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GAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 106
Chapter 7
International Cooperation
Japan is not participating with other governments on
air-breathing aerospace research and development efforts. Japan
currently has no plans for international cooperation. However,
Japanese government and industry officials believe that
developing an aerospace plane will ultimately require an
international effort. Japan wants to first raise its technology
level to international standards before seeking international
cooperation.
Japanese government officials and industry representatives
expressed interest in cooperating with the United States on the
NASP Program. They also expressed reservations about cooperative
ventures with the United States based, in part, on barriers that
include Japan's lack of experience in hypersonics, Japan's
constitutional prohibitions against the military use of space,
fundamental differences in U.S. and Japanese aerospace plane
programs, and strict U.S. export controls on the transfer of
technology. Currently, NASP Program officials do not anticipate
seeking international cooperation in developing and demonstrating
the X-30. However, according to U.S. government and industry
officials, areas in which Japanese technology might be
incorporated in the NASP Program include advanced propulsion and
advanced materials.
The United States is ahead of Japan in developing the
technologies for an air-breathing single-stage-to-orbit aerospace
plane. However, a significant international collaborative effort
to build an aerospace plane involving Japan, France, Germany, the
United Kingdom, and/or the Soviet Union could be competitive with
the NASP Program.
U.S./Japanese Cooperation
The High Commissioner of the Space Activities Commission believes space development inherently requires international cooperation and that Japan will promote international cooperation through an appropriate contribution. The High Commissioner indicated Japan is not developing its aerospace plane technology base independently. One U.S. hypersonics expert suggested Japan is first developing the technology for a broad range of applications before seeking international cooperation. The High Commissioner of the Space Activities Commission told us that development of a Japanese aerospace plane will be an international effort, and not purely a Japanese effort, due to the lack of Japanese technology and funding. A Ministry of International Trade and Industry official said it would be in the best interest for Japan and the United States to join in the development of an aerospace plane and share theGAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 107 benefits of cooperative development. Several Japanese government officials stated the burden on any one country to have its own aerospace plane development program would be too great, even for the United States. The National Space Development Agency of Japan's Director for Program Planning told us if Japan wants to be an equal partner in building an aerospace plane, then it will need to develop an experimental aerospace plane by itself for proper contribution to the partnership so that Japan will not be treated as a minor partner. Ministry officials said Japan is ready to collaborate with the United States and other countries on a Mach 2 to 5 supersonic transport aircraft in the areas of technology, manpower, and funding. The Japanese believe the cost of developing the next-generation commercial supersonic and hypersonic transport aircraft will also require an international consortium. Japan plans to play a major role in any future consortium and has already begun research and development on advanced materials and propulsion as two areas in which Japan could make significant contributions. Although the United States continually assesses the possibility and desirability of international cooperation in developing and building the X-30, NASP Program officials have not developed a formal strategy or written policy regarding international cooperation. NASP Program officials have not actively sought international cooperation. However, in September 1988 the NASP Program Director stated that program officials have begun exploring collaboration with foreign countries and that it is very clear the United States is in the lead in technology. In September and October 1988, members from the NASP Joint Program Office Fact Finding Group representing the NASP Joint Program Office, Office of Science and Technology Policy, McDonnell Douglas Corporation, and Rockwell International Corporation visited France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan to (1) exchange information about the status of and plans for spaceplane development in Europe, Japan, and the United States, (2) understand the problems and technical barriers to spaceplane development, and (3) explore specific technical areas for possible use on NASP or for possible collaborative development. After these visits, and based on other assessments, the NASP Program Director ruled out joint development of the X-30 with any one country. Currently, no discussions are being held on international collaboration for designing and developing the X-30. U.S. officials believe the United States is still ahead in developing enabling hypersonic technologies,
GAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 108 some of which may have significant commercial applications in the future. The Acting Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy stated in July 1989 that any sharing of technology will be judged on how the technology would benefit the parties, not on whether the technology would reduce costs. The National Space Council considered the possibility of international cooperation on the NASP Program. However, most Council members believe NASP should remain a national program, since aerospace technology is one of the few remaining areas in which the United States has a positive balance of trade (about $26.9 billion in 1990 and an estimated $37.1 billion in 1991, according to the Department of Commerce). As of September 1991, the NASP Program Director did not anticipate that the NASP Program would seek international partners. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has frequent contacts with foreign aerospace vehicle program managers, scientists, and engineers. It utilizes foreign expertise and monitors foreign programs through existing data exchange agreements. NASP airframe contractors do not favor international cooperation. They believe the United States is far ahead in hypersonics and that Europe and Japan would have little to offer. However, some subcontracting has occurred with Japanese companies through traditional partnerships. If U.S. government funding for the NASP Program diminishes, then U.S. industry may reconsider seeking foreign support, according to U.S. industry representatives. Germany and Japan are considered the most probable possibilities by U.S. industry, since their commitment to hypersonic programs appears strong. If U.S. government funding for NASP diminishes, U.S. industry officials are concerned that any collaborative agreement may be difficult to achieve because of U.S. export controls on the transfer of technology. According to U.S. and foreign government officials and industry representatives, advantages of international cooperation in the NASP Program include the sharing of technical data and information, expertise, and approaches; having access to greater resources, such as test facilities; sharing costs; reducing or eliminating duplication; and increasing the market size. Disadvantages include inherent difficulties in different program goals and objectives, concepts, and size; sharing technology; sharing ownership; difficulties in integrating diverse national bureaucracies; delays in reaching decisions due to differing political and legal systems; complications resulting from different decision processes, priorities, and competencies; political inertia, which may make projects
GAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 109 hard to start and even harder to stop; competition for funding with countries' other national and international commitments; a tendency to undertake low-priority projects only; conflicts between cooperation and competition; and a decreasing market share.
Barriers to Cooperation With the United States
According to Japanese government officials and industry representatives, barriers to Japanese cooperation with the United States on the NASP Program include Japan's lack of experience in hypersonics; the perception that NASP is a military program; Japan's constitutional prohibitions against the military use of space; potential military applications of a future NASP-derived operational vehicle; differences in the objectives, size, schedule, and level of technology maturation of U.S. and Japanese aerospace plane programs; a reluctance by the United States to share its technology, most recently demonstrated during negotiations on U.S. Japanese codevelopment of the Support Fighter (FS-X) experimental air plane;[1] and strict U.S. export controls on the transfer of technology. National Space Development Agency of Japan officials told us the Japanese constitution as well as a Japanese Diet (Parliament) resolution states that "Japan will only pursue space activities for peaceful purposes." Japanese government officials interpret this prohibition as meaning no military activities in space development. U.S. officials suggested this prohibition means no offensive weapons in space. Kawasaki officials expressed concern that U.S. test facilities may not be available due to scheduling conflicts and heavy use by the NASP Program. Mitsubishi program managers expressed concern that the X-30 is a Department of Defense-funded program incorporating technology that has both military and commercial use. The Japanese government would have great difficulty politically participating in a program that has both civilian and military applications, since space activities in Japan are strictly limited to civilian use. However, they stressed this is a problem primarily for the Japanese government. This is also a problem for Japanese industry due to legal restrictions on exports. Mitsubishi is prepared to participate in the NASP Program if a framework for cooperation is developed. The company would prefer to cooperate1. Under a 1989 agreement with the United States, Mitsubishi leads a consortium to jointly develop an F- 16 derivative fighter aircraft. The FS-X project will give Japanese companies experience in several new technologies, such as manufacturing sophisticated radars and wings from composite materials. Some U.S. government officials and industry representatives believe that this exchange of technology could pose a future commercial threat to the United States.
GAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 110 with the United States. However, if that were not possible, then the company would cooperate with European countries. According to U.S. government and industry officials, areas in which Japanese technology might be incorporated in the NASP Program include advanced propulsion and advanced materials.
Japanese Cooperation With Europe and the Soviet Union
Mitsubishi and Daimler Benz are discussing possible Japanese cooperation on Germany's Saenger II two-stage-to-orbit space launch vehicle concept.[2] France's two government-owned propulsion companies, Societe Soviet Union Nationale d'Etude et de Construction de Moteurs d'Aviation, or National Company for the Study and Construction of Aviation Engines, and the Societe Europeenne de Propulsion, or European Propulsion Company, reported they would consider joining forces with the Japanese government to develop the propulsion system for the next-generation super sonic transport aircraft. In 1989 the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry invited the United Kingdom and France to participate in a project to build a Mach 5 supersonic transport. Four Japanese manufacturers and five European manufacturers committed $17 million to an initial research effort. The Ministry opened its National Research and Development Program to foreign companies beginning in Japan fiscal year 1989. The New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization and four foreign companies discussed a contract concerning their participation in the research and development of a supersonic and hypersonic transport propulsion system. This effort is one of the Large-Scale Projects supported by the Ministry. A recent agreement between the Organization and the foreign companies will contract some of the research and development work to the foreign companies. According to the Ministry, the technical results of this Japanese government-funded project will be shared among the foreign companies and contribute to technology development in the field of aeroengines. Finally, according to the Ministry, this project is expected to set a precedent that will further international collaboration in the development of innovative technologies. Science and Technology Agency and European Space Agency administrators meet annually to discuss Japanese and European space activities. According to National Space Development Agency of Japan2. Germany's Advanced European Space Transportation System Saenger II is discussed in our report on aerospace investment in Europe.
GAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 111 officials, these meetings resulted in the formation in 1987 of a Working Group on Space Transportation Systems. The Science and Technology Agency has overall coordination responsibility for the Working Group. The Japanese provide the Europeans with information about H-II and HOPE activities, while the Europeans share information with the Japanese on the European Space Agency's Ariane 5 and Hermes. Soviet officials visited Japan in July 1989 to discuss cooperative space ventures, including joint development of an aerospace plane. Representatives from the Soviet space agency GLAVKOSMOS,[3] the Space/Industry Corporation, and the Technology Export-Import Corporation met with officials from the Society of Japanese Aerospace Companies and the National Space Development Agency of Japan. The Soviets are interested in cooperating on hypersonic technology leading toward the development of a single-stage-to-orbit aerospace plane. According to a Space Development Agency official, the Japanese were not interested in cooperating with the Soviets, since this type of joint program would violate multilateral export control agreements on the transfer of Western technology to the Soviet Union. Currently, Japan and the Soviet Union are not cooperating on the development of enabling technologies for an aerospace plane. However, Japan and the Soviet Union jointly conduct a computational fluid dynamics conference every other year.
International Collaboration Among Foreign Aerospace Plane Programs
Although the United States is ahead of Japan in developing the technologies for an air-breathing single-stage-to-orbit aerospace plane, a significant international collaborative effort in hypersonics involving Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and/or the Soviet Union could be competitive with the NASP Program. The combined convergence of national interests, expertise, approaches, funding, and sharing of test facilities in such a cooperative effort could, in the long term, seriously challenge U.S. leadership and preeminence in hypersonics. Japan has been pursuing joint ventures in aeronautics and aerospace for a number of years. To date, cooperation between Japan and Europe has not been significant. According to a National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ames Research Center official, the Soviet Union appears3.GLAVKOSMOS is a Russian acronym that stands for Soviet Main Administration for the Development and Utilization of Space Technology for the National Economy and Research. It was established in 1985 to (1) exploit space technology, (2) facilitate commercialization, (3) coordinate space operations, and (4) promote international cooperation.
GAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 112 to be aggressively developing joint efforts with European countries. The official said if the ongoing Interim Horizontal Takeoff and Landing (HOTOL)[4] vehicle project between British Aerospace and the Soviet Ministry of Aviation Industry is successful, then further Soviet collaboration in hypersonics with European countries and/or Japan may be more likely. This collective capability could serve to significantly erode U.S. leadership in hypersonics in a very short time. The official also noted that the combination of European and Soviet skills, experimental test facilities, and Japanese supercomputers could possibly lead to the development of a European/Soviet aerospace plane that would constitute an awesome challenge to the United States. Prospects for international collaboration with the United States are not imminent. Another National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ames Research Center official said the Japanese and Europeans will follow whatever decision the United States makes regarding an aerospace plane. If the United States decides to build NASP, then the Japanese and Europeans will immediately initiate a program of their own, probably a collaborative program. The official added the aerospace plane programs the Japanese and Europeans currently have will allow them to initiate a collaborative program.
4. An interim version of HOTOL is being designed to be air-launched by the Soviet Union's Antonov An-225 heavy-lift transport aircraft. Both HOTOL and Interim HOTOL are discussed in our report on aerospace investment in Europe.
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