ACCESSION NUMBER:00000
FILE ID:95042505.POL
DATE:04/25/95
TITLE:ARMS CONTROL EXPERTS PREDICT PERMANENT EXTENSION FOR NPT
TEXT:
(NPT: See it principal barrier to nuclear expansion) (790)
By Jacquelyn S. Porth
USIA Security Affairs Writer
Washington -- Three U.S. arms control experts expressed agreement on
April 25 that the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) will be
indefinitely extended before the month-long NPT review and extension
conference ends in New York on May 12.
U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA) Director John Holum,
syndicated columnist and former ACDA Director Kenneth Adelman, and
Leonard Spector of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
predicted the 1968 treaty will be made permanent after the 178 members
vote in the coming weeks.
Treaty members must vote to extend the NPT indefinitely, which would
give the arms control agreement permanent status, or to extend it for
a fixed or fixed periods. Venezuela, for example, has proposed a
25-year extension of the treaty, while Indonesia favors fixed periods
of extension. The United States, meanwhile, for several years, has
been urging indefinite extension.
As of April 24, the Campaign for the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which
represents 18 private U.S. arms control and disarmament organizations,
had counted more than 97 nations that have publicly expressed support
for indefinite extension of the NPT. That is more than the minimum
number of states required to carry the vote.
In an April 25 interview on National Public Radio's, "The Diane Rehm
Show," Holum pointed out that the NPT has been the "principal barrier"
to the growth of nuclear weapons states. There are currently five
nuclear weapons states -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the
United States -- and three threshold states -- India, Pakistan and
Israel. South Africa renounced its nuclear weapons in 1992.
The NPT has worked "quite well," Holum said, noting that without it
there could be as many as 40 states with the technological capability
to produce nuclear devices if they chose to do so. At the same time,
he said, the treaty has not been an "entire barrier" to states with
nuclear ambitions. The NPT, he said, has not yet succeeded in reigning
in the threshold states.
The treaty should be supplemented with appropriate nuclear export
controls, the ACDA official said. Without the NPT, he indicated, some
900 nuclear facilities around the world would be unregulated.
The NPT should be made permanent, Holum argued, not as "a favor" to
the United States or other nuclear weapons states but because it is a
"security instrument" for its members.
Spector, asked about prospects for the forthcoming vote, said there
appears to be majority support for indefinite extension assuming
conference attendees successfully solicit response from the nuclear
weapons states on a "formula" for future nuclear arms reductions.
Adelman said "it is really wrong" for non-nuclear weapons states to
complain that the nuclear weapons states have not lived up to their
commitments under the terms of the treaty, and Holum called arms
reduction efforts "very dramatic."
The United States, he pointed out, has committed to eliminate 80
percent of its peak nuclear arsenal. The United States is also taking
the lead in trying to achieve an early conclusion of a Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty and a nuclear fissile material cut-off convention.
While a number of Third World countries complain about the NPT,
Adelman said, the treaty is a "good bargain" for them because they
benefit from having non-nuclear neighbors.
Spector, who is one of the authors of a new Carnegie Endowment book
titled "Tracking Nuclear Proliferation," suggested that a notable fact
about the NPT is that, despite considerable "grousing" about the
treaty, more and more countries are joining all the time.
Holum said Iraq's previously unknown nuclear efforts have been "a wake
up call" for the international community and the special inspections
carried out by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in the
post-Persian Gulf conflict era have helped bring "to light" the
potential nuclear problem in North Korea.
Spector warned that Iraq would like to "restart" its nuclear program
if it could. International dismantlement, monitoring, and inspection
efforts make this unlikely, he said, noting that there is much more
sharing of intelligence information on nuclear activities in the
post-Gulf war period through the IAEA. He did not reveal the source of
that information.
Holum said the IAEA is taking steps to assert its rights "more
forcefully" to inspect undeclared nuclear facilities in the wake of
its experiences in both Iraq and North Korea.
Adelman argued that the possibility of IAEA inspectors detecting NPT
violations through unannounced inspections is frequently oversold, but
Holum said the existence of the NPT and associated international
safeguards makes clandestine nuclear activities considerably less
possible than in the past.
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