DATE=4/8/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=TERRORISM OUTLOOK
NUMBER=5-46102
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Terrorism is clearly a threat, but can the
threat be exaggerated? At a recent Washington
conference, two analysts said it can be and that this
is exactly what the terrorists want. Their goal is to
terrorize. Ours, say the analysts, is not to let them
get away with it. V-O-A's Ed Warner reports.
TEXT: Terrorist groups present more of a challenge
than ever. Those that have survived have profited
from the experience. They are better financed and
organized, sometimes equipped with computers, internet
web sites and television stations. They have become
skilled propagandists, matching word for word the
governments they oppose.
That is terrorism today, said Bruce Hoffman, director
of Rand, a leading research organization, who was
speaking at a conference held by the Center for
Nonproliferation Studies in Washington.
But he added that paradoxically, terrorism appears to
be in decline. Counter-terrorism has been effective,
he said, and at least for the time being, terrorists
have chosen not to act. Usually rational, their aim
is to achieve a political purpose. But for the
moment, they do not seem to have one in mind.
Yet there are more fears of terrorism than ever
before, says Mr. Hoffman, and particularly of the use
of weapons of mass destruction -- nuclear, chemical,
biological.
Why this discrepancy? asks Mr. Hoffman:
/// Hoffman Act ///
One has to ask whether the lull in conventional
terrorism does not produce a preoccupation or a
fascination with extreme forms of hypothetical
terrorism. Terrorism always sells news; it is
good media copy. When the news is slow for many
media outlets, that can be manipulated by both
terrorists and by governments. This is a way to
fill the void.
/// End Act ///
Exaggerating the terrorist threat may play into the
terrorists' hands, says Mr. Hoffman. After all, their
goal is to instill fear. Why make it easy for them by
going along with this?
/// Hoffman Act ///
If they are incapable of carrying out terrorist
attacks at this time, if they have been stymied
by the security forces, thwarted by good
intelligence -- as I would argue Osama Bin Laden
has been for the past 20 months -- would it not
benefit them to play the W-M-D [EDS: weapons of
mass destruction] card, to make all sorts of
utterances or whispers about using biological or
chemical terrorism as a means to get into the
press, which they have repeatedly succeeded in
doing? In other words, they are able to attract
attention to themselves and their causes to
inflate their own power.
/// End Act ///
We should not confuse rhetoric with reality, says Mr.
Hoffman, nor assume total victory is possible. While
the fight against terrorism can never be relaxed, it
also can never be won. No society -- not even a harsh
totalitarian one -- can completely eliminate the
threat. Unrealistic expectations can lead to military
actions that gain more support for the terrorists.
Terrorists blend into the larger society, said Magnus
Ranstorp, deputy director of the Study of Terrorism
and Political Violence at the University of St.
Andrews in Scotland. He cited the example of Hamas,
the hard-line Palestinian group opposed to the peace
process.
/// Ranstorp Act ///
I usually try to dispel the myth that Hamas is
some dark creature hanging in a corner plotting
and planning to strike at every time. Hamas
cuts horizontally and vertically through
Palestinian society. It is part of Palestinian
society. The major activity Hamas is engaged in
is on the social and political front. And
sometimes of course, they do engage in violence
-- terrorist activity.
/// End Act ///
Mr. Ranstorp noted that a top official in the
Palestinian Authority has a brother who is a leading
member of Hamas.
He added that the Palestinian Authority has a firm
grip on Hamas and can unleash it if peace talks with
Israel fail. Then terrorism once again would serve a
clear political purpose. (signed)
NEB/EW/JP
08-Apr-2000 11:15 AM EDT (08-Apr-2000 1515 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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