American Physical Society Releases New Report on US Missile Defense
Capabilities of the US missile defense systems are likely to remain low for next 15 years
American Physical Society
COLLEGE PARK, MD, February 9, 2022 — The capabilities of US systems intended to defend against the nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that North Korea may have or could obtain are currently low and will likely continue to be low for the next 15 years, according to a new technical report commissioned by the American Physical Society's Panel on Public Affairs.
Titled "Ballistic Missile Defense: Threats and Challenges," the report notes that despite decades of effort, no missile defense system thus far developed has been shown to be effective against realistic ICBM threats. ICBMs are ballistic missiles with a range of more than 3,500 nautical miles.
"With the Biden administration's review of missile defense expected later this year, it is critical to have a careful technical assessment of its capabilities that our leaders can use to more clearly evaluate the economic and security costs of pursuing missile defense systems, as well as a careful assessment of their possible benefits," said Frederick K. Lamb, chair of the study, physics professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and a missile defense expert. "Having looked at the issue in detail, we have come to the conclusion that the current US missile defense system is unreliable and ineffective against even the small number of relatively unsophisticated nuclear-armed ICBMs that we considered, and that creating a reliable and effective defense remains a daunting challenge."
The report, the work of a 13-member study group of physicists and engineers, examined whether current and proposed systems intended to defend the United States against nuclear-armed North Korean ICBMs are—or could be made—effective in preventing a successful ICBM attack by North Korea on the United States.
In preparing the report, the committee reviewed extensive government information and reports produced by various agencies, including the Government Accountability Office and the Office of the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation, and the National Academy of Sciences. The committee also studied reports by non-governmental experts and institutions.
The study aims to provide a realistic view of current US capabilities and an understanding of the prospects for being able to defend against the ICBMs North Korea might deploy within the next 15 years. The report concludes that the unreliability and vulnerability to countermeasures of the sole existing system intended to counter North Korean ICBMs - the Ground-based Midcourse Defense - means that it has limited effectiveness. Because of the difficulty of correcting these deficiencies in a timely or cost-effective way, this system cannot be expected to provide a robust or reliable defense against more than the simplest attacks by a small number of relatively unsophisticated missiles within the 15-year time horizon of this report.
Furthermore, the report finds that other systems that have been proposed, which would attempt to intercept ICBMs during their first few minutes of flight while their rocket engines are firing—called the boost phase—would face very difficult technical challenges. The report concludes that systems of this type based on land, ships, or aircraft would be unable to defend all of the continental United States. At best, a particular system could theoretically defend part of the US.
Boost-phase systems based in space would require many hundreds of weapons orbiting on space platforms to theoretically defend against a single North Korean ICBM, and thousands to defend against five ICBMs launched within a short time. This type of system would be very expensive and vulnerable to being disabled by anti-satellite weapons.
"Despite decades of work and costs totaling more than $350 billion, the United States still has not been able to field a defense that would be able to intercept even a small number of relatively unsophisticated ICBMs reliably and effectively," said Lamb. "But even the pursuit of such a defense has wider implications, including giving Russia and China reasons to expand their nuclear arsenals. The costs and benefits of this effort need to be weighed carefully."
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About APS
The American Physical Society is a nonprofit membership organization working to advance and diffuse the knowledge of physics through its outstanding research journals, scientific meetings, and education, outreach, advocacy, and international activities. APS represents more than 50,000 members, including physicists in academia, national laboratories, and industry in the United States and throughout the world.
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