DATE=5/6/98
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-231827
TITLE=PENTAGON / CUBA (L)
BYLINE=JIM RANDLE
DATELINE=PENTAGON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: U-S MILITARY AND INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS SAY CUBA NO
LONGER POSES A THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES OR CUBA'S OTHER
NEIGHBORS. THE ASSESSMENT COMES IN A LONG-DELAYED AND
CONTROVERSIAL REPORT TO CONGRESS. V-O-A'S JIM RANDLE REPORTS
FROM THE PENTAGON, THE REPORT MAY SPARK CRITICISM FROM
CUBAN-AMERICAN MEMBERS OF CONGRESS.
TEXT: THE REPORT SAYS THE END OF SOVIET SUBSIDIES FORCED
HAVANA TO CUT ITS ONCE-ROBUST MILITARY BY 50 PER CENT, TO BETWEEN
50 AND 65-THOUSAND TROOPS. IT SAYS THE NAVY HAS SHRUNK TO ONLY
ONE DOZEN SHIPS, THE AIR FORCE TO TWO DOZEN COMBAT READY PLANES.
THE REPORT SAYS TRAINING FOR PILOTS AND OTHERS IS BARELY ADEQUATE
TO MAINTAIN PROFICIENCY.
HOWEVER, THE REPORT ALSO CONCLUDED THAT DESPITE THESE
WEAKNESSES, CUBA'S FORCES HAVE ENOUGH "RESIDUAL STRENGTH" TO MAKE
AN INVASION VERY COSTLY, AND THAT CUBAN MILITARY LEADERS ARE
"COMBAT-EXPERIENCED AND DISCIPLINED."
//OPT// THE HEAD OF A PRIVATE GROUP THAT STUDIES LATIN AMERICAN
ISSUES, SAYS PRIOR PENTAGON REPORTS OVERSTATED THE CUBAN THREAT
TO HELP JUSTIFY LARGE U-S MILITARY BUDGETS. BUT THE DIRECTOR OF
THE COUNCIL ON HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS, LARRY BIRNS, SAYS THIS LATEST
ASSESSMENT SOUNDS ABOUT RIGHT TO HIM.
/// BIRNS ACT ///
CLEARLY THE CUBAN THREAT NO LONGER EXISTS. THESE
SOLDIERS, THAT CUBA HAS TODAY, AND IT'S MENTIONED IN THE
REPORT, ARE LARGELY FARMERS AND NOT SOLDIERS. THE CUBAN
ECONOMY IS IN SUCH REDUCED STATES THAT THE ARMY, HAS TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH GROWING CROPS AND ENGAGING IN
VARIOUS KINDS OF BUSINESS ACTIVITIES.
/// END ACT & OPT ///
WHEN WORD OF THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT REPORT LEAKED TO THE PRESS
SEVERAL WEEKS AGO, TWO CUBAN-AMERICAN MEMBERS OF CONGRESS
DENOUNCED ITS CONCLUSIONS. THEY URGED THE PENTAGON TO PAINT A
MORE THREATENING, AND THEY SAID MORE ACCURATE PICTURE OF CUBA --
NOTING THAT, AMONG OTHER THINGS, CUBA'S NUCLEAR REACTOR PROGRAM
COULD BE USED FOR MILITARY PURPOSES.
IN A LETTER TO CONGRESS ACCOMPANYING THE REPORT, DEFENSE
SECRETARY WILLIAM COHEN SAYS INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITIES IN CUBA ARE
STILL A CONCERN FOR THE UNITED STATES. HE ALSO EXPRESSED CONCERN
THAT ACCIDENTS AT A CUBAN NUCLEAR PLANT MIGHT RELEASE RADIATION,
OR THAT CUBAN BIOTECHNOLOGY SKILLS MIGHT PRODUCE BIOLOGICAL
WEAPONS.
MR. COHEN ALSO SAYS HE LOOKED OVER U-S MILITARY CONTINGENCY PLANS
FOR DEALING WITH CUBA, AND SAYS THEY ARE APPROPRIATE FOR THE
LEVEL AND NATURE OF THE THREAT TO U-S SECURITY. (SIGNED)
NEB/JR/WFR
06-May-98 6:47 PM EDT (2247 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
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