Tiangong-1 Shenzhou-8 & Shenzhou-9, 10 Mission
China’s Next Manned Spaceflight Program
© By Charles P. Vick (All Rights Reserved)
Senior Analyst, Globalsecurity.org
10-7-2008--04-17-09--9-2-09
Disclaimer The opinions and evaluations stated here in are only the authors and cannot be construed to reflect those of any government agency, company, institute or association. It is based on public information, circumstantial evidence, informed speculation, and official PRC Chinese government. As with all data regarding the Chinese space programs, this analysis is subject to revision--and represents a work in progress. It reflects the total open source analysis process and previous studies using the same information analysis process.
The Next Mission Tiangong-1, Man-tended Space Laboratory, Shenzhou-8 & Shenzhou-9, 10 during This Five Year Plan / 2011 Start Next F.Y.P.
So this shortened Shenzhou-7 flight with its primary EVA, multi-man crew mission demonstration is all a prelude of mission and future capability to come that must first be successfully accomplished before moving on to bigger and better earth orbital rendezvous operations as presently planned.
This is before going to the next planned phase two goal spacecraft docking mission with the unmanned automatic docking of the all up Tiangong 1 (Heavenly Palace-1) spacecraft laboratory module, & unmanned Shenzhou-8 missions to create the initial rudimentary space laboratory station called Tiangong-1 (several of which could be launched over the next five year plan), that will be crewed by the perhaps manned Shenzhou-9 & Shenzhou-10 missions if the docking of the unmanned Tiangong 1, and Shenzhou-8 is successful. Several of the Tiangong modules of approximately 8-8.5 metric ton (7,800 to 8,000-8,500 kgs) which are believed to be lengthened orbital modules with a front and perhaps possibly a rear docking port are expected to be heavier modules with no descent module attached but perhaps will be launched with unmanned Shenzhou type instrument propulsion module as a station module. This will accelerate the manned space platform program to phase three. This rudimentary manned space platform will be made up primarily from the derivation Shenzhou “ Tiangong 1” module and the docked Shenzhou-8, 9, & 10 spacecraft orbital modules which are independent spacecraft in their own right. Where and whether the second docking port is clearly the key to understanding their planning. This would portend the possibility of a yet to be proven Chinese capability to replace the stations instrument propulsion module as required. This however has yet to be clarified from the available released information.
Clearly something has been lost in all the speculation going around that has not looked at this realistically. Several major things give the answers along with one other realization. That is that the Chinese PRC manned space programs are a stretched out under funded multi pronged program to push the basic sciences and technology for themselves. Two the development of the Long March-5 program is a huge draw from the funds available for space programs. There is only so much that this and the next five year plan can handle based on the obvious limits to the discretionary funds. Three It is stipulated that only “ four launches will be done in two years” that was started in the present Five Year Plan 1-2006 through 1-2011 but will only start flying between the two five year plan 2006-2010/2011-2015. There is one and only one Tiangong module (launch in late 2010 fourth quarter) involved so far that will be launched with a rapid succession launch of Shenzhou 8, (launch in 2011) the two more launches Shenzhou-9 & 10 missions in sequence expected in the 2011-2012 time frame). Four the total stations life space is two years but that is dependent on the rate of the utilization of the expendables. Five is that once Tiangong 1 is launched the three Shenzhou 8, 9 &10 spacecraft will “ be launched with in a month of each other” in a series of rapid succession two launch operations not previously seen but built into the launch facility infrastructure’s capability. None of these Tiangong modules will dock together as presently envisioned.
Certainly the combination as envisioned will incorporate 10 and 15 day and perhaps up to 20 or 30 day mission duration capability. There should be no confusion about the Tiangong-1 module technological design because it has perhaps two docking ports one in front definitely identified and perhaps one in the rear (not identified) connected to its launch instrument propulsion module. It should also be clear at some point one of the Shenzhou orbital modules will have to be jettisoned to make way for the next manned crew docking because the orbital modules and instrument propulsion modules are being used perhaps as interchangeable service modules in addition to the man tended Shenzhou spacecraft that utilize the orbital modules docked to the small spacecraft space lab. By doing things this way China will be able to demonstrate the kind of logistic support required for long duration operations in both manned and unmanned modes. In many respects the Tiangong -1 remins us of the unmanned Progress resupply spacecraft hardware operations concept. The replenishment supplies will be carried by Shenzhou-8 for the Shenzhou-9 and Shenzhou-10 crew stay periods. Close study of the hardware suggest that the Shenzhou orbital module could be equipped with a hatch between the descent module and the interior of the orbital module. How all this work in sequence is amazingly simple and ingenious in it simple design approach if that is indeed the intent and design being developed but not yet confirmed?
Suggested Tiangong-1, Shenzhou-8 & Shenzhou-9, 10 Mission Sequences
1. First launch the unmanned small spacecraft Tiangong-1 space laboratory module with its Shenzhou class instrument propulsion module with its own solar arrays in late 2010 near the end of the present five year plan.
2. This will be followed by the unmanned launch and automatic docking demonstration of the Shenzhou-8 spacecraft. It orbital module can serve as an instrument propulsion module for the Tiangong-1 module if it jettisons its own instrument propulsion module. That unmanned Shenzhou-8 orbital module or the Shenzhou-9 will bring up the supplies for the two manned missions to follow as well as preserve the Tiangong-1 expendable supplies.
3. The subsequent manned or unmanned Shenzhou-9 and manned Shenzhou-10 will also use their orbital modules to bring up supplies in sequence and to serve as instrument propulsion modules.
4. Once the Shenzhou-8 descent module and instrument propulsion module have parted its orbital module can serve temparily as an instrument propulsion module for the Tiangong-1 module.
5. In a series of rapid succession manned mission launched within a month of one another the unmanned or manned Shenzhou-9 missions the Shenzhou-10 manned spacecraft will demonstrate manned docking and operation of the Tiangong-1 module space laboratory.
6. As they near the end of their Shenzhou-9 mission the Shenzhou-10 manned spacecraft will be launched and the now empty Shenzhou-9 orbital module full of trash will be jettisoned opening up the port for the Shenzhou-10 spacecraft docking.
7. Either before or soon after the Shenzhou-10 docking the Shenzhou-9 descent module with its instrument propulsion module will depart perhaps leaving the Shenzhou-9 orbital module to serve as an instrument propulsion module.
8. After the completion of the Shenzhou-10 mission the crew will return using heir instrument propulsion module and descent module leaving the Shenzhou-10 orbital module to control the Tiangong-1 module to the end of it design life.
9. The Tiangong-II and Tiangong-III modules are expected to be flown in similar manners with follow up manned Shenzhou-11 through Shenzhou-14 missions with derivation resupply spacecraft fully demonstrating the mastery of rendezvous and docking technology in addition to extended length manned missions through resupply operations. These mission will extend the Tiangong - Shenzhou missions program through 2015.
Thus this space laboratory module program will have demonstrated docking, re-supply, endurance and most of all interchangeable hand off of the service control modules in perhaps two forms besides the manned tended space laboratory operations for its multiple intentions
The Shenzhou-10 spacecraft is expected to carry a two man crew. Each of these Shenzhou spacecraft launches are expected to be carried out in something under a month between each launch since the Tiangong 1 station module has a design life of two year depending on the rate of use of expendables and crewing . There is expected to be some lapse of time between the Shenzhou-9 and Shenzhou-10 spacecraft missions.
Chinese planning seems to indicate the intent to maintain a contingency Shenzhou-9 mission depending on the Shenzhou-8 docking performance. If Shenzhou-8 is successful then that could clear the way for a manned Shenzhou-9 mission but definitely Shenzhou-10 will be manned. Additional Tiangong class module and Shenzhou missions are not yet fully defined like these first four launches but they may be planned for the post Tiangong-1 operations with a newer module and the subsequent multiple Shenzhou spacecraft launches with in the next five year plan 2011-2015. This remains unconfirmed as they seem to indicate that the post Tiangong-1 effort will be refocused on the permanent Salyut class space station effort because of the economic and technological issues with the larger space station and LM-5 programs.
That is a total of three Shenzhou spacecraft one unmanned and two manned and the unmanned Tiangong 1 module. That initial program will end in the first two year of the next five year plan. The earth orbital assembly docking of the unmanned Tiangong 1 module and subsequent three Shenzhou spacecraft number 8, 9 & 10 is tentatively scheduled for launch within this five year plan in 2010 or the first year of the next five year plan 2011. The unmanned Tiangong 1 docking with the unmanned Shenzhou-8 spacecraft will be the initial demonstrate of the technological know how to establish the rudimentary space station within this five year plan. It is to be followed by the docking of the Shenzhou-9 manned spacecraft to finally establish the rudimentary small manned spacecdraft laboratory for longer duration scientific missions. Soon afterwards with the next manned Shenzhou-10 manned spacecraft launch the second crew manning of the space laboratory will take place as the mission planned durations are carried out. This is expected to serve as a demonstration longer duration manned mission as a military reconnaissance platform among other task that could be facilitated. Previous models of the Shenzhou spacecraft have been utilized for this purpose from the observed on board equipment.
References:
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11. China astronauts return as heroes after historic spacewalk, by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Spacedaily.com, Sept 28, 2008 , pp. 1-3. http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/China_astronauts_return_as_heroes_after_historic_spacewalk_999.html
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