DATE=4/14/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43115
TITLE= PREVENTING TERRORISM
BYLINE=CAROL PINEAU
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: WASHINGTON
INTRO: SECURITY EXPERTS SAY A NEW PROPOSAL TO SPEND
ONE-POINT-FOUR BILLION DOLLARS TO HELP SAFEGUARD U-S MISSIONS
AROUND THE WORLD FROM TERRORISM IS ESSENTIAL. BUT AS V-O-A'S
CAROL PINEAU REPORTS THESE SAME EXPERTS WARN EVEN WITH MORE
SECURITY, THERE IS NO WAY TO BE 100-PERCENT SAFE FROM TERRORIST
ATTACKS.
TEXT: FOLLOWING THE TERRORIST BOMBS AT THE U-S EMBASSIES IN KENYA
AND TANZANIA LAST AUGUST, THE U-S STATE DEPARTMENT SAID BOTH
EMBASSIES HAD RECEIVED VARIOUS INTELLIGENCE REPORTS ON POTENTIAL
TERRORIST ATTACKS, BUT NO SPECIFIC THREATS.
ADMIRAL WILLIAM CROWE CHAIRED THE STATE DEPARTMENT'S
ACCOUNTABILITY REVIEW BOARD LOOKING INTO THE AFRICA BOMBINGS. HE
EXPLAINS EVERY EMBASSY AROUND THE WORLD RECEIVES GENERAL
INTELLIGENCE REPORTS OF POTENTIAL THREATS, BUT SAYS THE REPORTS
ARE NOT RELIABLE PREDICTORS OF TERRORIST ATTACKS.
/// CROWE ACT #1 ///
POLICY AND INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON
WARNING INTELLIGENCE TO MEASURE THREATS, WHEREAS
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISTS OFTEN
STRIKE WITHOUT WARNING TO VULNERABLE TARGETS AND AREAS
WHERE EXPECTATIONS OF ATTACKS ARE LOW.
/// END ACT ///
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS CONSULTANT BRIAN JENKINS SAYS THAT ONE OF
THE AXIOMS OF TERRORISM IS THAT ENSURING PHYSICAL SAFETY IN ONE
PLACE DOES NOT PREVENT TERRORISM OVERALL.
/// JENKINS ACT #1 ///
TERRORISTS BEGIN BY IDENTIFYING TARGETS THAT ARE
SYMBOLICALLY SUITABLE. THERE ARE MANY OF THESE, AND
FROM THIS LONG LIST OF CANDIDATES THEY WILL CHOOSE A
TARGET ON THE BASIS OF ITS VULNERABILITY. A WELL
PROTECTED FACILITY WILL PERSUADE THEM TO SEEK ANOTHER,
EASIER TARGET. PHYSICAL SECURITY WORKS IN THAT IT DOES
DISPLACE THE RISK, BUT IT DOES NOT DEPRIVE THE TERRORIST
OF THE TARGETS TO ATTACK.
/// END ACT ///
MR. JENKINS SAYS IF ALL U-S EMBASSIES WERE PROTECTED, CONSULATES
AND AMBASSADORS' RESIDENCES WOULD BECOME MORE VULNERABLE. AND IF
THOSE BECAME WELL GUARDED, TERRORISTS WOULD GO AFTER AMERICAN
CULTURAL CENTERS, CLUBS, SCHOOLS, CORPORATIONS AND CHURCHES.
/// BEGIN OPT ///
BUT MR. JENKINS SAYS FROM A TERRORIST'S POINT OF VIEW, SOFT
TARGETS ARE OFTEN "LESS LUCRATIVE," AS THEY GET LOWER NUMBERS OF
THE TARGETED VICTIMS. MR. JENKINS NOTES IN LAST YEAR'S AFRICA
BOMBINGS NEARLY 99-PERCENT OF THE DEAD AND INJURED WERE AFRICAN
-- NOT THE INTENDED AMERICANS. MR. JENKINS SAYS IT IS A
PERCENTAGE WHICH, FROM A TERRORISTS POINT-OF-VIEW, IS
COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE.
/// JENKINS ACT #2 - OPT ///
FANATICS WHO BELIEVE THEY ARE ACTING IN THE NAME OF GOD
MAY CARE LITTLE ABOUT COLLATERAL CASUALTIES, BUT WANTON
KILLING DOES CREATE BACKLASHES THAT MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
RECRUIT LOCAL ALLIES AND MAINTAIN OPERATIONAL SECRECY
FOR FUTURE ATTACKS.
/// END ACT ///
CONGRESS -- FACED WITH INNUMERABLE FINANCIAL DEMANDS -- HAS NOT
ALLOTTED WHAT EXPERTS SAY IS SUFFICIENT FUNDS FOR INCREASED
SECURITY. BUT MR. JENKINS THREAT ASSESSMENTS SHOULD BE
INFLUENCING THE BUDGET, NOT BUDGETS INFLUENCING THREAT
ASSESSMENTS. /// END OPT ///
ADMIRAL CROWE SAYS U-S OFFICIALS MUST REALIZE THE THREAT IS REAL,
AND THAT IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE.
/// CROWE ACT #2 ///
THIS IS NOT THE KIND OF TERRORISM THEY GREW UP ON, AND
ITS GOING TO BE EVEN DIFFERENT WHEN THE BIOLOGICAL AND
CHEMICAL WEAPONS ENTER THE PICTURE.
/// END ACT ////
/// BEGIN OPT /// ADMIRAL CROWE SAYS IMPROVING SECURITY IS NOT
JUST A MATTER OF PROTECTING U-S FOREIGN SERVICE PERSONNEL.
/// CROWE ACT #3 ///
HOST COUNTRIES ARE DRAMATICALLY IMPACTED BY THESE
INCIDENTS...AND WHEN WE MAKE OUR EMBASSIES SAFER, WE'RE
NOT ONLY SAVING AMERICANS, WE'RE POSSIBLY SAVING A GREAT
MANY FOREIGNERS AS WELL.
/// END ACT /// END OPT ///
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION HAS BEEN HELPING TO REDUCE THE NUMBER
OF TERRORIST ATTACKS. SECURITY EXPERT BRIAN JENKINS SAYS THE
UNITED STATES HAS BEEN ACTIVE IN USING A VARIETY OF INCENTIVES TO
ENCOURAGE STATES TO SUPPORT THE U-S DRIVE AGAINST TERRORISM.
/// JENKINS ACT #3 ///
IT'S NO ACCIDENT THAT THE VOLUME OF TERRORIST ATTACKS
HAS DECLINED. THE FACT IS THERE IS LESS STATE SUPPORT,
THERE ARE FEWER SAFE HAVENS, THERE IS A GREATER
WILLINGNESS ON THE PART OF GOVERNMENTS AROUND THE WORLD
TO GO AFTER, APPREHEND, PROSECUTE OR EXTRADITE
TERRORISTS.
/// END ACT ///
BUT MR. JENKINS AND OTHER EXPERTS BELIEVE THE THREAT REMAINS
HIGH. MR. JENKINS SAYS TERRORISTS ARE NO DOUBT PLANNING ATTACKS
AT THIS TIME, AND THAT WHILE INCREASING SECURITY CAN REDUCE THE
EASE WITH WHICH TERRORISTS OPERATE, IT CANNOT STOP EVERY ATTACK.
(SIGNED)
NEB/CP/JO
15-Apr-99 10:54 AM EDT (1454 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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