NASA's Earth Observing System: Estimated Funding Requirements (Letter
Report, 06/09/95, GAO/NSIAD-95-175).
Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO reviewed the total funding
requirements for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's
(NASA) Earth Observing System (EOS).
GAO found that: (1) EOS funding requirements would total about $33
billion for fiscal years 1991 through 2022; (2) NASA is expecting to
substantially change the EOS program in order to reduce future funding
requirements; (3) technology advancements and operational improvements
could reduce annual funding for EOS satellites by as much as 30 percent,
which drops the future EOS funding estimate to about $27 billion; and
(4) further reductions may be possible from increased collaboration with
other agencies, international partners, and the commercial sector.
--------------------------- Indexing Terms -----------------------------
REPORTNUM: NSIAD-95-175
TITLE: NASA's Earth Observing System: Estimated Funding
Requirements
DATE: 06/09/95
SUBJECT: Earth sciences research
Future budget projections
Earth resources satellites
Computerized information systems
Earth sciences data systems
Funds management
Research and development costs
Mission budgeting
Cost analysis
Interagency relations
IDENTIFIER: NASA Earth Observing System
NASA Earth Observing System Data Information System
NASA Mission to Planet Earth Program
Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment-III
Multifrequency Imaging Microwave Radiometer
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Cover
================================================================ COVER
Report to the Chairman, Committee on Science, House of
Representatives
June 1995
NASA'S EARTH OBSERVING SYSTEM -
ESTIMATED FUNDING REQUIREMENTS
GAO/NSIAD-95-175
EOS Funding
Abbreviations
=============================================================== ABBREV
EOS - Earth Observing System
EOSDIS - EOS Data and Information System
NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Letter
=============================================================== LETTER
B-261656
June 9, 1995
The Honorable Robert S. Walker
Chairman, Committee on Science
House of Representatives
Dear Mr. Chairman:
This report responds to your request that we estimate the total
funding requirements for the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration's (NASA) Earth Observing System (EOS). We are
responding to other parts of your EOS request in separate reviews.
BACKGROUND
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :1
EOS is the centerpiece of NASA's Mission to Planet Earth, whose
overall goal is to understand the total Earth system (air, water,
land, life, and their interactions) and the effects of natural and
human-induced changes on the global environment. EOS has three major
components: a system of satellites to collect 15 years of key
climate-related data; the EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS) to
operate the satellites and process, archive, and distribute the data;
and teams of scientists to develop algorithms for converting sensor
data into useful information and to conduct research using the
information.
According to NASA's 1995 Mission to Planet Earth/Earth Observing
System Reference Handbook, the baseline program will involve three
series of primary satellite missions and several smaller missions.
There are also some joint missions planned with other nations. To
obtain 15-year data sets, each of the primary missions will include a
series of three satellites. Most of the smaller missions and
cooperative missions will also be repeated three or more times,
although some may fly only once. Additional information about the
EOS satellite missions is included in appendix I.
The EOS program, initiated in fiscal year 1991, will span 32 years.
As currently planned, the first satellite carrying EOS instruments
will begin operations in 1997 and the last satellite will cease
operations in 2020. Processing data and conducting research will
continue for another 2 years, through 2022. NASA has budgeted $2.6
billion through fiscal year 1995 for EOS and requested about $1
billion for fiscal year 1996.
RESULTS IN BRIEF
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :2
We estimated that funding requirements for the EOS baseline program
would total about $33 billion for fiscal years 1991-2022. NASA is
studying ways to reduce future EOS funding requirements and expects
to substantially change the baseline program when these studies are
completed in July 1995. According to NASA officials, preliminary
results of these studies indicate that technology development and
operational improvements could reduce annual funding for the second
and third satellites in each series by as much as 30 percent. If
NASA were able to reduce annual funding by 30 percent in future
years, our estimate of total funding requirements drops to $27
billion. NASA officials believe that further reductions may be
possible from increased collaboration with other agencies,
international partners, and the commercial sector. It remains to be
seen whether NASA will be able to achieve the level of reductions
being discussed.
LIFE-CYCLE FUNDING ESTIMATE FOR
EOS BASELINE PROGRAM
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :3
Our life-cycle estimate of $33 billion represents the total funding
requirements for fiscal years 1991-2022 in current dollars; the
figure includes estimated inflation.\1 The total estimated funding
requirements in constant 1995 dollars, which does not include
estimated future years' inflation, is $21 billion. The estimate
includes funding for satellites, launch services, EOSDIS, science,
construction of facilities, and civil service personnel.
The EOS baseline assumes that the initial set of satellites will be
repeated with no substantial changes to the spacecraft or
instruments. The satellite segment accounts for about 35 percent of
the total baseline funding; launch services about 4 percent; EOSDIS
about 27 percent; science and algorithms about 31 percent; civil
service personnel about 4 percent; and other elements, such as
construction of facilities, less than 1 percent.
Figure 1 shows our estimate of annual funding requirements for the
EOS baseline through fiscal year 2022. The annual funding estimate
through fiscal year 2000 is based on NASA's projections in the
President's fiscal year 1996 budget. NASA's budget projections are
included in appendix II. Our estimate includes adjustments to NASA's
budget estimates to reflect a $100-million reduction resulting from
NASA's recently completed agencywide review of operations and the
addition of funding for civil service personnel working on the
program. After fiscal year 2000, the figure reflects our estimate of
annual funding requirements.
Funding requirements rise sharply during the early years leading up
to the launch of the first satellite in 1998. The continued rise in
funding through 2010 reflects the period where NASA will fund most of
the production, launch, and operation of the EOS satellites. After
2010, funding requirements for science, EOSDIS, and civil service
personnel will gradually decline as individual satellite missions are
completed.
Figure 1: Estimated Annual
Funding Requirements for the >
EOS Baseline (Current dollars
in millions)
(See figure in printed
edition.)
NASA officials believe that funding estimates for the EOS program
should extend to 2019 rather than 2022. This is based on the fact
that the last 15-year data set will be obtained by 2017, followed by
another 2 years of processing and research. We have presented
estimated funding requirements through 2022 because EOS satellites
will continue to operate and collect data through 2020, EOSDIS will
continue to process the data beyond that, and the scientific research
begun under EOS will continue for another 2 years.
--------------------
\1 Unless otherwise noted, dollar amounts are in current dollars that
include estimated future years' inflation based on an index provided
by NASA. NASA's index reflects estimated price increases in the
aerospace industry rather than the general economy.
NASA ACTIONS TO REDUCE FUTURE
FUNDING
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :4
NASA officials know that, in today's environment of declining budgets
for the civil space program, the baseline program described in the
1995 EOS handbook is unaffordable. Recognizing that EOS' objective
is to collect consistent long-term data sets--not to fly a particular
satellite or instrument for 15 years--NASA is studying ways to change
the baseline program and reduce future funding requirements.
According to NASA officials, preliminary results of these studies
indicate that technology development and operational improvements
could reduce annual funding for the second and third satellite
missions by as much as 30 percent. If NASA were able to reduce
annual funding by 30 percent in future years, our estimate of total
funding drops to $27 billion. NASA officials believe that further
reductions may be possible from collaboration with other agencies,
international partners, and the commercial sector. Several factors
could affect NASA's ability to achieve future reductions.
TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS AND
OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENTS
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :4.1
Technology advancements are almost certain to occur over the 32-year
life of the EOS program, but it is too early to determine the effect
these advancements will have on reducing funding requirements. A
NASA Advisory Council task force reported in February 1995 that EOS
should be an ideal candidate for advanced technology development.\2
However, the task force found little evidence that advanced
technology was being developed for and incorporated into the program.
The report also noted that NASA lacked a plan or road map for
incorporating new technology into EOS.
NASA officials expect to complete a technology plan by the end of
August 1995. To develop this plan, NASA is studying several
technology development opportunities, including reductions in the
size of spacecraft and instruments, major advancements in high
performance computing, new launch systems, and more efficient
operations. For example, some instruments benefit from making
measurements under exactly the same conditions. Currently, these
kinds of simultaneous measurements require the instruments to be
collocated on one satellite. Advanced technology and operating
techniques may allow these types of instruments to fly in close
formation on individual small satellites, potentially reducing
funding requirements and greatly increasing the flexibility to
replace individual instruments. NASA officials stressed that they
need stable funding between now and fiscal year 2000 to develop and
demonstrate the technology that will reduce future funding
requirements. NASA is also soliciting advice from outside groups and
industry on technology that could be used in the EOS program.
--------------------
\2 NASA Federal Laboratory Review, prepared by the NASA Federal
Laboratory Review Task Force, NASA Advisory Council (Feb. 1995).
INCREASED COOPERATIVE
ARRANGEMENTS
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :4.2
Collaborating with other agencies that operate Earth observing
satellites may be possible, but it is too early to tell how much this
might reduce EOS funding requirements. For example, NASA currently
plans to fly an EOS instrument on a 3-year Japanese satellite mission
to collect ocean surface wind data. It has not been determined how
follow-on missions will be accomplished and who will be responsible
for funding them. To continue this data set, NASA is exploring
options with two other agencies interested in this type of data, the
Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), and the Department of Defense. NASA and NOAA
are also reviewing the potential benefits of collocating research and
operations activities, incorporating EOS technology into NOAA weather
satellites, and combining NASA and NOAA data systems.
EOS already involves extensive international participation, and it is
unclear whether significant savings can be achieved through
additional participation. NASA is negotiating 10 cooperative
agreements with
6 different international partners, including the European Space
Agency, Japan, France, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Russia. Only
two of the agreements have been completed. None cover the 15-year
period required by EOS for long-term consistent data sets. For
example, NASA plans to fly its Stratospheric Aerosols and Gases
Experiment instrument on a Russian Meteor satellite to accomplish
what was formerly known as the AEROSOLS mission. However, the
agreement signed by the United States and Russia only covers the
flight of one EOS instrument on one Meteor, which has a mission life
of 3 years. NASA officials believe that the Russians will agree to
continue flying copies of the instrument long enough to provide the
required 15-year data set.
Finalizing and maintaining the current international partnerships
involving EOS spacecraft and instruments represents a challenge. The
Multifrequency Imaging Microwave Radiometer instrument demonstrates
both the promise and pitfalls of international cooperation. The
European Space Agency is developing this instrument for one of its
spacecraft scheduled to fly as part of an international EOS mission.
Since the inception of EOS, NASA has counted on the European Space
Agency to provide a copy of this instrument for one of NASA's primary
satellite missions. However, the Europeans recently indicated that
they may not provide the instrument for flight on NASA's satellite.
Since this instrument is essential for the NASA mission, the agency
is exploring other options. NASA has begun discussions with Japan
about providing a copy of a similar type of instrument it developed
for one of its satellites. In the event that there is not an
international contribution for this type of instrument, NASA may have
to provide the funding.
Several factors could affect NASA's ability to achieve significant
reductions. First, some instruments have not yet been assigned to a
spacecraft and are considered "flights of opportunity." NASA's
baseline program assumes that NASA will only fund the instruments for
these missions and that other requirements will be provided through
cooperative arrangements. However, if NASA is unable to find a
partner to contribute the spacecraft and launch for the missions,
NASA may have to fund these items or cancel the missions. Second, if
the introduction of new technology or increased cooperative
arrangements is delayed from the second set of satellites to the
third set, the cumulative reductions would be much smaller. Third,
most NASA spaceflight missions have historically experienced
significant increases in funding requirements from initial
estimates.\3 Even if reductions are achieved through technology
advancements, funding increases in other areas could offset these
savings.
--------------------
\3 NASA Program Costs: Space Missions Require Substantially More
Funding Than Initially Estimated (GAO/NSIAD-93-97, Dec. 31, 1992).
SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :5
To develop an estimate of total life-cycle funding requirements for
the baseline EOS program, we used NASA's estimates for the program's
initial phase and met with Mission to Planet Earth officials to
develop the assumptions used to prepare detailed estimates of each
program element through completion. For example, based on
discussions with these officials, we assumed that copies of
spacecraft and instruments required less funding than the originals
that included research and development costs. We included funding
for science, EOSDIS, and civil service personnel through 2022, 2
years beyond the end of the last satellite mission, which is a
typical practice for science missions, according to NASA.
In our current dollar estimates, we used inflation factors supplied
by NASA that represent estimated inflation in the aerospace industry,
which tends to run higher than estimated inflation for the general
economy. NASA uses this index for programs that are in the early
stages and include significant new development efforts and
uncertainties. NASA officials agreed that this is the appropriate
index to use for the EOS program. For most years covered by our
estimate, NASA's inflation index was 4.6 percent. By comparison, the
gross domestic product price index averaged 3.1 percent for 1996
through 2013. Funding for civil service personnel was inflated by a
factor of 2.1 percent, based on civilian federal pay raises projected
in the President's fiscal year 1996 budget request.
We conducted our work from January 1995 to June 1995 in accordance
with generally accepted government auditing standards. We did not
obtain official agency comments on this report. However, we
discussed a draft of this report with program officials and
incorporated their comments where appropriate.
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :5.1
As agreed with your office, unless you publicly announce its contents
earlier, we plan no further distribution of this report until 10 days
from its issue date. At that time, we will send copies to the
Ranking Minority Member, Committee on Science; the NASA
Administrator; and other appropriate congressional committees. We
will also make copies available to other interested parties upon
request.
Please contact me on (202) 512-8412 if you or your staff have any
questions concerning this report. Major contributors to this report
were Frank Degnan, Richard Eiserman, and Sandra Gove.
Sincerely yours,
David R. Warren
Director, Defense Management
and NASA Issues
EOS SATELLITE MISSIONS
=========================================================== Appendix I
According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's
(NASA) 1995 Mission to Planet Earth/Earth Observing System Reference
Handbook, the baseline program will involve three series of primary
satellite missions and several smaller missions. There are also some
joint missions planned with other nations. Under the baseline plan,
as many as 36 spacecraft would carry 80 instruments, and NASA would
provide 21 of the spacecraft and 65 of the instruments.
To obtain 15-year data sets, each of the primary missions will
include a series of three satellites. Most of the smaller missions
and cooperative missions will also be repeated three or more times,
although some may only fly once. Figure I.1 shows the satellite
missions planned under the Earth Observing System (EOS) baseline.
Table I.1 describes each mission. Descriptions of the instruments
carried by each satellite mission are in table I.2.
The primary missions have been designated AM, PM, and CHEM. Eight of
the primary satellites are planned to be medium-sized spacecraft,
with the ninth being somewhat larger. The primary satellites will
each carry three to six instruments. Smaller satellites will carry
from one to three instruments. The instruments are, for the most
part, the same for all the satellites in a series.
Several missions involve cooperative arrangements with other
countries. In these missions, other nations provide instruments for
NASA satellites or satellites for NASA instruments. NASA's
cooperative missions currently involve the European Space Agency,
Canada, Japan, France, the United Kingdom, and Russia. International
partners are involved in the AM, PM, CHEM, RadarALT, TRMM, METEOR,
and ADEOS missions shown in figure I.1.
Figure I.1: Operational
Periods for Planned EOS
Satellites
(See figure in printed
edition.)
Table I.1
Description of EOS Satellite Missions
Satellite Description
------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------
LANDSAT-7 Continues land-imaging satellite series. Future LANDSAT-
ETM+ type instrument is planned to be carried on AM-2 and AM-3.
AM Morning equator-crossing mission will study clouds,
ASTER aerosols, and radiation balance; the terrestrial ecosystem;
CERES land use; soils; terrestrial energy/moisture; tropospheric
EOSP chemical composition; volcanoes; and ocean productivity.
LATI ASTER and MOPITT are manifested on AM-1 only. EOSP and LATI
MISR are manifested for AM-2 and AM-3 only.
MODIS
MOPITT
PM Afternoon equator-crossing mission will study cloud
AIRS formation, precipitation, and radiative properties; air-sea
AMSU fluxes of energy and moisture; sea-ice extent; and ocean
CERES primary productivity. The PM series will carry instruments
MHS that are prototypes for future operational weather
MIMR/AMSR satellites.
MODIS
CHEM Chemistry mission will study atmospheric chemical
HIRDLS composition; chemistry-climate interactions; and air-sea
MLS exchange of chemicals and energy.
ODUS
TES
LaserALT Laser altimeter mission will study ice sheet mass balance.
GLAS
RadarALT Radar altimeter mission will study ocean circulation. NASA
DORIS is considering a joint mission with France.
SSALT
TMR
ISS and METEOR SAGE-III instrument carried on the International Space
SAGE-III Station and Russian METEOR satellite will study distribution
of aerosols, ozone profiles, and greenhouse gases in the
lower stratosphere.
TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission will study precipitation
CERES and Earth radiation budget in the tropics and high
LIS latitudes. TRMM is a joint mission with Japan.
ADEOS-II Japanese satellite carrying NASA scatterometer instrument
SEAWINDS will study ocean surface wind vectors.
ACRIMSAT Mission will monitor the variability of total solar
ACRIM irradiance and is currently planned to fly on a series of
small satellites.
Flight of Ocean color instrument will study ocean primary productivity
opportunity and will work in concert with AM series until PM series is
COLOR launched.
Flight of Mission will study full-disk solar ultraviolet irradiance.
opportunity
SOLSTICE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table I.2
EOS Instruments and Measurements
------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------
ACRIM Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor monitors
the variability of total solar irradiance.
AIRS Atmospheric Infrared Sounder measures atmospheric
temperature and humidity.
AMSU Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit provides atmospheric
temperature measurements.
ASTER Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection
(Japan) Radiometer provides high spacial resolution images of
the land surface, water, ice, and clouds.
CERES Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System measures
Earth's radiation budget and atmospheric radiation.
DORIS Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated
(France) by Satellite provides orbital positioning information
and ionospheric correction for SSALT.
COLOR Ocean color instrument provides measurements of the
role of oceans in the global carbon cycle and ocean
primary productivity.
EOSP Earth Observing Scanning Polarimeter globally maps
radiance and linear polarization of reflected and
scattered sunlight to obtain atmospheric aerosol
content.
ETM+ Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus provides high spatial
resolution images of the land surface, water, ice,
and clouds.
GLAS Geoscience Laser Altimeter System measures ice sheet
topography, cloud heights, and aerosol vertical
structure.
HIRDLS High-Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder observes gases
(UK-US) and aerosols in troposphere, stratosphere, and
mesosphere to assess their role in global climate
system.
LATI Landsat Advanced Technology Instrument provides high
spacial resolution images of the land surface, water,
ice, and clouds beyond Landsat ETM+.
LIS Lightning Imaging Sensor measures the distribution
and variability of lightning.
MHS Microwave Humidity Sounder provides atmospheric water
vapor profile.
MIMR Multifrequency Imaging Microwave Radiometer measures
(ESA) precipitation rate, cloud water, water vapor, sea
surface roughness, sea surface temperature, ice,
snow, and soil moisture.
MISR Multi-Angle Imaging Spectrometer measures the top-
of-the-atmosphere, cloud, and surface angular
reflectance.
MLS Microwave Limb Sounder measures thermal emissions
from the atmospheric limb.
MODIS Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer studies
biological and physical properties of terrestrial,
oceanic, atmosphere, and ecosystems.
MOPITT Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere measures
(Canada) upswelling radiance to produce tropospheric CO
profiles and total column CH4.
ODUS Ozone Dynamic Ultraviolet Sounder measures total
(Japan) atmospheric column of ozone concentraion.
SAGE III Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment provides
profiles of aerosols, ozone, and trace gases in the
mesosphere, stratosphere, and troposphere.
SEAWINDS Provides all weather measurements of ocean surface
wind speed and direction.
SOLSTICE Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Instrument
measures full disk solar ultraviolet irradiance.
SSALT Solid-State Altimeter maps the topography of the sea
(France) surface and its impact on ocean circulation.
TES Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer provides profiles
of all infrared active species from Earth's surface
to lower stratosphere.
TMR Topex Microwave Radiometer provides atmospheric water
vapor corrections for SSALT.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ADDITIONAL FUNDING INFORMATION
========================================================== Appendix II
NASA's current EOS estimate for fiscal years 1991 through 2000 is
$8.2 billion. This estimate, which is about $100 million less than
NASA's estimate in the President's fiscal year 1996 budget, reflects
reductions recently identified during NASA's agencywide review.
About $2.6 billion was budgeted through fiscal year 1995. EOS
represents about two-thirds of Mission to Planet Earth's
$12.1-billion budget for fiscal years 1991-2000. NASA's EOS estimate
includes funding for satellites, science, the EOS Data and
Information System (EOSDIS), launch services, and construction of
facilities, as shown in table II.1. NASA does not include funding
for civil service personnel in its estimate.
Table II.1
President's Fiscal Year 1996 Budget
Request for EOS
(Current dollars in millions)
Prior 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Total
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ======
AM $385.1 $198.8 $260.8 $202.2 $97.0 $107.6 $56.7 $82.6 $1,390
series .8
PM 64.3 50.1 88.8 127.3 188.2 239.8 235.7 226.1 1,220.
series 3
Chemistr 9.6 2.2 10.3 27.7 82.1 107.4 147.5 182.0 568.8
y
series
Special 40.0 20.9 85.5 69.7 92.9 95.8 89.1 93.0 586.9
spacecr
aft
Landsat 32.5 74.1 87.4 78.8 56.1 48.8 8.0 1.6 387.3
7
Algorith 91.8 46.8 58.3 85.4 122.7 154.5 200.8 221.7 982.0
m
develop
ment
EOSDIS 244.4 188.2 230.6 289.8 309.8 291.9 317.4 358.7 2,230.
8
Space 104.0 104.0
station
platfor
m
EOS 37.3 58.4 47.5 56.4 63.4 73.2 336.2
science
Launch 3.1 16.2 41.7 86.7 95.3 100.9 46.8 33.2 423.9
services
Construc 45.2 18.0 17.0 17.0 97.2
tion of
facilit
ies
Tracking 1.6 2.1 2.3 1.1 1.3 8.4
and
data
support
================================================================================
Total $1,020 $615.3 $917.7 $1,044 $1,093 $1,205 $1,166 $1,273 $8,336
.0 .6 .7 .4 .5 .4 .6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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