Volume 12, Number 1, January 2006
Real-time Estimates in Early Detection of SARS
Simon Cauchemez,*† Pierre-Yves Boëlle,*†‡ Christl A. Donnelly,§ Neil
M Ferguson,§ Guy Thomas,*†‡ Gabriel M Leung,¶ Anthony J Hedley,¶ Roy M
Anderson,§ and Alain-Jacques Valleron*†‡
*Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Paris, France;
†Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France; ‡Assistance Publique–Hôpitaux
de Paris, Paris, France; §Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; and
¶University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's
Republic of China
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Figure 1. Application of real-time estimation to the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in Hong Kong. A) Data. B–F) Expectation (solid lines) and 95% credible intervals (dashed lines) of the real-time estimator of Rt were calculated at the end of the epidemic (B) and after a lag of 2 (C), 5 (D), 10 (E), and 20 (F) days. The gray zones indicate that R is <1. |
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