DATE=3/10/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42821
TITLE=SEA-BASED MISSILE DEFENSE
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: BETTER SEA THAN LAND, SAY A GROUP OF ANALYSTS WHO HAVE
JUST ISSUED A REPORT CALLING FOR A MISSILE DEFENSE DEPLOYED ON
U-S SHIPS. THEY SAY THIS WOULD BE LESS EXPENSIVE AND MORE
EFFECTIVE THAN A GROUND BASED SYSTEM AND INSIST IT IS URGENTLY
NEEDED. OTHERS DOUBT BOTH THE URGENCY AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF
SUCH A DEFENSE. V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS THE DEBATE.
TEXT: CAN THERE BE ANOTHER SURPRISE ATTACK ON PEARL HABOR,
THIS TIME NOT FROM JAPAN, BUT FROM SOME OTHER ASIAN NATION INTENT
ON DEFEATING AMERICA?
THAT IS THE FEAR OF A GROUP OF DEFENSE ANALYSTS WHO SAY THE
UNITED STATES NEEDS PROTECTION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE FROM A MISSILE
ATTACK, MOST PROBABLY FROM A SO-CALLED ROGUE NATION. THEY HAVE
ISSUED A REPORT, "DEFENDING AMERICA," WHICH PROPOSES PUTTING
INTERCEPTORS ABOARD CRUISERS AND DESTROYERS TO BRING DOWN
INCOMING MISSILES.
KIM HOLMES, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION, WHICH
SPONSORED THE REPORT, TOLD AN AUDIENCE AT THE PRESS CLUB IN
WASHINGTON THAT A SEA-BASED DEFENSE IS THE ANSWER TO A THREAT
EVEN GREATER THAN THE COLD WAR:
// HOLMES ACT //
AMERICA IS JUST FOUR YEARS AWAY FROM A NEAR TERM
SOLUTION TO THIS GLOBAL CRISIS. WE THINK THAT WE CAN
DEVELOP AND DEPLOY A SHORT TERM SYSTEM FOR LESS THAN
EIGHT BILLION DOLLARS FOR FOUR YEARS. THAT IS LESS THAN
TWO PER CENT OF THE ANNUAL DEFENSE BUDGET AND LESS THAN
HALF OF WHAT IT COSTS TO OPERATE AMERICA'S AIR TRAFFIC
CONTROL SYSTEM.
// END ACT //
CONTRIBUTORS TO THE REPORT NOTED THE INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A
SEA-BASED DEFENSE ALREADY EXISTS - THAT IS, U-S NAVAL SHIPS.
THEIR ADVANTAGE IS MOBILITY: THEY CAN QUICKLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SITE OF A POSSIBLE MISSILE LAUNCHING AND INTERCEPT IT PERHAPS IN
ITS BOOST STAGE.
AT THE SAME MEETING, ADMIRAL J. D.WILLIAMS, FORMER DIRECTOR OF
NAVAL WARFARE, SAID THE DEFENSE CAN BE TAILORED TO THE THREAT:
// WILLIAMS ACT //
WE ARE REALLY BUILDING A NATIONAL DEFENSE SYSTEM FOR A
ROGUE NATION. SO IF YOU KNOW THE CRISIS IS COMING -
WHICH WE GENERALLY DO - THEN YOU CAN POSITION THE SHIPS
WITH TWO OR THREE SHIPS TO COVER A PARTICULAR THREAT,
LET US SAY, FROM A MIDDLE EAST COUNTRY. IF YOU ARE
COVERING 360 DEGREES FOR THE WHOLE WORLD, THEN IT TAKES
MORE SHIPS. SO WE REALLY NEED TO TALK THE THREAT.
// END ACT //
ADMIRAL WILLIAMS SAID HE IS CONFIDENT THE TECHNOLOGY CAN BE
DEVELOPED FOR A SEA-BASED DEFENSE. IT IS PRIMARILY A MATTER OF
POLITICAL WILL.
JOHN PIKE, A DEFENSE ANALYST AT THE FEDERATION OF AMERICAN
SCIENTISTS, DOUBTS BOTH THE WILL AND THE TECHNOLOGY. LIKE OTHER
OPPONENTS OF A MISSILE DEFENSE, HE SAYS IT IS EXCEEDINGLY
DIFFICULT TO HIT A BULLET WITH A BULLET AND HAS NOT REALLY BEEN
DONE TO DATE:
// PIKE ACT //
EVENTUALLY, IF WE SPENT ENOUGH TIME AND MONEY WORKING ON
THIS, WE WILL BE ABLE TO HIT THE TARGETS OCCASIONALLY.
BUT WE HAVE SPENT AN AWFUL LOT OF MONEY, AN AWFUL LOT OF
TIME AND HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO HIT ANYTHING AT ALL FOR
THE TECHNOLOGY THAT THEY ARE ADVOCATING THAT WE OUGHT TO
DEPLOY. I THINK WE OUGHT TO GET SOMETHING WORKABLE
BEFORE WE START TALKING ABOUT ACTUALLY DEPLOYING IT.
// END ACT //
MR. PIKE SAYS NO MISSILE WAS LAUNCHED DURING THE COLD WAR,
DESPITE THEIR ENORMOUS NUMBERS, BECAUSE RETALIATION WOULD HAVE
BEEN SWIFT AND CERTAIN. DETERRENCE WORKED.
IT CONTINUES TO WORK, SAYS MR. PIKE. INDEED THE WORRISOME ROGUE
NATIONS HAVE ONLY A VERY SLIGHT FRACTION OF THE MILITARY POWER OF
THE SOVIET UNION:
// PIKE ACT //
IF YOU LOOK AT THE LEADERSHIP OF THOSE SO-CALLED ROGUE
STATES LIKE IRAN AND NORTH KOREA, THEY ARE ACTUALLY
FAIRLY CAUTIOUS WHEN IT COMES TO NUCLEAR ANNIHILATION.
THE UNITED STATES HAS SAID THAT IF THESE COUNTRIES
ATTACKED US WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS, WE WOULD DEVASTATE
THEIR SOCIETY. AND WHATEVER ELSE YOU SAY ABOUT THESE
LEADERS, THEY UNDERSTAND THAT RISK.
// END ACT //
LIKE THE SUPPORTERS OF A MISSILE DEFENSE, MR. PIKE IS NOT
COMPLACENT ABOUT THE MISSILE THREAT. THE QUESTION IS HOW BEST TO
DEAL WITH IT. (SIGNED)
NEB/PT
10-Mar-99 7:29 PM EST (0029 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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