Russia's 2016 Election Meddling More Comprehensive Than Realized
By Jeff Seldin December 17, 2018
Two new reports on Russia's efforts to interfere in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections are shedding more light on the size and scope of the campaign, showing it was far more extensive and thorough than previously understood.
The reports also support conclusions by the U.S. intelligence community – and published in an unclassified January 2017 report – that the goal of all of Russia's meddling in the months leading up to the 2016 elections was to get their preferred candidate elected president of the United States.
"What is clear is that all of the messaging clearly sought to benefit the Republican Party and specifically Donald Trump," according to the report by Oxford University's Computational Propaganda Project and network analysis firm Graphika.
The findings, as first reported by the Washington Post, said Russians working for a group called the Internet Research Agency (IRA) began experimenting with social media to influence local elections in 2009 and expanded its operations to U.S. elections in 2013 using Twitter.
It gradually added other popular social media sites to its campaign, including YouTube, Facebook and Instagram, using race and social issues such as gun rights, immigration and police brutality to sow division and discontent.
"Conservative and right-wing voters were actively encouraged to get behind Trump's campaign," according to the report by Oxford and Graphika. "Other voters were encouraged to boycott the election, abstain from voting for [Hillary] Clinton, or to spread cynicism about participating in the election in general."
Russia's IRA activity also sought out African-American voters in particular with advertising on Facebook and Instagram and with video content on YouTube.
"Most of the interest-based targeting focused on African-American communities and interests," the second report by the cybersecurity firm New Knowledge showed.
"Messaging to African-Americans sought to divert their political energy away from established political institutions by preying on anger with structural inequalities faced by African-Americans, including police violence, poverty and disproportionate levels of incarceration," the Oxford University-Graphika report added. "These campaigns pushed a message that the best way to advance the cause of the African-American community was to boycott the election and focus on other issues instead."
Other groups such as liberals, women, Muslims, Latinos and veterans were also targeted with similar messages either appealing to their politics or trying to discourage them from voting.
"This newly released data demonstrates how aggressively Russia sought to divide Americans by race, religion and ideology, and how the IRA actively worked to erode trust in our democratic institutions. Most troublingly, it shows that these activities have not stopped," Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr, a Republican, said in a statement Monday.
"This should stand as a wake-up call," added Senate Intelligence Committee vice chair, Democrat Mark Warner, who has been critical of social media companies and the way they have handled Russia's online influence campaigns.
"It is time to get serious in addressing this challenge," Warner said. "That is going to require some much-needed and long-overdue guardrails when it comes to social media."
The Oxford-Graphika report said it is clear the response by social media companies has been lacking.
"We clearly observe a belated and uncoordinated response from the platforms that provided the data," the report said. "In some cases, activity on one platform was detected and suspended months before similar action was taken against related activity on another platform."
In a statement Monday, Facebook said it continues to "fully cooperate with officials investigating the IRA's activity on Facebook and Instagram around the 2016 election."
"We've made progress in helping prevent interference on our platforms during elections, strengthened our policies against voter suppression ahead of the 2018 midterms, and funded independent research on the impact of social media on democracy," the statement said, adding the company believes Congress and intelligence officials "are best placed to use the information we and others provide."
In a statement of its own, Twitter said: "Our singular focus is to improve the health of the public conversation on our platform. We've made significant strides since 2016 to counter manipulation of our service, including our release of additional data in October related to previously disclosed activities to enable further independent academic research and investigation."
The reports, though, indicate the measures that have been taken may not be enough, as Russia and others continue to make use of social media platforms.
The Oxford-Graphika report said Russia's use of social media did not peak until after the election, with the IRA buying the most ad volume on Facebook in April 2017, shortly after the U.S. airstrikes against chemical weapon sites in Syria.
And U.S. intelligence and military officials have told VOA that Russia continued to target segments of U.S. society, including ongoing efforts to influence U.S. military personnel and their families in the run-up to the 2018 midterm elections.
The United States has already leveled criminal charges against IRA for interfering in the 2016 campaign.
Current and former intelligence officials also warn that it would be a mistake to focus only on Russia's use of social media, pointing to last week's guilty plea by Russian spy Maria Butina, who admitted to using the National Rifle Association to get close to key conservative politicians.
"It illustrates … the astute understanding the Russians have of our political ecosystem," James Clapper, former director of National Intelligence, told VOA.
Special Counsel Robert Mueller is investigating whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to influence the 2016 election and whether the president has tried to obstruct justice by trying to undermine the probe.
Trump denies there was any collusion and calls the Mueller probe a "witch hunt."
|Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list|