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IS RUSSIA PREPARING A MISSILE SHIELD?

RIA Novosti

MOSCOW, March 10. (RIA Novosti)-It was reported yesterday that in January Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov had discussed Russia's withdrawal from the Soviet-US Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with his American counterpart, Vedomosti writes.

Donald Rumsfeld is said not to have protested Russia's hypothetical withdrawal from the treaty. However, during further talks, the Russian Foreign Ministry allegedly disavowed Mr. Ivanov's statement.

A source close to the Defense Ministry leadership said that Mr. Ivanov asked Mr. Rumsfeld's opinion about how America would react to Russia's hypothetical withdrawal from the treaty during his January visit to Washington. A political decision on the issue, however, has not been made so far.

Experts doubt that a rapid withdrawal from the treaty would be practicable. This treaty is the only agreement that prohibits an entire class of missiles, said Mr. Robert J. Einhorn, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Russia has enough weapon systems to deter any potential adversary in the next ten years, and hence does not need to create a missile shield, says Anatoly Dyakov, the director of the Russian Disarmament Center.

Observers do not expect Russia to be punished with sanctions if it withdraws from the INF treaty. This will not pose a threat to NATO, as the Russian military most probably intend to use intermediate-range missiles with conventional warheads for strikes at terrorist bases in the south.

Experts believe maintaining these missiles will be cheaper than restoring the combat ability of its air fleet and ground forces. Russia has the technical capabilities to resume the designing and construction of missiles.

Under the 1987 INF treaty, Russia and the USA destroyed over 2,000 missiles with a range of between 500km and 5,500km. The treaty also prohibits work to design and produce such missiles. According to Article 15, the parties may withdraw from the treaty after notifying the other party of this intention six months in advance.