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Belarus Color Revolution

The political situation in Belarus, including any potential regime change, is a complex and evolving topic. Belarus was under the leadership of President Alexander Lukashenko, who had been in power since 1994. In recent years, Belarus had faced significant political unrest and protests following the disputed presidential elections in August 2020, which led to allegations of electoral fraud and a widespread crackdown on dissent. The protests were met with a heavy-handed response from the authorities, resulting in human rights concerns and international condemnation.

During the 2006 protests, some called it the "Jeans Revolution" or "Denim Revolution," blue jeans being considered a symbol for freedom. Some protesters cut up jeans into ribbons and hung them in public places. Lukashenko had said in the past: "In our country, there will be no pink or orange, or even banana revolution." He further said, "They [the West] think that Belarus is ready for some 'orange' or, what is a rather frightening option, 'blue' or 'cornflower blue' revolution. Such 'blue' revolutions are the last thing we need". On 19 April 2005, he further commented: "All these coloured revolutions are pure and simple banditry."

Efforts to bring about political change in Belarus have primarily been focused on advocating for democracy, respect for human rights, and the rule of law. The European Union, United States, and other international actors have imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials and entities in response to the political situation and human rights abuses.

US policy towards Belarus, like any foreign policy, had evolved over time based on developments on the ground and broader geopolitical considerations. The United States had been actively involved in the political developments in Belarus and had taken a stance against the Lukashenko regime.

The United States had consistently expressed support for the principles of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law in Belarus. It had condemned the crackdown on peaceful protests, the suppression of dissent, and the lack of free and fair elections. The U.S. had called for the release of political prisoners and the respect of civil liberties in Belarus.

The US, along with the European Union and other international partners, had imposed targeted sanctions on Belarusian officials and entities responsible for human rights abuses, election fraud, and repression of dissent. These sanctions include travel bans, asset freezes, and restrictions on financial transactions. The aim is to put pressure on the Lukashenko regime and to encourage a change in behavior.

The US had provided support to civil society organizations, independent media outlets, and opposition groups in Belarus. This assistance aims to bolster democratic institutions, promote human rights, and empower the voices of those advocating for change in the country.

Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka accused the West of attempting "to destroy our country" by ignoring the results of last month's election, an accusation opposition leaders rejected, saying the authoritarian leader himself is to blame for current protests sparked by his falsifying of the balloting after nearly three decades of rule.

Thousands of people had been detained and beaten by police while nearly all the opposition's key leaders have been forced to leave the country or been arrested over their demonstrations against the election results, which gave Lukashenka just over 80 percent of the vote. Opposition leaders have accused the authoritarian leader of vote rigging, which he denied.

In a speech to senior officials and state-run media outlets on 16 September 2020, Lukashenka said that the ongoing protests questioning his victory in the August 9 vote were organized by the United States and "its satellites -- Poland, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, and unfortunately, Ukraine," who tried to organize a so-called "color revolution" with the goal of "violating our sovereignty and even our territorial integrity."

In September 2021 the Russian Security Service [FSB] declared that they confirmed the main objective of a Western covert operation was to break relations between Moscow and Minsk. indicates that the CIA helped Ukraine to organize the detention of 33 Russian citizens in Belarus in 2020, which they suspected Belarusian law enforcement agencies—were part of the Russian private military company Wagner Group and were trying to organize mass riots in the country.

An FSB representative stated that the outlet "objectively showed the role of the CIA in preparing and carrying out [the operation], showed that it was a joint operation with the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the Security of Ukraine". He indicated that the Ukrainian services lured the Russians into their territory and tried to convince the Belarusian State Security Agency that these people were planning to participate in mass riots.

After the arrest of the Russians at the end of July 2020, the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, called an urgent meeting of the country's Security Council. The ambassadors of Russia and Ukraine were summoned to the Belarusian Foreign Ministry. The Russian ambassador in Minsk, Dmitry Mezentsev, claimed that the Russian citizens detained in Belarus were in the transit country . "The attempt to present what happened as external interference in the affairs of the republic causes, to say the least, bewilderment," the Russian Foreign Ministry said at the time.

After the arrest of the people in question, the Ukrainian president, Vladimir Zelensky, requested that they be handed over to kyiv, but his Belarusian counterpart refused to do so. In mid-August, the Russian Prosecutor General's Office reported that 32 of the 33 detained Russian citizens returned to their country. The other man also had Belarusian citizenship and was therefore not handed over to the Russian authorities.

This account is a deliberate distortion of the original CNN article, which described an alleged Ukrainian intelligence operation to lure several Wagner members to leave Russia in order to arrest them. This disinformation narrative aimed to frame the alleged Ukrainian operation as a CIA-led plot aimed against Belarus and Russia.

As CNN explained thoroughly, the actual goal of the alleged sting was to trick Russian combatants who had taken part in the war in Eastern Ukraine and were considered war criminals by Kyiv to travel abroad, so they could be arrested and put on trial. The original plan was to have them travelling through Turkey, but the pandemic forced them to leave Russia via Minsk, which derailed the operation: when Belarusian security services discovered the presence of 33 Russian military contractors in a luxury resort outside Minsk, they proceeded to arrest them.

“According to the Ukrainian intelligence officials, the Ukrainian-led operation got US cash, technical assistance and advice from the CIA on how to draw the Russian mercenaries in. A senior US official told CNN those claims were ‘false.’ He indicated US intelligence was aware of the operation but denied any involvement. The official (...) suggested efforts to implicate US agencies may be an attempt to share, or even pass, blame for what was a high-risk Ukrainian operation that went wrong.”

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko issued a warning that Western regimes — including that of Ukraine — were preparing to carry out a coup d’etat against him. At a meeting of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) security chiefs on 01 May 2023, Lukashenko cautioned that a “violent regime change is being prepared” against Minsk. “In Poland, Lithuania and, unfortunately, Ukraine, illegal members of armed groups are being trained,” he warned, adding that trained operatives are in the process of creating “extremist sleeper cells” which could soon be activated in Belarus.

In contrast to their unsuccessful and largely bloodless color revolution attempted in 2020, Western governments were now training and funding the opposition to engage in armed violence, the president alleged. “This fact means that they won’t leave us alone,” he noted.

The remarks came a week after an influential figure in the Polish military sphere publicly called for the dissident Belarusians currently fighting on behalf of the Zelensky regime to be unleashed on Minsk in the event of a successful counteroffensive in Ukraine. During a 34 May 2023 television interview with a national channel, former top Polish general Waldemar Skrzypczak urged officials in Warsaw to “prepare for an uprising in Belarus,” insisting such a scenario “will happen.”

“We must be ready to support the troops that will carry out the operation against Lukashenko,” Skrzypczak insisted. “We have reasons to help them, just as we help Ukraine,” claimed the general, who previously served as a deputy minister in the Polish Ministry of Defense.

In response to the general’s remarks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov pointed out that Russia had a legal obligation to safeguard Belarusian security — which “we will fulfill in the face of such blatant threats,” he said.

Belarusian officials took the threats seriously. “In Poland, Lithuania and, unfortunately, in Ukraine, members of illegal armed groups were being trained, attempts were being made to create dormant extremist cells directly in the country. We see it. We will not allow this,” President Alexander Lukashenko said in early June 2023. He also stressed that Minsk notes an unprecedented concentration of troops on the borders with Belarus.

In March 2023, Lukashenka said that in all the years of independence, the security situation had never been so alarming and threatening. “We were taken seriously. Behind the cordon, militants are being trained from among the fugitives, on whose hump NATO plans to climb into us and arrange a military mess, ”he noted.

Belarusian special services periodically report on the prevention of terrorist attacks and the detention of saboteurs. In March, the KGB reported on the elimination of an armed foreigner in Grodno who was preparing to commit a terrorist attack. The department claimed that during the arrest, the man resisted with a machine gun and live grenades. According to a number of circumstantial evidence, the deceased could have been preparing an assassination attempt on the head of the Grodno region, Vladimir Karanik.

In April 2023, it became known that about 30 people were detained for an attempted sabotage at the Machulishchi airfield . Among them was the Ukrainian Mykola Shvets, who admitted that he was recruited by the SBU. In May, Belarusian special services reported that a terrorist attack had been prevented on the eve of Victory Day . KGB Chairman Ivan Tertel said that the attackers wanted to “stir up the situation” in this way. It was noted that the curator of the terrorists was in Kyiv.

Against this background, Minsk had strengthened border control . According to the opposition press, checks were being carried out at checkpoints on the line of contact with Lithuania and Poland. Security forces not only interview people arriving in the country and inspect their belongings, but also study the contents of their phones: they look at photos, the list of contacts and subscriptions in instant messengers. It is reported that several dozen people were not allowed into the country following the results of checks.

In early June 2023, special forces and paratroopers were involved in this work. To identify saboteurs, they use drones, thermal imagers and night vision devices. Additional tactical missile systems and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) were also deployed on the western borders of Belarus.

The country's armed forces were being strengthened. The military budget for 2023 had grown by one and a half times, the costs for the rest of the security forces - by a third. New special forces units were being formed; over the past six months, the Lynx, Smerch and Berkut detachments have appeared. Active interaction with the Russian side also continues. In June, Minsk received the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system. In early July, the construction of a storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons will be completed on the western border of the country, after which the deployment of weapons will begin. Moscow will control it , but for Lukashenka this will still become an additional guarantee of security.

The security situation in Belarus remained tense. The British newspaper The Times published an article stating that hundreds of radicals from among the fugitive Belarusian oppositionists were undergoing combat training in Poland. The militants have been training at the training ground in Poznan for several months. The instructors were members of the BYPOL organization, which was created by former employees of the Belarusian special services.

It is reported that the radicals expect to "return home" in order to "fight the Lukashenka regime." “States have never gained freedom without bloodshed,” one of the militants with the call sign Ded told reporters. “My daughter doesn't know I'm here. I told her that I went to play paintball. But in fact, I decided to prepare for the battle for Belarus, ”said the woman with the call sign Predator.

At the same time, the former Deputy Minister of Defense of Poland, Waldemar Skrzypczak, spoke about a possible "uprising". According to the general, the Belarusians who were participating in the hostilities in Ukraine will at some point try to return to their homeland. “I hope this will cause an uprising in Belarus, Lukashenka is afraid of this,” Skshipchak said. He also stressed that Warsaw would have to help the Belarusian militants, "as it is now helping the Ukrainians."

A characteristic statement was also made by the leader of the Belarusian opposition Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. In an interview with Ukrainian television, she said that she could turn to Zelensky with a request to send troops to Belarus. According to her, the opposition's own forces will not be enough to overthrow Lukashenka. “I realize that only Kalinovtsy (militants from the so-called Kalinovsky battalion, fighting on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. - Ed.) will not be enough. <…> We will need both international support and support from Ukraine,” she said.

In parallel, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine registered a draft resolution on the recognition of Belarus, along with Russia, as an aggressor country. The authors want the government of Ukraine to terminate diplomatic relations with a neighboring state and demand reparations and compensation for the damage allegedly suffered by Kiev. On June 22, Volodymyr Zelensky also dismissed the Ukrainian Ambassador to Belarus, Igor Kizim, without explanation, without appointing a successor.

Political scientist Dmitry Rodionov believed that the aggravation of the situation in Belarus is quite real. "The main striking force can be the fugitive Belarusian oppositionists who have gained combat experience in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We do not know the exact number of these people, we are talking about at least several hundred people. They may try to enter Belarus from Ukraine or from Poland. In this case, the tasks will not be the commission of some sabotage. Plans will be much more global. For example, they will try to seize territories in the border regions of the Brest or Grodno regions."

He added that destabilization attempts can be made when the situation of the Ukrainian army seriously deteriorates. For example, the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will run out of steam. "The opening of the "second front" in Belarus will allow Ukrainian propagandists to kill the negative information background, to declare another "victory". In addition, Russia will have to divert some of its troops to help an ally, Rodionov emphasizes.

Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believed that the situation will not worsen in the near future. "The West, Ukraine and the Belarusian opposition are constantly working to destabilize the situation in Belarus. This, in general, is not hidden by anyone. The ultimate goal is to overthrow the current president of the country and reformat the entire political regime. At the same time, I would not say that now is some kind of critical moment. The system looks quite stable, the security forces are in control of the situation. I do not expect a sharp destabilization in Belarus,” he said.