U.S.-Japan Relations
During the 2016 US presidential campaign, Donald Trump was very critical of America’s military allies South Korea and Japan, accusing them of not bearing enough of the financial burden for forces stationed in their countries. Trump suggested he would pull troops and allow allies in the region to develop their own nuclear weapons if they did not agree to pay the US more for protection. Trump sent shockwaves across the globe after replying in an interview with US media in March that he will not rule out using tactical nuclear weapons against Islamic State militants. On another occasion, he suggested Japan could acquire nuclear weapons to counter threats from North Korea.
Japanese government officials said they will aim to build a relationship of trust with the incoming US administration under President-elect Donald Trump. They said they believe the strong ties cultivated by Japan and the United States will remain basically unchanged no matter who becomes the next US president. However, they said Trump's foreign and security policies were not necessarily clear and they will keep a close eye on the foreign policy stance the incoming administration takes. People in the atomic-bombed city of Hiroshima are keeping an eye on the nuclear policy US President-elect Donald Trump will unveil. And Yoshimitsu Kobayashi, the Chairman of the Japan Association of Corporate Executives, expressed concern over the impact of a Trump presidency on the country's economy. He said if Trump took a protectionist stance as pledged in his campaign, it would have a major impact on Japanese stocks and the currency market.
Donald Trump expressed his commitment to the security of Japan in accordance with the bilateral security treaty. Trump spoke at a news conference with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe following their first summit at the White House on 10 February 2017. Trump said the US-Japan alliance is the cornerstone of peace and stability in the Pacific region. He said the United States is committed to the security of Japan and all areas under its administrative control. The 2 leaders affirmed that the bilateral security treaty covers the Senkaku Islands.
Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida described discussions between the leaders of Japan and the US as thorough and substantial. He said the meeting between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Donald Trump provided a good opportunity to proclaim the unshakable Japan-US alliance to the world. Kishida said that administration changes had not altered the perception by both countries that the stability of the Asia-Pacific region, including the East and South China Seas, is vital. He said Japan will carry out its role for that purpose with cooperation with the United States. He also indicated that the countries will hold a meeting of their foreign and defense ministers soon.
Donald Trump gave vent to his dissatisfaction with the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the US and Japan at a press conference after the G20 summit on 29 June 2019 - "Look, if somebody attacks Japan, we go after them and we are in a battle - full force in effect… If somebody should attack the United States, they don't have to do that. That's unfair." But he added he was not thinking of withdrawing from the pact. Trump's tirade against the treaty may not make Abe worry, instead raising hopes that US withdrawal from the pact would unshackle Japan from the restraints of Washington's oversight and grant it more military autonomy.
Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru looked to strengthen ties with the US after Donald Trump's victory. But others in the country are concerned over the effects the new president will have on business. He congratulated Donald Trump over the phone on 07 November 2024. Ishiba told Trump he respects the fact that his campaign to "make America great again" gained support from many Americans. Trump responded that he looked forward to talking with Ishiba in person, and the two confirmed they will try to schedule a meeting as soon as possible.
Ishiba later spoke to reporters about the conversation. He said he got the impression that Trump is friendly and that he could speak with him frankly, without using fancy words. Ishiba was asked how he would respond if Trump asks Japan to shoulder a greater cost to keep US forces in the country. He responded that the issue is complicated and involves various financial and operational problems. He added he would engage in discussions from various perspectives to bolster the alliance.
Earlier, a senior Japanese foreign ministry official said that Trump knows Japan strengthened its defense capabilities in his first term as president. Another foreign ministry official said he is focusing on who Trump will appoint after taking office.
Tokyo's benchmark stock index ended lower despite a strong rally on Wall Street overnight. All three major indices in the US posted record highs following Trump's projected win in the presidential election. The Nikkei 225 finished at 39,381, down a quarter of a percent. It briefly jumped 1 percent after the open. But some investors sold their shares to lock in profits. Analysts say many investors are carefully assessing what the former president's return to the White House will mean for the global economy. Trump has pledged tax cuts and steep tariffs on imports.
The Chairman of the Japan Business Federation or Keidanren, Tokura Masakazu, said he hopes Ishiba "will establish a close relationship with Trump, as the late Abe Shinzo did, and further develop bilateral ties." The chairperson of the Japan Association of Corporate Executives, Niinami Takeshi, echoed this by saying Ishiba needs to meet Trump as soon as possible to build a personal relationship. Niinami said the US will highly likely become more focused on domestic affairs, and that Japan will need new foreign policies based on this change. The head of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Kobayashi Ken, said he hopes Trump will make contributions to building a global order for peace and stability. He said this will be achieved by taking advantage of experience from his previous term as president.
Under a Trump administration, some Japanese companies will likely be forced to review their management strategies. While Trump was still running for president, NHK asked a number of Japanese firms what they planned to do if he was elected. Kanomax Japan Inc., an Osaka company with production and sales bases in the United States and China, manufactures measuring equipment related to automobiles and semiconductors. When Trump took office as president in 2017, he raised tariffs to 25 percent on measuring equipment exported from China to the US. That significantly increased the company's expenses as it was unable to pass on the costs by raising prices.
Kanomax also said a Chinese firm that wanted to buy its semiconductor-related measuring equipment suspended negotiations after it told the firm the equipment was made at a factory in the US. Now, the company is bracing for effects from the incoming US president's trade policy on its management strategy, and plans to review its production system. A senior official at the company said he likes to keep in close contact with its local subsidiary and review the production process. He said they hope the new president would not turn inward and will instead promote policies that will help the world reconcile.
The possibility of Trump winning the election also had Japanese automakers worried about tariffs. Trump previously said that if he returned to the presidency, he would impose 100 percent tariffs on all cars produced in Mexico and exported to the US. A Honda factory in Mexico exports around 80 percent of cars produced there to the US. Honda's vice president Aoyama Shinji said that if high tariffs are imposed in the short term, it will have a major impact on the company. Aoyama said he needs to take some measures, but he can't transfer production to the US or other countries immediately. He said he wants to develop the business while monitoring the situation.
Meanwhile, Japanese engineering giant IHI's president, Ide Hiroshi, said there could be positive and negative aspects to Trump's return, but overall, it would have no major impact. He said he thinks that at least it will have no significant effect on fighter-jet engines and defense missiles as Japan and the US jointly develop them.
During the US presidential election, NHK spoke to Nishihama Toru, Chief Economist at Dai-ichi Life Research, to get his views on how Asia could be affected if Trump was elected. Nishihama said he was especially concerned about how a Trump win would impact China and other Asian countries. He said Trump was saying that the US will impose 60 percent tariffs on all imports from the world's second-largest economy. He said, "If this really happens, then I would estimate that would reduce China's GDP growth rate by 1.7 percentage points." He also said this is as Trump has been promoting his "America First" policy and pushing for protectionist measures on trade.
Nishihama said anti-China policies were strengthened even during the four years of the Biden administration and that the landscape of global trade has changed. He said the worldwide move toward de-risking the supply chain is irreversible. He said, "the conflict between the US and China will go on. So in this situation, the push to shift supply chains to other Asian countries from China will certainly continue." Nishihama said that while moving factories from China to other parts of the region sounds like a positive for Beijing's competitors, such countries should also be cautious. He mentioned there was a move to process Chinese raw materials in other Asian countries and ship them to the United States. He added that during the former Trump Administration, there was a drive to impose punitive tariffs on these goods, too. Nishihama said that in this context, there should be concern among smaller regional countries that help accommodate Chinese exports to the US, and that "if Trump becomes president again, US punitive measures could target them."
Mimaki Toshiyuki is a co-chair of Nihon Hidankyo, a group of atomic bomb survivors who won the Nobel Peace Prize this year. He spoke to NHK as vote counting was underway. He expressed concern that the US conducted nuclear tests under US President Joe Biden and the previous Trump administration. He said he doesn't want nuclear weapons to be used in any circumstances and he wants the US to carry out policies that don't use them and to become a country that builds peace.
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