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STATEMENT BY
KARL ZINSMEISTER
J.B. FUQUA FELLOW
AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE

 BEFORE THE
HOUSE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE
UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

"ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENTS AMONG
IRAQ'S RISING MAJORITY"

  OCTOBER 29, 2003    
  

Thank you Mr. Chairman, and members of the committee.

Let me open by stating that the remarks I have for you this morning are built on several bodies of evidence. I am the J.B. Fuqua Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. I was an embedded reporter during the hot war in Iraq , and have written the first book about the war from an embed, entitled Boots on the Ground: A Month with the 82nd Airborne in the Battle for Iraq. I remain in close touch with U.S. soldiers and civilians in Iraq who are temporarily the princes of that land as well as its military guardians. I commissioned and wrote the first scientific poll of ordinary Iraqis, which the magazine I edit carried out during the month of August in concert with Zogby International.

And I want to talk to you today about ordinary Iraqis.

Every politician is acutely aware of the "silent majority" syndrome. The many skilled elected officials in this room know that mass opinion cannot be accurately judged by listening to squeaky wheels alone. One must look beneath the surface, behind the headlines, at the more glacial forces that underlay the roil of daily events.

It is the massive, often silent, middle of Iraqi opinion that I personally am tracking most closely as I observe developments in Iraq . And today I would like to offer my judgment that there is much to be encouraged about in the recent evolution of Iraqi views-particularly the views of the rising Shiite majority.

THE DECEPTIVENESS OF ANECDOTAL TEMPERATURE-TAKINGS

There hasn't been a proper census in Iraq for decades, but according to the best estimates from the CIA, 60-65 percent of all Iraqis are Shiites. Under Saddam Hussein they were horribly treated and politically marginalized, but in any democratic regime the Shia are eventually going to run Iraq . (Very likely in collaboration with the Kurds, who comprise another 20-25 percent of the population and are overtly pro-American.)

The portrayal of the Shiites in the U.S. media has not been very positive. I'll give you a concrete example: Just days after I returned from Iraq this spring, the historic million-person Shiite pilgrimmage to Karbala and Najaf-long suppressed by Saddam Hussein-took place. The imagery of this event presented in U.S. reporting was pretty scary:  Many of you will remember the much-repeated photographs and video of a number of pilgrims cutting themselves with swords as they walked the route, making a bloody mess. The strong impression of the news coverage was that the Shiites were both religious extremists and unfriendly to American ideals and interests.

I had spent most of my time in Iraq among the Shia, and in my experience neither of those negative characterizations were accurate. The Shiites I observed were generally thrilled to be free of Saddam Hussein's yoke, and appreciative of the Americans who had pushed him out.

It so happens that the security for this Shiite pilgrimmage was provided by troopers from the 82nd Airborne whom I know well. Their camp had been right beside the road that the pilgrims trod. So I called up one of the officers on the scene-a smart, frank captain and helicopter pilot named Robin Brown-and asked, "Robin, we're getting all this reporting on fanatical, restive, anti-American Shiites. Did something change dramatically in the few days after I left, or what's going on?"

Somewhat stunned, she reported that the pilgrimmage not only came off without conflict, but had actually turned out to be one of the humanitarian highlights of her time in Iraq . "For three solid days there was this constant river of people," she told me, "and they were singing, honking horns, celebrating. We would watch over the low wall separating our compound from the road, and people would wave to us, laugh, and smile. It was an amazingly festive, peaceful, joyful experience."

HARD EVIDENCE OF IRAQI MODERATION

The media vs. reality disconnect on this important event reinforced my concern that the anecdotal temperature-takings that most Americans were relying on for their assessments of Iraq might be incomplete and misleading. So I went searching for more reliable hard information on the true state of Iraqi opinion. I eventually launched a project to do original survey research for The American Enterprise, the magazine I edit. Working with Zogby, we collected data in four different Iraqi cities during the month of August. It was not easy, but the results are extremely instructive. (The data can be found in graphical form, with extensive commentary, in the December 2003 issue of The American Enterprise magazine, or as full tabulations at www.TAEmag.com/issues/articleID.17694/article_detail.asp.)

I'd like to point out that there have now been four substantial polls conducted in Iraq . In addition to our own The American Enterprise/Zogby poll there was one by Gallup in September, one by the well-established British firm YouGOV, and one by an Iraqi academic. Though these efforts varied widely in methodology and geographical coverage, their results are reassuringly congruent. In all of them, the Iraqi public turns out to be surprisingly optimistic, unambiguously glad to be free of Saddam, and quite willing to have U.S. troops stay in their country for a year or more to help them get launched on a new footing.

For instance: two thirds of Iraqis say getting rid of Saddam has been worth any hardships that have resulted. Fully 61 percent have a favorable view of the Governing Council, and by 50 to 14 percent they say it is doing a better job than it was two months ago. An informal New York Times street poll of Baghdad residents published just this week "showed that about 85 percent felt that safety had increased in the last two months, and 60 percent felt that the Americans were doing a good job." (That, mind you, from residents of the part of the country where the insurgents have been most active. In the vast swathes of the country that have been mostly quiet and stable, security complaints are likely even lower.)

What does all this tell us? It tells us that we are doing much better at winning the hearts and minds of everyday Iraqis than many of us realize.

The survey research we did at The American Enterprise reveals that the Iraqi public is not nearly so fanatical, seething, or disgusted with the United States as local extremists would have us believe. Perhaps most interestingly, our evidence suggests that none of the three major nightmare scenarios for Iraq seem likely to come to pass.

First of all, there will be no Baathist revival-Saddam and his cronies are enormously unpopular in the country. Asked by The American Enterprise whether Baath Party officials who committed crimes should be punished or whether it would be better to put the past behind us, Iraqis opined vehemently (74 percent to 18 percent) that the Baathists should be punished.

The second nightmare scenario is that al-Qaeda-style organizations would proliferate in the new Iraq . But there is little natural base in Iraq for the jihadist message. For instance, al-Jazeera, the Arab TV network that often serves as a mouthpiece for al-Qaeda leaders, is not popular with Iraqis (who resent its apologism for Saddam's regime). We asked Iraqis what they think of Osama bin Laden, and 57 percent of those with an opinion view him unfavorably, with fully 41 percent of them saying their view is VERY unfavorable. As foreign jihadists murder increasing numbers of Iraqi civilians, Iraqi police, and Iraqi popular figures like Ayatollah Hakim, I expect resentment toward al-Qaeda-style groups will grow even wider in the months ahead.

The third nightmare scenario that can, I believe, be dispatched is the idea that an Iranian-style theocracy could take hold in Iraq . Iraqis are quite secular-43 percent told us they had not attended Friday prayer even once within the previous month. And when we asked directly whether they would like to have an Islamic government, Iraqis told us "no" by 60 percent to 33 percent.

Interestingly, on all of these questions the majority Shiites fell on the more moderate side. For instance, they are much less likely than other Iraqis to want a theocratic government, are more favorable toward democracy, are more likely to pick the U.S. as the best model for a government, and they are much more unfavorable toward Osama bin Laden.

RECENT INDICATIONS OF SHIITE MODERATION

I've been further encouraged by very recent signs of maturity and moderation among both the leadership and the rank-and-file of Iraqi Shiites. The first big test came after the murder of Ayatollah Bakr Hakim (and scores of innocent bystanders) outside one of Islam's holiest mosques in Najaf. More than 300,000 mourners attended the funeral in September, which could easily have turned into a rampage against other Iraqis or American troops. Instead, the Shiite faithful showed a willingness to patiently await the official investigation into the crime.

Then last week, American forces and Iraqi police clamped down on Moktada Sadr, a radical Shiite calling for active resistance against Iraq 's existing authorities. Sadr's militiamen had killed Iraqi policemen and American soldiers and forcibly seized government and religious buildings, but coalition forces had moved gingerly against him because of uncertainty as to his popular following. As it turns out, last week's disarming and arrest of Sadr acolytes was actually cheered loudly by other Shiites, who openly repudiated the cleric's radicalism. And the street demonstrations and popular revolt Sadr threatened in response fizzled completely.

The very latest bit of evidence of Shiite moderation and willingness to help remake Iraq was the composed reaction of Mouwafak Rabii, a Shiite member of the Iraqi Governing Council, to the bombing of the Red Cross headquarters in Baghdad . He did not rail, or second-guess, but rather urged the United States to speed up American training of Iraqi police and called on U.S. commanders to unleash their troops for more aggressive action against the insurgents.

THE MANAGEABLE REALITY OF A WAR AGAINST GUERILLA TERRORISTS

The relatively small number of extremists conducting murder and sabotage in the Sunni Triangle have no chance of winning militarily. Much more than outsiders realize, Iraq 's economy and society are beginning to hum. Markets are full, traffic clogs streets, almost all services already exceed their pre-war level, 170 newspapers are being published, schools are well-attended, oil production is approaching 2 million barrels a day, the local democracy councils are functioning surprisingly well and are proving popular. Moreover, the pouncing raids launched in recent months by American soldiers have hurt the guerillas (the bounty paid to induce attacks on U.S. soldiers has reportedly had to be raised from $1,000 to $5,000 to find takers).

Keep in mind, there are now 25,000 soldiers from other countries, plus a healthy 60,000 Iraqi security personnel helping American troops police the country, with many more Iraqi police and soldiers in the pipeline. Even today, just months into a new regime, it is already Iraqis who are bearing most of the casualties involved in guarding and stabilizing the country. Let me note that that will increasingly put the attackers on the wrong side of Iraqi opinion.

The insurgents' only accomplishment is to create chaos. They are strictly a negative force, who can only hope to slow down Iraq 's steady climb toward recovery. Finding that they usually die when they fight American soldiers, they have taken to preying mostly on weak and innocent targets like Red Cross buildings, mosques, and humanitarian agencies. This is a desperate and retrograde military strategy that will win them no friends.

The insurgents have no platform, no winning message, no identifiable leaders. There is no evidence that they represent a popular movement, or that they enjoy any widespread support. They instead, simply well armed and comparatively wealthy fringe fanatics. Many of them are foreign, All of them are leftovers of old Arab power blocs. They are feared by many Iraqis, but not broadly respected, trusted, or liked.

In short, they are political criminals. Everyday Iraqis remember 1991, when America disappeared before the job was done, and many citizens remain wary about acting against political criminals in ways that could put their own lives at risk. But I believe that, increasingly, the guerillas will find it hard to swim and hide among the Iraqi public.

ON THE SIDE OF THE ANGELS

The best way to understand our current position in Iraq may be as follows. A psychological contest is under way for Iraqi loyalties. On one side are remnants of an unpopular regime, reinforced by unpopular foreigners, who merely wreck and kill in ugly ways, especially at religious and humanitarian sites, frequently on holy days, with most of the victims being innocent Iraqis.

On the other side are American forces who have, on the whole, been quite gentle and forbearing. (If anything, everyday Iraqis are now more likely to criticize the Americans for being insufficiently ruthless in dealing with the insurgents.) And any day now, we hope, those American forces will get a multi-billion dollar infusion of funds-thanks to the U.S. Congress and some of our overseas allies-which will allow them to demonstrate to the Iraqis even more clearly who is on the side of progress, modernity, prosperity, and human decency. And you know what? That's a pretty good position from which to prosecute a war against minority guerillas.

No guerilla war is easy. We will need to strike hard, and to spend money. Improving our intelligence, and training more and more Iraqi compatriots who will fight next to us, and increasingly instead of us, should be high priorities. But there is no Ho Chi Minh trail pumping fresh poison into Iraq, and with each passing season there will be fewer weapons in the hands of fewer guerillas with less and less money to spend. 

And, meanwhile, new economic and political freedoms will be unfolding across the countryside-cell phones today, open elections tomorrow. These innovations will cumulatively amount to a social, economic, and political revolution, and make the blood-feuding insurgents look more unattractive to normal Iraqis with each passing week.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT

The one factor that could derail Iraq 's gradual rise would be American panic. The Baghdad bombers are not so much trying to influence Iraqis as to cow the U.S. public and stampede our leaders. If we will be long-sighted and steely, we will realize that there is no reason for alarm. The number of our soldiers killed in combat since U.S. forces swept across Iraq in May is less than the number of police officers killed in the U.S. this year guarding our own streets. All of those men are heroes to their country, but their numbers are blessedly miniscule compared to almost any earlier war, never mind one of this historical significance.

I can tell you the view on this subject of the American soldiers in Iraq whom I know well. They believe this job needs to be finished bravely and without waffling. As one fighter in the 82nd Airborne wrote me this very week:  "We are doing great work. We must show the world that we have the stomach for the ugly realities of a righteous war. I believe with all my heart that this effort is critical to the survival of this region, the position of the U.S. as a world leader, and the spirit of our fighting forces in the future. The only way we can lose this war is if we lose our resolve. SPC Babin, who remains hospitalized with brain and internal damage, SPC Bermanis, who has lost three limbs, or SPC Ross, who lost his eyesight and leg saving a young Iraqi, would never forgive us for giving anything less than our all from now on."

My message today is simple: Iraq is not a bottomless cesspool. It is a manageable challenge. The mass of citizens living along the Tigris-Euphrates valley show clear signs that they will make sensible use of their new freedom if we will help them by gradually eliminating the small number of militants conducting murder and sabotage in their midst. In one of the most benighted parts of the globe we are making headway. If we will persevere, future generations will marvel at the American soldiers and political leaders who showed the wit and stamina to turn around a part of the world that has, for more than a generation up until now, been little more than a source of heartbreak.

_______

About the Author: Karl Zinsmeister is Editor-in-Chief of The American Enterprise, a national magazine of politics, business and culture. His book Boots on the Ground: A Month with the 82nd Airborne in the Battle for Iraq, based on his experiences as an embedded journalist during the second Iraq war, has just been published by St. Martin 's Press. Zinsmeister is also the J. B. Fuqua Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a major Washington , D.C. research institute. His research and writing have covered a wide range of topics, ranging from demographics and social and cultural trends to defense, business, and economics. He has been published in many places including The American Enterprise, The Atlantic Monthly, Reader's Digest, The Wilson Quarterly, The Public Interest, National Review, and The Times Literary Supplement, as well as national newspapers like the Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune, Washington Post, and Christian Science Monitor. Zinsmeister is a graduate of Yale University and did further studies at Trinity College Dublin in Ireland . During college he also won national rowing championships in both the U.S. and Ireland . He was an assistant to U.S. Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, has been an advisor to many research and policy groups, and has testified before Congressional committees and Presidential commissions numerous times. He originated a weekly radio commentary on social and economic trends syndicated nationally to 100 stations, and has written newspaper columns for the United Feature Syndicate. He has appeared often on television and radio programs including CNN's Crossfire, Hardball with Chris Matthews, ABC's Politically Incorrect, C-SPAN's Washington Journal, PBS's Think Tank, BBC World Service, and many others. His work has won several national prizes, and his writing has been published abroad in Japanese, German, Spanish, French, Arabic, Swedish, Polish, Chinese and other languages. A sixth generation resident of his home region, Zinsmeister lives with his wife and three children in rural central New York .

Appendix 1:

Published in the October 20, 2003 edition of the Christian Science Monitor

Progress exceeds prognostication in Iraq

There is basic peace, economic bubbling, and majority Iraqi support for the path the US has cleared
By Karl Zinsmeister

FORT BRAGG , N.C. - 'This may not be Vietnam , but boy, it sure smells like it," said Sen. Tom Harkin recently. The Iowa Democrat is but one of a host of critics in Washington politics and the media who claim that US troops and administrators are "bogged down" in Iraq.

Having covered the war as an embedded reporter, having conducted the first national poll of the Iraqi people (in concert with Zogby International), and having remained in close touch with the military men and women who are temporarily the princes running the land of the Tigris and Euphrates, I believe this gloomy view is incomplete and inaccurate.

Let's start by remembering the traumas that never befell us in Iraq .

Not only was the war itself vastly less bloody and difficult than some predicted, but its aftermath has also been quieter. We were told by prewar prognosticators to expect a refugee flood, a food crisis, destruction of the oil fields, and public-health disasters. We were warned that Iraq 's multifarious ethnic and religious groups would be at one another's throats. Environmental catastrophes, chemical poisonings, and dam breaks were predicted. It was said Turkey might occupy the north, that Israel could strike from the south, that the Arab "street" was likely to resist.

None of these things happened. Nor have other predicted troubles materialized. When 300,000 mourners gathered for the funeral of assassinated Shiite spiritual leader Bakr al Hakim, they didn't rampage, or call for vengeance against Sunnis, or lash out against the US authorities. They and their leaders showed the political maturity to let the official investigation into the leader's murder proceed.

Whatever the setbacks, we must remember that much of this war has been a case of the dog that didn't bark.

That is not to whitewash the fact that painful low-intensity conflict is still smoldering, producing casualties equivalent to the hot-war phase.

The man I photographed in combat for the cover of my new book about the Iraq war, an 82nd Airborne Ranger named Sean Shields, has been bombed in his Humvee twice in a month. Localized resistance in the Sunni triangle is real. But Sean isn't discouraged: He believes he's doing historic work to stabilize one of the most dangerous spots on our planet. He and other soldiers I hear from believe they're making great progress in setting Iraq on the path of a more normal, decent nation.

Here are some signs they're right:

. Stores are bustling, traffic is busy, and most services have now exceeded their prewar levels. A new currency went into circulation last week.

. Large cities, home to millions - like Basra, Mosul, and Kirkuk - and vast swaths of countryside in the north and south, are stable, basically peaceful, beginning to bubble economically, and grateful to coalition forces who've set them on a new path.

. More than 170 newspapers are being published in Iraq , and broadcast media proliferate.

. The Iraqi Governing Council has been well received by the country's many factions and ethno-religious groups. Sixty-one percent of Iraqis polled by Gallup in September view the council favorably. And by 50 to 14 percent they say it is doing a better, rather than worse, job than it was two months ago.

. For the first time, localities have their own town councils. A working court system has been set up. And a constitution is being hashed out.

. In addition to the 140,000 US troops providing security, there are about 25,000 soldiers from other countries, and 60,000 Iraqi police and guards on the job - with many thousands more in the training pipeline.

. Nearly all schools and universities are open; hundreds have been rehabbed into their best shape in years by soldiers.

. Iraq 's interim economic leaders recently committed the country to a wide-open, investment-friendly market economy. The prosperity and global connectivity this should bring will be the ultimate guarantee of Iraq 's modernity and moderation.

. Oil production has passed 1 million barrelsper day, and is heading toward 2 million.

. Iraqi public opinion is more moderate than suggested by the anecdotal temperature-takings in press reports. Four entirely different polls have been conducted in Iraq , and their remarkably congruent results show that the majority of Iraqis are optimistic about their future, and believe ousting Saddam Hussein was worth any hardships that have resulted.

The four-city survey in August by The American Enterprise, a magazine I edit, suggests that the three nightmare scenarios for Iraq - a Baathist revival, an Iran-style theocracy, and a swing toward Al Qaeda - are very unlikely, given current Iraqi views. And contrary to media reports of boiling public resentment, all of these polls show that two-thirds of Iraqis want US troops to stay for at least another year.

. Meanwhile, the pouncing raids that US forces initiated two months ago have hurt the guerrillas. More than 1,000 fighters have been arrested and many others killed. The bounty paid by ex-Baathists toinduce attacks on American soldiers has had to be increased from $1,000 to $5,000 to find takers.

. Most critically, the US is now on offense, rather than defense, in the war on terror. With a shock being applied to the seedbeds of Middle Eastern violence, the US homeland has been blessedly quiet for two years.

My friend Christopher Hitchens - who like me, numerous congressmen, and other recent visitors to Iraq witnessed what he calls "ecstatic displays" toward Americans by grateful Iraqis - characterizes what is taking place in Iraq today as "a social and political revolution."

That's no overstatement. Maj. Pete Wilhelm, with the 82nd Airborne in Baghdad , recently described how US forces are nurturing the first shoots of democracy in the Fertile Crescent : "We set up a Neighborhood Advisory Council representative of each neighborhood, and they voted on a leader who attends the city advisory council. Early on, the meetings would last four hours, and it would seem as though no progress was being made. The whole concept of a 'vote' came hard and slow. We have gradually transitioned the burden of the agenda into the hands of the representatives, renovated the meeting hall with AC, and pushed the autopilot button. The meetings are down to an hour and a half, and we just keep the ball in play and act as referees. We are making great strides at grass-roots democracy."

After a recent trip to the country, Mr. Hitchens agrees, saying, "I saw persuasive evidence of the unleashing of real politics in Iraq , and of the highly positive effect of same."

All of this has been accomplished in less than six months from the fall of Baghdad . Keep in mind that Germany - a much more advanced nation that already had a democratic tradition - didn't hold elections until four years after World War II ended. Gen. Douglas MacArthur progressed less rapidly in Japan .

Certainly, there remains an enormous amount to fix in Iraq . But there is something unseemly about the impatience of today's pundits, their insistence on instant recovery, and what my colleague Michael Barone calls the media's "zero defect standard."

US soldiers and administrators are turning a tide of history and culture in the Middle East . If Americans show some patience, they'll gaze upon many heartening transformations in Iraq a few months and years from now.

. Karl Zinsmeister, editor in chief of The American Enterprise magazine, is the author of the new book, Boots on the Ground: A Month with the 82nd Airborne in the Battle for Iraq .

Appendix 2:

Published in the Wall Street Journal, Wednesday September 10, 2003 .  

WHAT IRAQIS REALLY THINK
By Karl Zinsmeister

Since we became responsible for setting a new course in Iraq after removing Saddam Hussein in April (and, actually, even before then), America has been hobbled in setting its policies toward Iraq by not knowing much about what everyday Iraqis really think. Are they on the side of the radical Islamists? What kind of government would they like for themselves? What is their attitude toward the U.S. ? Do the Shiites hate us or love us? Could Iraq become another Iran under the ayatollahs? Are the people in the Sunni triangle the real problem?

Up to now we've only been able to guess. We've relied on anecdotal temperature-takings of the Iraqi public, and have particularly been at the mercy of images presented to us by the press. We all know that journalists have a bad news bias (10,000 schools being rehabbed is not news, one school blowing up is a weeklong feeding frenzy). And some of us who have spent time recently in Iraq (I was an embedded reporter during the war this spring) have been puzzled by the post-war news since then. The imagery being transmitted by the media this summer was gloomier than our own experiences in country seemed to merit, and more negative than what many individuals involved in reconstructing the nation have been showing and telling us since.

Well, finally we have some evidence as to where the truth may lie.

Working with Zogby International survey researchers, The American Enterprise magazine, which I edit, has just conducted the first scientific poll of the Iraqi public. Given the state of the country, this was not easy. Security problems delayed our intrepid fieldworkers several times. We labored at careful translations, regional samplings, and survey methods to make sure our results would accurately reflect the views of Iraq 's multifarious, long-suffering people. We consulted with Eastern European pollsters about the best methods for eliciting honest answers from people long conditioned to repressing their true sentiments.

Conducted in August, our survey was necessarily limited in scope, but it reflects a nationally representative sample of Iraqi views, as captured in four disparate cities: Basra (Iraq's second largest, home to 1.7 million people, in the far south), Mosel (third largest, far north), Kirkuk (Kurdish-influenced oil city, fourth largest), and Ramadi (a resistance hotbed in the Sunni triangle). The results show that the Iraq public is more sensible, stable, and moderate than commonly portrayed, that the country is not so fanatical, seething, or disgusted with the United States after all.

* Iraqis are optimistic. Seven out of ten say they expect both their country and their personal lives will be better five years from now. On both fronts, 32 percent say things will become MUCH better.

* The toughest part of reconstructing their nation, Iraqis say by three to one, will be politics, not economics. They are nervous about democracy. Asked which is closer to their own view: "Democracy can work well in Iraq ," or "Democracy is a Western way of doing things," five out of ten said democracy is Western and won't work in Iraq . One out of ten weren't sure. And four out of ten said democracy can work in Iraq .

There were interesting divergences. Sunnis were negative on democracy by more than 2:1, but, critically, the majority Shiites were as likely to say democracy would work for Iraqis as not. People age 18-29 are much more rosy about democracy than other Iraqis, and women are significantly more positive than men.

* Asked to name one country they would most like Iraq to model its new government on, after being offered five possibilities-neighbor and fellow Baathist republic Syria, neighbor and Islamic monarchy Saudi Arabia, neighbor and Islamist republic Iran, Arab lodestar Egypt, or the U.S.-the most popular model by far was the U.S. The U.S. was preferred as a model by 37 percent of Iraqis selecting from those five-more than neighboring Syria plus neighboring Iran plus Egypt , all put together. Saudi Arabia was in second place at 28 percent.

Again, there were important demographic splits. Younger adults are especially favorable toward the U.S. , and Shiites are more admiring than Sunnis. Interestingly, Iraqi Shiites, who are co-religionists with Iranians, do not admire Iran 's Islamist government; the U.S. is six times more popular with them as a model for governance.

* Our interviewers inquired whether Iraq should have an Islamic government, or instead let all people practice their own religion. Only 33 percent want an Islamic government, a solid 60 percent say no. A vital detail: Shiites (whom Western reporters frequently portray as self-flagellating ayatollah-maniacs-in-waiting) are least receptive to the idea of an Islamic government, saying "No" by 66 to 27 percent. It is only among the minority Sunnis that there is interest in a religious state (they are split evenly on the question).

* Perhaps the strongest indication that an Islamic government won't be part of Iraq 's future: The nation is thoroughly secularized. We asked how often our respondents had attended the Friday prayer over the previous month. Fully 43 percent said "Never." It's time to scratch Khomeini II from the Iraq critics' list of morbid fears.

* You can also cross out Osama II. Fifty-seven percent of Iraqis with an opinion have an unfavorable view of Osama bin Laden-with 41 percent of them saying it is a VERY unfavorable view. (Women are especially down on him.) Except in the Sunni triangle (where the limited support that exists for bin Laden is heavily concentrated), negative views of the al-Qaeda boss are actually quite lopsided in all parts of the country. And those opinions were collected before Iraqi police announced it was al-Qaeda members who killed scores of worshippers with a truck bomb in Najaf. There will be no safehouses for bin Laden in Iraq in the future.

* And, finally, you can write off the possibility of a Baath revival. We asked "Should Baath Party leaders who committed crimes in the past be punished, or should past actions be put behind us?" A thoroughly disgusted and unforgiving Iraqi public stated by 74% to 18% that Saddam's henchmen should be punished.

*   *   *

This new evidence on Iraqi opinion suggests the country is manageable. If the small number of militants conducting sabotage and murder inside the country can gradually be dispatched to paradise by American troopers (this is happening as steady progress is made in stage two of the Iraq war), then the mass of citizens living along the Tigris-Euphrates Valley are likely to make reasonably sensible use of their new freedom. "We will not forget it was the U.S. soldiers who liberated us from Saddam," said Abid Ali, an auto repair shop owner in Sadr City last month.

None of this is to suggest that the task ahead for America will be simple. Inchoate anxiety toward the U.S. showed up when we asked Iraqis whether they thought the U.S. would help or hurt Iraq over a five-year period. By 50% to 36% they chose hurt over help.

This is fairly understandable; Iraqis have just lived through a war where Americans were (necessarily) flinging most of the ammunition. These experiences may explain why Iraqi women (who are more anti-military in all cultures) show up in our data as especially wary of the U.S. right now. War is never pleasant, though U.S. forces made heroic efforts to spare innocents in this one-as I illustrate with vivid first-hand examples in my just-published book about the battles.

Evidence of the comparative gentleness of this war can be seen in our poll. Less than 30 percent of our sample of Iraqis knew or heard of anyone killed in the spring fighting. Meanwhile, fully HALF knew some family member, neighbor, or friend who had been killed by Iraqi security forces during the years Saddam held power.

Perhaps the ultimate indication of how comfortable Iraqis are with America 's aims in their region came when we asked how long they would like to see American and British forces remain in their country: Six months? One year? Two years or more? Two thirds of those with an opinion urged that the coalition troops should stick around for at least another year or more.

We're making headway in a benighted part of the world, America . Hang in there.

Karl Zinsmeister is editor in chief of The American Enterprise, and author of Boots on the Ground: A Month with the 82nd Airborne in the Battle for Iraq ( St. Martin 's Press), the first book published by one of the war's embedded journalists.

Appendix 3:

The American Enterprise/Zogby poll results