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Backgrounder: Intelligence on Iran Still Lacking

Council on Foreign Relations

Author: Lionel Beehner, Staff Writer
February 27, 2007

Introduction

In recent months, some U.S. analysts and policymakers have raised doubts about the quality and credibility of American intelligence on Iran. With few actual spies on the ground in Iran and no consular presence in Tehran, not to mention the United States’ limited intelligence gleaned from satellite imagery and data, some question the reliability of evidence regarding Iran’s involvement in Iraq and its uranium-enrichment program. Making matters worse, Tehran has restricted access to some international inspectors there to observe its enrichment activities. Much like the run-up to the war in Iraq, U.S. officials must rely on intelligence from American allies in the region, Iranian exiles and political groups with dubious intentions, and a Dubai-based “listening post” aimed at collecting information from Iranians doing business in the Gulf. Hovering above all these challenges, of course, are credibility problems stemming from the mishandling of intelligence before the war in Iraq.

Sources of U.S. Intelligence on Iran

Suspicions of Tehran’s nuclear intentions and its cross-border actions in Iraq prompted the United States to step up its efforts to gather intelligence on Iran. In northern Iraq, U.S. forces recently confiscated documents and detained Iranian operatives. They subsequently presented evidence that Iran’s Qods Force—an elite component of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards—had supplied Iraqi militias with lethal roadside bombs for use against American forces. The munitions include mortars, rocket-propelled grenades, and armor-piercing explosive devices, called explosively formed penetrators (EFPs), all bearing serial numbers that U.S. officials claim link them to Tehran. Iranian officials deny the accusations.

The United States has also begun monitoring Iran from Dubai. About a half dozen U.S. State Department officials have opened a diplomatic mission there to collect information from Iranians in the region.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2007 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.