DATE=5/30/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=MISSILE DEFENSE-THREE
NUMBER=5-46403
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Whether or not it works as intended, critics
worry that a proposed U-S ballistic missile defense
system could prompt a nuclear arms race. The critics
fear Russia and China might be sufficiently worried to
add to their offensive weapons, and thus to global
nuclear instability. Supporters of a U-S missile
defense project say the reaction of these nuclear
powers would be much more limited. In the final
segment of a three-part series, V-O-A's Ed Warner
reports on these differing views.
TEXT: China says a U-S missile defense system would
neutralize its small nuclear arsenal. So it would
have no choice but to add to its offensive nuclear
weapons aimed at the United States.
Washington says its proposed missile defense system is
designed to shoot down missiles from rogue states such
as North Korea. Beijing replies that is nice to hear,
but that it cannot rely on American assurances alone.
Kurt Gottfried is chairman of the Union of Concerned
Scientists and professor of physics at Cornell
University. He says China has a point:
/// Gottfried Act ///
I think that Korea is a stalking horse (EDS:
pretext for a much bigger system). In fact, I
think some people have explicitly said that the
objective is a large system which will defend
against any foreseeable enemy, in particular
China. There will be a new national
intelligence estimate that if we deploy the
national missiles defense system, China will
accelerate its build-up of strategic weapons,
even if we just deploy a system that is aimed at
Korea.
/// End Act ///
China is a modernizing power intent on building up its
nuclear force, says Barry Blechman, chairman of
Washington's Stimson Center. It will do this
regardless of a U-S missile defense system:
/// Blechman Act ///
China has a very small force of very old
missiles, which are obsolete and do not now
constitute a reliable deterrence. They
apparently stole plans from us for more modern
weapons and have tested them and are in the
midst of a development program which will give
them the capability to deploy a modern missile
force, and I would expect them to do that
whatever our action is.
/// End Act ///
Russia does not have the same kind of worries. It has
too many nuclear weapons to be overcome by the planned
U-S defense system.
Robert Kagan-- a senior associate at Carnegie
Endowment, another Washington policy research group,
says the Russian reaction may be a matter of
economics. Moscow will have to decide how much it
wants to spend to upgrade its force as a counter
measure to a U-S defense:
/// Kagan Act ///
Given the size of the system that the current
administration is contemplating at any rate,
there is really no need for them to take any
measures. They already will have enough weapons
to overwhelm the contemplated American system,
and as cash-strapped as Russia is right now, I
find it hard to believe they will want to spend
the kind of money necessary to upgrade their
nuclear program.
/// End Act ///
Many U-S supporters of ballistic missile defense
insist they want to work as closely as possible with
Russia on development of the system. They think that
should ease Russian fears.
Barry Blechman says this cooperation can start now:
/// Blechman Act ///
Immediately, we can begin discussions with them
about what this new framework would look like.
We can begin to establish a system to share
early warning data -- satellite information from
their systems and our systems that monitor when
missiles are launched. Over time, if we
establish friendly relations with them -- which
is our goal, after all -- then we could move to
a single global system, which tries to protect
everybody.
/// End Act ///
Mr. Blechman says an ideal world would have as few
nuclear weapons as possible and secure defenses
against them. (Signed)
NEB/EW/JP
30-May-2000 13:42 PM EDT (30-May-2000 1742 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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