DATE=1/5/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=TERRORISM OUTLOOK
NUMBER=5-45178
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Despite fears of terror attacks at the end of
the millennium, only one major incident marred the
New-Year holiday: the seizure of an Indian Airlines
plane by hijackers demanding freedom for Kashmiri
militants. At a post-holiday review (Wednesday),
analysts pondered the outlook for terrorism around the
world in 2000. V-O-A's Ed Warner reports on the
discussion.
TEXT: From the point of view of India, terrorism
looms large. Understandably, since terrorists
hijacked an Indian Airlines plane with 155 passengers
for eight tense days.
The hijackers were acting on behalf of Kashmiri
militants fighting Indian control of the Himalayan
territory. Naresh Chandra, India's ambassador to the
United States, stresses the involvement of Pakistan in
the incident, which Pakistan vehemently denies.
The ambassador also says the terrorist conspiracy is
far broader:
/// CHANDRA ACT ///
Everybody is involved. Today it is India.
Tomorrow it can be somebody else. The group
that has done it has fingers in other countries
as well. They have operated in the Philippines.
They have also been active in Africa. To see it
just as an offshoot of the Kashmir dispute would
be a very foolish mistake on the part of those
who are interested in combating terrorism.
/// END ACT ///
Ambassador Chandra made his remarks at a meeting of
the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, a Washington
group that tracks terrorism.
Philip Wilcox, former coordinator for Counter-
Terrorism at the U-S State Department, also
participated. Terrorism is vicious and unnerving, he
says, but do not exaggerate it.
In fact, acts of international terrorism have been
sharply declining -- from a peak of 666 in 1987 to 173
in 1998. No increase is expected when last year's
figures become available.
Mr. Wilcox notes many of the incidents involve minor
violence against business targets, with no loss of
life. For that reason, he said terrorism should be
kept in perspective:
/// 1st WILCOX ACT ///
Among all the forms of violence and mayhem that
we experience, it is not the primary threat to
our well being and security. The probability
that any of us will be killed by terrorists is
minuscule, compared to the other kinds of
violence that we face. Last year, the number of
Americans who died in international terrorist
acts was less than 10. In the United States, 13
children a day on the average are killed by
gunfire.
/// END ACT ///
Various offices of the U-S government issued many
warnings of possible terrorism during the holiday
season. They have an obligation to do this, said Mr.
Wilcox, to share their information with the public.
But the danger is that could unnecessarily alarm
people -- which is just what the terrorists seek to
do.
/// 2ND WILCOX ACT ///
The real power of terrorism, and why we take it
so seriously, is that it creates enormous fear,
and that indeed is the aim of terrorists. It is
not so much to kill people; it is to frighten
them, and they have done so quite successfully.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Wilcox says terrorists are skilled at manipulating
the media, and indeed, threats of terrorism were
headline stories for several days.
Mr. Wilcox adds, it is not enough just to fight
terrorism after the event. It must be attacked at its
roots, which lie in ethnic and political conflicts in
many parts of the world.
The lack of terrorism over the holidays may be partly
explained by the settlement of some disputes; in
northern Ireland, for instance, and negotiations
between Israelis and Palestinians. It also helped
that Libya handed over the suspects in the bombing of
Pan Am Flight 103 to a British court.
If the conflict in Kashmir can be resolved, said Mr.
Wilcox, that would lead to still less terrorism.
(Signed)
NEB/EW/WTW
05-Jan-2000 17:55 PM EDT (05-Jan-2000 2255 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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