DATE=10/20/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41636
TITLE=IRAQ / U-S
BYLINE=DOUGLAS ROBERTS
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: OPPONENTS OF IRAQ'S PRESIDENT SADDAM HUSSEIN ARE
WELCOMING A MOVE BY THE U-S CONGRESS, AUTHORIZING MILITARY AID TO
HELP OUST THE IRAQI LEADER. BUT THE CONGRESSIONAL ACTION HAS
PROMPTED RENEWED BICKERING WITHIN THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT, AND IT
HAS BEEN ROUNDLY CRITICIZED BY MANY U-S ANALYSTS. V-O-A'S
DOUGLAS ROBERTS FILED THIS BACKGROUND REPORT.
TEXT: THE BILL, KNOWN AS THE IRAQ LIBERATION ACT, WON
OVERWHELMING APPROVAL FROM BOTH HOUSES OF CONGRESS EARLIER THIS
MONTH. IT AUTHORIZES THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION TO SPEND UP TO
97-MILLION DOLLARS TO EQUIP AND TRAIN OPPONENTS OF SADDAM
HUSSEIN.
/// OPT /// ADDITIONAL FUNDING IS AUTHORIZED FOR A NEWLY-CREATED
U-S BROADCAST SERVICE KNOWN AS RADIO FREE IRAQ, AND FOR ATTEMPTS
TO PROSECUTE SADDAM FOR WAR CRIMES. /// END OPT ///
THE LEGISLATION DOES NOT SPECIFY WHICH IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS
SHOULD RECEIVE THE MILITARY AID. BUT REPUBLICAN SPONSORS OF THE
BILL INDICATED A PREFERENCE FOR THE IRAQI NATIONAL CONGRESS --
THE I-N-C -- LED BY AHMED CHALABI, A U-S EDUCATED MATHEMATICIAN,
AND A VETERAN CAMPAIGNER AGAINST THE BAGHDAD GOVERNMENT.
MR. CHALABI'S SPOKESMAN IN WASHINGTON -- NIBRAZ KAZIMI -- SAYS
THE I-N-C ENTHUSIASTICALLY WELCOMES THE CONGRESSIONAL MOVE, AND
IS PREPARED TO MAKE GOOD USE OF THE PROPOSED MILITARY AID.
///KAZIMI ACT///
WELL, IT SHOULD BE USED TO TRAIN, EQUIP AND SUPPLY IRAQI
FREEDOM FIGHTERS THAT WILL BE SENT INTO IRAQI TERRITORY
TO ESTABLISH THEMSELVES OVER THERE AND CREATE A SAFE
HAVEN, REFUGE, FOR DESERTING UNITS (OF THE IRAQI ARMY)
AND CIVILIANS TO JOIN THEM THERE AND, ONCE AGAIN, TRAIN,
EQUIP AND SUPPLY AND BEGIN THE PROCESS OF LIBERATING
IRAQ.
///END ACT///
MR. KAZIMI ACKNOWLEDGES THAT THE I-N-C HAS NO MILITARY WING AT
PRESENT. BUT HE SAYS THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF VOLUNTEERS,
ADDING THAT THE ORGANIZATION HAS TENS OF THOUSANDS OF SUPPORTERS
AND SYMPATHIZERS INSIDE IRAQ.
OTHER IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS AND SOME INDEPENDENT ANALYSTS
CONTEST THAT CLAIM.
MR. CHALABI HAS A ROLE TO PLAY, SAYS AN OFFICIAL OF A RIVAL
OPPOSITION GROUP, BUT HE HAS NO FOLLOWING INSIDE IRAQ, AND
CANNOT BE RECOGNIZED AS THE OVER-ALL LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION.
U-S MILITARY AID, SAYS THIS OFFICIAL, SHOULD GO TO THOSE FORCES
THAT REALLY MATTER, NOT TO MAINTAIN WHAT HE DESCRIBED AS
LUXURIOUS OFFICES FOR OPPOSITION LEADERS IN EXILE.
U-S ANALYSTS, LIKE PROFESSOR MICHAEL GUNTER OF TENNESSEE TECH
UNIVERSITY, SAY THE IRAQI OPPOSITION CAN ONLY BE EFFECTIVE IF IT
INCLUDES THE TWO KURDISH GUERRILLA GROUPS THAT TOGETHER CONTROL
NORTHERN IRAQ, AS WELL AS THE SHIITE MUSLIM SUPREME COUNCIL FOR
THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION IN IRAQ, BASED IN TEHRAN AND SUPPORTED BY
THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT.
/// OPT /// THE TWO KURDISH FACTIONS WERE RECENTLY RECONCILED
UNDER U-S AUSPICES AFTER YEARS OF OPEN CONFLICT. BUT BOTH
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DIALOGUE WITH THE BAGHDAD GOVERNMENT, AND
PROFESSOR GUNTER SAYS BOTH ARE CLEARLY RELUCTANT TO RE-FORGE
OPERATIONAL LINKS WITH THE OTHER OPPOSITION GROUPS.
///GUNTER ACT/// /// OPT ACT ///
AND THE KURDS ARE NOT PART OF THE OPPOSITION RIGHT
NOW, SO WHAT IS THE OPPOSITION ARE SOME VERY WEAK,
EXILED GROUPS IN LONDON AND A FEW OTHER PLACES, WHICH
HAVE ALMOST NO VIABILITY OR CONNECTION WITH THE
HOMELAND.
///END ACT/// /// END OPT ///
PROFESSOR GUNTER BELIEVES THE OPPOSITION PRESENTS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF A CREDIBLE THREAT TO SADDAM HUSSEIN'S HOLD ON POWER.
///GUNTER ACT///
I THINK SADDAM HAS PROVEN THAT HE CAN LAST FOR A LONG
TIME. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT HE WILL NOT BE
KNOCKED OFF (KILLED) TOMORROW BUT I DO NOT SEE THAT AS
IMMINENT. /// OPT /// I HAVE ALWAYS THOUGHT THAT
SOMEBODY WHO HAS A GRUDGE AGAINST HIM WILL MAYBE SOME
DAY SHOOT HIM BETWEEN THE EYES, BUT OUTSIDE OF THAT I DO
NOT SEE ANYTHING. /// END OPT ///
///END ACT///
BUT NIBRAS KAZIMI OF THE I-N-C INSISTS THAT THE OPPOSITION DOES
REPRESENT A REAL THREAT TO BAGHDAD. AND SADDAM'S REACTION TO THE
U-S CONGRESSIONAL ACTION, HE ADDS, DEMONSTRATES THE IRAQI
LEADER'S CONCERN.
///KAZIMI ACT////
FOR (OVER) THE LAST WEEK, SADDAM HAS HAD THREE MEETINGS
WITH THE SUPREME REVOLUTIONARY COMMAND COUNCIL, WHICH IS
THE HIGHEST AUTHORITY IN IRAQ, TO DISCUSS WAYS OF
COUNTERING THIS MEASURE FROM NOW, EVEN BEFORE THE (U-S)
ADMINISTRATION HAS HAD THE TIME TO LOOK IT OVER, AND
START TAKING EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES TO STOP IT FROM
HAPPENING.
///END ACT///
THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION HAS NOT YET DECIDED HOW TO ALLOCATE
THE FUNDS, AUTHORIZED BY THE IRAQ LIBERATION ACT. THE STATE
DEPARTMENT SAYS IT IS WORKING ON AN ELABORATE SPENDING PROGRAM
DESIGNED TO FOSTER MAXIMUM COOPERATION AMONG THE VARIOUS
OPPOSITION GROUPS AND DEMONSTRATE THAT THEY CONSTITUTE A VIABLE
DEMOCRATIC ALTERNATIVE TO SADDAM HUSSEIN'S RULE.
BUT CRITICS, LIKE MICHAEL GUNTER, ARGUE THAT NEITHER CONGRESS NOR
THE ADMINISTRATION IS REALLY SERIOUS ABOUT AIDING THE OPPOSITION
FORCES. IT'S JUST POLITICS, SAYS PROFESSOR GUNTER, WITH EACH
SIDE (CONGRESS AND THE ADMINISTRATION) TRYING TO DEMONSTRATE THAT
IT IS TOUGHER ON THE IRAQI LEADER.
/// REMAINDER OPT ///
///GUNTER ACT///
I WISH IT WERE REALLY SIGNIFICANT, BUT FOR THE PAST FIVE
OR SIX YEARS, THE UNITED STATES HAS REALLY NOT BEEN
SERIOUS ABOUT BACKING THE OPPOSITION AND I DO NOT THINK
THE UNITED STATES IS SERIOUS NOW.
///END ACT///
MANY U-S ANALYSTS SHARE THAT ASSESSMENT.IN AN EDITORIAL THIS
WEEK, THE NEW YORK TIMES SAID CONGRESS' DESIRE TO HASTEN THE
REMOVAL OF SADDAM HUSSEIN IS UNDERSTANDABLE, BUT THROWING MONEY
AND WEAPONS AT WHAT IT TERMS IRAQ'S FEEBLE AND FRACTIOUS
OPPOSITION WILL NOT ACHIEVE THE INTENDED RESULTS.
THE NEWSPAPER SAYS THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONCENTRATE ON
EFFORTS TO PREVENT IRAQ FROM REBUILDING ITS ARSENAL OF BIOLOGICAL
AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS. AND IT URGES THE WHITE HOUSE TO FIRMLY
RESIST ANY TEMPTATION TO ARM WHAT IT CALLS THE DISCREDITED
ORGANIZATIONS THAT MAKE UP THE IRAQI OPPOSITION. (SIGNED)
NEB/DB/GE
20-Oct-98 12:49 PM EDT (1649 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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