Between a Rock and a Hard Place: The United States, Mexico, and the Agony of National Security
by Dr. Donald E. Schulz.
June 01, 1997
42 Pages
Brief Synopsis
This Special Report contains an account of a conference on "The Challenge of Haiti's Future," sponsored by the U.S. Army War College, Georgetown University, and the Inter-American Dialogue, and held on February 10-11, 1997, on Capitol Hill, Washington, DC. The participants at the meeting addressed three broad issues: social and economic advance in Haiti, achieving democracy and the rule of law, and the role of the United States and the international community in Haiti. Conferees set forth numerous specific observations and policy recommendations. Recurring themes centered on the continuing need for almost universal reforms; the need to manage expectations among all actors, both Haitian and foreign; the need to assist Haitians to participate more effectively in political and economic decision making processes; and the need for organized and integrated, long-term, outside involvement, and support for sustainable development. Haiti's nascent and fragile democracy remains at risk. The United States and the international community have critical choices to make about the nature, extent, and longevity of their efforts in the country. On the one hand, the task of fostering a stable government, economic growth, and domestic security faces daunting obstacles, perhaps not ever fully amenable to foreign resolution. On the other, the cost of giving up includes the prospect of a breakdown of public order and possible reversion to the state of affairs that triggered intervention in the first place. The conference report which follows makes clear just how difficult a problem the situation in Haiti poses for decision makers in and out of that country.
Summary
This study analyses the changing nature of U.S.-Mexican national security issues, with a focus on narcotrafficking, the growing militarization of Mexico's counterdrug and police institutions, the danger of spreading guerrilla war, and the prospects of political and economic instability. The conclusion is that Mexico is in the midst of an extended period of transition in which it is extremely vulnerable to disruption on several different fronts simultaneously. While the economy has largely recovered from the 1994-95 peso crisis, it remains both fragile and volatile. Although much progress has been achieved in democratization, there is still a long way to go. Both political and criminal violence are growing. A new guerrilla group has appeared which may prove to be more troublesome than the Zapatistas. At the same time, the drug cartels are increasingly targeting law enforcement officers for assassination.
In response to this growing lawlessness, the Mexican government has turned to the military for support in the struggles against narcotrafficking, insurgency, and common crime. Law enforcement is being increasingly militarized. While the immediate benefits of the strategy make it tempting, the costs and risks are considerable, especially as they relate to the growing vulnerability of the armed forces to corruption, the increased likelihood of human rights violations, and the potential for undermining Mexican democracy. Unless a major longterm effort is made to foster police and judicial reform, militarization may turn out to be a semipermanent feature of the emerging new political system.
Within this context, the author argues that the United States should provide, and encourage other governments to provide, Mexico with the assistance it needs to strengthen civilian institutions and gradually reverse the militarization process. Meanwhile, care should be taken to make sure that U.S. counternarcotics aid is used for the purposes intended. When human rights violations, electoral fraud, or other abuses occur, the United States should forcefully exert its influence, but primarily through private diplomacy rather than public demonstrations like the annual certification ritual. Indeed, the author suggests that certification has become counterproductive and should be abolished.
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