strengthen national institutions.
There has been no progress in disarming Hezbollah. There
has been no progress in decreasing tensions there. As everybody
knows, the Scud missile now in Southern Lebanon change the
equation rather significantly if Hezbollah either decides to
attack or decides to respond to some Israeli action.
Ms. Flournoy. Sir, if I could.
Senator McCain. Yes.
Ms. Flournoy. We have seen the Lebanese armed forces exert
control in areas that were previously dominated by Hezbollah.
It is a work in progress.
Senator McCain. I would be very interested in seeing that.
Ms. Flournoy. Have we got there? No, we have not gotten to
where we want to go yet.
Senator McCain. I would be very interested in seeing those
areas of any significance that have been taken over by the
Lebanese military. Obviously, Hezbollah controls the areas of
Southern Lebanon that they want to. They now have veto power
over any action that the Lebanese government might take. Both
Prime Minister Hariri and Walid Jumblatt both said that they
had to go to Damascus, both individuals whose fathers had been
assassinated by Hafez al Assad.
So your rosy scenario is not corroborated by the facts on
the ground, which is an indication of our weakening position
throughout the region because of our failure to act.
I guess my time is expired.
Chairman Levin. Thank you, Senator McCain.
Senator Reed.
Senator Reed. Thank you very much.
General Cartwright, we will all acknowledge that a
sanctions approach is not a magic wand. Is a military approach
a magic wand?
General Cartwright. No, Senator, it's not. When you look at
the military side of the equation, we are working hard to
support things like sanctions and other diplomatic activities
in the region with the capabilities of strengthening the
region's military, strengthening nation states to be able to
defend themselves, and improving capabilities in the area. But,
military activity alone is not likely to be decisive either.
Senator Reed. Let's just take it a step further; if you
want to reserve comments at the closed session, that's fine.
The usual proposal for a military action is some type of
discreet strike to disrupt the nuclear facilities in Iran. I
presume that would not be 100 percent effective in terms of
knocking them out. It would probably delay them, but that if
they're persistent enough, they could at some point succeed.
Is that a fair judgment from your position?
General Cartwright. That's a fair judgment.
Senator Reed. So, the only absolutely dispositive way to
end any potential weapons program would be to physically occupy
their country and to disestablish their nuclear facilities. Is
that a fair, logical conclusion?
General Cartwright. Absent some other unknown calculus that
would go on, it's a fair conclusion.
Senator Reed. After 7 years in Iraq and more years in
Afghanistan, are military forces prepared to conduct such an
operation?
General Cartwright. I think our military forces with high
confidence could undertake such an operation. But, I think that
there would be consequences to our readiness and to the
challenges that we already face in this Nation economically to
pay for a war, et cetera.
Senator Reed. With consequences within Iraq and
Afghanistan?
General Cartwright. With consequences in Iraq and
Afghanistan.
Senator Reed. How many forces do you think it would be
necessary to conduct such an operation?
General Cartwright. I'd reserve that for a closed session,
sir.
Senator Reed. More than we have committed already into
Afghanistan and Iraq?
General Cartwright. I'd prefer to reserve that for closed
session.
Senator Reed. General Burgess, I think Senator Lieberman's
acknowledgement of your testimony is very accurate. It is very
sobering and very appropriate. But, I just want to continue on
the issue that the IRGC is not a rogue force.
Now, I'll ask a question which may be a very dumb question.
Is that good or bad? If there is a connection to a political
organization, does that limit their operations or does it in
any way constrain their operations or is it something that
empowers them more?
The other side of the equation would be, there are
countries where there are truly rogue forces that are
controlled by no one. I think of Pakistan, and entities which
are not controlled by the government; but controlled by
security agencies, like Lashkar-E-Tayyaba, who pose potentially
even more destabilizing roles. One of the real dangerous points
about the Mumbai attack was if the Pakistanis knew about it,
that's bad; if they didn't know, it's much worse.
So can you comment upon that?
General Burgess. Sir, I think what I would say in this
setting is that, as I laid out in the testimony, the Quds
force, the IRGC folks, that there is some control that is
directed from on high. How much and within what bounds that is
put on them is not something I'm prepared to go into detail on.
So, when we say they are not a rogue force, they are not truly,
totally independent operators. There is some cognizance on
high.
Senator Reed. Again, a question, I think, from your answer
is something that we will consider in closed session or with
more of a debate and a conclusion. Is political control an
opportunity that we might exploit in terms that the political
leadership constrains them or is that something that further
empowers them? I think we will need to defer the debate to
later.
General Burgess. Yes, sir.
Senator Reed. Secretary Flournoy, you mentioned that it was
a successful election in Iraq. The election was successful,
very much so. I just returned from there recently as so many of
my colleagues did.
The Iranians spent a lot of effort trying to consolidate
the Shia into a block that would effectively insist upon a
Shia-controlled government. The election was, in many respects,
a vindication of nationalism and secularism, which was a
significant, I think, achievement. Now, we're into the
formation of government.
I think the Iranians lost the election. They're trying to
win the formation. All the parties have gone to Tehran to talk
to the Iranian forces. Can you comment now about the process
going forward, in terms of the Iranian influence in the
formation of the Iraqi Government and the longer-term in Iraq?
Ms. Flournoy. The Iranians did seek to influence the
election, and they were not very successful. The parties they
backed most strongly did not do all that well. That was the
same result we saw in the provincial elections last year.
I think the Iraqi people are pretty clear that they don't
want a government that's made in Tehran. There were talks that
began in Tehran since then. The parties have also traveled to
Turkey, to Saudi Arabia, and to other neighbors in the region.
I think those who are most likely to be in a position to
actually form a government have asserted their commitment for
inclusion of all the blocks represented and so forth. I think
Iran has had a history now, over the past several years, of
overplaying its hand in Iraq. It tried to stop the Status of
Forces Agreement and the Strategic Framework Agreement, and it
didn't succeed. It was funding militants in Basra, yet a
successful offensive was conducted against them. They tried to
influence the last two elections, and their candidates and
parties have not done so well.
So, yes, they're trying to influence the process. Yes, we
have to watch their meddling very carefully. But, I don't think
they're going to be successful because I think, ultimately,
Iraqi nationalism will trump Iranian meddling.
Senator Reed. Thank you, my time is expired.
Chairman Levin. Thank you, Senator Reed.
Senator Thune.
Senator Thune. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thank you all for
being with us today and for your service to our country.
Secretary Flournoy and Secretary Burns, does it remain U.S.
policy to prevent Iran from achieving a nuclear weapons
capability?
Ms. Flournoy. Yes, sir.
Senator Thune. Would you say that, absent a credible
military threat, Iran is less likely to come to the negotiating
table and suspend its nuclear program?
Ms. Flournoy. I think the President has been very clear
that all options are on the table. Right now, we believe the
best combination is diplomatic engagement and pressure.
Senator Thune. I want to come back to the discussion you
were having with Senator McCain regarding U.N. Security Council
resolutions. I think the President has said that he's not
interested in waiting months for a new sanctions regime to be
in place. I'm interested in seeing that regime in place in
weeks.
With regard to the potential timing of that, I guess the
question I would have is, how long will the United States seek
a U.N. Security Council resolution on Iran before moving on to
other sanctions?
Ambassador Burns. Senator, the President has been very
clear that we want to achieve the strongest possible sanctions
resolution in the shortest possible time, this spring. We're
working very hard toward that end. Formal negotiations on the
new resolution have begun in New York now with the Russians and
Chinese participating.
I can't give you an exact date. All I can tell you, sir, is
we share the same sense of urgency about getting this done as
quickly as we can and sending the strongest possible message to
Iran.
Senator Thune. If that doesn't come into place in the near
future, is the United States willing to act with partners
outside the U.N. context to impose the type of crippling and
biting sanctions that you've been talking about for the past
year?
Ambassador Burns. Senator, I do believe it's possible to
achieve that result in New York. As I said, I think it's also
possible then to use that as a platform for taking some of the
other kinds of measures that the EU, for example, has taken in
the past. I think that's the most effective approach for us to
take right now.
Senator Thune. There was, Secretary Burns, a story in the
Sunday, March 7, New York Times that the Federal Government has
awarded billions of dollars in contracts to companies that are
doing business in Iran or were at the time of the contract.
According to the article, 49 companies that currently do
business with the United States are doing business in Iran and
show no signs of ceasing that activity. Many of these companies
are subsidiaries of major U.S. corporations.
If the United States is to have any credibility as we seek
international sanctions on Iran, shouldn't we start by barring
subsidiaries of U.S. corporations from doing business with
Iran?
Ambassador Burns. Sir, we take very seriously the concerns
that were raised in that article. I think it's worth noting
that half of the companies that were mentioned in that New York
Times article have already pulled out of business in Iran.
With regard to the question of subsidiaries, sir, American
companies are already prohibited from doing business with Iran.
If American companies seek to create subsidiaries simply for
the purpose of evading U.S. law, the Treasury Department has
legal basis to go after them, and does it. With regard to
foreign subsidiaries of U.S. companies, we've already seen in
recent weeks some movement in the right direction; both
Halliburton and Caterpillar's foreign subsidiaries have pulled
out of their business connections in Iran.
We took the basis for the article very seriously. We're
continuing to push hard.
Senator Thune. Are we doing enough to target the banks that
are doing business in Iran or that are sanctioning companies
that are doing business with the IRGC? It just seems like you
continually hear these stories and those reports. We talk about
targeting their dependence upon imported gasoline and cutting
off financing through the banks that are supporting it.
I'm hard pressed to see where we're taking the steps that
are necessary and effective, if we're serious about putting the
pressure that you talk about on that regime.
Ambassador Burns. Senator, a number of companies, foreign
companies, and banks, if faced with the choice between doing
business with the United States and doing business with Iran
are making, what from our point of view, the right choice. The
tally sheet, as you look at, has a number of major banks. I
mentioned Deutsche Bank and HSBC. The number of companies that
have ceased gasoline sales to Iran, including Reliance, Vitol,
and Lukoil, the Russian company most recently, is increasing.
I think our efforts are having an impact and we continue to
work very hard at that.
Senator Thune. The clock is ticking.
Ms. Flournoy and General Cartwright, I wanted to get your
views on another subject. That's the ongoing development of the
air/sea battle concept that is being proposed and specifically
how it's going to affect our military strategy toward Iran. The
Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) directs the Navy and the Air
Force to develop this new joint air/sea battle concept for
defeating adversaries with sophisticated anti-access and area
denial capabilities.
Could you provide your views on the development of this new
air/sea battle concept, and how does this concept fit into our
overall strategy with regard to dealing with Iran?
General Cartwright. The concept, as it's articulated in the
QDR, is to look at anti-access capabilities, particularly in
those nations that are bordered by oceans, seas, et cetera.
What kind of capabilities in the 21st century we do believe DOD
will need in order to penetrate those types of sophisticated
counters? As we look at Iran, probably the areas of greatest
relevance, and I'll defer also to Ms. Flournoy, are those
things that are associated with the straits and narrows. Areas
that are difficult are defined by being more easily defended
with shorter-range capabilities and less sophisticated
capabilities because of the lack of strategic depth and our
ability to either prevail directly in the face of those threats
or to work around them. A lot of what we're trying to
understand is how do you find the synergies between those
things that come from the sea and those things that are
inherently long-range or otherwise tactical air.
How do you find the synergy to work against those types of
threats, detect them, and then find a kill chain that would
allow you to penetrate the area?
Senator Thune. Can I just ask you to follow up? In your
view, how will long range strike capability fit into that, this
new air/sea battle concept?
General Cartwright. One of the key issues of long-range
strike or the attributes of long-range strike is that it can
close generally with a target much quicker than a surface
force. So, from the standpoint of wearing down the offenses or
eliminating them before you actually have to close with them,
it gives you that opportunity.
Senator Thune. Anything to add, Ms. Flournoy? Ok. My time
is up. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Chairman Levin. Thank you very much, Senator Thune.
Senator Hagan.
Senator Hagan. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I, too, want to
thank the witnesses for coming and giving us your testimony
today. I think it's important having DOS and DOD here
discussing this issue.
We know that Iran's nuclear weapons program, along with its
military assistance to groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the
insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan, serves as a threat to our
national security interest. The nature of this challenge
requires a whole-of-government approach that employs all
aspects of national power. Has the administration formulated
plans that integrate the diplomatic, informational, military,
and economic instruments of national power into a comprehensive
strategy that addresses the threat that Iran presents?
Secretary Flournoy and Secretary Burns, if you all can comment
on that?
Ambassador Burns. Yes, ma'am. I think the short answer is
yes. We've described, I think, a number of the elements of that
comprehensive strategy. It's an enormously difficult challenge.
But, I can't think of a higher priority for the United States
than addressing that challenge energetically and forcefully.
Those elements include what we're trying to do
diplomatically, both the effort at engagement, but also
economic and political pressure because they complement one
another. They're both parts of diplomacy. Also, the efforts
that Under Secretary Flournoy has already described are
continuing quietly to strengthen our security cooperation with
our partners in the region, particularly in the Gulf. There are
a range of other efforts that we make with partners around the
world on this issue.
Ms. Flournoy. I would say that complementing our efforts
for diplomatic engagement and economic pressure is changing
attitudes. What we see in the region is actually a number of
countries who share a great concern and anxiety about Iran's
behavior and their capabilities development. They are actually
starting to cooperate much more closely with us and with each
other. We see this in terms of the essence of our defense
cooperation, in terms of ballistic missile defense cooperation,
in terms of the bilateral and multilateral conversations,
information sharing, and plans coordination that's going on.
I would contest the idea that the balance of power is
shifting to our enemies. We actually see Iran's behavior
driving a lot of our friends closer to us and closer to each
other in the Gulf region.
Senator Hagan. Thank you. During the 2006 Lebanon war
between Hezbollah and Israel, as well as during the 2007-2008
Gaza conflicts between Hamas and Israel, both Hamas and
Hezbollah demonstrated weapons arsenals that were larger than
many other small nations. Many of the weapons and munitions
employed by Hamas and Hezbollah can be directly linked to
supplies provided by Iran.
Secretary Flournoy and General Cartwright, what steps, if
any, is DOD taking to disrupt the proliferation of Iranian
weapons and weapons technology to non-state actors throughout
the region?
Ms. Flournoy. We have increased our intelligence focus on
this. We've increased our intelligence sharing with others in
the region. We have been bolstering their anti-smuggling
capabilities in a number of partner states, so they can be more
effective interdicting and stopping some of these flows. We're
also applying substantial pressure to those states that are
facilitating this movement of goods.
I don't know if you want to add anything?
General Cartwright. I think all of those things are true.
This is still a difficult problem. I wouldn't want to lead you
to believe that we've effectively cut the stream off.
We are working very hard with every capability that we
have, in addition to trying to improve the capabilities,
particularly of the nations that have these borders that are
somewhat porous. But, this is a difficult problem.
Senator Hagan. Secretary Flournoy, when you mentioned our
intelligence focus, and you're sharing smuggling information
with the other nations, are they actually doing something and
taking active steps with the intelligence?
Ms. Flournoy. We see a mixed record. We could go into the
details in closed session. Some countries are and some are not
doing everything we would hope.
Senator Hagan. Thank you. Despite the fact that many
Iranian reformists are now in prison, and there are many that
believe that the Green challenge of the most recent election
has significantly narrowed the base of the regime to hard-line
purists that are backed by revolutionary security forces. I was
wondering, Secretary Burns, do you believe that the Green
challenge has weakened Ahmadinejad's regime, and how serious
would you consider the unrest within Iran to be?
Ambassador Burns. I think that the concerns you saw
manifested on the streets of Tehran and other Iranian cities
are very real. I don't think they've gone away. I think they
reflect a deep discontent. I think we've seen fissures not only
between the regime and much of the population, but also within
the leadership itself.
It's very difficult to predict, but I think they're very
real issues.
Senator Hagan. Thank you. We've been talking a lot about
the sanctions. To my knowledge, no firms have been sanctioned
under the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA) since its enactment in 1996.
The ISA was then expanded during the 110th Congress and
additional provisions have been passed by the House and Senate
that, I think, are currently in conference.
Secretary Burns, what has the administration determined
during its investigation into investments of Iran for
violations of ISA, and what steps does the administration plan
to take to ensure that the penalties are imposed for violations
of this act?
Ambassador Burns. First, ma'am, as I mentioned before, we
have tried to make very active use of ISA and of existing U.S.
law to discourage firms from doing business with Iran. There
have been some specific instances of that actually occurring.
At the same time, we go through scores of reports of new
business deals, particularly in the energy sector, being done
with Iranians. We have a number that have been highlighted by
Members of Congress and are primarily within this
administration; our preliminary review of that shows that a
number of those cases raised by Members of Congress are in
fact, problematic.
We're trying to make sure that we get this right because it
means sifting through a lot of different information, some of
which turns out to be unfounded, but some of it real. We look
forward to staying in very close touch with Congress as we work
through the results of that effort. We'd also be glad to
provide a briefing in closed session about some of the results
of the efforts so far.
Senator Hagan. Ok. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Chairman Levin. Thank you very much, Senator Hagan.
Senator Brown.
Senator Brown. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thank you all for
coming and participating. Mr. Chairman, thank you for your
leadership.
I know I'm new here, but one of the things that's always
concerned me long before I got here was the fact that I don't
believe that Iran takes us seriously when it comes to demanding
full disclosure with regard to their nuclear capabilities.
Iranian unemployment is high. Their cash reserves are
dwindling, if not depleted. Their citizens are anxious for
change.
We had, I felt, an opportunity to help them at some point
in recent memory to effectuate change. It's always been my
feeling that the answer is not in the U.N., but it's in the EU,
and us really implementing draconian sanctions to effectuate
change. It really comes down to the money; without money and
without the refining products that they need to survive,
they're not going to do anything. They're going to continue to
string us and the world communities along and continue to
develop their nuclear program. It doesn't take a brain surgeon
to figure it out.
I'm concerned that every day that we delay is another day
that they have to get closer to the capability to export
terrorism around the region and the world.
Once again, I'm new here. I don't want to be disrespectful.
But, what is the administration's plan when it comes to either
exerting pressure or trying to work with France, Russia, and
the other countries that have substantial financial assets in
this region? Without their assistance, quite frankly, and
without pulling the plug on the finances, I don't think we're
going to be getting anywhere.
I'd like either Secretary to respond to that.
Ambassador Burns. Yes, sir. First we share, absolutely,
your sense of urgency. You're absolutely right about the
consequences of a nuclear-armed Iran.
What we're seeking to do is mobilize the strongest and
widest possible international pressure. A U.N. Security Council
resolution is an important part of that because for many of our
European allies, in particular, that provides an extremely
valuable platform for them to consider further measures that
the EU can take. We're going to push as hard as we can, as I've
said before, to achieve that range of measures as quickly as we
can, not only in the U.N. Security Council, but also in terms
of what we can do with others.
Senator Brown. I just got back from Afghanistan and
Pakistan, and I obviously heard of the influence of Iran,
obviously in Afghanistan. As I'm aware, and as you're aware,
there are two economic sanctions bills, one in the Senate, one
in the House. I may be missing something, but I know health
care is important to the administration. I know that now we're
talking about financial regulation reform, and we may be doing
immigration reform. We're not focusing on jobs, number one,
though every other country that I just visited, Afghanistan and
Pakistan, is.
I would think that these two bills that are in conference
committee would be one of the top priorities of the
administration. I'd like to know what influence or what
activity the administration is putting on something that I
think is a vital national security, not only to us, but to the
rest of the world. I don't know; maybe I'm not privy to the
information, but what's being done trying to get these bills
passed, so we can get some real teeth and stop fooling around
with Iran?
Ambassador Burns. Senator, we want to continue to work with
Congress to try to shape that legislation, so it's going to
have the most effective impact. What I mean by that, sir, is to
use whatever measures that the United States takes in a way
that's going to encourage more countries and more companies to
move out of business with Iran and that's not going to penalize
those countries that are actually with us and moving in the
right direction. That's why we want to work with you and your
colleagues very much to try to achieve.
Senator Brown. One final question, Mr. Chairman. I recently
got back from Afghanistan, and one of the major concerns of not
only the Karzai government, but of our leaders there is the
influence that Iran is having there. What are some of the
lessons that you learned in Iraq in curtailing Iranian
influence that we can use in Afghanistan?
This is probably best for Secretary Flournoy, I would
believe.
Ms. Flournoy. Again, I think that Iran, when its efforts to
influence have become widely known by the populations it's
seeking to influence, such as in places like Iraq or
Afghanistan, those efforts have tended to be rejected. Again in
Iraq, the reaction has been fairly consistent and strong. I
think in Afghanistan, they are playing a double game where they
are providing some support to try to influence the government
while they're also trying to support and influence elements in
the insurgency there.
I think that the more that meddling is exposed, the more it
is rejected by the population they're trying to win over. I
think that is a common lesson that will apply in both places.
Senator Brown. In conclusion, Mr. Chairman, and through the
people here speaking in front of us, I would just encourage
more action. Like I said, I hate to keep saying I'm new here,
but the people in my State, the people in this Country, and the
people who are directly affected by what's happening in Iran
are very, very concerned about what's happening there and the
delay, the delay, the delay, the talking, and the delay.
At some point, I'm hopeful that the administration will
make this one of its top priorities and start focusing on the
security of that region because a nuclear Iran and its ability
to export terrorism throughout that region and the world should
make people very, very concerned. I would ask you to pass that
message to the President, as I plan to do. Thank you.
Chairman Levin. Thank you, Senator Brown.
Senator Wicker.
Senator Wicker. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. There has been a
general agreement with the statement of Secretary Gates that
Iran will not have the capacity to build a nuclear weapon for
at least another year. General Cartwright, I'll begin with you
and then perhaps General Burgess might also participate in this
line of questioning.
I think that the testimony today has been that a year from
now, it is possible that Iran might have attained the capacity
to build a nuclear weapon. Is that correct, General Cartwright?
General Cartwright. I think there are several caveats that
are associated with that. When we discussed it earlier, it was
in the context of the ability to produce sufficient fissile
material for a weapon. It didn't include the assembly, the
testing, and all the things that go into a weapon. We could get
into that more in the closed sessions.
Senator Wicker. Let me try a little more in a public forum.
Is there anything you can tell us about their ability actually
to assemble and actually have in their possession a nuclear
weapon, to be able to deliver that nuclear weapon, or would a
test be necessary for them to have any confidence level that
they actually had something there?
I think the ultimate question on the minds of not only our
constituents, but of people around the world, is when, based on
what the Secretary has said publicly, might they have the
capacity to harm another people?
General Burgess. Sir, I think, as we said in the earlier
discussion, they have enough LEU now that, if they further
process and enrich that that in a year, if they continue to
take that, they would have enough material for one weapon. I
think anything further than that in this forum would be too
much.
Senator Wicker. Alright. We'll just wait for the closed
session on that.
Secretary Burns, you mentioned this scenario in an answer
to Senator Lieberman's question of actually a nuclear-armed
Iran and the things we would have to worry about in that
regard. You mentioned a nuclear arms race, the harm done to the
credibility of the U.N., and the devastating effect it would
have on our efforts to prevent terrorist groups. Did I miss
your saying that there would be the actual possibility of the
weapon being detonated and actually harming someone in the
neighborhood? Is there a reason why you did not mention that?
Ambassador Burns. No, sir. There are many dangers connected
with a nuclear armed Iran. Obviously, one of those dangers is
actually the use of a weapon, which would have catastrophic
consequences.
Senator Wicker. Are you able in an unclassified setting,
such as this, to say when you think that ultimate act might
occur? When might Iran be capable of taking that ultimate act?
Ambassador Burns. No, sir. I think that's probably better
left to a closed session.
Senator Wicker. Ok. Let me ask you then we have had
optimistic testimony today about a meaningful sanctions
resolution this spring. It is now April 14. I'm told that Iran
is not on the U.N. Security Council agenda for April. Is that
correct? Do we take anything from that, or is it a matter of
simply changing the agenda on a moment's notice?
Ambassador Burns. No, sir. What has started in New York is
a very intensive negotiation amongst the five Permanent Members
as well as Germany, the so called P5+1, about a new resolution.
That's very much on the agenda of all of those members right
now.
We're going to work as hard and as fast as we can.
Senator Wicker. Would it mean anything if the matter were
placed on the official agenda of the U.N.? Would it bring any
pressure to bear?
Ambassador Burns. Sir, I leave the tactics to my colleagues
at our mission in New York. It's a complicated challenge, and
it's been very difficult in the past because we're talking
about, of course, not only the 5 Permanent Members, but also
the 10 elected members.
We have a great deal of work to do, and I don't want to
underestimate the challenge. All I can tell you is we have no
higher priority right now than trying to achieve that.
Senator Wicker. When we're talking about spring, Mr.
Chairman, we're talking about April or May. This is a very
optimistic scenario that you've painted.
I noticed today in the Los Angeles Times, China insisted on
Tuesday that it has not shifted its approach on Iran's nuclear
programs, despite White House claims on Monday that Beijing had
become more open to sanctions on Tehran. A spokeswoman for the
Chinese Foreign Ministry, Jiang Yu, told reporters in Beijing
that, ``China has always believed that sanctions and pressure
cannot fundamentally resolve the issue.''
Would you care, Mr. Secretary, to respond to that? Is this
something different from what you and administration officials
heard in person from Chinese leaders during the meeting in
Washington?
Ambassador Burns. Sir, what I would say is first, the
Chinese also made clear in that same statement their strong
support for the dual-track approach, which is not only about
engagement, but also about pressure.
Second, they have agreed, after months and months of
resistance, to engage directly in the negotiation of the text
of the new resolution.
Third, I do believe that China is increasingly aware of
many of the risks that you mentioned before to the stability in
a part of the world that matters greatly to China and to its
own economic hopes and hopes for economic growth. China also
has a stake in the credibility and integrity of the U.N. and
the nonproliferation regime.
Senator Wicker. Do you feel that China has, in fact,
shifted its approach as a result of the last 2 days?
Ambassador Burns. I do. Simply because up until a few days
ago, the Chinese were not prepared to engage directly in
negotiations over a new resolution; now they're participating
actively in that process.
Senator Wicker. Lastly, if I might, Mr. Chairman. I see
there's no one waiting behind me, and there may be follow up
questions.
Chairman Levin. There are, but I think Senator Chambliss
may wish to speak shortly.
Senator Wicker. If I could ask one question about taking
things off the table because the chairman began with this. Does
this, Secretary Flournoy, Nuclear Posture Review take anything
off the table with regard to our subject matter today?
Ms. Flournoy. No, it does not, sir.
Senator Wicker. So, the language on page viii about
strengthening the longstanding negative security assurance and
when and where we would use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear
weapon states that are part of the NPT, do those pertain to any
country in this region that we're discussing today?
Ms. Flournoy. The negative security assurance is for a
pledge that we will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons
against a given country and applies to countries who are non-
nuclear, signatories to the NPT, and are in full compliance
with their NPT obligations. Those are the criteria. In this
case, Iran does not fit those criteria at this point.
Senator Wicker. Thank you, sir.
Chairman Levin. Thank you, Senator Wicker.
Senator Chambliss.
Senator Chambliss. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Secretary Flournoy, gentlemen, I think it's pretty obvious
that there's frustration with respect to this issue. That
frustration didn't just start with this administration. This
issue has been ongoing for some time.
I certainly share the thoughts that Senator McCain
expressed and Senator Brown obviously expressed also about the
fact that, in the eyes of the American people, we seem to be
treading water on this issue while Iran is just sitting back
and doing their thing and, frankly, almost sticking their
finger in our eye. It really is, as Senator McCain said in so
many words, time to quit ratcheting up the rhetoric and start
ratcheting up the activity.
If we don't, we're going to look back and all of a sudden
they're going to have a weapon. I'm not certain with all that
I've learned over the years that we can do anything to stop
that now. But, I appreciate what you said, Secretary Burns,
about the opportunity that may be there.
Several of us just got back from Vienna and meeting with
Director General Amano and other folks at the IAEA. Frankly,
the previous leadership at the IAEA, in my opinion, was no
leadership at all. It was extremely weak under ElBaradei.
Director General Amano is really taking this issue on head
first. It has seemed like he has accomplished more in a few
weeks than ElBaradei accomplished in several years. I'm hopeful
that with his help that your optimism may bear fruit.
Let me direct this to Secretary Flournoy, General
Cartwright, and General Burgess. How concerned are you that
Iran has now told us that they are enriching uranium to 20
percent?
Ms. Flournoy. I think any steps that Iran takes to go down
the enrichment path are worrisome. We are concerned about that.
Even though that is not a weapons grade level, we don't want to
see them making progress.
The fact is, they have also been having some technical
problems with their program, as well.
Senator Chambliss. Do you think they have the capacity to
turn that uranium into fuel?
Ms. Flournoy. Into fuel for power reactors or for weapons
usable fuel?
Senator Chambliss. Into weapons.
Ms. Flournoy. I think that is certainly their aspiration. I
think if they went down that path we would, at this point in
time, know about it.
Senator Chambliss. The IAEA expressed concern to our group
about military work and design. Certainly that may be somewhat
explained by work on conventional weapons. But, when you look
at the combination of this added enrichment, plus their obvious
work on weapon systems, it seems so.
General Burgess, maybe I'll direct this to you. Is there
anything you can tell us about what may be going on with the
combination of those two factors now in public?
General Burgess. Sir, that would be better in a closed
hearing.
Senator Chambliss. Ok. General Cartwright, could you
comment on the capabilities of IRGC naval forces, particularly
as it relates to their ability to deny us access to the Strait
of Hormuz in-between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman?
Several CENTCOM commanders have, in the past, discussed Iran's
military hardware acquisitions, and the development tactics
seem to indicate that they might be posturing themselves in a
manner that would allow them to deny us access to that area.
General Cartwright. Senator, I think in general terms, they
are fortifying their capabilities to either reduce or deny
access or constrict it. The difficulty here is one of tactics
and objectives. If they close the straits off, they're closing
off their only supply lines also. This would be a pretty
significant activity in their calculus. But, to have the
physical capacity to attempt to do that, they are moving in
that direction.
We believe that we would be able to maintain the straits.
But, it would be a question of time, impact, and the
implications from a global standpoint on the flow of energy, et
cetera, would have ramifications probably beyond the military
actions that would go on.
Senator Chambliss. General Burgess, when General Petraeus
was before the committee about 3 or 4 weeks ago, we discussed
the, at least public, dwindling of influence by the Iranians in
Iraq. With the election dispute ongoing between Prime Minister
Malaki and former Prime Minister Allawi, have you determined
that there may, again, be increased Iranian influence being
undertaken with respect to the dispute that seems to be ongoing
internally?
General Burgess. Sir, we've seen no discernable change in
the actions. The Iranian folks are still trying to play on the
ground with the current situation. But, it's the stuff that
they're doing day to day.
It would be unfair for me to characterize recent activity
as if we've seen a change with this latest election piece going
on.
Senator Chambliss. How about from a weapon standpoint?
General Burgess. Sir, there have been no discernable change
from what we have seen in the past.
Senator Chambliss. Any change in weapons going into
Afghanistan that you've noticed out of Iran?
General Burgess. No, sir. I would say what we have seen in
the past has been the current tempo. Most recently, we found a
cache there around Herat, that was found in 2009, with some
movement of some stuff in Iranian C-4 explosives and some other
items. I think the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs has talked
about that up here before.
Of course, what is unknown is when did it go into the
country of Afghanistan? We don't know.
Senator Chambliss. Ok. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Chairman Levin. Thank you very much, Senator Chambliss.
We're going to move to executive session, but I want to clarify
something before we do that. This has to do with the testimony
you've given us; should Iran make a decision to do so, it could
produce enough HEU in a year for one weapon. You indicated that
response to my question and other questions.
U.S. intelligence agencies, according to Reuters yesterday,
believe that Iran won't be capable of producing nuclear weapons
for at least a year. But, it would probably be technically able
to do so, if it chooses, within 3 to 5 years. Now folks, we
have to clarify this issue before we leave here today, if we
can, in public.
In terms of the HEU, your answer is clear. It would take
about a year should they decide to do that. To move to 80
percent or more enrichment, it would take a year or more, about
a year, to produce enough for one weapon. Okay, we're there
with the new fuel for a weapon.
Now, you indicated in terms of putting together a weapon,
that assembling a weapon is a different issue. We need an open
session to learn something about that, since intelligence
officials apparently are indicating that's something more than
a year now. I know a number of us tried to get this, but help
us out. Otherwise, your headline tomorrow is Iran can get a
weapon in a year. That's going to be what's reported, unless
you clarify that the uranium part of a weapon could be highly
enriched in a year for one weapon.
Take the other pieces; tell us what you can, General
Cartwright, in terms of number one, capability. I'm not sure
how that's different from what they have now, which is
capability. But, tell us what you can, should they make a
decision today to put together a weapon.
We know the uranium piece of it. Tell us about the weapon
development piece or what you can, in open session.
General Cartwright. I think the way I would approach that,
Senator, is to say there are assumptions we made and talked
about with the enriched material and getting us out to a year.
When we look at other examples of development, there is a trend
that would say that it would take, already having the uranium,
another 2 to 3, potentially out to 5 years, to move from the
idea of having the material to a deliverable weapon that is
usable.
Chairman Levin. No, I didn't say deliverable. I said put a
weapon together.
General Cartwright. Then let's say usable tactically.
Something that can actually create a detonation, an explosion
that would be considered a nuclear weapon.
Chairman Levin. Now, what if this happened simultaneously?
What if the enrichment to 80 percent or more started tomorrow
and the decision to assemble a weapon happened tomorrow? Give
us, then, your estimate of how long it would be before they
would have a weapon.
General Cartwright. Again, I can't put that on a particular
country. In other words, I can't put that on Iran. What I can
tell you is that experience says that it's going to take you 3
to 5 years.
Chairman Levin. Ok.
Senator McCain. Mr. Chairman, I'd like to pursue that if I
could. You're saying to this committee that before the Iranians
would have a deliverable nuclear weapon, it could be as long as
5 years?
General Cartwright. Senator, I can't tell you what problems
they will encounter. I am telling you that, historically, going
from having sufficient fissile material to a weapon takes that
time.
Senator McCain. We're asking for your assessment as to when
they will have a nuclear weapon that is deliverable because
that is obviously a very critical point in this entire
situation. If it's 2, to 3, to 5 years, then that's one thing;
if it's 1 year, then that's another.
Also, we seem to uncover from time to time additional
facilities that the Iranians either have or are constructing. I
guess that contributes to this dramatic difference between 1
year and 2, to 3, to 5 years. Every report I've seen is a year
to 18 months. That's why I'm somewhat astonished to hear you
say it could be 2, to 3, to 5 years.
Now, I'm not sure. This doesn't clarify it to me.
Chairman Levin. We're going to stay here until we get a
clear answer on this. We have to. Yesterday the headline,
Reuters, read ``U.S. officials see Iran nuclear bomb probable
in 3 to 5 years.''
We're going to go through it again. Leave the deliverable
part off. That assumes a missile, I think.
General Cartwright. Right.
Chairman Levin. Leave that off. If the decision were made
today, by Iran, to put together a nuclear weapon, we understand
that it would take 1 year on the HEU. Again, we got it.
Now, that doesn't put together. That's not the whole
weapon. They have to put the weapon together, right?
Should they decide today to do that simultaneously, in
parallel, to work on the HEU as they work on the assembly, tell
us what you can from the IC's assessment about how long would
it take for them to assemble a weapon based on everything you
know about?
General Cartwright. Senator, again, you're asking me to
know things I can't know, but 3 to 5 years is what I would tell
you.
Chairman Levin. That is your best assessment?
General Cartwright. Yes, sir.
Chairman Levin. Ok. Now in terms of the missile, that's a
totally separate issue. That's the deliverable part.
I assume when you say deliverable, is that a different
factor because they would have to marry a weapon to a missile?
They'd have to have a missile, and then it depends long-range,
medium-range, and short-range capability.
Tell us what you can about the deliverable part, assuming
that there's a missile involved. Now, they can deliver a weapon
without a missile tactically, right? You can detonate a weapon
without a missile. So the 3 to 5 years is the weapon piece.
Now, adding on the missile piece, what can you tell us
about that?
General Cartwright. Again, I would probably tell you, not
knowing exactly where they are in their capability, that it
would still take them another 3 years. That does not
necessarily mean it would be sequential.
Chairman Levin. Ok. That could be done in parallel,
theoretically, too. Is that correct?
General Cartwright. Yes, sir.
Senator McCain. Ok. Could I just ask again?
Chairman Levin. Sure.
Senator McCain. They could develop a nuclear weapon, and
it's going to be 3 years or longer.
General Cartwright. A nuclear weapon for a country,
historically, takes 3 to 5 years.
Senator McCain. I'm not asking about a country
historically. I'm asking about Iran.
General Cartwright. Again, I'd rather take that particular
question, to get to the exact assumptions, into a closed
session, Senator. I can tell you that, normally such that that
is, that with the HEU, you're still dealing in 3 to 5 years to
create a weapon.
Chairman Levin. Is that sequential or could that be done
together?
General Cartwright. It could be done in parallel.
Chairman Levin. Which means the 3 to 5 could include the 1
year for the HEU?
General Cartwright. Potentially.
Chairman Levin. Ok. Senator Lieberman?
Senator Lieberman. Thanks, Mr. Chairman. The obvious point
to me, as I hear you, is the best we can ask you to do is make
predictions based on history. Obviously, no one knows or can
say the future with any certainty.
But, I just want to come back to something Senator Reed
referred to, which was my reference quoting President Obama
yesterday about sanctions not being a magic wand. Senator Reed
went on to say that military action isn't a magic wand and
raised the prospect and took you down a road, a hypothetical,
of the only way we can be certain that we could stop Iran from
having a nuclear weapon is if we occupied Iran.
I want to say first, from my point of view, that all
options are on the table. That's not anything I've heard anyone
really, seriously talk about. I think what anyone is talking
about is, if it becomes necessary to use military force to stop
the unacceptable, which is an Iranian nuclear program, either
covert action on the ground and/or limited strikes from the
air, so that whatever might be necessary.
I just don't want to leave the impression because then
Senator Reed asked you about what effect the ground invasion of
Iran or occupation of Iran would have on our activities in Iraq
and Afghanistan. I don't think anybody is thinking of that. I
certainly am not.
I wanted to say one final word about General Burgess'
prepared testimony. One of the things he also does here is to
lay out, in very powerful form, how weak the conventional
military of Iran is. That's very important for us to
acknowledge.
General Cartwright, going back to what I just said, do you
agree that the United States enjoys an overwhelming advantage
of conventional warfare against Iran including particularly
with regard to air and naval capability?
General Cartwright. I do.
Senator Lieberman. In the event it is needed, and I'm not
saying anybody is planning to do so, is it within the military
power of the United States to establish air and naval dominance
over Iran?
General Cartwright. It is.
Senator Lieberman. In the event that we chose to do so, is
it within the military power of the United States to strike the
Iranian nuclear program in a way that would seriously disrupt
and delay it?
General Cartwright. I'd like to take that to closed
session.
Senator Lieberman. Ok, because that's what we're talking
about here. In the end, the one sure way for Iran to not go
nuclear is for its people and government to decide not to go
nuclear. That's where I come back to what President Obama said
yesterday about sanctions. That's the whole aim of sanctions. I
quote again, ``what they're aimed at accomplishing is changing
the calculus of a country like Iran, so they see there are more
cost and fewer benefits to pursuing a nuclear weapons
program.'' I might add, for myself, that I think there's a
higher probability that that calculus will change if they think
we're serious about all the options that are on the table
including military. Do you agree with that?
General Cartwright. I do, Senator. The reason that we
believe that the sanctions and other measures, short of
military activity, are important is because they give us more
time, more decision time, more opportunities to intervene in
ways that are nonkinetic.
Senator Lieberman. Understood. I appreciate that. I thank
you very much.
Chairman Levin. Can you please describe nonkinetic for the
layperson?
General Cartwright. Not requiring military attacks.
Chairman Levin. Thank you.
Senator Chambliss.
Senator Chambliss. I'll direct this to Secretary Burns, but
anybody else should feel free to respond. It looks to me like,
Mr. Secretary, you've set your own time table and that is 12
months. That's the best guess, according to General Cartwright,
that they could be weaponized.
If that's the issue that we're going to prevent, then we
have to have sanctions put in place in time to stop the
weaponization of Iran within 12 months. Now, that means in my
mind pretty significant sanctions are going to have to be put
in place to work within a short period of time. Is there a plan
in place to work within a short period of time? Is there a plan
in place with respect to those sanctions that we can talk about
in this setting?
Ambassador Burns. Senator, first I'll defer to General
Cartwright on this, but I don't think we're talking about
weaponizing in 12 months. The conversations suggest a different
kind of timeframe for that.
That does not, however, diminish the sense of urgency we
feel about putting in place the strongest possible sanctions
regime. That means using a U.N. Security Council resolution.
That also means looking at measures we can employ and have
employed in the past.
It involves us continuing to push foreign companies to
sever their ties with Iran in a variety of sectors. We're going
to keep pushing on all those fronts just as hard as we can and
as fast as we can.
Senator Chambliss. Secretary Flournoy, did you want to add
something?
Ms. Flournoy. I just wanted to add with regard to the time
that we have taken for engagement and to work the sanctions
piece through the U.N. There are steps that we can take
unilaterally and we have taken unilaterally. But, our judgment
is that, if we really want to impose pressure on Iran that
actually affects their calculus, the only way to be effective
is to do that multilaterally, to have the international
community with us.
I think the fact that we made a good-faith engagement with
Iran has actually brought more of the international community
with us now that we are moving on the pressure track. The fact
that we're taking the time to try to get a U.N. Security
Council resolution will provide the legal and political
framework that will get us more effective measures by others,
like the EU, down the road. I think that the timeframe is
frustrating for all of us, but I think we will be much more
effective having taken the time to bring the international
community with us to apply coherent and cohesive pressure on
Iran.
Senator Chambliss. Let me go back to General Cartwright. I
think Senator Levin is right. We need to walk away from here
with clarity.
Now, I understood you to say that, in your opinion, Iran
could have a nuclear weapon within 12 months and, within 3 to 5
years, they'd have the capability of delivering that. Now are
you saying something different from that?
General Cartwright. I am, sir. I'm saying 3 to 5 years is
an historical estimate of how long it takes a nation with a low
enriching capability to move both through the high enrichment
protocols and then to the things that would put it together to
make it a weapon. That is 3 to 5 years. One year was the
discussion about how long it would take to produce HEU.
Senator Chambliss. Ok.
Chairman Levin. Since I think that's probably the clearest
summary that we've had, we probably ought to stop and quit
while we're ahead. [Laughter.]
This hearing has been very useful to us.
First of all, we thank you all for coming in, particularly
Secretary Burns. We know it's not always the case that we have
a DOS representative here. In this case, it was important. We
very much appreciate it.
We hope we've not gone beyond what it is appropriate in our
questions. We know you wouldn't in your answers for you to
address. Hopefully the unity of this committee, and I think
you've heard here how much strength and unity we feel and have
about this issue, about stopping Iran from getting a nuclear
weapon, came through today. We hope that that unity that you
heard here, and the American people will hopefully hear from
this committee and this Congress, will help you in your efforts
to gain support internationally for what you're trying to do.
We hope that's one of the outcomes. We know that
information is an important outcome for us and the American
people. It's also important that Iran hear a very strong,
unified message about Congress standing behind strong measures.
Hopefully, that will help you in gaining those strong
measures that can be used without military force. The military
option has to be there, we believe, but I think most of us,
maybe all of us, hope for you to succeed in your diplomatic
efforts as well. It's serious, and there's great unity of
purpose.
We thank you all for your testimony. We'll see you right
after we all run over and vote. There's a vote on the Senate
floor. We'll see you over in the Office of Senate Security in
the Capitol Visitor Center in a classified session. We stand
adjourned in the open session.
[Questions for the record with answers supplied follow:]
Questions Submitted by Senator Daniel K. Akaka
SANCTIONS PLANNING
1. Senator Akaka. Secretary Burns, President Obama recently stated
that one of the greatest threats to U.S. and global security is nuclear
proliferation. Despite previous rounds of sanctions and the threat of
additional sanctions, Iran has declared that it will continue
development of its nuclear program. What happens if this round of
negotiations and sanctions fails to slow or stop Iran's program?
Secretary Burns. The administration remains committed to its dual-
track strategy, which ultimately presents Iran with two choices: It can
rejoin the international community economically and politically by
fulfilling its international obligations under the Nuclear Non-
Proliferation Treaty and to the U.N. Security Council and International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), or it can face increasing pressure and
condemnation for its non-compliance.
At the moment, we are focused on securing broad international
support for a new U.N. Security Council resolution with meaningful
sanctions followed by states' adopting additional national measures. We
believe that these kinds of multilateral measures can most effectively
underscore to the Iranian Government the cost of defying the
international community. They are also the most difficult to evade.
Of course, we continue to work independently and with our allies to
take measures to deny Iran access to the technology and know-how it
needs to develop further its nuclear program, and are working with our
partners to limit Iran's ability to use the international financial
system to fund its proliferation activities.
Ultimately, as the administration has said before, all options are
on the table.
2. Senator Akaka. Secretary Flournoy, has the Department of Defense
(DOD) considered how to stop Iran's nuclear program if negotiations for
sanctions, or if sanctions, fail to stop Iran's nuclear program? Please
explain what DOD is doing to address Iran's nuclear program and the
long-term implications for U.S. national security.
Secretary Flournoy. DOD is committed to supporting the dual-track
strategy of engagement and pressure and believes it is premature to
talk about other options. The Department supports the current policy by
focusing on enhancing regional security cooperation with partners in
the Middle East. This focus not only reassures anxious states in the
region, but also sends a clear signal to Iran that pursuit of nuclear
weapons will lead to its own isolation and in the end make it less--not
more--secure. In addition, it is the Department's responsibility to
conduct prudent military planning, but as the Secretary has made clear,
while all options remain on the table, he does not view use of kinetic
force as the preferable course of action.
3. Senator Akaka. Secretary Burns, while U.S.-Iran economic
relations are limited, the United States has a key interest in Iran's
relations with other countries. As some European countries have curbed
trade and investment dealings with Iran, other countries, such as China
and Russia, have emerged as increasingly important economic partners.
Iran also has focused more heavily on regional trade opportunities,
such as with the United Arab Emirates. What courses of action can the
United States take to encourage others to curb trade and investments
with Iran with the goal of getting Iran to give up its nuclear weapons
ambitions?
Secretary Burns. The United States will continue to make clear to
the international community--both to governments and private sector--
that Iran is not a good place to do business. As part of our efforts to
increase the pressure on Iran to change its leadership decisionmaking
calculus, the U.S. Government has actively engaged with foreign
governments and companies to urge them to avoid commercial activity
with Iran. These efforts are bearing fruit, as we are seeing a positive
trend of companies recognizing the increased risks of doing business in
or with Iran and announcing that they are either discontinuing their
operations there or committing not to engage in any new activity with
Iran. So far this year, more international firms have announced they
are leaving Iran or undertaking no new business, than in the last 5
years combined. These companies include Ernst & Young, Price Waterhouse
Coopers, Lloyds, ABB Ltd., Caterpillar, Daimler AG, the Huntsman
Corporation, Ingersoll Rand, Linde, Siemens, Allianz, Munich Re, Baker
Hughes, ENI Spa, IPG, Glencore, Lukoil, Reliance Ltd., Smith
International, Trafigura, Vitol, and Total. Repsol also recently
informed us that they are abandoning their negotiations over a $10
billion project in the South Pars gas field.
4. Senator Akaka. Secretary Burns, I understand that the
administration is currently working with the United Nations Security
Council (UNSC) Permanent Five Members Plus Germany (P-5+1) to establish
sanctions against Iran in an attempt to compel Iran to abandon its
nuclear weapons ambitions. However, P-5+1 countries maintain
significant trade and financial interests with Iran. In today's
challenged world economy, these interests are all the more significant.
Given these significant trade and financial relationships, how can the
United States ensure that potential UNSC sanctions have the best chance
of success? Please describe any efforts the Department of State (DOS)
is undertaking in this regard.
Secretary Burns. The most effective sanctions are those that have
the broadest international support. These can most effectively
underscore to the Iranian Government the costs of defying the
international community. They are also the hardest to evade.
We have been very clear in our message to both foreign governments
and the international commercial sector that there are risks to doing
business in Iran, especially as it continues to violate its
international obligations on multiple fronts. We have seen that a
number of companies are responding to the increased political risk of
doing business in Iran. We will continue to be aggressive in our
efforts on this front, as well as current efforts to impose additional
accountability on Iran through expanded multilateral sanctions.
AMERICAN IMAGE
5. Senator Akaka. Secretary Burns, public diplomacy is an important
complement to traditional diplomacy in states like Iran, where large
and youthful populations are frustrated by the government's failure to
produce opportunities. What are your views on increasing the budget for
U.S. radio, Internet, and video broadcasting to Iran and the
possibility of cultural exchanges?
Secretary Burns. With nearly three quarters of Iran's population
under the age of 30, the vast majority of people living in the Islamic
Republic were born after Ayatollah Khomeini's rise to power and most
were only toddlers during the Iran-Iraq war. As a result, this new
generation's perception of their place in the world is fundamentally
different from that of their parents' generation. It is clear that the
Internet and new media tools are playing an integral role in connecting
Iranians to each other and to the outside world, as well as providing a
unique tool for Iranians to hold their government accountable.
The Department's Persian Digital Outreach Team is actively
utilizing innovative approaches to reach Iranian youth through social
networking and connective technologies. We post material on U.S.
policy, Iran-U.S. relations, and American society on a wide variety of
Persian-language web forums, blogs, and social media platforms such as
Facebook, YouTube, Friendfeed, and Twitter that are widely used in
Iran. Our social media presence reaches Iranian youth of various
political views and ensures that the United States is represented in
new media and conversation spaces. Additional resources would allow the
State Department to broaden existing programs and explore innovative
ways to leverage social networking tools and the traditional media to
maximize the effectiveness of our diplomatic initiatives.
The Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) media programming for
Iran, including the Voice of America's Persian News Network (PNN) and
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Radio Farda, are among the very few
Persian-language media outlets where the Iranian people can receive
uncensored, unbiased, and current news and information. After the June
2009 elections in Iran, additional broadcasts were added as a temporary
surge. The administration's request for fiscal year 2011 fully supports
the pre-surge funding levels for Radio Farda and the PNN. The BBG
expects to evaluate the situation in Iran going forward in fiscal year
2011, and will prioritize programming accordingly.
6. Senator Akaka. Secretary Burns, do you believe that additional
media and exchange initiatives would help change the U.S. image
presented to young Iranians by their government?
Secretary Burns. Given the lack of diplomatic ties with Iran for
more than 30 years and the Iranian Government firm grasp over all forms
of media, we are currently limited in our ability to influence how the
government of Iran portrays the United States to its citizens. In light
of this, we must continue efforts to directly engage the Iranian people
so that their image of the United States is based on engagement with
us, rather than what they are told by their government. Continued and
enhanced people-to-people exchanges help fight misinformation, build
cooperation, and lay the foundation for improved relations between the
United States and Iran. We also need to continue expanding the use of
social networking and connective technologies to not only get our
message out but to also engage with the Iranian people via digital
platforms.
Allocating additional resources would allow us to respond more
effectively to the demographic shift in Iran by ramping up our digital
outreach efforts in Persian, expanding engagement with Iranian youth,
and improving our ability to rapidly respond to Iranian misinformation
campaigns using multiple media platforms.
MISSILE DEFENSE
7. Senator Akaka. General Cartwright, the administration modified
its missile defense plans in the fall of 2009 to now include the Phased
Adaptive Approach. Please provide your thoughts on the potential
utility of the systems developed for this new approach with respect to
our Iran policy and the previous missile defense approach.
General Cartwright. One of the key factors in changing our approach
to European missile defense was updated assessment of the threat,
specifically from Iran. The Phased Adaptive Approach and the land-based
SM-3, or ``Aegis Ashore'' systems being developed were chosen for their
ability to better defend against threat missiles originating in Iran.
The first envisioned role of Aegis Ashore is defense of our forces,
allies, and partners in Europe, and this new system will do that with
greater effectiveness than the previous approach of two-stage Ground-
Based Interceptors stationed in Europe. This effectiveness will be
measured in both the capacity of the Aegis system's larger quantity of
interceptors to respond to more threat missiles, as well as the
system's ability to defend against the medium-range ballistic missiles
which comprise the most immediate threat to Europe. Additionally, these
capabilities are scheduled to be available in the 2015 timeframe, 3
years earlier than in the previous approach. These capabilities will
contribute to the overall effort to deter Iranian aggression.
______
Questions Submitted by Senator Claire McCaskill
RELATIONSHIPS WITH NEIGHBORS AND SUPPORT FOR TERRORIST GROUPS
8. Senator McCaskill. Secretary Burns, Iran has a history of
projecting its regional influence by strong-arming weaker countries in
the region or inserting itself into the political affairs of countries
such as Iraq and Afghanistan to throw off the efforts of the United
States. I am particularly concerned about its role with neighbors
Afghanistan and Pakistan. How would you characterize the relationship
between Pakistan and Iran at this time?
Secretary Burns. While I cannot speak for other governments, as
neighbors with economic, cultural, and religious ties, Iran and
Pakistan both seem interested in maintaining a cordial relationship.
Within the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran trilateral framework, both
countries have exchanged views and agreed to coordinate their positions
to support peace, stability, and development in Afghanistan. The
Pakistan-Iran relationship, however, is strained by a number of
competing interests. Ongoing differences over the future of Afghanistan
cause tension, as does Pakistan's concern that Iran seeks to promote
its sectarian Shiite socio-political model in Pakistan's Shia
communities. Iran, for its part, fears Pakistan's relationship with
elements of the Taliban. Iran is also troubled by Pakistan's ties with
the West, particularly by the security relationship between our two
nations.
9. Senator McCaskill. Secretary Burns, how would you characterize
the relationship between Afghanistan and Iran at this time?
Secretary Burns. Iran pursues multiple agendas in Afghanistan,
where it has strong historical, cultural, and economic ties. The
Iranian economy has long been intertwined with the northern and western
Afghanistan economy, and Iran has engaged significantly in Afghan
politics since the Bonn Conference of 2001, in which it played a
constructive role in encouraging the formation of an interim
government. Iran's overall role is ambiguous, however, as it also
pursues policies that undermine U.S. and NATO efforts in Afghanistan.
While it provides constructive development assistance, we continue to
receive reports that indicate Iran may also be providing military
assistance to some insurgents.
10. Senator McCaskill. Secretary Flournoy, Secretary Burns, General
Cartwright, and General Burgess, is Iran exacerbating the difficulties
the United States and its partners face on the Afghanistan-Pakistan
border?
Secretary Flournoy. Iran is playing a double game in Afghanistan.
It provides rhetorical and material support for the Afghan Government
while also providing sustained material support to insurgents, thus
impeding U.S. and allied efforts to stabilize the country. Tehran
generally sees the Taliban as an enemy and does not want to see them
back in power. Nevertheless, Iran has provided limited lethal
assistance to the Taliban to hedge against increased U.S./Western
presence on its eastern border.
Secretary Burns. According to Afghanistan authorities, Iran has
increased its cooperation with Afghan border guards to improve security
on its border with Afghanistan. We, however, remain concerned that Iran
has provided lethal support to elements of the Taliban, which is used
against Afghan and NATO security forces, and international and Afghan
civilians. Apart from these indications of support to the Taliban, we
have no indications of significant Iranian activity along the Pakistan-
Afghanistan border. We will continue to call on Iran to cease all such
destabilizing support and work with Afghanistan forces to better deter,
detect, and disrupt illicit border activities.
General Cartwright. Iran is playing a double game in Afghanistan.
It combines rhetorical and material support for the Afghan government
while providing a continuing amount of material support to insurgents
thus impeding U.S. and allied efforts to stabilize the country. Tehran
generally sees the Taliban as an enemy and does not want to see them
back in power. Nevertheless, Iran has provided limited lethal
assistance to the Taliban to hedge against increased U.S./Western
presence on its eastern border.
General Burgess. [Deleted.]
11. Senator McCaskill. Secretary Flournoy, Secretary Burns, General
Cartwright, and General Burgess, how would you characterize Iran's
relationship with the Afghan Taliban, so-called Pakistani Taliban,
Haqqani network, and other Pakistan-based terrorist groups?
Secretary Flournoy. Iran continues to provide lethal assistance to
the various elements of the Afghan insurgency. Tehran's support for
these groups is inconsistent with its historic enmity, but fits with
Iran's overall strategy of backing many groups to ensure a positive
relationship with potential leaders, and hedging against foreign
presence. However, ultimately because it does not share the same
historic ties and ideological goals Iran does not have the same type of
relationship with Afghan insurgent groups as it does with surrogates
such as Shia militants in Iraq or Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Secretary Burns. As a predominantly Shia country, Iran has an
ambivalent relationship with the militant Sunni Taliban. It also
remembers the 1998 murder of eight Iranian diplomats by the Taliban in
Mazar-i-Sharif as well as Taliban atrocities against the Shia Hazara
population of Afghanistan. While Iran has no interest in seeing the
Taliban insurgency succeed, they are also uneasy about the large U.S.
and NATO military presence on Iran's eastern border and do provide
tactical support to select Taliban as a means to make this presence
costly for the United States and our allies.
Iran's primary instrument for providing lethal support to the
Taliban is the Islamic Revolutionary Guards' Qods Force, an element of
the Iranian Government. This same organization provides weapons and
training to the terrorist Hizballah organization and to select groups
of Shia militants in Iraq.
General Cartwright. [Deleted.]
General Burgess. [Deleted.]
DRUG TRAFFICKING
12. Senator McCaskill. Secretary Flournoy and General Cartwright,
Afghanistan's opium trade that emanates throughout Asia, Europe, and
elsewhere is a significant problem that vexes the U.S. Government.
Iran, too, is wrestling with its own serious illegal drug issue; the UN
estimates it has over 2 million addicts. Moreover, Iran is also a major
transit route for drugs emanating from Afghanistan, many of which are
bound for use in Europe. Given our non-normalized state of relations
with Iran, how does DOD factor Iran into our regional counter-narcotics
strategy?
Secretary Flournoy. The current interdiction effort in Afghanistan
should result in fewer opiates exporting through Iran. We have
bolstered the border crossing point in Islam Qalah in the northwest
region of Afghanistan bordering Iran. Iran has made significant efforts
to counter the drug flow coming from Afghanistan and has strengthened
its borders with Afghanistan to bolster their efforts. DOD looks to DOS
for diplomatic engagement with Iran on these issues during Paris Pact
and United Nation meetings.
General Cartwright. The current interdiction effort in Afghanistan
should result in fewer opiates exporting through Iran. We have
bolstered the border crossing point in Islam Qalah in the northwest
region of Afghanistan bordering Iran. The Department looks for ways to
coordinate counternarcotic efforts with Iran, but given the current
relationship between our two countries, it is difficult. Iran has made
significant efforts to counter the drug flow coming from Afghanistan
and has strengthened its borders with Afghanistan to bolster their
efforts.
13. Senator McCaskill. Secretary Flournoy and Secretary Burns, how
are we addressing Iran's role as a transit point for opium emanating
from Afghanistan?
Secretary Flournoy. DOD has not focused specifically on Iran as a
transit zone for Afghan opiates. DOD is, however, working with
bordering nations, including Turkmenistan, Pakistan, and Turkey, to
curb the flow of Afghan opium entering Europe and Asia. A whole-of-
government approach, focusing on diplomacy, needs to be taken to
address this issue.
Secretary Burns. We are working with Afghanistan to build a border
security force that has the manpower and resources to enhance border
monitoring, detection, and disruption capabilities. In addition, we
work closely with Iran's other neighbors, particularly Turkey and the
Central Asian states, on border security and narcotics interdiction.
14. Senator McCaskill. Secretary Flournoy and Secretary Burns,
although Iran has an obvious national interest in fighting the flow of
drugs, does the Iranian state profit in any way from the illicit drug
trade?
Secretary Flournoy. [Deleted.]
Secretary Burns. The Iranian Government has taken aggressive
actions to interdict the flow of drugs on its border, and the Iranian
Government does not, as a matter of policy, encourage or facilitate
illicit production or distribution of narcotic or psychotropic drugs or
other controlled substances, or the laundering of proceeds from illegal
drug transactions. That said, we cannot rule out the possibility that
corrupt government officials may be taking advantage of the drug trade
to line their pockets.
15. Senator McCaskill. Secretary Flournoy and Secretary Burns, how
are DOD and DOS working with other regional actors, such as
Turkmenistan, to address the issue of drug trafficking through Iran?
Secretary Flournoy. The U.S. Embassy Ashgabat has an internal
counternarcotics working group consisting of State International
Narcotics and Law Enforcement, State Political/Economics, State Export
Control and Border Security (EXBS), and DOD representatives. This
working group provides the Deputy Chief of Mission recommendations for
counternarcotics programs and projects. As a result of this working
group's efforts, and DOD counternarcotics funding, construction was
completed on a border crossing point at Altyn Nasir. Moreover, there is
funding in fiscal year 2010 to construct a second border crossing point
at Sarahs. Both border crossing points are on the Iranian border. DOD
counternarcotics has also provided training, scanning equipment, and
radio communications equipment. In fiscal year 2010 DOD will continue
to provide training and additional communications equipment.
DOD counternarcotics also supports counternarcotic efforts in
Pakistan, building naval forces capacity to detect, monitor, and
interdict drug shipments along the Makron Coast, some of which are
headed for Iran.
Secretary Burns. The State Department's bilateral assistance
programs in Central Asia foster border security, law enforcement, and
counternarcotics efforts that contribute to a regional solution to the
Afghanistan-origin drug trafficking problem. Implementing partners
include the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the International
Organization for Migration (IOM), and various U.S. Government agencies.
The U.S. Government appropriated over $7 million toward
counternarcotics programming in Turkmenistan in fiscal year 2009. DOS's
EXBS program works to develop the capacities of border officials and
facilities in Central Asian countries. The State Department Bureau of
International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs works to develop
the capacity of law enforcement agencies in the region to interdict
narcotics and investigate drug-related crime, in cooperation with
national governments and the UNODC. On a multilateral level, the U.S.
Government has provided $3.8 million over 10 years for the development
of the Central Asian Regional Information and Coordination Center, an
information-sharing and operational coordination body that targets drug
trafficking in the region.
The State Department and DOD also work closely in Turkmenistan to
improve the capabilities of Turkmenistan's border guard to interdict
narcotics along the Turkmen-Iranian border. DOD funded the construction
of the Altyn Asyr border checkpoint, a main commercial port-of-entry on
the Turkmen-Iranian border. In addition, the State Department has
funded UNODC to conduct training of border guards and customs officers
at this port-of-entry. DOD and State have followed a similar
construction/training model at ports-of-entry at the Turkmen/Afghan and
Turkmen/Uzbek borders. Additionally, U.S. Central Command has provided
$1.875 million in communications equipment toward counternarcotics
efforts along Turkmenistan's borders.
16. Senator McCaskill. Secretary Flournoy, Secretary Burns, and
General Burgess, do we have effective drug detection and interdiction
capabilities along the Afghan-Iranian border?
Secretary Flournoy. Drug detection and drug interdiction are
primarily law enforcement missions. However, DOD requested funding in
fiscal year 2010 for a border crossing facility at Zaranj on the border
with Iran, and we recently expanded Afghan Border Police training to
cover Afghan policemen from Regional Command West at a training site in
the village of Shouz. That site will train up to 3,700 Afghan Border
Police personnel per year, many of whom will be posted on the Afghan
border with Iran. As the lead agency for drug interdiction, the Drug
Enforcement Administration may be able to provide additional
information on its interdiction operations along the Afghan-Iranian
border.
Secretary Burns. The State Department is working with the Afghan
Government to improve its drug detection and interdiction capabilities
along the Afghan-Iran border, including efforts to build a border
security force that has the manpower and resources to enhance border
monitoring, detection, and disruption capabilities. The Department also
encourages regional and multilateral initiatives, such as the UNODC's
Triangular Initiative, which is designed to strengthen border control
cooperation between Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan. I would refer you
to DOD for further specific information on their work in the area.
General Burgess. [Deleted.]
17. Senator McCaskill. Secretary Flournoy and Secretary Burns, has
there been any cooperation with Iran on the issue of drug interdiction,
either through the Afghans or through other third-party actors?
Secretary Flournoy. Historically, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan
do not conduct coordinated counternarcotic operations, although these
countries have recently formed a partnership called the Triangular
Initiative to improve their efforts to combat narcotics trafficking. We
support increased cooperation among these countries on counternarcotic
efforts.
Secretary Burns. The United States does not have any direct,
bilateral cooperation with Iran on drug interdiction in the Afghan
border area. However, the U.S. Government has engaged Iran on drug
interdiction efforts in multilateral forums such as the March 2010
meeting of the U.N. Commission on Narcotic Drugs, which was chaired by
Iran. We also work on narcotics interdiction efforts directly with
Iran's neighbors, such as Afghanistan, Turkey, and the Central Asian
states, and in various regional forums like the Triangular Initiative,
which in turn engage Iran directly on these issues. In Afghanistan, for
example, we have worked with that nation's government to build a border
security force that has the manpower and resources to enhance border
monitoring, detection, and disruption capabilities.
IRAN SANCTIONS ACT
18. Senator McCaskill. Secretary Flournoy, the Iran Sanctions Act
(ISA) was supposed to penalize companies doing business with the
Iranian regime and supporting the Revolutionary Guard in particular.
However, the U.S. Government has not enforced the ISA, in part due to
concerns about reaction from allies. At the same time, DOD has spent
millions on contracts with foreign and U.S. firms that violate the ISA.
I realize that DOD and DOS are making some progress in dissuading some
companies from doing business with Iran, but I feel like we have a long
way to go for a robust enforcement of the ISA. Does DOD currently have
contracts with companies who could be considered in violation of the
ISA? If so, please provide a listing of these companies and reasoning
as to why there is need for contracting with these companies.
Secretary Flournoy. We are concerned that the proposed Iran
sanctions language in the fiscal year 2010 supplemental bill does not
contain a presidential waiver provision for national security
interests. As drafted this could seriously degrade DOD's ability to
provide fuel support to military operations, including in Iraq and
Afghanistan. DOD awards contracts to affiliates of BP, Shell, ENI, and
Total, all of which are listed on the DOE/EIA website as doing business
in Iran. Under the bill as currently written, these would become
prohibited sources. While the contracts awarded to these firms
represent less than 20 percent of the total contracts awarded by
Defense Energy Support Center, they represent critical support in
critical locations. For example, Shell is the supplier of JP-5 for the
east gulf coast; Total holds 66 percent of the into-plane contracts for
Africa and is the only source of aviation gasoline outside the United
States. We are also concerned about the impact of Iran sanctions
legislation on Turkish firms that truck fuel into Iraq, and on the
Kuwaiti national oil company that supplies the majority of the fuel for
operations in Iraq.
19. Senator McCaskill. Secretary Flournoy, does DOD have structures
in place to vet companies for violations of ISA or other sanctions?
Secretary Flournoy. The Defense Logistics Agency, which is DOD's
largest logistics combat support entity, and provides worldwide
logistics support to the military services as well as several civilian
agencies and foreign countries, uses Federal Acquisition Regulation
25.1103(a) to vet companies who violate the ISA or other sanctions.
This regulation requires insertion of the following clause into every
solicitation, contract, and subcontract: ``(a) Except as authorized by
the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) in the Department of the
Treasury, the Contractor shall not acquire, for use in the performance
of this contract, any supplies or services if any proclamation,
Executive order, or statute administered by OFAC, or if OFAC's
implementing regulations at 31 CFR chapter V, would prohibit such a
transaction by a person subject to the jurisdiction of the United
States. (b) Except as authorized by OFAC, most transactions involving
Cuba, Iran, and Sudan are prohibited. . . . Lists of entities and
individuals subject to economic sanctions are included in OFAC's List
of Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons. . .''
DLA contracting officers are required to check the list of
Specifically Designated Nationals before awarding a contract in order
to verify that the offeror and offeror's negotiators are not on the
list.
______
Questions Submitted by Senator Mark Begich
COMPANIES OPERATING IN IRAN
20. Senator Begich. Secretary Burns, which energy companies and
banks still do business in Iran?
Secretary Burns. Given the large size of the global energy sector
and our lack of an embassy presence in Iran, we do not have a
comprehensive list of all of the energy companies that do business in
Iran. Both the Government Accountability Office and the Congressional
Research Service have published reports on companies doing business in
certain parts of the energy sector. It is important to note, though,
that these reports often rely on open source reporting, which we have
found to be sometimes unreliable with respect to Iran. Furthermore, as
you likely know, pursuant to our statutory obligations under the ISA,
we track and monitor all of the major upstream development activities
that could trigger sanctions under the act. The ISA has been a
particularly useful tool which has been used to convince foreign
companies to consider their interests in the United States when making
decisions about participating in oil and gas development projects in
Iran. We have convinced a significant number of companies to reduce or
terminate their dealings with Iran in order to avoid additional
scrutiny by our government. Partially as a result of our coordinated
and comprehensive efforts, major international oil companies including
Total, Statoil, ENI, Lukoil, and others have publicly committed not to
undertake any new activities in Iran at this time. Repsol also recently
informed us, but have not announced publicly, that they have taken the
decision to discontinue their participation in the Persian LNG project.
Other companies such as Shell, Reliance, Vitol, Trafigura, Glencore,
and IPG have announced that they will no longer sell refined petroleum
products to Iran.
With respect to the banks that are doing business in Iran we would
refer you to the Department of Treasury, which is the agency that
tracks this sector most closely.
21. Senator Begich. Secretary Burns, which companies have recently
abandoned operations in Iran due to U.S. or international pressure?
Secretary Burns. The United States is making clear that Iran is not
a good place to do business. As part of our efforts to increase the
pressure on Iran and change the Government of Iran's decisionmaking
calculus, the U.S. Government has actively engaged with foreign
governments and companies to urge them to avoid commercial activity
with Iran. These efforts are bearing fruit, as we are seeing a positive
trend of companies recognizing the increased risks of doing business in
or with Iran and announcing that they are either discontinuing their
operations there or committing not to engage in any new activity with
Iran. So far this year, more international firms have announced they
are leaving Iran or undertaking no new business, than in the last 5
years. These companies include Ernst & Young, Price Waterhouse Coopers,
Lloyds, ABB Ltd., Caterpillar, Daimler AG, the Huntsman Corporation,
Ingersoll Rand, Linde, Siemens, Allianz, Munich Re, Baker Hughes, ENI
Spa, IPG, Glencore, Lukoil, Reliance Ltd., Smith International,
Trafigura, Vitol, and Total. Repsol also recently informed us that they
are abandoning their negotiations over a $10 billion project in the
South Pars gas field.
IMPACT OF SANCTIONS
22. Senator Begich. Secretary Burns, what U.N. sanctions have been
imposed on Iran?
Secretary Burns. Since 2006, Iran has been under international
sanctions for failing to comply with U.N. Security Council resolutions
that require it, primarily but not exclusively, to suspend its
enrichment of uranium. The process of imposing Security Council
sanctions came after a 2006 ``referral'' of the issue to the Council by
the IAEA.
U.N. Security Council Resolution 1737, adopted about 6 months after
the formation of the P5+1 working group on Iran's nuclear program, was
the first U.N. resolution to actually impose sanctions on Iran for its
refusal to suspend the enrichment of uranium and to meet other Security
Council demands. Most significantly, 1737 sets up a process whereby the
Security Council designated Iranian entities and persons as involved in
its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs, and mandates U.N.
member states freeze the assets on their territories that are owned or
controlled by these entities. This list of designated entities was
expanded in subsequent U.N. Security Council resolutions.
U.N. Security Council Resolution 1747 was adopted to further
tighten international sanctions on Iran because of its refusal to meet
the demands of previous resolutions, particularly the requirement that
Iran suspend enrichment of uranium. It added a large number of entities
and Iranian persons, mostly Revolutionary Guard commanders, subjected
to those sanctions specified in Resolution 1737. UNSCR 1747 is also
significant in that, in Annex II, it presents an incentive package to
Iran, agreed by the P5+1 to try to induce Iran to comply. That package
of incentives was further enhanced in June 2008. In addition, this
resolution expanded sanctions beyond those applying directly to the
nuclear program by banning Iran's export of arms. U.N. Security Council
Resolution 1803, adopted March 3, 2008, imposed additional new
sanctions on Iran. Resolution 1803 was particularly significant for
imposing a mandatory ban on travel by certain Iranian persons named in
Annex II to the resolution, going beyond the purely voluntary ban on
travel imposed in Resolution 1747. Resolution 1803 also gave U.N.
member states the authority to inspect cargo carried by Iran Air Cargo
or the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line if there is reason to
suspect the vehicles operated by these entities are carrying WMD or
other prohibited technology to Iran. Other measures, such as
restricting export credits to Iran and ending dealings with several
Iranian banks, are stipulated in the resolution but are not mandatory.
A subsequent resolution, 1835, reiterated the international
community's insistence on Iranian compliance, but did not add any new
sanctions.
23. Senator Begich. Secretary Flournoy, Secretary Burns, General
Cartwright, and General Burgess, has there been any notable changes to
Iranian conduct after past enactment of sanctions?
Secretary Flournoy. Sanctions are an imperfect tool and by no means
a silver bullet. However, they do have both a material and
psychological effect, particularly when they have broad international
support. As such, I believe that if effectively targeted and leveraged,
sanctions will have a substantial effect on the Iranian leadership's
calculus. Whether that effect will bring Iran back to the negotiating
table or convince it to make material concessions on its nuclear
program remains to be seen.
Secretary Burns. We believe that our multilateral efforts over the
past several years have had an impact on Iran, which we seek to amplify
through additional pressure. Past IAEA and UNSC resolutions have been
effective in restricting Iran's access to materials, equipment, and
technology that would make a material contribution to its nuclear
program. These sanctions have also underscored the danger of business
dealings with a country that stands in serial violation of its
international obligations. As a result, dozens of businesses over
several years have withdrawn from business in Iran, increasing Iran's
isolation from international financial centers and trade.
General Cartwright. I will have to defer to Secretary Burns to
provide a competent answer on this point. I am unable to state if there
have been changes in Iranian conduct after sanctions were enacted.
General Burgess. [Deleted.]
SENATE VERSION OF NEW IRANIAN SANCTIONS
24. Senator Begich. Secretary Flournoy and Secretary Burns, does
the administration support the Dodd-Shelby Comprehensive Iran
Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act (S. 2799)?
Secretary Flournoy. The administration does not support the
legislation as currently drafted but shares Congress's concerns and
sense of urgency, and welcomes tools that will increase the pressure on
Iran to meet its international obligations. The administration has
already shared a number of ideas with Congress on changes it would like
to see to the legislation, and we look forward to continuing to work
with Congress to craft an appropriate way to achieve these common
objectives.
Secretary Burns. We believe that Congress and the administration
share the objective of achieving Iran's compliance with U.N. Security
Council Resolutions and the NPT. Accordingly, we have been working with
the appointed Senate and House conferees to craft an appropriate way to
achieve these objectives as the legislation goes through conference.
Our goals remain the same: to change Iran's decisionmaking on its
nuclear program, to keep our international coalition together so that
Iran sees clearly the unity it faces, and to maintain the President's
flexibility to conduct foreign policy.
______
Questions Submitted by Senator George S. LeMieux
TERRORIST NETWORKS IN SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA
25. Senator LeMieux. Secretary Burns, one of my great concerns is
the partnership developing between Iran and Venezuela. In an indictment
earlier this year, a Spanish judge accused the Basque separatist group
Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA) and the narco-terrorist organization based
in Colombia, Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), of plotting
to kill Colombian politicians in Spain with Venezuelan governmental
cooperation. I am concerned that these terrorist groups could use the
networks employed by organized crime organizations, drug traffickers,
and narco-terrorists such as the FARC to smuggle terrorists or
materials to support terrorism into the United States. What specific
measures has the administration taken in the last 12 months to ensure
Iranian ties with the Venezuelan Government do not facilitate
operations by Hezbollah and Hamas in South and Central America?
Secretary Burns. We are concerned with the increasing links between
Iran and Venezuela and will continue to monitor this relationship
closely. While we see a growing Iranian interest in and engagement with
Venezuela, at this time, it appears to be largely diplomatic and
commercial. As with any country, we fully expect Venezuela to meet its
own international responsibilities and obligations, such as the U.N.
Security Council's strict prohibition on trade in certain goods with
Iran.
Where merited, we have taken targeted actions including: In October
2008, the Treasury Department designated both the Export Development
Bank of Iran and its wholly-owned subsidiary in Caracas, Banco
Internacional de Desarrollo, CA, for providing or attempting to provide
financial services to Iran's Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces
Logistics. This designation prohibits all transactions between the
designees and any U.S. person, and freezes any assets the designees may
have under U.S. jurisdiction. In June 2008, Treasury froze the assets
of two Venezuelans for providing financial and other support to
Hezbollah.
GREEN REVOLUTION
26. Senator LeMieux. Secretary Burns, what assistance is the United
States or relevant nongovernmental organizations providing the Green
Revolution in Iran?
Secretary Burns. In addition to the moral support we lend activists
working for civil rights in Iran, we continue to quietly help Iranians
acquire the tools to create the space--on the Internet, in journalism,
and in the arts--where free thought and expression can flourish. Since
2004, the State Department has supported projects to help Iranian civil
society make its voice heard in calling for greater freedoms,
accountability, transparency, and rule of law from its government.
However, we do not fund political parties, movements, or factions. As
the President has said, we are not interfering in the debate Iranians
are having about their election and its aftermath. This is a debate
among Iranians, about Iran's future.
Respecting the sovereignty of Iran, however, does not mean our
silence on issues of fundamental rights and freedoms, such as the right
to peacefully protest.
27. Senator LeMieux. Secretary Burns, do you see the Green
Revolution in Iran as a strategic opportunity for substantive change
for the Iranian people?
Secretary Burns. It is still too early to tell what lasting impact
the Green Movement will have on Iran's internal political dynamics, but
prospects for reform remain uncertain. While we have not seen large-
scale protests by the Green Movement in several months, deep rifts
between the government and much of the public, and between various
factions within the government, continue to persist. Unfortunately, we
have not seen an end of the government's repressive tactics to stifle
dissent or criticism.
IRANIAN MILITARY
28. Senator LeMieux. General Cartwright, Secretary Clinton recently
commented that the Iranian military is probably playing a significant
role in running Iran. ``We see that the Government of Iran, the supreme
leader, the president, the parliament, is being supplanted, and that
Iran is moving toward a military dictatorship. Now, that is our view.''
What is your assessment of the role the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
currently plays in governing the country?
General Cartwright. [Deleted.]
PURSUIT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY
29. Senator LeMieux. Secretary Flournoy, Secretary Burns, General
Cartwright, and General Burgess, over the weekend, Secretary Gates said
that it was the U.S. assessment that Iran was not yet nuclear capable.
Last March, the CIA's Weapons Intelligence Nonproliferation and Arms
Control Center (WINPAC) reported, ``Iran continues to develop a range
of capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if
a decision is made to do so.'' How confident is the administration that
the Iranian regime will not make the decision to produce nuclear
weapons once they have the capability?
Secretary Flournoy. This answer is best given by the Intelligence
Community (IC). I refer you to Lieutenant General Burgess's classified
response.
Secretary Burns. A U.N. Security Council resolution alone is
unlikely to bring about the change in Iran's policies that we seek.
But, in combination with the implementation of pressure across a wide
array of Iranian interests, we believe this is the best way to bring
about a shift in Iran's strategic calculus.
General Cartwright. I will have to defer to Secretary Flournoy to
provide a competent answer on this point.
General Burgess. [Deleted.]
30. Senator LeMieux. Secretary Flournoy, Secretary Burns, General
Cartwright, and General Burgess, it seems the WINPAC report contradicts
the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate assessing that Iran was ``less
determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since
2005.'' Do you agree?
Secretary Flournoy. Iranian nuclear intentions remain an issue of
paramount interest and concern to the intelligence and the policy
communities. As new information emerges, and as the Iranian nuclear
program evolves, we evaluate and reassess Tehran's ultimate intentions.
At this time, we continue to assess that Iran is keeping open the
option to develop nuclear weapons in part by developing various nuclear
capabilities that bring it closer to being able to produce such
weapons, should it choose to do so. We continue to judge that Iran's
nuclear decisionmaking is guided by a cost-benefit approach, which
offers the international community opportunities to influence Tehran.
Iranian leaders undoubtedly consider Iran's security, prestige, and
influence, as well as the international political and security
environment, when making decisions about its nuclear program.
Secretary Burns. I would refer you the IC for its assessment on the
pace of Iran's nuclear weapons capabilities.
General Cartwright. [Deleted.]
General Burgess. [Deleted.]
31. Senator LeMieux. Secretary Flournoy, Secretary Burns, General
Cartwright, and General Burgess, given the ever-changing nature of our
intelligence assessments on the Iranian program, how long can we be
certain that Iran is not nuclear capable?
Secretary Flournoy. The Iranian nuclear program and intentions
remain issues of paramount interest and concern to the intelligence and
the policy communities, and are matters that we continue to watch very
closely. At this time, we continue to judge that Iran is not nuclear
weapons capable. We assess that Iran is keeping open the option to
develop nuclear weapons in part by developing various nuclear
capabilities that bring it closer to being able to produce such
weapons, should it choose to do so. As new information emerges and as
the Iranian nuclear program evolves, we will continue to reevaluate and
reassess Tehran's ultimate intentions and potential capabilities.
Secretary Burns. Iran's extensive attempts over the past several
years to engage in clandestine and undeclared nuclear activities have
contributed greatly to the lack of international confidence in the
nature of its nuclear program.
I would refer you to the IC for any further assessments on the pace
of Iran's nuclear capabilities.
General Cartwright. Since this question directly concerns
intelligence assessments I will have to defer to General Burgess to
provide an answer.
General Burgess. [Deleted.]
32. Senator LeMieux. Secretary Flournoy, what would be the effect
on American forces in the Middle East if Iran were successful in
developing a nuclear bomb?
Secretary Flournoy. The consequences of a nuclear-armed Iran would
be highly destabilizing for the Middle East and could have significant
implications for U.S. forces. However, no one can say with certainty
how the situation might unfold. That is why we remain committed to
preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. A nuclear armed Iran
could cause other states in the Middle East to pursue nuclear programs.
It could also embolden Iran in its actions throughout the region most
notably by expanding its support for proxies. A nuclear-armed Iran
could also cause strategic instability that could eventually lead to a
regional conflict. Such consequences would increase the requirements on
the U.S. military, put our forces at greater risk, and potentially draw
us into conflict.
33. Senator LeMieux. Secretary Flournoy and Secretary Burns, is
there a containment strategy for Iran in place and ready in the event
they do acquire a nuclear weapon?
Secretary Flournoy. As the President has stated, our policy is to
prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Steps we take to build the
capabilities of our partners to counter Iranian proxies and build an
integrated air and missile defense architecture to contain and deter
Iranian aggression support our diplomatic efforts to prevent nuclear
proliferation in Iran.
Secretary Burns. As the President and other senior U.S. Government
officials have stated repeatedly, we will not accept a nuclear-armed
Iran and we are committed to a diplomatic resolution over the Iran
nuclear challenge. We will continue to pursue the administration's
dual-track approach--combining engagement with pressure--to reach a
peaceful solution. But similar to the military, we--in coordination
with the interagency--are constantly reviewing our foreign policy
strategies and modifying them as appropriate.
SANCTIONS
34. Senator LeMieux. Secretary Burns, the administration has
frequently talked about meaningful sanctions. What types of sanctions
do you think would be meaningful enough for Iran to stop pursuing its
goal of developing nuclear weapons?
Secretary Burns. The members of the P5+1 understand that we need to
increase the pressure on Iran in order to bring it back to the
negotiating table. While we cannot discuss the elements of a possible
UNSCR, we can assure you that we are working intensively and very
cooperatively with our partners in New York and in capitals on a broad
range of proposals that we think will meet our common objective.
______
Questions Submitted by Senator David Vitter
SECURITY COUNCIL AND CONGRESSIONAL SANCTIONS
35. Senator Vitter. Secretary Burns, the administration has
seemingly put the Dodd-Shelby Comprehensive Iran Sanctions,
Accountability, and Divestment Act (S. 2799) on hold in Congress, and
instead is pursuing just the UNSC path. Presumably, a UNSC sanctions
resolution will be weaker than what the United States could implement
if they followed the direction of Congress. Therefore, I am afraid that
the pursuit of a weaker sanctions resolution will simply delay stronger
sanctions by the United States and will give the Iranians more time
because both the process and the substance will further hold up action.
If a UNSC resolution is ratified, do you think the United States should
continue to aggressively pursue and implement S. 2799 that has been
stalled in Congress?
Secretary Burns. The administration shares Congress's concerns with
Iran's nuclear program, and we ultimately share its goal of getting
Iran to respect its international obligations and resolve concerns
about the intent of its nuclear program. At this moment we are focused
on creating a broad international coalition that can sharpen the
choices for Iran through action at the U.N. Security Council. The most
effective sanctions are those that are broadly enforced by the
international community, which is why adopting a new resolution at the
U.N. Security Council is so important.
36. Senator Vitter. Secretary Burns, if a UNSC resolution is
ratified, will the administration delay the implementation of a bill
from Congress sanctioning additional Iranian activities?
Secretary Burns. We believe that Congress and the administration
share the objective of achieving Iran's compliance with U.N. Security
Council resolutions and the NPT. Accordingly, we have been working with
the appointed Senate and House conferees to craft an appropriate way to
achieve these objectives as the legislation goes through conference.
Our goals remain the same: to change Iran's decisionmaking on its
nuclear program, to keep our international coalition together so that
Iran sees clearly the unity it faces, and to maintain the President's
flexibility to conduct foreign policy.
37. Senator Vitter. Secretary Burns, is the United States willing
to act alone or in a smaller group of countries on sanctions if a UNSC
resolution is not passed?
Secretary Burns. At this moment we are focused on creating a broad
international coalition that can sharpen the choices for Iran through
action at the U.N. Security Council. We believe we will need to
pressure Iran on multiple fronts in order to convince it to address
international concerns over its nuclear program, and that pressure is
most effective when it is applied by as broad a coalition as possible.
We believe a new UNSCR can serve as a platform for additional national
and multinational measures, and we are consulting with a wide range of
partners on ways we can tighten existing sanctions.
38. Senator Vitter. Secretary Burns, how quickly can the United
States act upon the possible voting down of a UNSC resolution?
Secretary Burns. We are focused on creating a broad international
coalition that can sharpen the choices for Iran through U.N. Security
Council action. While diplomacy is obviously our first choice, we are
also prudently preparing for the full range of contingencies on Iran,
and the President has been clear that no options have been taken off
the table.
[Whereupon, at 12:35 p.m., the committee adjourned.]
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