DATE=3/17/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42878
TITLE=TOWARD A MISSILE DEFENSE
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRODUCTION: PRESIDENT CLINTON AND THE U-S CONGRESS HAVE AGREED
ON LEGISLATION TO ESTABLISH A DEFENSE AGAINST BALLISTIC MISSILES
AS SOON AS TECHNOLOGICALLY POSSIBLE. HOW SOON THAT CAN HAPPEN
WAS DISCUSSED BY SPEAKERS AT A RECENT MEETING IN WASHINGTON
(TUE., MAR. 15), AND ONE OF THEM SAID HE DOUBTS IT CAN EVER
HAPPEN. VOA'S ED WARNER REPORTS ON THE DISCUSSION AT THE CATO
INSTITUTE.
TEXT: THE UNITED STATES HAS LITTLE CHOICE, SAID STEVE CAMBONE OF
THE NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY IN A MEETING AT WASHINGTON'S CATO
INSTITUTE. HE INSISTED THE COUNTRY MUST BUILD A MISSILE DEFENSE
TO GUARD AGAINST A FUTURE ATTACK BY A ROGUE STATE LIKE NORTH
KOREA, LIBYA OR IRAQ:
// CAMBONE ACT //
THE DESIGN FOR DEFENSE NEEDS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT
WHAT (THE MISSILE SYSTEM) WE SEE TODAY IS NOT THE ONE WE
ARE GOING TO SEE IN 2005. THESE COUNTRIES ARE BUSILY
IMPROVING THE PERFORMANCE AND THE CAPABILITY OF THEIR
SYSTEMS. AND WHETHER WE DEPLOY OR WE DO NOT, THOSE
SYSTEMS WILL BE MUCH BETTER IN 2005 THAN THEY ARE TODAY.
// END ACT //
BUT SUCH A MISSILE DEFENSE WILL NOT WORK, SAID JOHN ISAACS,
PRESIDENT OF THE COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD, AN ORGANIZATION
DEALING WITH ARMS CONTROL:
// ISAACS ACT //
I DOUBT VERY MUCH IF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A TRULY EFFECTIVE, RELIABLE DEFENSE IN WHICH WE
CAN HAVE CONFIDENCE. AFTER MORE THAN FORTY YEARS OF
TRYING, INTERCEPTING WARHEADS STILL REMAINS A MAJOR
TECHNOLOGICAL HURDLE. AS JOINT CHIEFS CHAIRMAN (GENERAL
HENRY) SHELTON SAID RECENTLY, "TODAY WE DO NOT
TECHNOLOGICALLY HAVE A BULLET THAT CAN HIT A BULLET."
// END ACT //
MR. ISAACS SAID IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE TO DISPOSE OF
THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA, WHICH POSE A FAR GREATER THREAT TO
THE UNITED STATES THAN A SPECULATIVE ATTACK BY A ROGUE STATE.
VARIOUS CONCERNS MUST BE BALANCED, SAID STEVE ANDREASEN OF THE
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL, SPEAKING FOR THE CLINTON
ADMINISTRATION. WHILE THE UNITED STATES MOVES AHEAD WITH A
MISSILE DEFENSE, IT MUST ALSO REASSURE RUSSIA BY MAINTAINING THE
ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE TREATY AND THE SO-CALLED START PROCESS
WHICH REDUCES NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN BOTH RUSSIA AND THE UNITED
STATES:
// ANDREASON ACT //
TO DRAMATICALLY TILT IN THE DIRECTION OF ANY ONE OF
THESE THREE OBJECTIVES - START, THE ABM TREATY OR NMD
(NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE) -- AT THE EXPENSE OF THE
OTHER TWO IS AT THIS POINT IN TIME BOTH UNNECESSARY AND
UNWISE. THAT IS NOT TO SAY WE DO NOT PERCEIVE AN URGENT
NEED TO ADDRESS THE THREAT POSED BY ROGUE STATES, BUT IN
DOING SO, WE MUST NOT ABANDON PROGRAMS AND POLICIES THAT
ARE ELIMINATING THOUSANDS OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE
STATES OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION, INCLUDING RUSSIA.
// END ACT //
CHARLES PENA (PENYA), A CONSULTANT ON MISSILE DEFENSE FOR CATO
AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS, SAID A MISSILE DEFENSE SHOULD NOT BE
RUSHED OR BE OVER-AMBITIOUS. IT SHOULD BE DIRECTED AT THE ROGUE
STATE THREAT, WHICH HE SAYS IS FAR SMALLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
SOVIET ONE:
// PENA ACT //
NO MATTER WHAT WE PROJECT FOR ROGUE STATES, I DO NOT
IMAGINE THAT ANY OF THEM WILL END UP WITH ARSENALS IN
THE THOUSANDS OF WARHEADS. I WOULD CHARACTERIZE THE
EMERGING THREAT AS RELATIVELY LIMITED AND SIMPLE, AND
THEREFORE, THE APPROPRIATE RESPONSE OUGHT TO BE MEASURED
AND LIMITED AND SIMPLE.
// END ACT //
MR. PENA WARNED NOT TO EXPECT TOO MUCH FROM A MISSILE DEFENSE
SYSTEM. IT MAY GUARD AGAINST LONG RANGE MISSILES, BUT NOT AGAINST
CRUISE MISSILES OR THE KIND OF TERRORIST ATTACK THAT OCCURRED AT
THE NEW YORK TRADE CENTER. MR. PENA AND OTHER SPEAKERS
EMPHASIZED THAT DETERRENCE, DIPLOMACY AND NEGOTIATION REMAIN KEY
INGREDIENTS OF A SUCCESSFUL MISSILE DEFENSE. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/KL
17-Mar-99 11:33 AM EST (1633 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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