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GAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 89
Chapter 5
U.S. and Japanese Investment in Aerospace Vehicle Research and
Technological Development Efforts
Although directly comparable data for U.S. and Japanese
investment in aerospace vehicle research and technological
development efforts are not available, funding levels and the
number of people involved indicate that U.S. investment in the
NASP Program in these areas far exceeds that of Japan in its
aerospace vehicle programs. Moreover, planned funding and
personnel levels indicate that U.S. investment in the NASP
Program will continue to exceed that of Japan in its programs.
U.S. Investment in the NASP Program
The NASP Program is expected to cost more than $5 billion between fiscal years 1986 and 1997, according to the NASP Joint Program Office. The United States has spent about $1.8 billion in the NASP Program between fiscal years 1986 and 1990. Of this amount, the U.S. government has invested about $1.1 billion and U.S. industry about $736 million. According to the NASP Joint Program Office, more than 5,500 people in government, industry, and academia are working on the NASP Program. The U.S. government also plans to spend about $864 million on the NASP Program from fiscal years 1991 to 1993-and a considerably larger amount in subsequent years if a decision is made to build and flight test the X-30. However, planned funding for Phase III of the NASP Program (fiscal years 1993 to 1999) to build and flight test the X-30 experimental vehicle has not yet been determined. As of September 1991, no total NASP Program cost figure was available. However, the NASP Joint Program Office is conducting a cost estimate of Phase III and expects to report that figure to the Congress in March 1992. Future U.S. industry contributions, however, are expected to be marginal, according to a NASP Interagency Office official, since a national contractor team[l] has been established and companies are no longer in competition.Japanese Government, Industry, and University Investment
The Japanese government has spent about $127.9 million and Japanese has provided an additional $22.5 million on aerospace vehicle and research and development efforts between Japan fiscal years 1982 and 1990. The Japanese government plans to spend about $3.4 billion between Japan fiscal years 1988 and 1999 on aerospace vehicle research and development. This figure includes about $2.73 billion for the HOPE spaceplane. Between Japan fiscal years 1990 and 1996, an additional $41.8 million is expected to be provided by Japanese industry. According to National Aerospace Laboratory officials, foreign government and industry officials have a perception that Japan has almost unlimited resources for developing a spaceplane and that the Japanese are working on many spaceplane programs simultaneously. According to Laboratory officials, current Japanese government and industry funding for spaceplane research and development is limited. Current spaceplane proposals are viewed by the Japanese government ministries that must approve them as being too expensive. The three Japanese spaceplane programs are concept or system studies conducted in national space agencies, institutes, and laboratories. Moreover, only the research phase for HOPE has been authorized. HIMES and the single-stage-to-orbit aerospace plane concept have not been approved by the Japanese government. Funding for spaceplane research and development in Japan over a 15-year period between 1986 and 2000 represents only 5 to 6 percent of the Japanese government's planned investment in all space activities. Preliminary and informal discussions have taken place within the Science and Technology Agency's Spaceplane Study Group regarding the funding of various Japanese spaceplane projects over a 15-year period from 1986 to 2000. According to the Science and Technology Agency, all Japanese spaceplane projects over this 15-year period could cost between $2.3 billion and $3.1 billion. According to a 1987 study prepared by the Japanese Consultative Committee on Long Term Policy for the Space Activities Commission, Japanese government investment in research and development of all Japanese space activities between 1986 and 2000 could total about $46.8 billion. Agency officials explained in addition to developing operational spaceplanes, these activities include development of rocket boosters, tracking and data acquisition stations, Japanese participation in the planned U.S. space station, low earth orbit manned platforms and1. ln May 1990 the Department of Defense and National Aeronautics and Space Administration approved a proposal by the five NASP prime contractors to form a single NASP team. The national contractor team consists of General Dynamics Corporation (airframe development), McDonnell Douglas Corporation (airframe development), Rockwell International Corporation's North American Aviation Division (airframe development), Rockwell International Corporation's Rocketdyne Division (engine development), and United Technology Corporation's Pratt & Whitney (engine development). The National Program Office was also established to integrate the contractor team's work and serve as a single point-of-contact for the government with the contractor team on contractual and technical matters.
GAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 91 co-orbiting platforms, a space factory, a space telescope, an orbital service vehicle, polar orbit earth observation satellites, a polar orbiting platform, an orbital transfer vehicle, geostationary meteorological satellites, communication and broadcasting satellites, a geostationary platform, data relay tracking satellites, and a deep space probe (see fig. 2.1) . The study also estimates Japanese industry will probably invest about $24 billion over the same 15-year period. Thus, Japanese government and industry investment in Japan's entire space infrastructure could total about $70.8 billion between 1986 and 2000. The Director for Space Transportation Research in the Science and Technology Agency stressed that the purpose of the study by the Japanese Consultative Committee on Long Term Policy was to predict future Japanese space activities with cost estimates-and not to prescribe future Japanese space activities. The High Commissioner of the Space Activities Commission said the content of the study's report, including future plans and cost estimates, has not affected Japanese space policy, since the nature of the study's report was only to predict future Japanese space activity. The High Commissioner and Director said no Japanese government organization, including the Space Activities Commission, has ever officially indicated cost estimates for future Japanese space activities.
National Space Development Agency of Japan
The National Space Development Agency of Japan has an annual budget of about $1 billion. Although its budget has increased about 10 percent annually since Japan fiscal year 1987, Space Development Agency officials believe even a 10-percent annual increase is not enough to complete its future projects. The Director of the Space Activities Planning Division at the Science and Technology Agency indicated the Space Development Agency has invested about $3.7 million between Japan fiscal years 1986 and 1988 in the HOPE program. He estimates the total HOPE program will cost about $2.3 billion. HOPE program managers, on the other hand, estimate the spaceplane program through its first scheduled flight in 1998 could cost about $3 billion. HOPE'S total cost has not yet been officially determined. The Space Development Agency's budget in Japan fiscal year 1990 is almost $1.1 billion, of which about $905 million, or about 82 percent, is funded by the Science and Technology Agency. This figure includes about $156 million from other quasi-government agencies. The Space Development Agency requested about $ 1 billion for Japan fiscal yearGAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 92 1991 from the Science and Technology Agency and about $124 million from other government sources, for a total of about $ 1.1 billion. The Science and Technology Agency provided about $3.1 million in Japan fiscal year 1990 to the Space Development Agency's budget for HOPE. In 1988 the Space Development Agency had 938 personnel, including 468 staff at its Tokyo headquarters. As of November 1988, 30 full-time people were working on spaceplane studies at the Agency's Tsukuba Space Center. The Agency's research and development centers include the Tanegashima Space Center, Tsukuba Space Center, the Kakuda Propulsion Center, and the Earth Observation Center. The Tanegashima Space Center is Japan's major launch facility. The Takesaki range handles small rocket launches, the Osaki range is used for H-I satellite launches, and the Yoshinobu Launch Complex (currently under construction) will be used for future H-II launches of satellites and the HOPE spaceplane. Other space center facilities include the Masuda tracking data acquisition station, Nogi radar station, and Uchugaoka radar station. The Center also conducts combustion tests for solid rocket motors and liquid rocket engines. The Tsukuba Space Center, with 232 Space Development Agency employees and 150 contractor personnel as of November 1988, is responsible for research and development of space technologies and engineering tests of satellites and launch vehicles. The Kakuda Propulsion Center develops and tests propulsion systems for launch vehicles. The Earth Observation Center receives and processes remote sensing data transmitted from earth observation satellites.
Institute of Space and Astronautical Science
The Institute of Space and Astronautical Science budget for Japan fiscal year 1989 totaled about $150 million. This figure represents about 13.6 percent of the $1.1 billion total space development budget in Japan. Institute officials would like the Institute's share of the Japanese government's budget allocated to science increased to about 15 percent. However, several researchers in the Institute commented that the Institute is a "maverick" institution and its relative modest budget and academic profile allow it to plan its missions on scientific rather than political requirements. Between Japan fiscal years 1982 and 1988, the Institute spent about $16.9 million on research and development of a winged vehicle. Of thisGAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 93 amount, about $6.7 million was spent on the winged vehicle configuration and about $10.2 million on the propulsion systems. The Institute spent about $4 million between Japan fiscal years 1989 and 1990 on these activities for HIMES. At the time of our visit, Institute of ficials said they expected to spend about $20 million during each of the next 6 Japan fiscal years (or about $ 120 million between Japan fiscal years 1989 and 1995) on HIMES until its first scheduled flight in 1997. As of March 1991, however, this plan had not yet been approved. This investment includes propulsion system development. Researchers in the Institute commented they are still requesting funding to build a HIMES prototype. The Institute is investing about $24 million for construction of new test facilities. These include transonic and supersonic wind tunnels at its Sagamihara facility. The Institute is headquartered in Sagamihara and, as of 1989, had a total of 291 staff members, including 30 professors, 27 associate professors, 23 visiting professors and associate professors, 49 research associates, and 162 administrative staff and technicians. In addition, the Institute had 97 graduate students and 8 research students. The Institute operates the Kagoshima Space Center, the Noshiro Testing Center, Sanriku Balloon Center, Usuda Deep Space Center, and Space Data Analysis Center and Space Utilization Research Center at Sagamihara.
National Aerospace Laboratory
The National Aerospace Laboratory's total budget for Japan fiscal year 1990 was about $68.8 million. Its aeronautical and space technology budget for Japan fiscal year 1989, for example, was about $69.6 million, of which about $22.3 million was allocated for research, about $21.6 million for personnel, and about $25.9 million for facilities. Although the Laboratory's overall budget has been relatively flat since Japan fiscal year 1982, Laboratory officials expect significant near-term growth. The amount allocated for facilities has shown a major increase since Japan fiscal year 1982. The Laboratory invested about $15.8 million in research and development of enabling technologies for an aerospace plane between Japan fiscal years 1987 and 1989. This includes about $10.6 million for materials, about $4.2 million for propulsion, about $600,000 for aerodynamics, about $100,000 for control, about $300,000 for systems, and about $100,000 for numerical simulation. In Japan fiscal year 1989,GAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 94 the Laboratory requested about $ 11.9 million for its Innovative Aerospace Transportation Research and Development program. In Japan fiscal years 1989 and 1990, the Laboratory spent about $ 10.2 million on technology development and about $ 15.7 million on system definition work for a Japanese aerospace plane. Laboratory managers said they will seek to double Japanese government funding to about $67 million in Japan fiscal year 1991 and double it again to about $133 million in Japan fiscal year 1992. Most of the Laboratory's funding for aerospace plane research since Japan fiscal year 1987 has been spent on assessing composite materials, advanced propulsion systems, and aerodynamics. According to U.S. industry officials, the Laboratory plans to spend about $357 million between Japan fiscal years 1988 and 1998 on its program to develop and build a 10-metric ton unmanned hypersonic experimental aircraft. The experimental vehicle would be used as a flying test bed for air-breathing engines. The Laboratory is headquartered in Chofu and, as of 1990, had about 450 people. This includes about 330 to 340 research personnel; about 60 conduct research on enabling technologies for an aerospace plane. Personnel are organized around key aerospace technologies such as aerodynamics, materials, computational fluid dynamics, and propulsion. The Laboratory's facilities include the Kakuda Branch, which is used primarily for research and tests on rocket and air-breathing propulsion systems. Japan's major scramjet combustion test facility is located at the Kakuda Branch. The Laboratory's Chofu Airfield Branch is responsible for aircraft research, structural tests, and wind tunnel facilities.
The Ministry of International Trade and Industry
In April 1989 the Ministry of International Trade and Industry announced an 8-year program from Japan fiscal years 1989 to 1996 totaling about $30.9 million to integrate industry research under one government program to develop Japanese high-speed (supersonic and hypersonic) commercial transport aircraft. Of the $30.9 million, the Ministry plans to spend about $20.1 million from Japan fiscal years 1989 to 1996 on a combined-cycle (turbojet/ramjet) supersonic commercial transport propulsion system and about $10.8 million on materials. Both programs are in the basic research and development stage and consist mainly of component research. According to the Ministry, the programsGAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 95 are not a project to develop a propulsion system for a commercial aircraft. The Ministry brought under its authority airframe and propulsion research being conducted by the National Aerospace Laboratory and Japanese aerospace companies. In Japan fiscal year 1989, the Ministry allocated only about $3 million to the program. Of this amount, it allocated about $473,000 for airframe research, $233,000 for propulsion, and about $2.3 million for composite materials. The Science and Technology Agency provided about $7.9 million to the National Aerospace Laboratory for construction of a ramjet test chamber high-temperature system. This project is expected to last 4 years. Ministry officials reviewed proposals in 1988 and 1989 for the construction of supersonic and hypersonic test facilities. They are not optimistic that Japanese government funding will be forthcoming. The Ministry estimated that about $6.2 billion would be required for all Japanese government test facility projects. This included wind tunnels; test chambers for heat-resistant structures, high-altitude operations, and ramjet engines; a high-speed simulator; a supersonic aircraft prototype; and a flight test facility with a 11,000-foot runway. As of March 1991, the Ministry had no proposals for the construction of supersonic and hypersonic test facilities. The Ministry has several small laboratories that conduct space-related work, but its primary role is in the promotion of future space commercial applications. Its current focus is on the development of high-speed commercial transport aircraft through international collaboration. Ministry officials told us seven people in the Ministry's Space Industry Division are involved full-time in spaceplane work. Several other Ministry employees are involved part-time.
Ministry of Education, Science, and Culture
In Japan fiscal years 1989 and 1990, the Japanese Ministry of Education, Science, and Culture funded a $130,000 study on scramjets involving 20 professors at four Japanese universities. In addition, the University of Tokyo receives about $20,000 annually from the Ministry for similar research on scramjets.Fuji Heavy Industries
Fuji received about $3.63 million in contracts from the National Space Development Agency of Japan for HOPE development activities from Japan fiscal years 1986 to 1990. The company also received what FujiGAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 96 officials described as "small contracts" from the National Aerospace Laboratory for study related to a single-stage-to-orbit aerospace plane. Fuji has invested about $3.5 million of its own funds between Japan fiscal years 1986 and 1990 in research on all aerospace plane development work, excluding facilities. During that period, the company also invested about $15 million on test facilities that can be used for a variety of purposes in addition to aerospace plane research and development. Fuji also plans to build a hypersonic wind tunnel that could cost about $7.8 million. As of February 1991, Fuji had 15,358 employees, of which 2,768 worked in the Aerospace Division. Only 20 engineers are working full-time on the HOPE project and on an aerospace plane. Another 40 engineers, working part-time, support them in functional areas.
Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries
Ishikawajima-Harima has what company officials described as two "very small contracts" with the National Aerospace Laboratory and the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science to conduct studies on the single-stage-to-orbit aerospace plane concept. Although Ishikawajima Harima investment information was proprietary, company officials indicated that Ishikawajima-Harima's own investment in aerospace plane research and development is greater than its Japanese government contracts. Company officials said National Aerospace Laboratory contracts were evenly divided among four companies (Fuji, Ishikawajima-Harima, Kawasaki, and Mitsubishi) and that the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science contracts totaled "several million yen" (tens of thousands of dollars) divided among the four companies. Ishikawajima-Harima officials did not indicate how many people were working on aerospace plane-related propulsion research and development.Kawasaki Heavy Industries
Kawasaki officials at the company's Gifu Works said the company had spent about $4 million between Japan fiscal years 1986 and 1989 on fundamental research for an aerospace plane. Company officials also said fundamental research is conducted in several different groups within the company. They added that Kawasaki plans to spend about $34 million on in-house research and development for an aerospace plane between Japan fiscal years 1990 and 1996.GAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 97 Kawasaki established a new organization within the company in August 1988 to conduct aerospace plane research and development. System study and research and development works for subsystems (such as aerodynamics, advanced materials, guidance and control, and thermal control) are carried out within this newly organized team. Kawasaki officials at the company's Tokyo headquarters told us about 25 engineers were "deeply involved" full-time in conducting research and development work on HOPE and other spaceplanes, including a singlestage-to-orbit aerospace plane. Company officials at the Gifu Works told us the 25 engineers in the design team are supported by 100 people in many other functional areas. Research and development for an airturboramjet and scramjet is underway at Kawasaki's Kobe Works.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
Mitsubishi received about $3.4 million in contracts from the National Space Development Agency of Japan between Japan fiscal years 1987 and 1989 for work on HOPE. U.s. of ficials reported problems with the LE-7 turbopump (developed by Ishikawajima-Harima) could use all of Mitsubishi's budget for aerospace plane engine development in Japan fiscal year 1990. Mitsubishi expected to receive a small contract of about $123,000 in Japan fiscal year 1989 from the National Aerospace Laboratory for work on a single-stage-to-orbit aerospace plane. Mitsubishi anticipates receiving future contracts from the Space Development Agency totaling about $702 million out of the $1.56 billion total development cost of the H-II launch vehicle. In addition, company officials expect to receive about half of the $ 117 million for each of four planned H-II operational vehicles, including launch operations for a total of about $234 million. According to Mitsubishi of ficials, as of November 1988, 60 company engineers were participating in the HOPE program. Only a few people were involved in aerospace plane activities.Japanese National Universities
Direct research efforts of the Japanese national universities are funded through an annual base budget for research activities. These funds are divided among faculty at each institution and are discretionary regarding research topics. According to Japanese Technology Evaluation Center panel members, direct financial support to individual professors in Japan for aerospace plane research is quite small. However, this can be misleading because, unlike in the United States, faculty and student salaries in Japan are generally separated from research grants. ForGAO/NSIAD-92-5 -- page 98 example, each faculty member in the Aeronautics Department at the University of Tokyo receives about $20,000 annually in research grants. A group of 20 professors at four Japanese national universities, including the University of Tokyo, received a grant of $130,000 for Japan fiscal years 1989 to 1991 to study hypersonic reactive flows in scramjets. This grant was to encourage them to funnel their base research grants into hypersonics. Panel members commented that despite the small size of the grant, Japanese faculty indicated it was a major help in building a strong research effort in hypersonics.
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