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« Switzerland's Security 2024 »: The Federal Intelligence Service publishes its latest situation report

Swiss Government

Berne, 22.10.2024 - Switzerland's security environment continues to deteriorate from year to year. Of the strategic patterns currently emerging, the closer military cooperation between a group of Eurasian autocracies is one of the most concerning. The Federal Intelligence Service's (FIS) abilities to anticipate, identify and assess in time threats and developments that are of strategic importance to Switzerland are crucial for taking preventive measures. The latest FIS situation report presents the main developments in intelligence over the past year.

We are living through a dangerous and volatile period of transition to a new order of global power relations. How long this will last is uncertain. In view of the heavily polarised environment with multiple and simultaneous crises as well as armed conflicts in Europe and on its periphery, Switzerland is significantly less secure than it was just a few years ago. Europe finds itself in a challenging position: the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine is making it painfully clear how dependent Europe is on the USA for its security.

There is also growing military cooperation between a group of Eurasian autocracies - China, Russia, North Korea and Iran - and this is having an impact on regional wars and crises. These states want to reduce the USA's influence and are opposed to Western ideas of political order. They are seeking to change the status quo in their respective regions and to establish their own spheres of influence. China is striving to become a global power by the middle of the century. Of the strategic patterns currently emerging, the closer military collaboration between these states is one of the most concerning. In the months to come, several conflicts and crises will therefore present a particular challenge to the Western states. The dominant Western power, the USA, will be preoccupied domestically with the 2024 presidential election campaign and a new administration.

War of attrition and risk of escalation

Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has turned into a war of attrition with no end in sight. Russia remains firmly committed to continuing the war, and its military potential will expand further during the coming months. For the USA and in Europe, on the other hand, it has become politically more difficult to provide the vital aid needed by Ukraine. This means that time is currently on Russia's side.

The major terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas and the resulting war in Gaza are sending shock waves through the Middle East. The clashes between Israel and the so-called "Axis of Resistance" have been gradually increasing in intensity since October 2023. In mid-September 2024, Israel stepped up the fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon, thereby challenging Iran and its regional strategy.

Illegal intelligence: undercover bases

The greatest espionage threat to Switzerland currently comes from the Russian intelligence services. The threat to Switzerland from the Chinese intelligence services is also high. Numerous services maintain covert bases in Switzerland, known as residencies. These usually operate out of diplomatic missions.

The war against Ukraine and the escalating power political confrontation worldwide have increased the hybrid threat to countries including Switzerland, in particular from Russian influence activities. As far as the issue of proliferation is concerned, Russia's attempt to circumvent Western sanctions via private companies in third countries poses a major challenge to Swiss export controls on dual-use goods subject to licence.

Terrorism: elevated threat

The terrorist threat in Switzerland remains elevated and in 2024 became even more pronounced. It is still substantially shaped by jihad-inspired individuals Since the beginning of 2024, the FIS has recorded increasing international activity by jihadist actors. This has been reflected, for example, in the spike in the number of police interventions in Europe due to suspected terrorism. Jewish and Israeli interests will remain at risk, in Switzerland as elsewhere.

Violent right-wing and left-wing extremist groups are continuing their activities as normal. The threat posed by both violent right-wing and violent left-wing extremism has stabilised at a heightened level.

In the case of jihadism in particular, but also in the case of violent right-wing extremism, an increase in the radicalisation of minors in Switzerland can be seen. This takes place online and happens very rapidly, and can even lead to the perpetration of terrorist attacks.

Situation Report of the Federal Intelligence Service « Switzerland's Security 2024 » (PDF, 8 MB)