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Shahab-6

(TD-2 with three stages or more redesigned?)

© Charles P. Vick 2007 All Rights Reserved

March 5, 2007

Disclaimer

The opinions and evaluations stated here in are only the authors and cannot be construed to reflect those of any Government agency, company, institute or association. It is based on public information, circumstantial evidence, informed speculation, declassified U.S. intelligence community documents, official Iranian and North Korean government documents and histories, oral histories, interviews and reverse engineering analysis. As with all data regarding the Iranian and North Korean strategic space and ballistic missile programs, this analysis is subject to revision--and represents a work in progress

Shahab-6/IRSL-X-4,

(TD-2 with three stages or more redesigned?)

The Shahab-6 is expected to have a range of 5,470-5,500 and 5,632-6,200 kilometers with a 1,000-750-500 (1,158-650 kilograms identified) kilogram warhead. This range capability will depend on the number of stages used in the launch vehicle and their performance. December 1996 news reports claimed that Iran is developing a 3,500-mile (5,632 kilometers) range missile called Shahab-6 that would be capable of reaching Europe. The technology for this system was cited as coming from Russia and North Korea. Reportedly the missile would become operational by the year 2,000, though others reports claim that Iran intends to complete the development of this system within five to ten years. Presumably this missile will turn out to be a totally redesigned Taep’o-dong-2C/3/NKSL-X-3 Iranian first stage derivation with new redesigned shorter larger diameter second and third stages.

Iran's Overall Launch Vehiclre Development Heritage

Quoting from the Oct. 1, 1998, The Washington Times, “Israeli, Prime Minister Mr. Benjamin Netanyahu said, “Iran is developing the Shahab-4 which can reach well into Europe, and the Shahab-5 and 6, which (will have the capacity) to reach the Eastern Sea board (of the United States)”. The article went on to quote from the Blue-ribbon Congressional Commission --- headed by then former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. “In addition to this Scud-based long-range ballistic missile program, Iran has acquired and is seeking major, advanced missile components that can be combined to produce ballistic missiles with sufficient range to strike the United States, “----.” (1) The following information was provided from the July 16, 1999, The Washington Times article. Iran’s Kosar launch vehicle was suggested to be the Iranian variant of the North Korea’s Taep’o-dong-2 booster. The new missile was said to be undergoing design development with assistance from Russian aerospace technicians and state-run entities. It was suggested that it could be powered with a version of Russia’s storable liquid propellant RD-216 closed cycle two engine cluster in its booster first stage. The RD-216 is an Energomash engine originally used on the Skean/SS-5/R-14, IRBM, Saddler/SS-7/R-16, ICBM and Sasin/R-26 ICBM missiles developed during the cold war. It is still used on the C-1, Kosmos/SL-8 Russian space booster. This does suggest fairly strongly that Iran has acquired through elicit means the designs of both the SS-4, RD-214 and the SS-5, RD-216 storable liquid propellant rocket engines and the SS-4 missile body production technology. This is questionable but gives some insight into the Taep’o-dong-2 first stage design. It was based on new information suggesting there had been another rocket engine technology transfer from a Russian rocket engine entity Energomash. (2) No further clarifying information on this has since surfaced. Energomash was later accused of providing “Water Pumping” turbo machinery for Iran as a part of a joint venture but all charges for that were dropped since it apparently did not go through.

Missile Systems Nomenclature

Liquid Propellant Launch Vehicles

Solid Propellant Motor Launch Vehicles

This unproven rocket engine technology transfer from Russia to Iran would not give Iran the engine documentation or the actual hardware. Nor did it give the Iranians precise engineering drawings of each part or the materials and technology to produce and duplicate that technology. The only application where the Iranians could apply this acquired rocket engine technology is in the Shahab-5 and Shahab-6 boosters programs. However this assumes the Iranians can even produce the engines. Certainly that will take Iran and North Korea years beyond their intended design development cycle for those launch vehicles in order for them to assimilate that rocket engine technology. Therefore they are left with no other alternative but to work with the North Korean engine technology in their possession and their rework of it for the Shahab-5 and Shahab-6 programs in cooperation with North Korea. Early in 2007 after eight years there has been no further evidence of such technology emerging from the North Korean or Iranian ballistic missile or space booster programs. The suggestion that they are based on the conceptual Taep’o-dong-2 design variation appears to be the only correct suggestion remaining. However North Korea and Iran have acquired the advanced SS-N-6/SS-NX-13 derived No-dong-B technology. It is interesting to note that both Iran and North Korea have yet to show the No-dong-B publicly indicating their importance to the live real deployed arsenal. The technology of the No-dong-B was applied to the Taep’o-dong-2C/3 flight booster of July 4.5, 2006.

Ultimately Iran will have to redesign the upper stages of the original Taep’o-dong-2, Shahab-5 booster in order to improve its performance to meet the Shahab-6 requirements. This is because of its design aspect ratio, the length to diameter of each stage and the total vehicle length to diameter design and its upper stage mass fraction, the upper stages total structural mass as a function of the aspect ratio that should be minimized. It will also have to develop more powerful storable liquid propellant rocket engines beyond those they are now working with for Shahab-5. This will take Tehran five to seven years under the most optimum of conditions assuming it has the political will, economic vitality, facilities infrastructure, materials, in addition to the trained, educated and experienced personnel to support such an expensive effort of this magnitude. At this point it is far from being a credible threat to the United States. These redesign considerations became an accomplished fact with the No-dong-B introduction and the introductory flight test of the Taep’o-dong-2C/3 the Shahab-6 launch vehicle July 4/5, 2006 redesigned Taep’o-dong-2 class space booster, ICBM.

It was apparent during early 2002 that the original design considered for the Taep’o-dong-2/Shahab-5, 6 was going to have to undergo a radical redesign to meet the required performance desired by both North Korea and Iran . At the time during 2000-2001 the Shahab-6 was design study concept with a better mass fraction and aspect ratio than that of the Shahab-5 similar to the Taep’o-dong-2B three stage conceptual design. That is its upper stages will be shorter and larger in diameter similar to the Chinese CSS-3, and CSS-3A LRICBM. The second stage will probably be the same diameter as the first stage but only time would clarify these design issue. This is where Iran will finally start developing large missiles from scratch on its own beyond what it is doing with Shahab-5. It will take some years for this design of the Shahab-6 to manifest itself as the Shahab-5, Shahab-6 the Iranian variant of the North Korean Taep’o-dong-2 nears completion. Several design variations are possible. Thus the Shahab-6 has to be shorter and have larger diameter upper stages than those used in the Taep’o-dong-2 upper stages in order to be flyable.

On February 9, 2000, The Washington Times, disclosed the following information, “The [12] engines arrived in Iran on Nov. 21, (1999) after they were spotted being loaded aboard an Iran Air Boeing 747 cargo jet that left Suinan International Airfield about 12 miles north of-----Pyongyang (North Korea)”. These are the same engines used in No-dong MRBM.

The article went on to state that China is continuing to “sell missile technology to North Korea despite promises ---“, and that the North Koreans continue to prepare to flight test the Taep’o-dong-2 launch vehicle.

The article went on to describe several design alternatives for the use of the engines by Iran that could be used to create a Taep’o-dong-2 class booster. When considering the Shahab-5, 6 class booster they could utilize a new first stage equipped with multiple No-dong-A engines and a second stage equipped with one or more No-dong-A engines with a solid motor third stage and warhead. The final concept presented suggested a new first stage equipped with a Russian engine or engine cluster topped with a single or multiple No-dong-A engines for a second stage with a solid motor third stage with a warhead. Some of these alternative concepts would certainly address the original Taep'o-dong-2 mass fraction and stage aspect ratio problems but such improvements may have to wait for the introduction of the Shahab-6 launch vehicle. (3)

Some sources claim that the Russians are helping a solid-fuel design team at the Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group in Teheran develop a 2,800-mile range missile, capable of reaching London and Paris, and a 6,300-mile [10,000 km] range missile that could strike cities in the eastern United States. These reports are poorly documented and would appear to be highly speculative.

On August 6, 2003 a report by Sankei Shimbun cited military sources that indicated that North Korea was planning to export components of its Taepodong 2 missile to Iran where North Korean experts would assemble the components in a facility near Tehran. The negotiations between North Korea and Iran began sometime in 2002 and were expected to be completed in October 2003.

In May 2004 Middle East Newsline reported that Western intelligence sources Teheran had been negotiating with Pyongyang for the purchase of the Taep’o-dong-2 as Iran 's first intercontinental ballistic missile as well as a space launcher. It was also claimed that in 2003 North Korea had discussed the Taep’o-dong-2 with Libya and Syria , but neither country expressed serious interest.

On 16 February 2005 Vice Admiral Lowell E. Jacoby, U.S. Navy, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, testified that "We judge Iran will have the technical capability to develop an ICBM by 2015. It is not clear whether Iran has decided to field such a missile."

Six Years Later Perspective

However with the three separate programs having replaced the original Shahab-4/Taep’o-dong-1 program launch vehicle with the successful flights of the Shahab-3B on August 11, 2004 and the No-dong-B on January 17, 2006 as well as the new Ghadr-101. The subsequently July 5, 2006 flight test of the Taep’o-dong-2C/3 replaced the original design Taep’o-dong-2, 2A and 2B the Shahab-5, 6 launch vehicle design with an all new design launch vehicle in development for over seven years. No-dong-B had in fact been introduced into the North Korean inventory in 2003-2004 which was the precursor to the replacement Taep’o-dong-2C/3 design utilizing it airframe and propulsion design technology with a much higher performance system over the previous designs. One would think that with the less effective Taep’o-dong-1 design relegated to uselessness by the greater performance strategic and future satellite launch vehicle programs would have totally disappeared. That may be so but the only launch vehicle available for Iran today is the reworked up-rated Taep’o-dong-1A design to launch a less than 50 kilogram satellite into earth orbit since the Taep’o-dong-2C/3 is not nearly as ready as they would like it to be. The bottom line is that the propulsion system totally changed for the North Koreans and Iranians with the introduction of the No-dong-B, 3,218 - 4,000 kilometer range IRBM development completion and deployment which directly impacting the Shahab-4, 5, 6 programs back during the years 1998-2001. Taep’odong-2C/3 took over two and a part of a third North Korean five year plans to finally fly in the summer of 2006 when it was expected soon after the Taep’o-dong-1 launch on August 31, 1998 some time in the follow on five year plan during the middle years 2003-2004. There is only one reason for this and that is a total redesign and development of a new advance higher performance launch vehicle requiring an additional 5-7 years. In this particular case it would appear that the Taep’o-dong-2, 2A and 2B designs served as technology precursors developers for the follow Taep’o-dong-2C/3 final design launch vehicle. So, yes both Iran and North Korea did redirect its launch vehicle development. Shahab-6 is Taep’o-dong-2C/3 in all probability because there is no other alternative.

For further information on Shahab-6 see the Shahab-5 and Taep’o-dong-2 sections

References:

1. Seiff, Martin, “ Iran’s long range missile plans worry Netanyahu”, The Washington Times, 1 Oct.1998, pp. A13.

2. Timmerman, Kenneth, “ Iran’s deadly missile potential”, The Washington Times, 16, July 1999, pp. A15.

3. Gertz, Bill, “ N. Korea sells Iran missile engines”, The Washington Times, 9, Feb. 2000, pA1.