Intelligence

DATE=9-30-03

TYPE=INTERVIEW

NUMBER=3-799

TITLE=HESS-CIA

BYLINE=DAVID BORGIDA

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

INTRODUCTION

Mr. Stephen Hess, a Senior Fellow at the Governance Studies Program of the Brookings Institution, will discuss the latest developments surrounding the revelation of the identity of a CIA agent to the press by White House sources.

MR. BORGIDA

And now joining us, from the Brookings Institution, political analyst Stephen Hess. Thank you for joining us.

On the political Washington Richter scale, Mr. Hess, where do you rate this on a scale of 1 to 10 in terms of its danger to the White House perhaps or its lasting power in the minds of the American public?

MR. HESS

It's a serious problem. And how much danger there is politically or otherwise will depend on how the President handles it. So far, on day one, he's done the right thing. That is, the Justice Department is having a criminal investigation. The President has said that it's a serious thing. The President's counsel has made sure that everybody at the White House is keeping their papers, that nothing is being destroyed.

But these things have a way of coming unraveled. Rumors get into it and, before you know it, the story is not who leaked it but cover-up. So if this President is wise, based on how past presidents have had trouble with stories like this, he will be very tough, he will try to find the culprit very quickly, and he will fire him.

Because this is in fact more serious than many of the so-called comparable scandals, the ones that always end in "gate," like Watergate or White Watergate, because it does involve national security. It does involve the possible loss of life of an American agent or the agent's contacts, as well as information that may be valuable for the country's security. So I don't think anyone should be taking this lightly or try and sweep it under the rug.

MR. BORGIDA

Let's talk a moment about the politics of it. We are, as we begin a political campaign, in the middle of the partisanship that is associated with that sort of thing. If this had occurred a year or two years ago, would we be seeing it on the front pages do you think, or is it still the kind of story that we would be seeing no matter what month and what year?

MR. HESS

Well, there's no question that we're about to go into a presidential election year. There are 10 people contending for the Democratic nomination to oppose George W. Bush. And you can be quite sure that all of those 10 people will be trying to make headlines on this story, which of course they should. It's the role of the opposition party to oppose. And we have the nature of the media, which has now changed over the years, so that we have 24 hours of some television stations that do nothing but opinionating. We have talk radio that's a very powerful force in the United States.

So this is a very good story. That is, it's interesting, maybe even entertaining, but it's also important. So between an opposition party and an objective and vigorous media, you can be sure that this story isn't going to just disappear from the scene.

MR. BORGIDA

Now, we've been told that this is the kind of investigation that might last many, many months. And you and I have watched and covered these scandals for many years in this city. And I think it is possible -- and we're entering the realm of a bit of speculation now -- but if someone were to come forward in the White House or in the administration and take one for the President as it were, it could end the bleeding. And that has happened in the past. Would you see that kind of scenario, Mr. Hess?

MR. HESS

I think that would be the ideal scenario for George W. Bush. George W. Bush has shown in the past -- for instance last December when he fired his Secretary of the Treasury and his Chief Economic Advisor -- that he can be very tough. And if indeed they within the White House today have figured out who the culprit is, the very best thing for the nation and for this administration would be to make this known and cut this short.

Once you get into a question like a special counsel or, as it used to be, an independent counsel, which you heard the Senator call for, you've started a process that's very long and very expensive. And once it starts, there are very few people who necessarily want to stop it. So you're better off not to go down that route if you're serious about finding the perpetrator.

MR. BORGIDA

If I could just shift a bit. We've talked about the presidential election campaign. And while we've got you here we thought we'd take advantage of it and make you sit with us for a couple of more minutes and ask you a little bit about the presidential campaign. Because this is one issue that we may see possibly hurt the President in his poll numbers. It may not. That remains to be seen.

MR. HESS

Yes.

MR. BORGIDA

But certainly Democrats are going to make it an issue, among others. And one of the other issues is the state of play in Iraq. How would you explain President Bush's poll numbers at the moment, which are going down and showing him in a big fight with perhaps Wesley Clark on the Democratic side or John Kerry or Howard Dean?

MR. HESS

Yes, that's right, his poll numbers are going down. That's not totally surprising. For instance, Bill Clinton at this stage of his presidency, Ronald Reagan at this stage of his presidency, both had lower poll ratings that would have shown in fact that they would have lost the election. Both of them won handily.

So it only shows that a year before an election an awful lot can happen. Nevertheless, as the 2000 election showed between Bush and Gore, we're in a 50/50 country. And this will be a hard-fought election anyway.

I should make it clear, particularly to an audience that's not in the United States, that although Iraq is terribly important and very much on the front page of our papers, the odds are still great that this is an election that's going to be won or lost on the state of the economy.

In part, the President's poll numbers are going down because it has been a strange economic situation. It has been called a jobless recovery. The economists will tell you that things are doing very well, but at the same time there are still an awful lot of Americans who are unemployed. And that means there are a lot of other Americans who are anxious about possibly becoming unemployed. That's the serious political consequences or the serious threat to the President's reelection I think at this point.

MR. BORGIDA

And which of the Democrats, as we wind up this segment, Mr. Hess, in your view present the strongest opposition to the President? Conventional wisdom, before you said that the economy would prevail, would be that Mr. Clark, who has a strong military background, might present the toughest opposition to President Bush. But certainly he, Mr. Clark, is weakest on domestic issues, wouldn't you think?

MR. HESS

Well, this will all be proven out at the ballot box. In January, we start this long, tedious process of primary elections. General Clark is just barely in the race, not even two weeks. He's gotten a great boost on name recognition of course. And it's very helpful to the Democrats that they have a four-star general among their candidates, because national defense tends to be their weak suit.

On the other hand, Howard Dean, the former Governor of Vermont, has done an incredible job in raising money. Money is sort of the surrogate for votes when there's no elections being held, so that the year before the primary the candidates are all going out and raising money for their campaigns. And Dean has done a superb job at that.

But there are a half a dozen candidates who are bunched together and who all have extremely good resumes. They've been in Congress, they've been in the Senate, they've been in the House of Representatives, for a very long time, and they're very experienced people. And so the Democrats will have a true contender.

But the important thing is, when an incumbent is running for reelection, that that is what the election is all about. If people are not satisfied with George W. Bush, he's defeated. If they're satisfied with him, he's elected -- almost without regard to whether the candidate might be named Howard Dean or Wesley Clark or John Kerry or Dick Gephardt or Joe Lieberman.

MR. BORGIDA

Well, your name is Stephen Hess. I'm David Borgida. We thank you for your thoughts on the election and this current controversy prevailing in Washington. Stephen Hess of the Brookings Institution.

(End of interview.)

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