DATE=8/3/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41071
TITLE=KHATAMI ANNIVERSARY -- P 1: REFORMS
BYLINE=ALI JALALI
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
NOT VOICED:
INTRO: ONE YEAR AGO THIS WEEK (AUGUST 3), THE REFORM-MINDED
IRANIAN PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI BEGAN HIS TERM IN OFFICE
FOLLOWING A LANDSLIDE ELECTION VICTORY OVER HIS HARDLINE
OPPONENT. THE SHIFT HAS BEEN SEEN AS A TURNING POINT IN IRAN'S
ISLAMIC REVOLUTION. (IN THIS FIRST OF A FOUR-PART SERIES),
V-O-A'S ALI JALALI REVIEWS THE RECORD OF MR. KHATAMI DURING HIS
FIRST YEAR IN OFFICE.
TEXT: PRESIDENT KHATAMI HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MOST CLOSELY WATCHED
LEADERS IN IRAN AND FAR BEYOND ITS BORDERS. HIS LANDSLIDE
ELECTION ON A REFORM MANDATE RAISED EXPECTATIONS FOR FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGES IN IRAN AND OPENING UP OF THE COUNTRY TO THE OUTSIDE
WORLD.
NOW, ONE YEAR AFTER HIS INAUGURATION, MR. KHATAMI FINDS HIMSELF
HAMSTRUNG (CRIPPLED) BY A SYSTEM WHERE THE PRESIDENT HOLDS THE
TOP ELECTED POST BUT NOT THE HIGHEST EXECUTIVE POWER. HE IS
OUT-MATCHED IN AUTHORITY BY THE SUPREME RELIGIOUS LEADER,
AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI, WHO ALONG WITH HIS CONSERVATIVE ALLIES
CONTROLS MOST OF THE LEVERS OF POWER INCLUDING THE PARLIAMENT,
THE JUDICIARY, THE ARMY AND THE SECURITY FORCES.
MEANWHILE, THE CHANGE-SEEKING POPULAR MOVEMENT THAT BROUGHT MR.
KHATAMI TO POWER REMAINS ACTIVE AND VOCAL. CAUGHT BETWEEN PUBLIC
DEMANDS FOR CHANGE AND THE ANTI-REFORM POSTURE OF THE
CONSERVATIVE CLERGY, MR. KHATAMI, IN THE VIEW OF WESTERN
OBSERVERS, HAS OPTED FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY MOVE TOWARD HIS
CAMPAIGN GOALS. PROFESSOR HOSHANG AMIR-AHMADI OF RUTGERS
UNIVERSITY, WHO VISITED IRAN LAST MONTH, SAYS THE OUTCOME HAS
BEEN MIXED.
// AMIR-AHMADI ACT //
PRESIDENT KHATAMI HAD A PLAN FOR POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT THAT
FOCUSED ON A FREER PRESS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF POLITICAL
PARTIES, THE RULE OF LAW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIVIL SOCIETY
INSTITUTIONS. IN THIS AREA, THE RESULT OVER THE YEAR HAS BEEN
MIXED. BY THAT I MEAN THERE ARE AREAS WHERE THERE HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE, AND THERE ARE AREAS WHERE THE CHANGES HAVE
NOT BEEN SO IMPORTANT.
// END ACT //
MR. AMIR-AHMADI SAYS NO REAL OPPOSITION PARTIES HAVE EMERGED SO
FAR AND NO MAJOR IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN ACHIEVED IN THE RULE OF
LAW. BUT, HE SAYS, SIGNIFICANT STEPS HAVE BEEN TAKEN TOWARD
LIBERALIZING THE MEDIA AND RELAXING CERTAIN SOCIAL AND CULTURAL
RESTRICTIONS.
ANOTHER RECENT VISITOR TO IRAN, FRENCH AUTHOR AND ANALYST DR.
OLIVIER ROY, SAYS THE IMPROVEMENT IN PRESS FREEDOM HAS FOSTERED
PUBLIC DEBATE ON ISSUES THAT AFFECT THE LIVES OF INDIVIDUALS AND
THE SOCIETY AS A WHOLE.
// ROY ACT //
WHAT IS STRIKING TO ME IS THE IMPORTANCE OF THE PUBLIC DEBATE.
EVERYBODY IS NOW TALKING ABOUT POLITICS. THERE IS A LARGE
FREEDOM OF PRESS -- EVEN IF, OF COURSE, THERE IS STILL SOME
CENSORSHIP. FOR EXAMPLE, THE TRIAL OF THE MAYOR OF TEHRAN WAS
BROADCAST EVERY EVENING AND LARGE CROWDS OF POPULATION WERE
WATCHING THE BROADCAST.
// END ACT //
MR. ROY SAYS THE RELATIVE OPENNESS IS PREPARING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CIVIL SOCIETY WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR THEME
IN PRESIDENT KHATAMI'S CAMPAIGN.
HOWEVER, PROFESSOR MARK GASIOROWSKI OF LOUISIANA STATE
UNIVERSITY, WHO ALSO RECENTLY VISITED IRAN AND TAUGHT IN TEHRAN
UNIVERSITY, TAKES EXCEPTION TO SUCH OPTIMISTIC INTERPRETATION.
HE SAYS WESTERN ANALYSTS READ TO MUCH INTO THE CHANGES IN SOCIAL
AND CULTURAL AREAS.
// GASIOROWSKI ACT //
THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE LIBERALIZATION ON THE SOCIAL AND
CULTURAL ISSUES. I THINK BECAUSE OF THIS CONSIDERABLE
LIBERALIZATION IN THIS AREA, A LOT OF WESTERN OBSERVERS HAVE
MISTAKENLY COME TO THE CONCLUSION THAT THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF
CHANGE IN IRAN -- CHANGE OVERALL. I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE
BEEN MISLED BY PAYING TOO MUCH ATTENTION TO THESE SOCIO-CULTURAL
ISSUES.
// END ACT //
DR. GASIOROWSKI SAYS WHAT HAS BEEN ACHIEVED IN SOCIAL AND
CULTURAL AFFAIRS HAS NOT BEEN EXTENDED TO THE MOST IMPORTANT
AREAS OF POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC REFORM. GIVEN THE
COUNTRY'S CONSTITUTION AND ALIGNMENT OF FORCES, HE SAYS HE DOES
NOT EXPECT TO SEE MAJOR CHANGES IN IRAN IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
HOWEVER HE AGREES THAT LONG-TERM SHIFTS IN THE COUNTRY MAY BECOME
INEVITABLE.
// OPT // DESPITE HIS STUMBLING PROGRESS IN MAKING GOOD ON HIS
CAMPAIGN PLEDGES, PRESIDENT KHATAMI CONTINUES TO ENJOY A HIGH
LEVEL OF POPULARITY. IRANIAN OBSERVERS ATTRIBUTE THE MOOD
MOSTLY TO WHAT MR. KHATAMI STANDS FOR, RATHER THAN WHAT HE
DELIVERS.
// OPT // MS. SIMIN BEHBAHANI, A HIGHLY RESPECTED IRANIAN POET
AND ONE OF THE MOST OUTSPOKEN DEFENDERS OF WOMEN'S RIGHTS INSIDE
IRAN, SAYS MR. KHATAMI'S WIDE PUBLIC APPROVAL STEMS FROM HIS
ASSOCIATION WITH AN ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT POPULAR MOVEMENT.
// OPT // BEHBAHANI ACT IN FARSI -- FADE UNDER //
// OPT // SHE SAYS THE REFORM UNDER PRESIDENT KHATAMI IS IN FACT
THE CONTINUATION OF A TREND OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SHIFTS THAT
ACTUALLY PRODUCED MR. KHATAMI AS A POLITICAL ENTITY AND HELPED
HIM WIN HIS SWEEPING VICTORY OVER THE ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE IN
LAST YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
// OPT // BUT ANALYSTS SAY, INSTEAD OF LEADING THIS MOVEMENT AND
TURNING IT INTO AN ORGANIZED POLITICAL POWER TO FORCE REFORM, MR.
KHATAMI HAS BEEN TRYING TO EFFECT CHANGES FROM WITHIN THE
ESTABLISHMENT. PROFESSOR AMIR-AHMADI SAYS THE MOVE BROUGHT
HALFWAY RESULTS.
// OPT // AMIR-AHMADI ACT //
HE (PRESIDENT KHATAMI) TRIED TO USE THE MOVEMENT TO BRING
CHANGES IN THE SOCIETY, BUT HE IMMEDIATELY FOUND OUT THAT THERE
WAS NO CONSENSUS WITHIN THE RULING ELITE ON THE EXTENT OF THE
CHANGE, AND AS A RESULT HE HAS SLOWED DOWN AND TAKEN BACK STEPS
IN THE DIRECTION OF GETTING CLOSER TO THE CORE ELITE GROUP,
TRYING TO MAKE COMPROMISES SUCH THAT THE CORE ELITE WILL ACCEPT
CERTAIN LEVEL OF CHANGES IN THE SOCIETY.
// END ACT //
// OPT // MR. AMIR-AHMADI AGREES WITH MANY OTHER OBSERVERS THAT
PRESIDENT KHATAMI IS STILL COMMITTED TO REFORMS, BUT IS WAITING
FOR BETTER POLITICAL CONDITIONS TO PUSH HARDER. // END OPT //
ANALYSTS SAY MR. KHATAMI SEEMS TO BE TRYING TO OUTWAIT THE
CONSERVATIVE DOMINATION EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE NEXT
PARLIAMENT (MAJLIS) ELECTIONS, ABOUT ONE-YEAR-AND-HALF YEARS
AWAY. THEY SAY HE HOPES THE POLITICAL ORIENTATION OF THE NEXT
MAJLIS WILL FOSTER DEEPER TRANSFORMATION THROUGH CONSTITUTIONAL
AMENDMENTS. (SIGNED)
NEB/AJ/MMK
03-Aug-98 10:35 AM EDT (1435 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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