The Australian September 4, 2003
New attacks on planes 'inevitable'
By Steve Creedy
TERRORISM experts believe it is only a matter of time until there's another attempt to destroy a commercial jet using shoulder-fired missiles, and warn that little can be done to defend airports.
And they are not discounting the possibility of multiple strikes on different continents in an attempt to cripple an already wounded aviation industry.
"I think it's been a low-hanging fruit for some time," said John Pike, a former defence analyst with the Federation of American Scientists and now director of US-based GlobalSecurity.org.
"You do it on multiple airports on multiple continents and people won't fly."
Security forces have known for years about the threat to airliners from the missiles, known as man-portable air defence systems, or MANPADS.
But until recently, most of those were in remote war zones. That changed last year with a failed attack on an Israeli Boeing 757 in Kenya using weapons with serial numbers matching those launched against US warplanes in Saudi Arabia.
The problem, according to Mr Pike and others, is the availability of the weapons and the people willing to use them.
At least 24 terrorist organisations are believed to possess the missiles. Attempts to stamp out the black market in the missiles have proven unsuccessful. US reports suggest older-style missiles are available for as little as $US5000 ($7840), with more sophisticated models going for up to $US50,000.
Rigorous intelligence gathering is seen as the main obstacle facing terrorists trying to bring the missiles into Australia unnoticed. A good example of this was the arrest in New Jersey last month of British arms dealer Hemant Lakhani after a successful sting operation involving the FBI and Russian intelligence. Mr Lakhani had allegedly tried to buy a missile for an agent posing as a terrorist.
At less than 2m long and weighing less than 20kg, smuggling missile tubes through some remote section of coastline would not be difficult.
Airports such as Sydney woule be virtually indefensible, according to Jane's Defence Weekly Australian correspondent Ian Bostock.
Bostock said the background clutter of the urban environment made it impossible to detect these kinds of launch systems.
"You could literally open up the back of a panel van, step out and fire one of these things," he said.
The problem is further compounded by a shallow approach that means aircraft are in effective range of MANPADS, of up to 8km, for many kilometres.
Bostock believes it would be hard for a trained operator to miss a target as big as an airliner. "It's like a block of flats almost, it's hard to miss," he said. "As long as you keep your cool, and you're able to keep your sights on the target, most of the time you're going to get a hit on a civilian aircraft."
Attempts are now under way in the US and Israel to develop a system capable of knocking a a missile off course by shooting a laser or infrared beam at it. Australia's Defence Science and Technology Organisation is also asking the Government to fast-track a compact laser system called MURLIN, which is understood to have developed to the prototype stage.
But Bostock said an aircraft landing or taking off would get little warning of a missile streaking towards it at 1800km/h.
MANPADS
Man-portable air defence systems
* Launched from the shoulder, MANPADS such as the SA-7 are 1.4m long, weigh 14.5kg and take about 6secs to fire
* With an effective range of up to 5500m, maximum altitude of 4500m and a maximum speed of 1250km/h, the SA-7 uses infrared sensors to lock on to heat sources such as engines
* MANPADS can be fused to detonate on contact or when close to their target
* More advanced MANPADS have an effective range of 18km and top speed of 1800km/h
© Copyright 2003, Nationwide News Pty Limited
