Doctrine
Iran’s national objectives and strategies are shaped by its regional political aspirations, threat perceptions, and the need to preserve its Islamic government. Tehran strives to be a leader in the Islamic world and seeks to be the dominant power in the Gulf. The latter goal brings it into conflict with the United States. Tehran would like to diminish Washington’s political and military influence in the region. Within the framework of its national goals, Iran continues to give high priority to expanding its NBC weapons and missile programs. Thus, in 1991 Ayatollah Mohajerani [one of President Rafsanjani’s deputies] said, "since the enemy has atomic capabilities, Islamic countries must be armed with the same capacity." However, the nuclear program appears to be a general hedge, to develop the nuclear option, rather than a crash program.
Iran’s national objectives and strategies are shaped by its regional political aspirations, threat perceptions, and the need to preserve its Islamic government.
- The primary rationale for Iran's nuclear weapons program was Iraq, though these fears probably retreated following the overthrough of Saddam Hussein. Iran viewed Baghdad as the primary regional threat, even though Iraq suffered extensive damage during the Gulf War. Iran remained unconvinced that Iraq’s NBC programs would be adequately restrained or eliminated through continued UN sanctions or monitoring. The Iranians believed that they will eventually face yet another challenge from their historical rival. The war with Iraq in the 1980s was the worst war in modern Middle Eastern history, and by the turn of the century Iran had still not recovered from the destruction and trauma of that conflict. The war exposed Iranian military and strategic weakness and vulnerability, for which a nuclear weapons capability could compensate. Iran’s emphasis on pursuing independent production capabilities for special weapons and missiles was driven by its experience during the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, during which it was unable to respond adequately to Iraqi chemical and missile attacks and suffered the effects of an international arms embargo.
- Secondarily, nuclear weapons could prove useful in deterring the United States, in the context of a profound crisis in the Persian Gulf. Tehran strives to be a leader in the Islamic world and seeks to be the dominant power in the Gulf. The latter goal brings it into conflict with the United States, and Tehran would like to diminish Washington’s political and military influence in the region. Iran fears that the sizable US military presence in the region could lead to an attack against Iran. These fears probably increased during the 2002-2004 period as a ring of new American bases in Iraq and central Asia encircled Iran with American power projection platform. The escalation of rhetoric by the Bush Administration surely did little to calm Iranian anxiety.
- An Iranian nuclear weapons capability could constitute a balance to Israel's nuclear posture. Iran is concerned by Israel’s strategic projection capabilities and its potential to strike Iran in a variety of ways.
The Iran-Iraq war was the greatest influence on Iran’s decision to pursue special weapons capabilities. Iran’s emphasis on pursuing independent production capabilities for NBC weapons and missiles is driven by its experience during the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, during which it was unable to respond adequately to Iraqi chemical and missile attacks and suffered the effects of an international arms embargo. Iran is not convinced that Iraq’s NBC programs will be adequately restrained or eliminated through continued UN sanctions or monitoring. Instead, the Iranians believe that they will face yet another challenge from their historical rival. Given difficulties in modernizing its conventional forces, Iran appears to be be working on special weapons as a deterrent against aggression.
Tehran probably views NBC weapons and the ability to deliver them with missiles as decisive weapons for battlefield use, as deterrents, and as effective means for political intimidation of less powerful neighboring states. Some have argued that Iran's understanding of military victory differs from that of the West, deriving from Islamic precepts of matyrdom and righteousness, and that consequently traditional threats of nuclear retaliation might not deter Iranian use of special weapons.
A resolution passed by the IAEA Board of Governors gave Iran an 31 October 2003 deadline to prove it had no secret atomic weapons program.
On 19 September 2003 the Substitute Leader of Tehran Friday Prayers and Secretary of the Guardians Council Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati called for Iran's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Turning to NPT additional protocol proposed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), he said however that it is up to the Iranian statesmen and mainly the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to make decision on the issue. "The treaty has been denounced by a number of countries. Although Iran has inked the NPT, it is free to withdraw from it anytime."
In a 25 June 2005 speech, Majlis Speaker Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel stressed that ethics, Islamic values and morals should accompany politics so the world will not witness injustice any more. Chemical weapons are products of scientific progress but such a progress should be accompanied by ethics, he said referring to the Iraqi-imposed war in 1980-1988 period which left hundreds of thousands of martyrs and disabled soldiers. He underlined the need to vindicate the rights of the chemically-wounded war veterans, saying that the catastrophe which took place in Iran should be announced to all people cross the globe as a criminal document of the big powers, a reference to the countries providing the then Iraqi government with chemical weapons during the war years. He reiterated that Western companies provided Iraq with chemical weapons, saying, "Iraq would not attack Iran should the Western companies did not give Iraq the green light?" The Iranian nation will go ahead its nuclear program, will not give it up and will defend the Islamic Republic decisively, he said.
